Port Cargo Research Articles

Algorithm Design of Port Cargo Throughput Forecast Based on the ES‐Markov Model

At present, the existing prediction algorithm of a port cargo throughput neglects the correction of the initial value of the cargo series data model, which leads to a large error in a port cargo throughput prediction. Therefore, a prediction algorithm of a port cargo throughput based on the ES‐Markov model is designed. A decompose function is used to decompose the time series of a port cargo throughput, and the trend elements of a port cargo throughput are divided into long‐term trend, seasonal trend, fluctuation trend, and irregular trend. In this study, the ES‐Markov model is introduced, and the initial prediction is obtained by using the cubic exponential smoothing method, and the state transition matrix is obtained by the Markov principle. Based on the results of the time‐series analysis and the ES‐Markov model, the prediction algorithm of a port cargo throughput is designed. In the experimental design, the Elman neural network is used to construct an experimental sample data model. The monthly cargo throughput data of a certain port for eight months from May 2020 to December 2020 are collected and sorted according to the time series. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the proposed algorithm are closer to the actual value and the fluctuation of the prediction results is less than that of the reference.

Spatial expansion regular pattern and driving factors of estuarine and coastal harbors

The port coastline is an important part of China's coastal zone, and changes to the port space and coastline profoundly impact the management and governance of China's coastal zone. Although port space has been widely examined, the regular pattern and driving factors of coastal port space expansion from a land use patch perspective remain unclear. We selected typical estuarine and coastal harbors and analyzed the basic regularity and driving factors of their spatial expansion using remote sensing and geographic information system technology. The regular patterns of estuarine and coastal harbors showed that because of their different locations, estuarine harbors have experienced an estuarine harbor stage, coexistence stage in estuarine and coastal harbors, and deep-water harbor stage. Furthermore, coastal harbors have experienced a coastal harbor stage, urban fringe, and deep-water harbor stage. Berths at ports, wharf lengths, port areas, port scopes, and port cargo demands also show phased characteristics. Analysis of the driving factors showed that in the early stage of port formation, geographical location significantly impacts estuarine harbors, with less pronounced effects on coastal harbors. Cargo demand has significant effects on the entire port expansion process. The influence of port engineering technology on coastal harbors was greater than that on estuarine harbors during the rapid port expansion stage. The impact of large-scale ships on estuarine harbors was greater than that on coastal harbors. This study provides information on port spatial expansion theories, which can aid port enterprises to better understand the regular pattern and driving factors of port development to improve development plans. Our findings also provide a reference for governmental agencies at all levels to formulate port planning, promulgate management policies, and provide basic data for future port and urban development in China.

Prediction Study of Tianjin Port Throughput Based on GM (1, 1) Extended Model

Tianjin Port is the largest comprehensive main hub port and one of the main transshipment ports for energy and raw materials transportation in northern China. It has freight business with many countries. At the same time, Tianjin Port is the first port to carry out international maritime container transportation in China’s coastal areas. Tianjin Port was built in the 1950s, and the container business has been started since 1973, In recent years, with the rapid development of large-scale, intensive and intelligent container ships in Tianjin Port, cargo throughput is an important indicator in the comprehensive evaluation of port development, which represents the development level of a port. At the same time, it also brings new tasks to the navigation guarantee work, in particular, it puts forward systematic requirements for port and wharf construction, navigation aids layout, navigation aids efficiency display and navigation aids base layout. The annual throughput of port cargo or container is one of the bases of world ports. As an output index, port enterprises, shipping companies, navigation guarantee departments and shipping economic analysis departments attach great importance to it. Therefore, the prediction of Tianjin Port cargo throughput can provide reference for Tianjin Port’s next development planning, waterway use and navigation guarantee planning and layout, navigation aids setting, wharf construction, route mapping, etc. the article constructs of Tianjin Port. The average error is 0.29%, and the prediction accuracy is first class. This model can better predict the change trend of cargo for Tianjin Port, which is a better way to analyze the change trend for Tianjin port.

Cargo port choice equilibrium: A multi-perspective look at shippers’ port choice

Traditionally, cargo port choice has been investigated from the perspective of port users. More recently, studies on cargo port choice from the perspective of the port service providers have appeared. Irrespective of the perspective taken, the common element in these studies is that they focus on one perspective at a time. In this paper, it is postulated that cargo port choice should really be examined from both perspectives, simultaneously, as cargo port choice is made by both users and providers of cargo port services. The port users we will focus on in this paper are the shippers. To model this simultaneous choice, a new modeling framework is proposed, i.e. cargo port choice equilibrium. This new framework enables policy makers and other maritime industry stakeholders to evaluate the network-wide impact (i.e. across all cargo ports) of a range of policy measures while considering the choices by both shippers and port service providers. One key consequence of our equilibrium model is that prior findings in the port choice literature might no longer be valid without further qualifications. Overall, this paper generalizes, unifies and extends a segment of the port choice literature.

Environmental Issues of European Cargo Ports

Sea ports and the shipping industry are crucial elements of the international supply chain. Over the last years there has been a growing awareness on the environmental impact of port operations and development. The development of port industry can have a substantial environmental impact. Sustainability is expressed in economic, environmental, and social dimension. The major impacts are on air pollution and especially greenhouse gas emission, the water pollution and the health effects. International policy instruments and governments are crucial factors defining the actions of ports, which are expected to enhance environmental management and reduce the harm of shipping activities. This paper focuses on the environmental dimension and the attempts to reduce the GHG emissions in line with the Paris Agreement and the 2030 UN SDGs. The attention of European Union regulatory environmental framework is laid in the reduction in the sulphur content of certain liquid fuels, the framework for port reception facilities for the delivery of waste from ships, and the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure. The European Green Deal aims to a 90% reduction in the transport emissions by 2050.

CHERNOBYL EXCLUSION ZONE AS A UNIQUE TOURIST DESTINATION

The publication highlights the features of the Chernobyl tourism product. The most attractive objects in the exclusion zone are characterized and singled out, which include: Pripyat; Chernobyl observation deck and sarcophagus; secret radar station "Duga" (Chernobyl-2); red forest; kindergarten in Kopachi; cooling tower; abandoned cargo port.
 It have been found that the release of a number of documentaries and the HBO series "Chernobyl", numerous computer games, including STALKER and Isotopium, simplification of the visit to the zone are main factors that influencing the development of tourism in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. It is established that the number of visitors to the "exclusion zone" of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant for the period from 2015 to 2019 has been increased extremely rapidly. If we compare the flow of visitors from 2015 to 2019, we can see an increase from 8 to 124 thousands. It has been discovered that in 2019, 80% of tourists were foreigners. It has been investigated that in 2020 there was a decrease in the flow of tourists, which was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
 It is estimated that the volume of services provided by tour operators made on the basis of the cost of Chernobyl Tour services in 2019 amounted to approximately 11 million USD. This, in turn, confirms the popularity of this tourist destination, both among domestic and foreign tourists and thus brings good profits.
 Current tourist and excursion routes have been considered. Chernobyl routes are usually standard. Tourists usually get from the checkpoint to Chernobyl, then the nuclear power plant, Pripyat, one of the villages where the natives returned, dinner in Chernobyl and return to Kiev. Currently, 22 routes are officially registered, including five water, three air, one bicycle and 13 bus routes. An author’s tourist route to the art objects of Pripyat has been developed, where you can simultaneously see and feel the atmosphere of the Soviet times, the impact and consequences of the man-made catastrophe and make content against the breathtaking graffiti.
 Research has been conducted in the form of a survey of potential tourists to establish a portrait of the consumer of this tourist product. 178 people took part in this survey, including 117 (65,7%) women and 61 (34,3%) men. According to the results of the survey, it can be concluded that tours to the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone are interesting mostly for young people and adults aged 19 to 35, who have an average monthly income from 5 to 15 thousand UAH.
 The main problems of tourism development of the study have been considered. Among the most sufficient finding for the development is not only tourism, but also the area as a whole. Under tourist developed infrastructure and unsatisfactory of security services organization, which causes illegal entry into the exclusion zone of stackers. Another problem in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone is forest fires, which causes huge damage, including tourism. As a result of the 2020 fires, the territories of the former villages of Leliv, Kopachi, Poliske, Grezlya, Rudnya-Grezlyanska, Kovshylivka, Varovychi, Buda-Varovychi, Martynovychi, Smaragdovy, Volkhov, Chistogalivka burned down, the territory of the Red Forest burned down, the pioneer camp "Kazovekovy" Chernobyl-2, the city of Chernobyl has been affected. As a result, a unique objects on tourist routes has been lost.
 Among the prospects for the development of tourism in the Chernobyl zone can be noted the introduction and improvement water and air routes, the creation of various quests, arrangement of places for sport fishing and photo hunting. Good prospects for the tourism development in the exclusion zone will have the following types of tourism: extreme, scientific, environmental, nostalgic, industrial, nuclear or dark. Effective use of tourism potential is one of them aim prior the development of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.
 Keywords: tourism, Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, attractiveness, tourist resources.

Prediction of Chinese Port Cargo Volume Based on BP Algorithm

With the implementation of maritime power strategy, China attaches more and more importance to port economy. As a powerful indicator to measure Marine economy, port cargo volume can reflect whether the effectiveness of port construction in China is remarkable at the present stage. In this study, the author takes the cargo volume data of China’s ports from 2010 to 2017 as the training data, and predicts the cargo volume of a January in 2018 and 2019 based on the time series method combined with BP neural network to determine the feasibility of the prediction model.

Research on Shanghai Port Logistics Based on VAR Model

This article mainly analyzes how to use the vector autoregressive VAR model to study the development of Shanghai port logistics. First, the use of co-integration test to analyze the long-term co-integration relationship between Shanghai port logistics and the regional economy; Then, by constructing a vector autoregressive model of port cargo throughput and Shanghai’s GDP, construct an impulse response function to analyze the dynamic mechanism between the two; Then analyze the contribution rate between the two through variance decomposition.

Solid Waste Management in Lae City, Papua New Guinea

Lae city is the capital of the Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. It is the main land transport corridor, the country's main industrial hub and largest cargo port. As a result of the urbanization and industrialization process, more people had migrated to Lae city for better opportunities. These activities contributed to the generation of a considerable amount of solid waste that has become a real concern. The present research aims to understand the existing practices of Solid Waste Management, to estimate per capita waste generation rate and composition of waste, to identify the issues and challenges faced in this regard and suggest methods for improvement. All wastes from the city are discarded at the Second Seventh Landfill (SSL) open dump site, located about 10 to 12 kilometers drive away from the city, causing enormous pollution to the surrounding environment. The per capita waste generation rate witnessed was 0.312 kg per capita per day with a composition of 66% organic waste, 22% recyclable, and 12% non-recyclable materials. It was found that ineffective legislation, lack of law enforcement were the challenges faced by the Lae city council. Rehabilitation of SSL or the construction of a new sanitary land fill should be recommended for effective management.

МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ РИСКАМИ В ТРАНСПОРТНОЙ ЛОГИСТИКЕ

The article considers the business processes at the transport logistics enterprises as 
 a chain of clear regulations, where noncompliance or delay of one of them results in disruption of the whole process. Risk management is one of the key tasks requiring the development of modeling tools and prevention of undesirable situations. There has been shown a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration. The tree of goals of the transport logistics enterprise was built. Failure to achieve a particular goal is considered as a risk situation, or a risk. A set of factors for assessing its implementation is opposed to each goal, formulas for calculating the indicators used are given. A model of scenarios of all existing significant risks has been developed. A multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic model, a cascade logical-probabilistic model and a multi-level cascade hybrid logical-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port/transport enterprise are proposed. The main idea is the need to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical-probabilistic models and simulation, where the interpretation of the results is possible using logical and probabilistic models and scenarios. The proposed models make it possible to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various levels of management, as well as to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. The integrated use of all these models is the basis for the development of timely management decisions. Particular attention is paid to the description of the technology for constructing logical, probabilistic and scenario models of various types.

The Effect of Port Gate Location and Gate Procedures on the Port-City Relation

Ports are important hubs that have positive impacts on the regions they serve, but they also pose some challenges that need to be addressed. Many ports around the world have aligned their development strategies with the concept of green growth; however, the green and efficient performance of ports does not only depend on the port management itself; some elements need to be negotiated and approved by local and national governments. One of such elements is road port access. We investigated the impact of port gate location and port gate procedures on port’s performance by examining the case of the Adriatic port of Koper, the only Slovenian international cargo port. We found that significant external costs are incurred due to a non-optimized situation caused by the lack of coordination and cooperation on all levels, although the port of Koper is one of European core ports. Further, delayed digitalization of port gate procedures caused by port management adds to degradation of port city relations.

Public-Private Partnerships in transport: a critical assessment of the Caribbean

PurposeThis article critically analyses the extent to which selected Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) transportation projects in the Caribbean subregion embrace good practices and how they benefit the public sector.Design/methodology/approachThe article begins with the general rationale of PPPs, leading to a discussion on the specific challenges of the Caribbean subregion and an assessment of certain critical projects. The sample cases include the L F Wade International Airport in Bermuda, the cruise berthing and cargo port redevelopment project in the Cayman Islands, and the Sanger International Airport in Jamaica. There are five aspects to the critical assessment: (a) an evaluation of the type of PPP arrangement used; (b) the legal/policy framework; (c) financial implications; (d) accountability; and (e) miscellaneous data. Desk-based research is conducted as supported by both international and local sources to convey a uniquely local perspective in this under-researched area of scholarship.FindingsPPP frameworks in the Caribbean are improving quickly but remain a work in progress. Jamaica leads the region. Bermuda trails behind. Problems of legal compliance with frameworks and limited market engagement persist, leading to risk management problems.Originality/valueThis article fills a literature gap on critical analysis of individual Caribbean PPP transportation projects. Previous reports, mostly by international organisations, cover regional or sectorial trends. Other sources take a descriptive but not critical approach.

How to Measure Environmental Performance in Ports

Oceans, seas, and marine resources are highly relevant for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Such relevance has given rise to the blue economy approach, where scholars and policymakers see activities carried out in cargo ports from a different perspective. The blue economy approach stresses the emergence of multiple transnational networks in relation to these topics and the development of green ports plus environmental measurements at seaports in general. In this context, our study aimed to review the various scientifically documented methods for measuring environmental performance in ports, ports companies, or port authorities in the maritime transport and inland waterways framework. The study followed a scientometric meta-analytic methodology to accomplish its goals. The study strictly referred to the Environmental Performance in Ports (EPP) and extracted the corpus to analyze data held in five databases embedded in the Web of Science Core Collection. Then, the selection was processed and refined with the PRISMA guidelines to establish the eligibility criteria for articles with the PICOS (Population, Interventions, Comparators, Outcomes, and Study) tool. A limited study set was identified. This included port environmental performance indicators and studies that were strongly influenced by the European Sea Ports Organization and Green Marine networks. These were compared based on the ecological Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), scale structure, and diversity in application. Finally, we assessed two measurement forms documented in the scientific research on the subject at a global level and discussed their pros and cons.

Forecasting the Logistics Demand of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port

Objective - The objective of this paper is to establish the forecasting models of port cargo throughput and container throughput in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port in the next 5 years, and to put forward the countermeasures of port logistics development in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port according to the forecast results. Methodology/Technique – The data of cargo throughput and container throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou in 2009-2020 are collected through the data of Guangxi Statistical Yearbook and Guangxi Statistical Bulletin. Based on 2019 and 2020, the forecasting models of cargo throughput and container throughput in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou are establishe using a weighted moving average forecasting method. The cargo throughput and container throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port and 3 port areas of Beihai, Fangcheng and Qinzhou in 2020/2021-2025 are predicted. Findings – The forecast results show that by 2025, the cargo throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port is expected to exceed 400 million tons, and the container throughput is expected to exceed 10 million TEU. According to the fitting diagram of forecast results and actual data, it can be seen that the accuracy of the forecast results is very high. Novelty – It is innovative to select 2 base years in 2019 and 2020 to establish forecasting model. Based on the comparative analysis of the forecast results, this paper puts forward various measures to promote the development of port logistics of Guangxi Beibu Gulf port, such as strengthening the construction of port self-condition, strengthening the co-ordinated development of port and economic hinterland, speeding up the construction of port collection and distribution system, training and introducing all kinds of high-quality port logistics talents. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: C53, R41. Keywords: Logistics Demand Forecast; Cargo Throughput Forecast; Container Throughput Forecast; Weighted Moving Average Forecasting Method; Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Yue, N. (2021). Forecasting the Logistics Demand of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port, GATR Global J. Bus. Soc. Sci. Review, 9(1): 73 – 89. https://doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2021.9.1(9)

The Economic Analysis of Air Pollution Mitigation Measures in Smaller Ports

Huge quantities of cargo are handled, stored and processed annually in the world’s ports. It is clear that ports play an important role in the development of the economy and society around the world. However, port operations on both the sea and the land side are also having negative effects, which in today’s environmentally sensitive society are becoming an increasing problem. Therefore, port authorities and operators need to look for solutions to reduce these negative effects, while maintaining or even increasing a port’s competitiveness. This is not an easy task, as ports differ from each other in many ways, and the ability to implement certain solutions, and the effectiveness of selected solutions, can vary significantly between them. In this article, the authors focus on the problem of air emissions from port operations. They address all the sources of port air emissions, and verify the effectiveness of selected air emission mitigation measures in smaller cargo ports. Efficacy examples of selected measures are shown in the case of the Port of Koper, the only Slovenian cargo port in the north Adriatic, which handled almost 23 million tonnes of cargo in 2019.

Tracing the invasion characteristics of the yellow-legged hornet, Vespa velutina nigrithorax (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), in Korea using newly detected variable mitochondrial DNA sequences

Abstract The yellow-legged hornet, Vespa velutina nigrithorax (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), invaded South Korea in 2003 through Busan metropolitan city, which is located in the southeast region of the country. Previous studies aiming to trace the origin of V. velutina in Korea used a portion of mitochondrial (mt) COI and detected a single haplotype common to the site of origin. However, no subsequent study on invasive dynamics such as additional entry and/or another site of entry has been performed. In this study, segments of mt COI, CytB, and lrRNA were sequenced from 238 individuals collected in 11 Korean and two Japanese localities, but no variation in each gene was observed. Thus, we developed two intergenic spacer (IGS) sequences from the publicly available mt genome of V. velutina, which provided substantially increased variability (i.e., 19 haplotypes with 1.74% maximum sequence divergence in 1,129–1,146-bp-long concatenated sequences). Population genetic analyses using the concatenated sequences unexpectedly provided higher genetic diversity estimates in the northwest and southwest regions, both of which also harbor international cargo ports, than in the southeast region, in which Busan is located. Furthermore, this genetic result was roughly concordant with our questionnaire survey demonstrating that V. velutina was observed in apiaries located in the northwest and southwest regions up to 2012, when there was no reported prevalent distribution of the hornet beyond the southeast region. These results collectively suggest that the northwest and southwest regions of Korea are additional sites of V. velutina entry to the country, independent from the southeast region origin.

Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Air Pollutants in a Coastal Area of the Yangtze River Delta, China, Measured by a Low-Cost Sensor Package

Ningbo is a major coastal city in the Yangtze River Delta region, China, with the largest cargo capacity in the world. We conducted a field campaign in Ningbo to measure the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on air pollutants including NO2, O3 and CO from 21 January to 23 March 2020, using a home-made low-cost sensor package. The average concentrations of NO2, O3 and CO were observed to be 7.2, 37.5 and 648.5 ppb, respectively, during the lockdown. Compared with the previous year, the concentrations of NO2 and CO decreased by 63.1% and 6.9%, while the concentration of O3 increased by 37.9%. The significant reduction of NO2 concentration may be attributed to the reduced emissions of freighters and heavy trucks with lower port cargo throughput, which led to a decrease of NO concentration. The increase of O3 concentration was probably due to the lower titration of O3 by NO. After the lockdown, the concentrations of O3 and NO2 increased by 15.5% and 143.1%, respectively, compared with those during the lockdown. The temporal variations of the concentrations of NO2, O3 and CO measured by the sensor package were coincident with those obtained by the reference apparatus, which proves the sensor package to be suitable for air quality monitoring in field campaigns. This is the first time that a dramatic decrease in NO2 concentration in a coastal city due to a lockdown has been reported.

Building Cruise Berthing Facilities in the Cayman Islands: an Unfinished Drama in Three Acts

Drama surrounds the decision to build a cruise berthing facility in the Cayman Islands. After two decades waiting in the wings, the berthing is the most extensive infrastructure plan and the most divisive project Cayman has ever considered. Cruise passengers must wait for their ship to anchor offshore and board a tender to carry them to the port. The Government intended to improve this situation by building a cruise berthing alongside a total redevelopment of its cargo port through a contractual public-private partnership. The project was awarded to a consortium led by Carnival and Royal Caribbean, but various decisions have been kicked back until after the May 2021 elections. However, has the ship now sailed? This article’s goal is to provide a way forward to overcome the current deadlock. The article is structured in three main sections: a general section on cruise ship tourism in Cayman to put this case study in context; the second section is a critical assessment of the cruise berthing’s timeline and milestones; and the third section assesses its impact on the host community. Desk-based research blending international and local bibliography provides a uniquely local perspective.

Optimization of Bridge Crane Control System Using Fuzzy PID Control and Speed Control of Frequency Converter

Objective: As a carrier, bridge cranes are widely used in port cargo handling. Due to the structure of the crane itself, the load inevitably produces displacement deviation and lifting weight swing. Therefore, the optimization investigation of the bridge crane control system is carried out to guarantee the fast and secure operation of the crane. Method: According to the characteristics of bridge cranes, combined with the experience of on-site operating staff, the fuzzy rules that meet the working conditions of the site are designed by using the advantages of fuzzy PID (Proportion-Integration-Differentiation) control algorithm without relying on an accurate mathematical model, to set the parameters of the fuzzy PID controller. The speed control technique of frequency converter is adopted to design the system to improve the safety of the overall system. Results: The results show that the adjustment time of the swing angle of crane weight of the traditional PID control requires 6.79s, and the maximum swing angle of crane weight is 0.039rad, and the adjustment time under the fuzzy control is 4.89s, and the swing angle of crane weight is 0.013rad. The fuzzy PID controller surpasses the traditional PID controller in the positioning accuracy. It is not sensitive to changes in the internal parameters of the system. Also, it has strong adaptability to changes in operating conditions. The swing angle of crane weight is smaller, which further improves the robustness. The vector frequency conversion speed control has a more precise control effect on the speed and running track of the operating mechanism of the bridge crane. This method can be applied to the automatic operation mechanism of bridge cranes and achieve good control performance. Conclusion: The conducted optimization investigation of the bridge crane control system makes the control system flexible, simple and robust, providing important theoretical support for related explorations.

Comprehensive Risk Analysis of a Cargo Port Based on Logic-Probabilistic and Simulation Modeling

Рurpose of research. Improvement of the effectiveness of the cargo port from the point of view of preventing the occurrence of risk situations based on the development of tools for a comprehensive risk analysis of a cargo port by integrating logical, probabilistic and simulation modeling. Methods. It is presented a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration, a model of scenarios of all existing significant risks is developed, a hybrid logical-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port is proposed, which makes it possible to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical and probabilistic models, as well as simulation modeling, the interpretation of the results of which is possible using LP-models and scenarios. Results Various types of models for the occurrence of risk events in the cargo port were built based on the set research goal and the formulated tasks. The proposed models make it possible to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various levels, and also to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. All this will allow you to develop timely informed management decisions. Conclusion. The formalization of risks of various levels and the interrelationships between them using logicalprobabilistic modeling is proposed on the basis of the task, which allows formulating management decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of the cargo port using the interpretation of the results of simulation modeling.