Climate change and glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk perceptions: An empirical study of Ghizer District, Gilgit-Baltistan Pakistan

Abstract

Risk perception is gaining attention in disaster risk reduction and climate change-related studies. It plays a role in shaping the preparedness, adaptation, response, and resilience of vulnerable communities. However, the literature suggests that risk perception is contextually sensitive. There are limited studies that offer insights on the risk perception of climate change and related disaster events in an integrated manner. This study investigates the climate change and associated glacial lake outburst floods risk perceptions of the remotely located vulnerable communities in the northern mountainous region of Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan. The study employed the quantitative method of household surveys in vulnerable communities for data collection. An extensive literature review was conducted to select the key indicators to determine the risk perception in the selected communities. Indexing and multiple regression analyses were performed to draw the results of the study. GLOF risk perception has been found higher as compared to the climate change risk perception. Fear has been found as the most significant determinant of the GLOF risk perception, whereas socio-economic variables of gender, education, duration of living, and past hazard experiences have been found to be predictors of climate change risk perception. Also, most people did not believe in a link between climate change and GLOF events. The study also provides an important finding for an effective policy formulation that communities are aware of the life-threatening impacts of GLOFs, which may be used to increase community resilience against GLOFs through risk communication, preparedness campaigns, and climate change adaptation measures.