Flood Risk Perception Research Articles

Flood Risk Perception among the Inhabitants of a Flood-prone Area in Iran

Background: Misunderstanding of disaster hinders people from devoting enough attention to disaster preparedness programs. Flood is one of the main natural hazards in Iran. Objectives: The present study aimed to determine flood risk perception among residents of a flood-prone area in Iran in 2021. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 201 inhabitants of three villages along the Hesar-Golestan River in northeast Iran. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to assess their flood risk perception and opinions about the causes of the flood. Flood risk perception was assessed using ten questions with a 5-point Likert scale. Risk perception was calculated at three levels: low (scores 10 to 23), medium (scores 24 to 37), and high (scores 38 to 50). Multi-stage sampling technique was used for sampling. Results: The majority of participants (81%) had a moderate risk perception. The mean risk perception score was 30±5, which indicates a moderate risk perception. According to the participants, the three main causes of floods were environmental degradation and soil erosion, unplanned development and construction in flood-prone areas, and heavy seasonal rainfall, respectively. There was a significant relationship between gender and age with some opinions about the causes of floods. Conclusion: The risk perception of participants was at a moderate level. Low or moderate flood risk perception can lead to insufficient attention, inaction, or insufficient efforts to reduce the risk and increase preparedness for floods. Taking measures such as educating people about the causes and consequences of floods using appropriate and effective methods can help to manage disasters better.

Factors influencing flood risk mitigation after wildfire: Insights for individual and collective action after the 2010 Schultz Fire

Post-fire flooding is of significant concern in the U.S. Southwest, where burned areas can drastically alter local hydrology to increase the risk of floods and debris flows, posing new and dynamic flood risk to communities downslope that necessitate coordinated response across jurisdictional boundaries. However, limited research explores how residents in affected communities respond to post-fire flood risk, both individually and collectively. We address this need by exploring factors that may influence the uptake of individual and collective actions for post-fire flood mitigation after an extreme fire event. We conducted a mixed-mode survey of 1,804 households in Flagstaff, Arizona, within the 100-year modeled post-fire flood risk area created by the Schultz Fire in 2010. We received 407 completed questionnaires for a 22.6% response rate. Survey questions focused on mitigation actions, addressing community flood risk, and responsibility for post-fire management among other topics. We found that respondents most readily engage in temporary mitigation actions, such as sandbag placement, that require less time and lower financial commitment. Respondent mitigation actions were primarily influenced by their personal flood experience and risk perceptions, with concerns about longevity of flood risk prioritized above current risk levels. Those who participated in individual actions were more likely to participate in collective action and vice versa, indicating a close relationship between mitigation actions across scales. We provide implications for practitioners working in post-fire environments, with a focus on communication and outreach about flood risk that motivate resident action to facilitate shared responsibility and cross-jurisdictional management of post-fire flood risk.

Evacuation decision making and risk perception: flooded rural communities in Pakistan

ABSTRACT Evacuation is considered an essential aspect of flood risk reduction. It is important to identify the factors affecting the decision-making process during evacuation. The purpose of this study was to examine the factors that influence evacuation decision-making in flood-prone rural communities along the Indus River in Dera Ismail Khan. A total of 465 household surveys were conducted in high flood-risk areas along the river to gather data on evacuation characteristics and risk perception. Pearson's correlation technique was utilised to determine the relationship between flood risk perception indicators and the likelihood of evacuation, while a binary logistic regression test was implemented to identify the socio-economic factors that influence evacuation. The results of the study indicated that socio-economic conditions and risk perceptions can have a direct or indirect effect on evacuation decisions. It was found that those living in closer to the river tended to have a lower risk perception. However, respondents in the study reported experiencing high levels of fear in regard to floods. Age and proximity to hazards were identified as significant factors that impact willingness to evacuate. These findings suggest the need for urgent implementation of awareness campaigns in settlements located near the river in order to promote evacuation.

Exploring household flood resilience index using composite indicator method

During a flood event, flood-affected households need adequate flood resilience. The efforts to increase household flood resilience require an adequate understanding of the factors affecting household flood resilience. This study aimed to explore the factors influencing household flood resilience in three flood-affected sub-districts in Tangerang City, Indonesia. The composite indicator method was applied to process data on economic, home environment, social capital, institutional, communication and information, and flood risk perception, using questionnaire data from 354 flood-affected households as respondents and in-depth interviews with local leaders. The results showed that the composite indicator method worked well for measuring the household flood resilience index (HFRI); in the Gembor sub-district, HFRI was 2.88; in Gebang Raya, it was 3.12; and in Periuk, it was 3.03. Analysis based on economic conditions, flood depth, period of residence, and flood risk perception also showed variations in HFRI, which could determine methods to increase household flood resilience. In conclusion, the composite indicator method is an adequate tool to measure flood resilience despite it being an abstract object. Furthermore, the local government can use the HFRI to develop planning efforts to increase household flood resilience based on influencing factors.

Farmers’ Flood Risk Perception in Turkey: The Case of Mersin Province

Understanding perception of the farmers’ flood risks has become increasingly important. This study aimed to evaluate the flood risk perception of farmers by constructing a farmer risk perception score based on eight statements. Data was gathered from 250 randomly selected farmers and analyzed using descriptive statistics, factor analysis, and binary logistic regression. Based on the flood risk perception score, the farmers were classified into two groups, and the results revealed that 46.00% of surveyed farmers had a high level of flood risk perception. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that seven factors, including gender, age, household size, children, farm size, insurance intention, and flood experience, had a significant impact on farmers’ flood risk perceptions. The findings of this study may aid government organizations and farmers in enhancing their flood risk management strategies. Keywords: Flood disaster; Risk perception score; Turkey

Flood stressors and mental distress among community-dwelling adults in Ghana: a mediation model of flood-risk perceptions

ABSTRACT Extant research has linked flooding with mental distress (MD) among flood-prone populations, but the mechanisms underlying this association remain largely unknown. This paper examines the association of flood stressors with MD among households in flood-prone communities in Ghana and estimates whether flood risk perceptions mediated the association. The study involved 767 household heads aged ≥20 years [mean = 47.3 ± 13.7); males = 61.4%]. Flood stressors were assessed using a 15-item Flood Stress-related Scale, while the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) was used to assess MD. Linear regression-based mediation analysis using Hayes’ PROCESS macro was performed to assess the indirect effect of flood stressors with MD through flood risk perceptions. After adjusting for potential confounders, flood stressors were significantly linked with higher risks of MD (β = .060-.080, p < .001). The mediation and bootstrapping analyses suggested that flood health risk perception partially mediated and accounted for 26.7% of the relationship between flood stressors and MD (direct effect: β = .060, Boots 95%CI: .041-.079; indirect effect: β = .022, Boots 95%CI: .015-.031; total effect: β = .082, Boots 95%CI: .063-.101). The link between flood stressors and MD risk is explained partially by flood health risk perception. Knowledge of households' flood risk perception is therefore critical for effectively managing the effects of flood stressors on MD.

A place-based risk appraisal model for exploring residents' attitudes toward nature-based solutions to flood risks.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) have gained popularity as a sustainable and effective way of dealing with increasing flood risks. One of the key factors that often hinders the successful implementation of NBS is residents' opposition to their implementation. In this study, we argue that the place where a hazard exists should be considered a critical contextual factor alongside flood risk appraisals and perceptions of NBS themselves. We have developed a theoretical framework-the "Place-based Risk Appraisal Model (PRAM)"-that draws on constructs inspired by theories of place and risk perception. A citizen survey (n=304) was conducted in five municipalities in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, where dike relocation and floodplain restoration projects have been conducted along the Elbe River. Structural equation modeling was adopted to test the PRAM. Attitudes toward the projects were assessed in terms of "perceived risk-reduction effectiveness" and "supportive attitude." With regard to risk-related constructs, well-communicated information and perceived co-benefits were consistently positive factors for both perceived risk-reduction effectiveness and supportive attitude. Trust in local flood risk management was a positive and threat appraisal a negative predictor of perceived risk-reduction effectiveness affecting "supportive attitude" only through "perceived risk-reduction effectiveness." Regarding place attachment constructs, place identity was a negative predictor of a supportive attitude. The study emphasizes that risk appraisal, pluralities of place contexts to each individual, and their relations are key for determining attitudes toward NBS. Understanding these influencing factors and their interrelationships enables us to provide theory- and evidence-based recommendations for the effective realization of NBS.

Avaliação dos fatores que influenciam na percepção de risco de inundação: uma revisão sistemática de pesquisas empíricas

Conhecer os principais fatores que influenciam o grau da percepção de risco de inundação dos diversos atores de um sistema urbano é fundamental para possibilitar mudanças comportamentais e o desenvolvimento de medidas mais eficazes de redução de risco e preparação diante da ocorrência de uma inundação. A presente pesquisa visa avaliar os fatores que influenciam no grau da percepção de risco de inundação na promoção de ações assertivas para adaptação e mitigação das mudanças climáticas. A metodologia envolve uma revisão sistemática da literatura como técnica de pesquisa. Os estudos destacam uma tendência de que entrevistados com idade mais avançada, mais experiência de inundação, maior consciência, menor renda mensal, menor escolaridade e menos confiança no governo apresentaram maior percepção de risco. Além disso, indicam deficiências significativas nos entendimentos atuais, destacando a escassez de evidências para a relação entre as percepções de risco e o comportamento de mitigação, e uma falha em fazer uso de estruturas teóricas na pesquisa. Sugere-se como estratégia na gestão de risco que ela deva ser adaptada aos diferentes grupos populacionais, considerando as características e necessidades de cada um deles.

Framing the Problem of Flood Risk and Flood Management in Metropolitan Los Angeles

Abstract This paper develops the concept of flood problem framing to understand decision-makers’ priorities in flood risk management in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region in California (LA Metro). Problem frames shape an individual’s preferences for particular management strategies and their future behaviors. While flooding is a complex, multifaceted problem, with multiple causes and multiple impacts, a decision-maker is most likely to manage only those dimensions of flooding about which they are aware or concerned. To evaluate flood decision-makers’ primary concerns related to flood exposure, vulnerability, and management in the LA Metro, we draw on focus groups with flood control districts, city planners, nonprofit organizations, and other flood-related decision-makers. We identify numerous concerns, including concerns about specific types of floods (e.g., fluvial vs pluvial) and impacts to diverse infrastructure and communities. Our analyses demonstrate that flood concerns aggregate into three problem frames: one concerned with large fluvial floods exacerbated by climate change and their housing, economic, and infrastructure impacts; one concerned with pluvial nuisance flooding, pollution, and historic underinvestment in communities; and one concerned with coastal and fluvial flooding’s ecosystem impacts. While each individual typically articulated concerns that overlapped with only one problem frame, each problem frame was discussed by numerous organization types, suggesting low barriers to cross-organizational coordination in flood planning and response. This paper also advances our understanding of flood risk perception in a region that does not face frequent large floods. Significance Statement This paper investigates the primary concerns that planners, flood managers, and other decision-makers have about flooding in Southern California. This is important because the way that decision-makers understand flooding shapes the way that they will plan for and respond to flood events. We find that some decision-makers are primarily concerned with large floods affecting large swaths of infrastructure and housing; others are concerned with frequent, small floods that mobilize pollution in low-income areas; and others are concerned with protecting coastal ecosystems during sea level rise. Our results also highlight key priorities for research and practice, including the need for flexible and accessible flood data and education about how to evacuate.

Experience of localized flooding predicts urban flood risk perception and perceived safety of nature-based solutions

Understanding community members' flood risk perceptions is critical for developing new approaches to managing flood risks for climate resilience. “Risk as feelings” has informed research on how people perceive flood risks based on intuition and personal experiences, complementing experts' technical assessment. However, attention has been primarily on riverine and coastal flooding. We expand the “risk as feelings” concept to investigate community members' risk perceptions of urban pluvial flooding as well as perceived safety of novel vs. familiar nature-based solutions (NBS). For the novel practice, we focus on floodable sites that temporarily inundate urban open spaces under storm conditions. For the familiar practice, we focus on retention ponds that store excessive runoff under storm conditions. Data were collected through visualization-assisted surveys of residents from high and low flood hazard areas in three US cities (N = 884). We found that over half of respondents indicated some degree of worry about stormwater-related damage, and overall, respondents perceived floodable as less safe than retention ponds under storm conditions. Further, respondents who had more frequently experienced localized flooding near their homes were more worried about potential property damage caused by flooding. They also perceived floodable sites as less safe under storm conditions. However, more frequent experience of localized flooding was not associated with perceived safety of retention ponds under storm conditions. Some other contextual and socio-demographic factors (e.g., prior stormwater-related property damage, knowledge of and involvement in stormwater management issues, gender, age, race, and having children) also had notable effects on flood risk perception and perceived safety of NBS. We discuss the implications of these findings for urban flood risk management and NBS development.

How do floods affect insurance demand? Evidence from flood insurance take-up in Japan

This study examines the hypothetical impact of floods on people's flood insurance purchase decisions, and how this impact may differ among people with different socioeconomic, geographic, and financial literacy characteristics. We find a significant yet short-lived (1-year) impact of floods on people's demand for flood insurance at an ecological level (prefectures). Different aspects of flood damage have different impacts on flood insurance take-up, with human casualties having the greatest impact on people's perception of flood risk. We also find that groups with different socioeconomic characteristics, such as age, education, and insurance agent density, react differently to floods concerning insurance purchases. We confirm a positive relationship between objective risk exposure and people's perception of the flood experience. Finally, an analysis of the Financial Literacy Survey demonstrates the impact of three cognitive biases (loss aversion, myopic, herding) on flood insurance take-up. These findings provide empirical evidence for various psychological and behavioral theories, and important policy references for countries aiming to develop flood insurance in the future.

Flood risk perceptions and future migration intentions of Lagos residents

Coastal communities across the world face intense and frequent flooding due to the rise in extreme rainfall and storm surges associated with climate change. Adaptation is therefore crucial to manage the growing threat to coastal communities and cities. This case study focuses on Lagos, Nigeria, one of the world's largest urban centers where rapid urbanization, poor urban planning, degrading infrastructure, and inadequate preparedness compounds flood vulnerability. We situate flood risk perceptions within the context of climate-induced mobilities in Lagos, which no study has done, filling a necessary knowledge gap. Furthermore, we apply a unique approach to flood risk perception and its linkage to migration, by using three measures of risk – affect, probability, and consequence, as opposed to a singular measure. Results show that the affect measure of flood risk perception is significantly higher than probability and consequence measures. Furthermore, flood risk perception is shaped by prior experiences with flooding and proximity to hazard. The effect of proximity on risk perception differs across the three measures. We also found that flood risk perceptions and future migration intentions are positively correlated. These results demonstrate the usefulness of using multiple measures to assess flood risk perceptions, offering multiple pathways for targeted interventions and flood risk communication.

Climate change and glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk perceptions: An empirical study of Ghizer District, Gilgit-Baltistan Pakistan

Risk perception is gaining attention in disaster risk reduction and climate change-related studies. It plays a role in shaping the preparedness, adaptation, response, and resilience of vulnerable communities. However, the literature suggests that risk perception is contextually sensitive. There are limited studies that offer insights on the risk perception of climate change and related disaster events in an integrated manner. This study investigates the climate change and associated glacial lake outburst floods risk perceptions of the remotely located vulnerable communities in the northern mountainous region of Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan. The study employed the quantitative method of household surveys in vulnerable communities for data collection. An extensive literature review was conducted to select the key indicators to determine the risk perception in the selected communities. Indexing and multiple regression analyses were performed to draw the results of the study. GLOF risk perception has been found higher as compared to the climate change risk perception. Fear has been found as the most significant determinant of the GLOF risk perception, whereas socio-economic variables of gender, education, duration of living, and past hazard experiences have been found to be predictors of climate change risk perception. Also, most people did not believe in a link between climate change and GLOF events. The study also provides an important finding for an effective policy formulation that communities are aware of the life-threatening impacts of GLOFs, which may be used to increase community resilience against GLOFs through risk communication, preparedness campaigns, and climate change adaptation measures.

How the past influences the future: flood risk perception in informal settlements

ABSTRACT This study presents fresh evidence from an informal settlement in Accra, Ghana, examining how knowledge, understanding, experiences, and feelings about flood risk influence the flood risk perceptions of residents. The study adopted a mixed-methods approach, involving the collection and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data. We collected the data through seventeen interviews and 392 household surveys in Glefe, Accra, Ghana. We then conducted a thematic analysis of the qualitative data to understand participants' perceptions and the factors influencing their flood risk perceptions. The factors were used to produce hypotheses about flood risk perception. We subsequently performed regression analyses using the quantitative data to test the hypothesised relationships. The findings revealed that fear, flood experience, and coping experience were the major factors influencing residents' flood risk perceptions. Taken together, these factors had varying levels of influence on risk perceptions, with fear being the most statistically significant. However, it seems that experience held sway over residents' opinions, views, and perceptions. The perceived likelihood of future flooding events was therefore determined by residents' experience with flooding and coping. The study recommends incorporating the flooding and coping experiences of residents into adaptation mechanisms because these influence their perceptions of the flooding risks.

A comparative assessment of multi-criteria decision-making analysis and machine learning methods for flood susceptibility mapping and socio-economic impacts on flood risk in Abela-Abaya floodplain of Ethiopia

Floods have a terrible impact on people's lives and property all around the world. In this study, we evaluated the modeling capabilities of two Machine Learning (ML) approaches such as Naive Bayes Tree (NBT) and Naive Bayes (NB) and four Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) analysis techniques MABAC (multi-attributive border approximation area comparison), TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), VIKOR (Vise Kriterijumska Optimizacijaik Ompromisno Resenje), and SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) were applied in Abela-Abaya floodplain of Ethiopia. Sixteen flood influencing factors such as elevation, land use/cover (LULC), soil, aspect, geomorphology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), rainfall, distance from river (DR..), topographic wetness index (TWI), sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), geology, curvature, flow accumulation (FA), slope and flow direction (FD) were used as input parameters. Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve was used to assess and validate the models' predictive power (AUC). The NB model performed the best (AUC = 0.92), indicating that it is a viable strategy for determining flood-prone locations in order to properly plan and control flood hazards. Face to face interactive sessions were conducted with 160 respondents to find a coordinated analysis between the impact issues and the community's apprehension of flood danger and to analyze the socioeconomic impact of flood risk. The findings revealed that respondents' socio-demographic traits, flood experience, flood awareness, flood prevention responsibility, and government confidence building were all cohesively related to their opinion of flood danger. The estimated damage for households and farmland were $6249 and $5326 respectively by 2016 flood. The compilation of the findings of this study on flood susceptibility mapping and socioeconomic impact of flood risk seeks to enhance human perceptions of flood risk to minimize flood risk by enhancing communication about the issues and inspiring people of flood-prone areas to take measures for mitigating flood damage.

Determining Economic Losses and Factors Influencing Flood, Drought And Earthquake Risk Perception in Disasters-Prone Areas of Punjab, Pakistan

Climate-based natural disaster intensity and destruction severity have risen multifold particularly in developing countries owing to an inadequate understanding of disaster risk perception. In using the household data of 398 respondents and the ordered probit model this study focused to investigate the factors influencing flood, drought, and earthquake risk perception in Punjab, Pakistan. In selected study areas, the majority of respondent’s likelihood perceived of happening disasters which caused financial losses and severely influenced their livelihood. Disasters-prone-area inhabitants’ inadequate understanding of mitigation measures has increased their vulnerability as they have become ineffective to overcome such natural disasters' severe impacts. Empirical estimates of the study indicated as sources of income generating, education level, gender, status, and age of household significantly affect the respondent's risk perception about flood, drought, and earthquake. Females in contrast to male respondents have a limited understanding of mitigation measures and are not as much of capable of controlling disasters as they have become more vulnerable related to disaster effects. In developing the disaster-prone communities' socioeconomic status urgent-based measures are required such as the understanding of the disaster gender-based gap needs to be reduced through better household appreciative vigilance and alleviation of floods, drought, and earthquake disasters.

An empirical study of the effect of a flooding event caused by extreme rainfall on preventive behaviors against COVID-19.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, wearing masks, vaccinations, and maintaining a safe distance has become social behaviors advocated by the government and widely adopted by the public. At the same time, unpredictable natural disaster risks brought by extreme climate change compound difficulties during epidemics and cause systemic risks that influence the existing pattern of epidemic prevention. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the effect of natural disaster risk caused by climate change on the response to outbreaks in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. This study will focus on individual-level epidemic prevention behaviors, taking as an example the significant risk of severe destructive flooding caused by heavy rains in Henan, China, on July 20, 2021, which claimed 398 lives, to explore the effect of floods on the preventive behaviors of residents in the hardest hit areas against COVID-19. Through the multi-stage stratified random sampling of the affected residents in Zhengzhou, Xinxiang, Hebi, Luoyang, Anyang, and other cities in Henan Province, 2,744 affected people were surveyed via questionnaires. Through the linear regression model and moderating effect analysis, the study found that after floods, the individual's flood risk perception and response behaviors significantly correlated with the individual's prevention behaviors against COVID-19. Specifically, both flood risk perception and response behaviors strengthened the individual's prevention behaviors. Furthermore, the study also found that community risk preparation behavior and social capital can moderate the above relationship to a certain extent. The research can guide risk communication under the compound risk scenario and prevent risky public behavior under the consistent presence of COVID-19 in the community.

Flood risk perception, disaster preparedness and response in flood-prone urban communities of Rivers State.

Rapid urbanisation is contributing to increasing societal vulnerability to disaster. This study aimed at exploring the perception on flood risk and ascertaining the determinants of disaster preparedness among residents in flood-prone urban communities. Descriptive statistics and discriminant regression model were employed on primary data collected from 240 urban households across five communities at risk of flooding in the study area. The results showed that most households had low awareness of flood risk and exhibit low levels of adaptive capacity, having adopted little or no measures to deal with disaster floods. Also, awareness of flood risk was observed to discriminate the most between the two groups of adopters and nonadopters of flood preventive and management measures (proxy for disaster preparedness), followed by flood risk perception, age, location and household size.ContributionThe study suggests an integrated approach (a combination of preventive, protective and control measures) by all stakeholders, including government and other relevant bodies, increasing public awareness of flood risk and its attending effects for greater responsiveness, supporting communities in regular clearing of drainage areas and strictly regulating the construction of buildings, particularly in flood prone areas.

The Economic Impact of Flood Zone Designations on Residential Property Valuation in Miami-Dade County

In the United States, flood events are the most economically damaging type of natural disaster. Some of the most widely used tools for understanding property flood risk in the United States are the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Numerous previous studies have attempted to estimate the impact on property valuation from a home’s being mapped into a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) within FIRMs. However, as these maps have widely served as the source of data about true flood risk, there have been limits on the ability of researchers to disentangle these zone designation impacts as due to actual flood risk or as due to perceived flood risk. New advancements in flood modeling have allowed for the prediction of high-quality property-level flood inundation, both now and in the future. By integrating these flood modeling advancements, true flood risk may be controlled for in models looking to explore the avenues by which property valuation impacts occur. To this end, this study builds on insights from recent research looking at the valuation of single-family residential properties in Miami-Dade County (MDC), which utilizes a high-resolution floodplain model to estimate the impact of actual property inundation on sales prices. By controlling for actual property flood risk, impacts of SFHA designations are estimated in MDC through implementation of a difference in difference model which utilizes the release of updated FIRMS in 2009 and the 217,222 transactions and 120,693 property designation changes which occurred within the dataset.

Holding back the storm: Dam capitalization in residential and commercial property values

Large-scale flooding is becoming increasingly common due to prolonged and intensive rainfall caused by climate change. Communities have mitigated this risk by building flood protection, though it is unclear whether residents are aware of these public works or the protection they confer. We provide insight on this matter by examining whether apartment, commercial, and single-family home values responded to the completion of the Gokayama Dam in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. Using listing data between 2015 and 2019, we find apartments downstream from the Gokayama Dam experienced a 1.8% price increase relative to apartments in other floodplains after Typhoon Prapiroon hit western Japan and tested the dam. Renters used the natural disaster as a learning experience to update their perceptions of flood risk as opposed to the completion of the dam, suggesting a possible disconnect between perceptions of flood risk and objective risk. Higher price premiums are also observed in first floor units, units closer to rivers, and in areas where floodwaters are expected to exceed 2 m, while rental units designed as temporary housing received no premium. Finally, we find the capitalized gains from the apartment rental market are small in comparison to premiums paid by homeowners and commercial renters, where prices increased by 11.7% and 9.2% respectively. Taken altogether, the Gokayama Dam provides $146.5 million in downstream benefits each year, though it is unclear how long these price effects will last.