Peripheral Economies Research Articles

Da fábrica sorocabana ao conglomerado nacional: uma análise da história do Grupo Votorantim (1891-1980)

A Votorantim, um dos principais grupos empresariais atuando na economia brasileira, tem sua origem que remonta ao ano de 1891, quando o banco União de São Paulo criou a Fábrica Têxtil Votorantim no município paulista de Sorocaba. Com a falência do banco União em 1917, a empresa foi leiloada e, nos anos subsequentes, seu controle acionário foi adquirido pelo português Antonio Pereira Ignácio, um importante industrial do setor têxtil paulista e que fez da Votorantim a principal firma do ramo têxtil algodoeiro de São Paulo nas décadas de 1920 e 1930. Todavia, a partir dos anos 1930, o Grupo Votorantim passou a concentrar esforços no setor de bens intermediários – cimento, produtos químicos, alumínio, aço e ferro – através da constituição das seguintes empresas: Fábrica de Cimento Santa Helena (1936), Siderúrgica Barra Mansa (1937), Cia. Nitro-Química (1937) e a Cia. Brasileira de Alumínio (1955). Tendo em vista a escassez de análises sobre como teria se dado a conversão do Grupo Votorantim do setor de bens de consumo finais à indústria de base, o artigo aborda esta guinada realçando: a correlação entre o Grupo e o projeto industrializante do presidente Getúlio Vargas, os recursos produtivos preexistentes e a expertise industrial de seus dirigentes. A pesquisa calca-se em documentação primária constituída de: relatórios da diretoria do Grupo Votorantim, demonstrações de lucros e perdas e balanços patrimoniais. Como resultado, o artigo traz uma contribuição ao debate sobre a formação de grupos econômicos em economias periféricas, ao demonstrar que, no caso da Votorantim, a geração de receitas pelo próprio Grupo foi o instrumento principal de financiamento à criação das novas empresas no setor de bens intermediários do Brasil.

Does one (Unconventional) Size Fit All? Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Euro Area Economies

This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the main transmission channels of such measures has changed over time, with the portfolio rebalancing being generally more impactful than the signaling channel after the “Whatever it takes” speech in July 2012. However, we also provide evidence of a great degree of heterogeneity across core and peripheral economies, as well as over time. We then adopt a time-varying SVAR with stochastic volatility to account for such heterogeneity, by identifying UMP shocks via “dynamic” sign restrictions. By means of counterfactual experiments, we provide evidence of how a different stance on the part of the ECB would have led to a significantly different economic performance of euro area economies. For instance, if the ECB had not put in place the measures adopted between 2014 and 2017, annual output growth would have been, on average, 0.67 percentage points lower in peripheral countries.

Estado Burguês, Planejamento Econômico e Industrialização no Brasil (1930-1980)

The article aims to discuss the role of the State in the process of constitution, expansion and consolidation of industry in the brazilian peripheral economy. In the first moment, there is an exhibition of what was conventionally called “restricted” industrialization and the constitution of the bourgeois state in Brazil during the Vargas era. In the second, the industrialization that was observed during the implementation of the audacious Plano de Metas proposed by Juscelino Kubistchek is emphasized. In the third and last one, an approach is taken about the consolidation of the industrialization process carried out during the military dictatorship, especially in the period of the so-called economic miracle and in the milestones of the II PND, which was in force between the years 1974-1979, during the government of General Ernesto Geisel. The article consists of a critical review about the Brazilian industrialization process, based, theoretically, on the contributions of authors of the so-called historical-structural method and on the marxist theory of dependence. Â

Bunge Brasil (1956 a 1994): consolidação de um grupo econômico

Resumo Este artigo objetiva mostrar que a Bunge Brasil se consolidou como grupo econômico na segunda metade do século XX. Fundada em Amsterdam em 1818, atua no país desde 1905, chegando via Argentina onde estava presente desde o final do século XIX com o nome de Bunge y Born. Na década de 1990, o grupo Bunge Brasil chegou a ter 127 firmas independentes. Para este artigo selecionamos quatro delas, que representam diversos setores: trigo e moagem (Moinho Fluminense); tintas, vernizes e derivados (Tintas Coral); agronegócio e exportações (Sanbra); setor têxtil e confecções (Santista Têxtil). Teoricamente o texto segue os autores que discutem a formação de grupos econômicos em economias periféricas. Os dados primários foram levantados junto ao Centro de Memória Bunge, em São Paulo, e através de entrevistas. Como conclusão prévia pode-se afirmar que a Bunge se consolidou como grupo econômico na medida em que foi diversificando suas atividades e transformando algumas de suas 127 empresas em conglomerados industriais, elas mesmas tendo suas próprias coligadas e constituindo-se em outros grupos econômicos.

Political Economy and Forecasting Tools

Modern regional development strategies are implemented only for the part that meets the interests of corporations. The national economic approach is ignored. Western models within the framework of economics do not correspond to the state of the Russian economy. The theories of the peripheral economy of the 19th century were not only accepted but also realised during the reform of the economy of the Russian Empire. Loss of value with a “non-market” approach to exchange with other countries was considered as a necessary condition for “industrial education of the nation”. Examples of projects implemented in Siberia demonstrate this clearly. It is no secret that many infrastructure projects, in particular transport projects, are obviously unprofitable. Pipeline transport is created in the interests of mainly large resource-exploiting companies that prefer export destinations. The economic block of our government is focused on maximising cash income, and preferably as soon as possible. It should be recognised that the theories (scientific basis, if any) used to reform the Soviet economy of the 90s did not correspond to the object. Our economy was in a different environment of economic regulation, in which other laws apply. We propose to use the forecasting experience based on spatial models of the national economic level, which are based on the laws of political economy: maximisation of the degree of satisfaction of the needs of the country’s population, the law of planned (propor tional) development and the law of value.

Cost-competitiveness and structural change in value chains – vertically-integrated analysis of the European automotive sector

The arbitrage in labour costs is arguably one of the driving forces in the structural change of production in the era of globalization. We investigate the actual meaning of cost-competitiveness for the evolution of automotive value chains of the five largest European producers on a country-level in the period of 2000–2014. For this purpose, we develop an input-output framework of vertically-integrated analysis of unit labour costs (VULC). The econometric analysis, by means of panel-data ARDL model, demonstrated that the level of cost-competitiveness of the supplying economies was a major determinant of their increasing role in the European automotive value chains. This effect was however limited to peripheral economies, in line with the arguments of new international division of labour.

Recovery from financial crises in peripheral economies, 1870–1913

What drives recoveries after financial crises? I address this question for the 1870–1913 “first era of globalization,” focusing on whether trade policy changes or positive movements in commodity prices played a bigger role in stimulating output growth after financial crises in peripheral economies. At this time before governments had modern fiscal and monetary policy tools to use while responding to crises protectionism was one of the few national-level policy options available for shaping economic activity. Improving terms of trade is another major factor that could influence output growth in the commodity-exporting countries included in this analysis. While previous studies of this period have looked at longer-run associations between these explanatory variables and economic growth, I focus on the aftermath of crises, and find that tariff rate increases had a positive impact on GDP per capita growth, while positive terms of trade changes did not have a significant effect on output growth. This suggests that governments played a substantial role in shaping post-crisis recoveries during this period.

External Financial Liberalization and Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Countries: An Empirical Evaluation of the Brazilian Case

ABSTRACTThis article evaluates the effects of external financial liberalization on Brazilian macroeconomic performance from 1995 to 2016. Its main contributions are to assess the influence of the global financial cycle on the level of external financial liberalization and to analyse the short‐ and long‐run macroeconomic effects of such liberalization on the performance of a peripheral economy in the global currency hierarchy. Methodologically, the article employs the Markov‐Switching Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction models. The results show that the global financial cycle directly affects cross‐border financial flows and frames the impact of external financial liberalization on the macroeconomic performance. The article concludes that external financial liberalization has negative macroeconomic effects in the short run and generates a trade‐off between stability and growth in the long run.

Industrial business groups in a context of deindustrialization. The Uruguayan Case, 1980-2015

During the 1990s, a series of institutional transformations took place that strongly affected the national productive structure, as well as its agents. Among the main effects of the new openness and liberalization policies are: the loss of relevance of the manufacturing sector in the economy, the abandonment of the complex system of tariffs and subsidies and the accelerated growth of foreign direct investment. How have these transformations impacted the structure of national industrial business groups? This is the central question that guides the article.The paper takes two samples from large industrial business groups in the late 1980s and in 2015, comparing their evolution in both benchmark years. In the construction of both samples, information was taken from the Central Bank of Uruguay, the Montevideo Stock Exchange, Official Newspaper and press sources, in addition to previous work. The evidence presented shows that aspects such as size, level of diversification and the form of family control have not varied much in each period. In this sense, the groups have remained stable around certain attributes. On the other hand, there are notable variations in the formation of alliances, the sector distribution of the business portfolio and the links with the government in different modalities.These variations and permanence can be explained by the impact of the new institutional context in the framework of a small economy like Uruguay. Although similar reforms in other countries in the region have strengthened national business groups (promoting their internationalization and their internal expansion into new business areas), the Uruguayan case seems to represent the opposite. In this way, the paper contributes to the discussion about family groups and their adaptation to the context of the second globalization in peripheral economies.

Manufacturing development: how transnational market integration shapes opportunities and capacities for development in Europe’s three peripheries

According to the dominating perspective in the literature, transnational market integration has the uniform effect of decreasing the room for development in peripheral economies that do not have the economic and political power of countries like China or Russia. Challenging this perspective, this Special Issue (SI) contrasts different integration strategies yielding dramatically different effects on developmental opportunities and capacities. By exploring various patterns of market integration, we show first, that states in peripheral economies vary in their institutional strengths to exploit developmental opportunities and that the existence of such capabilities depends on domestic political conditions. We also show, second, that depending on their integration strategy, transnational integration regimes (TIRs) can both improve and worsen developmental capacities and political conditions in these countries. The SI examines the different integration strategies used by the largest TIR, the European Union (EU), in its peripheries. The shallow model of integration allows for à la carte trade liberalization and regulatory integration. This model helps to consolidate pre-existing rent-seeking alliances and with it, the conservation of the institutional status quo. The pro-active version of the deep model of integration can promote upgrading in domestic developmental capacities in the period of preparing new countries for membership. Once peripheral economies gain membership, the EU has limited tools to help these countries to synchronize domestic developmental needs and transnational regulatory requirements. Increasing contestation of liberal ideas is the result.

Desenvolvimento regional e localização industrial: uma sistematização das teorias clássicas

A centralidade que o campo do desenvolvimento regional alcançou nas últimas décadas ultrapassou o debate acadêmico para embasar políticas públicas de desenvolvimento local. O próprio fracasso de políticas de industrialização levadas a cabo no decorrer do século XX justificam a necessidade de se fazer avançar o conhecimento teórico e as práticas políticas de defesa do setor industrial nas economias periféricas. Nesse sentido, este trabalho procurou sistematizar as principais teorias clássicas de desenvolvimento regional e de localização industrial a fim de ensejar a interposição de novos elementos teóricos no debate contemporâneo.

Beyond the Stereotype: Restating the Relevance of the Dependency Research Programme

ABSTRACTThis article evaluates the relevance of dependency theory for understanding contemporary development challenges, especially in the light of changes in the global economy over the past 50 years. In order to do so, the article rectifies previous misunderstandings of the scholarship and offers a new definition of dependency theory as a research programme, rather than a singular theory. Four core tenets of this research programme are identified: a global historical approach; theorizing of the polarizing tendencies of global capitalism; a focus on structures of production; and a focus on the specific constraints faced by peripheral economies. While each of these elements can be found in many contemporary theories, what makes dependency theory unique — and a particularly strong research programme — is the combination of these elements. The article demonstrates how this approach provides a deep and broad understanding that is necessary to appreciate the persistence of uneven development with reference to two case studies, namely successful industrialization in South Korea, and how the fragmentation of global value chains has impacted industrialization in Indonesia. Finally, the article argues that approaching these kinds of cases through a dependency research programme can contribute to a fruitful renewal of development studies.

Competitive capabilities in knowledge-intensive services firms: strategic advantages of born globals in a peripheral region

PurposeWhile the born global (BG) phenomenon has been well established in the literature, studies on accelerated internationalization of firms in the service sector have been scarce, particularly for the specific case of knowledge-intensive services (KIS). The purpose of this paper is to explore which competitive characteristics differentiate KIS BGs from other KIS firms in the context of a peripheral region.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical focus of this study comprehends primary survey data from 250 Spanish KIS firms (Andalusia) that have been internationalized and analyzed through ordinal and ordinary least squares regressions. The authors address the “born-global effect” on five features of interest, namely, entry mode, technological capabilities, qualification of staff, external resources and quality of services.FindingsResults suggest that KIS BGs in Andalusia perceive exports as a more relevant form of internationalization than its non-BG peers. Also, KIS BGs in Andalusia present higher levels of technological intensity. Differences in terms of staff qualification, access to extramural R&D resources and the quality of services could not be identified.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of this research concerns its cross-sectional character, thus hindering the evaluation of developmental trajectories taking place in the cohort under scrutiny. Such an approach would allow a better comprehension of the competitiveness dynamics in internationalized KIS firms. Also, because this assessment is geographically restricted to Andalusia, Spain, the authors recommend caution in establishing direct comparisons and appropriation of results for other regional/national contexts.Practical implicationsRecommendations for public policy include establishing the necessary infrastructures to encourage the technological development of KIS companies and provide support – through export promotion agencies, for instance – for early approximation with foreign markets. Taking into account the contributions of KIS firms for the development of a peripheral economy, this involves the need to establish instruments that provide strategic information to internationalize, as well as lines of funding for these companies.Originality/valueEmpirical evidence on KIS BGs is needed to fully grasp its differences to other internationalized service firms. The analysis within this specific domain represents an advance in the literature on this subject. Also, the context of peripheral regions – considering their economic differences to core areas – has been understudied. The elaboration and application of the survey have allowed the authors to have access to primary in-depth data and, therefore, to build a better understanding of KIS BGs in Andalusia, Spain.

Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Restructuring and Performance Upgrading: Firm-level Evidence from Portugal

This article assesses the causal relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and various sides of firm performance, using micro data from Portuguese manufacturing firms during 2006–2014. To control for the possible endogeneity of outward FDI strategies, propensity score matching is combined with difference-in-difference approach. Our analysis shows that the learning effects for parent firms in Portuguese manufacturing depend on the underlying outward FDI strategy. The findings suggest that outward FDI could contribute to enhance firms’ productivity and their scale of operations. However, those learning effects seem to be mostly visible when firms engage in vertical outward FDI. Further, outward FDI, vertical or horizontal, appears to enhance the integration of Portuguese firms into the global economy through increased export intensity. From a managerial and policy perspective, the findings support the argument that outward FDI can indeed be at root of upgrading performance and firm’s restructuring in a small, open and peripheral economy such as Portugal.

Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies

We estimate the impact of the extensity of macroprudential policies on the correlation of the policy interest rates between the center economies (CEs, i.e., the U.S., Japan, and the Euro area), and the peripheral economies (PHs). We find a more extensive implementation of macroprudential policies would lead PHs to (re)gain monetary independence from the CEs when the CEs implement expansionary monetary policy; when PHs run current account deficit; when they hold lower levels of international reserves; when their financial markets are relatively closed; when they are experiencing an increase in net portfolio flows; and when they are experiencing credit expansion.

Linking Agricultural GHG Emissions to Global Trade Network

AbstractAs part of the climate policy to meet the 2 °C target, actions in all economic sectors, including agriculture, are required to mitigate global greenhouse gas emissions. While there has been an ever‐increasing focus on agricultural greenhouse gas (AGHG) emissions, limited attention has been paid to their economic drivers in the globalized world economy and related mitigation potentials. This paper makes a first attempt to trace AGHG emissions via global trade networks using a multiregional input‐output model and a complex network model. Over one third of global AGHG emissions in 2012 can be linked with products traded internationally, of which intermediate trade and final trade contribute 64.2% and 35.8%, respectively. Japan, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong are the world's five largest net importers of embodied emissions, while Ethiopia, Australia, Pakistan, India, and Argentina are the five largest net exporters. Some hunger‐afflicted developing countries in Asia and Africa are important embodied emission exporters, due to their large‐scale exports of agricultural products. Trade‐related virtual AGHG emission transfers shape a highly heterogenous network, due to the coexistence of numerous peripheral economies and a few highly connected hub economies. The network clustering structure is revealed by the regional integration of several trading communities, while hub economies are collectors and distributors in the global trade network, with important implications for emission mitigation. Achieving AGHG emission reduction calls for a combination of supply‐ and demand‐side policies covering the global trade network.

THE EMBEDDEDNESS OF CORE-PERIPHERY RELATIONS IN TIME AND SPACE

ABSTRACT The paper applies the core-periphery approach developed by the Latin American historical-structuralist school to study the consequences of European integration on its peripheral economies. The structural causes of the Eurozone crisis are explained in terms of the divergent trajectories of interdependent economies with different productive capabilities. It is argued that, as in the 1970s, the new challenges confronting the EU - the digital transformation, new consumption patterns, reversal from globalisation to regional blocs, disenchantment with the European project - call for a radical change in the institutional and productive structures of the Eurozone. Averting the prospect of a disintegrative crisis means revising the European institutions and policies in the direction of a more egalitarian and cohesive Union.

Efficiency‐adjusted public capital, capital grants, and growth

AbstractA debate on whether capital grants, and especially European Union (EU) funds, actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This article empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991–2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency‐adjusted public capital stock series, which reflects the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the article illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.

Taxonomias tecnológicas e setoriais da indústria de transformação brasileira

Este artigo discute a aderência de taxonomias industriais de tradição evolucionária à realidade da indústria de transformação brasileira a partir da seleção de indicadores de atividades inovativas para o ano de 2014. Os dados são analisados por meio da técnica de agrupamento, com utilização de 30 indicadores reunidos em sete diferentes grupos de características das atividades inovativas. Parte-se da suposição de que a adequação dessas classificações à realidade brasileira se justifica como um problema de pesquisa relevante, uma vez que essas taxonomias foram originalmente concebidas com base em estruturas produtivas de economias desenvolvidas, requerendo adaptações e qualificações no contexto de uma economia periférica como a brasileira, também marcada por especificidades setoriais. Os resultados sugerem relativa aderência aos padrões internacionais no período analisado, com discrepâncias pontuais em alguns setores.

Nova Previdência: o austericídio neoliberal sob a ótica da teoria marxista da dependência

O presente artigo propõe uma retomada às raízes da Teoria Marxista da Dependência (TMD) como vertentes do pensamento marxista dedicadas a contribuir para explicar o processo do desenvolvimento capitalista em economias dependentes, em especial, na América Latina. Valendo-se do método dialético e das categorias econômicas desenvolvidas em O Capital, Rui Mauro Marini, junto a outros autores, fundam um arcabouço teórico-explicativo para a realidade das economias periféricas, sem cair em um revisionismo simplificador. Portanto, com o intuito de aprofundar essa reflexão, apresentam-se neste trabalho, os principais conceitos da Teoria Marxista da Dependência como particularidades da reprodução do capital na América Latina. Posteriormente, utilizamos esses fundamentos interpretativos para esclarecer o austericídio verificado no Brasil hoje, no sentido de legitimar a contemporaneidade da TMD e o seu potente vetor interpretativo e transformador em tempos de crise estrutural do capital, examinando um conjunto de contrarreformas em andamento e a serem implementadas, a saber: o Novo Regime Fiscal, a Reforma Trabalhista e a “Nova Previdência”.