Prediction Study of Tianjin Port Throughput Based on GM (1, 1) Extended Model

Abstract

Tianjin Port is the largest comprehensive main hub port and one of the main transshipment ports for energy and raw materials transportation in northern China. It has freight business with many countries. At the same time, Tianjin Port is the first port to carry out international maritime container transportation in China’s coastal areas. Tianjin Port was built in the 1950s, and the container business has been started since 1973, In recent years, with the rapid development of large-scale, intensive and intelligent container ships in Tianjin Port, cargo throughput is an important indicator in the comprehensive evaluation of port development, which represents the development level of a port. At the same time, it also brings new tasks to the navigation guarantee work, in particular, it puts forward systematic requirements for port and wharf construction, navigation aids layout, navigation aids efficiency display and navigation aids base layout. The annual throughput of port cargo or container is one of the bases of world ports. As an output index, port enterprises, shipping companies, navigation guarantee departments and shipping economic analysis departments attach great importance to it. Therefore, the prediction of Tianjin Port cargo throughput can provide reference for Tianjin Port’s next development planning, waterway use and navigation guarantee planning and layout, navigation aids setting, wharf construction, route mapping, etc. the article constructs of Tianjin Port. The average error is 0.29%, and the prediction accuracy is first class. This model can better predict the change trend of cargo for Tianjin Port, which is a better way to analyze the change trend for Tianjin port.