Flood Risk Perception Research Articles

The effect of depth‐duration‐frequency model recalibration on rainfall return period estimates

AbstractIn November 2009 and December 2015, two record‐breaking 24‐hr rainfalls occurred in Cumbria, UK, significantly changing the perception of flood risk for local communities. FEH13, the current UK rainfall depth‐duration‐frequency (DDF) model, estimated return periods of around 1,000 years for both events. The previous model, FEH99, received criticism from panel engineers responsible for making technical safety decisions relating to reservoirs for appearing to estimate relatively short return periods for extreme events. Although FEH13 is more consistent with current probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates, there is high uncertainty in both models due to the limited number of extremes captured by UK rain gauges. Furthermore, neither model included the 2009 or 2015 event in its calibration. Here, we re‐calibrate FEH13 using additional gauged rainfall data collected in Cumbria during 2006–2016, including the record‐breaking 2009 and 2015 storms. Using the updated calibration data set reduces the estimated return periods of the 2009 and 2015 events to approximately 140 years each. This case study illustrates the considerable uncertainty in short‐sample records, demonstrates the importance of maximising the quantity of relevant calibration data, shows that perception of risk depends upon the method and data used, and illustrates the difficulty of separating trends and natural variability.

The Willingness to Pay for Flood Insurance

Flooding is the natural disaster that causes the most damage. Postflood, many families are not insured and do not have sufficient savings for rebuilding, and governmental aid can be limited. We undertake, using a stated preference survey, the first willingness-to-pay (WTP) elicitation for flood insurance in the United States. WTP increases with modeled flood risk and flood-risk perceptions. WTP for residents in our study area’s 100-year floodplain is 47% to 59% of the median flood insurance premium, which suggests the need for financial assistance for families who are at risk of flood damage and are unable to afford risk-based premiums.

How do people perceive flood risk? Findings from a public survey in Tuscany, Italy

AbstractThe study of risk perception (RP) has much increased in the last years to improve flood risk management. Effective communication requires an understanding of how the risk of flooding is perceived by residents of different areas. In this work, RP is investigated through a survey involving 483 people living in Tuscany. RP was assessed through a score built on four items covering personal, residence, and sociodemographic variables concerning flood RP. Results showed that: (a) flood RP was moderate; (b) RP was positively correlated with age, higher education, proximity to a river and direct experience; (c) people who experienced floods felt themselves to be more informed and prepared; (d) subjectively perceived risk and experts' risk assessment seemed generally correlated, even if people living in areas at “high risk” tend to underestimate the actual flood risk level; (e) the majority of the respondents considered the government and themselves as equally responsible for personal preparedness; and (f) less than 20% was aware of a Local Emergency Plan. The need of focusing on people living in the riskiest areas with targeted communication campaigns on risk awareness, hazard preparedness, and other implications of the findings in terms of communication strategies are discussed.

Why People (Do Not) Adopt the Private Precautionary and Mitigation Measures: A Review of the Issue from the Perspective of Recent Flood Risk Research

Based on the literature review, this paper synthesizes recent state of knowledge on flood risk perception and related human behaviors. The main attention is paid to private precautionary and mitigation measures, and the reasons why these are (not) adopted by agents such as individual households. Results of a wide range of relevant studies are presented and critically examined. The findings are presented within an interpretive framework established during the review process; six key themes (responsibility, risk perception, people and social environment, geography of risk, emotions, theories and conceptual models) and several sub-themes closely related to them were identified by the content/thematic analysis. These were then utilized to overview and discuss particular factors and issues involved, as well as various relevant theoretical underpinnings and conceptual models. The review identifies, illustrates, and addresses not only the consensual views and contradictory findings of flood risk research, but also several related and essential ambiguities, uncertainties, and knowledge gaps. Based on these findings, suggestions for future research are discussed, including the terminological, semantic, methodological, theoretical, and ethical aspects. The paper thus serves two main tasks: (a) It is a useful reference/departure point for those with research interests in topics and issues such as flood risk perception, flood risk protective and mitigation behaviors and measures, or flood risk management in general; and (b) it provides suggestions and incentives for future flood risk research agenda.

Understanding risk perception from floods: a case study from China.

Understanding and improving the public risk perception have become an important element in the management of flood risk. In China, the risk government is of so-called nationwide catastrophe response mode which is different from the widely adopted “bottom up” risk governance mode in the Western countries. Such a particular mode may make Chinese people perceive risk in a different way from people in other countries. Hence, a further discussion of risk perception is of great value in China. This paper presents a case study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in a city prone to floods. The relationship between risk perception and exposure was examined by spatial analysis. Meanwhile, inferential testing with chi-squared tests was undertaken regarding experience, social trust, and protective behaviors. Our results suggest that (1) the relationship between exposure and risk perception of people in Nanjing is positive and statistically significant, (2) flood experience was strongly related to risk perception, (3) trust showed a significant relationship to risk perception, and (4) people who have perceived the probability of floods and associated loss of life have a higher willingness to take more protective measures. These findings will help local government to develop effective flood risk communication strategies for improving public awareness creation, emergency response and preparedness.

The investigation of flood risk perception as a quantitative analysis from socio-demographic perspective

The priority of flood management planning is physical victimization and focuses on taking structural measures. Although this approach is an accurate approach, more information is needed in implementing efficient precautionary and planning decisions. It is an indisputable fact that the existence of nothing that is not sustainable in nature cannot continue. Hence, it is necessary to implement a planning decision suitable for the structure of the population living in the region so that the continuity of the policies to be carried out against natural hazards of hydrometeorological origin such as a flood is ensured. How the socio-demographic structures affect the flood risk perception of 245 people living in the city center of Bayburt is examined in this study. It is the first research conducted for the province of Bayburt for this perspective. The participants were asked to fill a questionnaire containing 24 items and consisting of 2 sections. T test and one-way ANOVA (one-way analysis of variance) statistical methods were used to ascertain the difference between the responses of the participants to the questionnaire, based on their demographic structure. As the result of the study, significant differences were observed between the expressions depicting flood risk perception and the participant's age, income levels and educational background. In addition, it has been noted that there is a positive relationship between education and income levels and flood risk perception.

Children's perceptions of flood risk and preparedness: A study after the May 2018 flooding in Golcuk, Turkey

Understanding children's risk perceptions and investigating the underlying factors are fundamental to learning more about how children interpret and respond to flood events. To date, there has been no published research about the flood risk perceptions of children in Turkey. This research aims to fill that gap, seeking a better understanding of children's flood risk perceptions to inform efforts to strengthen their resilience to flooding. We examined how flood experience shapes Turkish children's perceptions of flood risk and their level of preparedness. Children aged 11 to 14 years were surveyed, in six schools of Golcuk city, Turkey, before and after a local flood event that occurred on 27th May 2018. This research applied a mixed-method approach that collected and analysed both quantitative and qualitative data, using the Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure (PRISM) methodology to measure risk perception and preparedness. The research results show that there was no statistically significant difference in children's flood risk perception before and after the local flood event. However, the importance that children placed on preparedness increased after the flood event. The flood preparedness level of the children surveyed indicates that Turkish children have insufficient knowledge of effective flood preparedness activities: there is an urgent need to make them better prepared for floods. Our findings have implications for policy, especially for those living in flood risk areas. Catastrophic flood events are expected to increase because of climate change, so it is becoming increasingly important to understand the causes of flood risk better, how people perceive flood risk, and how they will respond to flood events. Therefore, flood management policies should incorporate the knowledge, skills, and capacities of children into disaster risk reduction strategies, aiming to reduce the impacts of future flood events.

CLIMATE RISK AVERSION OPTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE. A CASE OF INFORMATION COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY, MIXED CROPPING AND CAUTIONARY SAVINGS

The upsurge in frequency and severity of extreme weather events demands proactive conservation and modification of the environment for sustainable agricultural development. Farmers take cognizance of risk and uncertainty while making choice of appropriate farm management practices. The study examined climate risk aversion options for sustainable agricultural development in selected areas of Mpumalanga province. The stratified random sampling was adopted to interview 290 smallholder sugar cane farmers in Driekoppies, Nkomazi Local Municipality Mpumalanga, South Africa. The study used the multivariate model to determined possible correlation between the application and use of information communication technology, mixed farming and cautionary savings as climate risk management strategies. Findings extrapolated the relevance of climate risk management and adoption decision. The effect of dependent variables on covariate variables used in the analysis were not homogenous. Nevertheless, age of respondents, level of education, flood risk perception, farm size, risk aversion and off-farm activities were the independent variables that influenced the adoption of risk management approach in context. The risk valuation strategies on seasonal climate information by farmers is important.

Contemporary flood risk perceptions in England: Implications for flood risk management foresight

Although England has been experiencing major floods dating back thousands of years, the hazard is increasing in frequency and intensity, exacerbated by climate risks with potentially serious consequences. Despite attempts to mitigate climate risks (manifested via recurrent flooding) in line with international disaster risk reduction agendas, the impacts/effects of floods continue to increase in England. This is partly due to negligence in inculcating contemporary flood risk perceptions (FRP) into climate risk management (CRM) strategies. This research aims to investigate contemporary FRM in England through a qualitative case study approach in Wainfleet All Saints in Lincolnshire County that experienced unprecedented floods in June 2019. Empirical investigation was conducted with the flood-affected community members and flood managers with oversight of CRM in the region. Key findings reveal the June 2019 floods had both tangible and intangible impacts for the affected community with dreadful effects. Challenges to CRM revealed issues around limited funding; climate changes’ potential to increase flood risk and low community perception of their own risks reflected in poor/none-preparedness for contemporary floods. The multi-agency response to the June 2019 floods was found to be positive, albeit with a few concerns. Based on the analysis of the findings, a series of policy recommendations are proffered with the aim to spur organisational/institutional resilience to CRM. This article underscores the relevance to continuously include contemporary FRP into CRM strategies especially to enhance community participation and involvement in mitigating their own risks.

The Impact of Flood Risk on the Activity of the Residential Land Market in a Polish Cultural Heritage Town

The article attempts to determine the effect of perceived flood risk, based on identified flood hazard zones, on the level of activity in the market of land property designated for housing developments in the historical town of Sandomierz, Poland. The study employed graphical, analytical, quantitative methods, and spatial analyses with GIS tools. The proposed methodology, involving spatial interpolation of the phenomenon (Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW)) and an expert opinion survey, facilitates the assessment of the market activity in towns where transactions are scarce. Trade in property is lower in areas at risk of flooding than for the remaining parts of the town. The potential flood hazard zone affects both the activity of the property market and the average prices of land. The study demonstrated that both a flood and flood risk affect the levels of market activity and the prices of residential land. However, this impact differs at various times and locations and is greater immediately after a flood. Properties located in the most attractive location within an area are characterised by a greater sensitivity to this risk.

An impact assessment of disaster education on children’s flood risk perceptions in China: Policy implications for adaptation to climate extremes

BackgroundChildren’s flood risk perceptions that include their awareness and behaviors, can be cultivated through disaster education, which is crucial for improving disaster resilience and adaptation to climate extremes. However, education’s co-influencing effect along with family and society was unclear. This study investigated a three-year disaster education program conducted in schools in Sichuan Province, China. MethodIn three pilot counties, we used stratified cluster sampling in 2016 and 2018 to separately survey the risk perceptions of 2,105 children (baseline) and 1710 children (post-intervention), respectively, aged 8–12, in 45 primary schools. The Ordinary Least Squares Regression and Propensity Score Matching Method (PSM) were used to assess the effectiveness of classroom education, propaganda poster, professional guidance, social education (television, radio, friends, and internet), and risk-related parent-child interactions. Interaction items and Structure Equation Model (SEM) were performed to identify their co-influencing mechanisms. Finally, the intervention effect was assessed by categorizing different levels of parent-child interactions and left-behind status. ResultThe classroom education (Coeff = 0.040; P < 0.05), propaganda poster (Coeff = 0.024; P < 0.05), and professional guidance (Coeff = 0.016; P < 0.1) had significantly positive effects on children’s flood risk perception. But these effects were found to be underestimated using PSM. Interaction effects between disaster education and parent-child interaction were statistically significant, and parent-child interaction was a moderating factor for improving risk perception (standardized indirect effect = 0.055, p < 0.001). Additionally, the mean score of risk perception increased by 118% in 2018 compared with the baseline. It was found that the higher the level of risk-related parent-child interaction, the higher the mean scores of risk perception (Coeff = 0.055; P < 0.001) irrespective whether they are left-behind children. ConclusionTo improve disaster resilience and climate change adaptation, risk-related parent-child interaction should be considered in disaster education, which is an effective way to promote children’s risk perceptions.

Living with Recurrent Flooding Risks in Bangladesh: Understanding Household Perception of Riverine Flood Disaster Risks and its Determinants

Riverine people are often affected by floods because of their proximity to the riverbank. Numerous studies were conducted on the physical characteristics of floods; however, there is still inadequate knowledge on the perception of flood risk of riverine households in Bangladesh. The present study explores the risk perception of riverine households to recurrent flood disaster and its associated determinants. Using systematic random sampling technique, 377 members from 377 households (one person from each household) were interviewed from the right bank of the Teesta River, Bangladesh. The results revealed that the sex of respondents, household’s income, house location, and extents of damage to the houses significantly influenced respondent’s ris perception. ale and female had a different perception of flood risk. Respondents whose houses were destroyed completely were found to be more fatalists to report their concern about the future flood. The majority of the respondents underestimated the likelihood of future flood occurrence. The findings of this study offer important implications for the risk managers to provide training to the riverine people to raise their awareness and perception about flood risk.

The Willingness to Pay for Flood Insurance

Flooding is the natural disaster that causes the most damage. Post-flood, many families are not insured and do not have sufficient savings for rebuilding and governmental aid can be limited. We undertake, using a stated preference survey, the first willingness-to-pay (WTP) elicitation for flood insurance in the U.S. WTP increases with modeled flood risk and flood risk perceptions. WTP for residents in our study area’s 100-year floodplain is 47% to 59% of the median flood insurance premium, which suggests the need for financial assistance for families that are at risk of flood damage and are unable to afford risk-based premiums.

How flood risks shape policies: flood exposure and risk perception in Swiss municipalities

Despite an increasing number of people exposed to flood risks in Europe, flood risk perception remains low and effective flood risk management policies are rarely implemented. It becomes increasingly important to understand how local governments can design effective flood risk management policies to address flood risks. In this article, we study whether high flood exposure and flood risk perception correlate with the demand for a specific design of flood risk management policies. We take the ideal case of Switzerland and analyze flood risk management portfolios in 18 flood-prone municipalities along the Aare River. We introduce a novel combination of risk analysis and public policy data: we analyze correlations between recorded flood exposure data and survey data on flood risk perception and policy preferences for selected flood risk management measures. Our results indicate that local governments with high flood risk perception tend to prefer non-structural measures, such as spatial planning and ecological river restoration, to infrastructure measures. In contrast, flood exposure is neither linked to flood risk perception nor to policy preferences. We conclude that flood risk perception is key: it can decisively affect local governments’ preferences to implement specific diversified policy portfolios including more preventive or integrated flood risk management measures. These findings imply that local governments in flood-prone areas should invest in raising their population’s awareness capacity of flood risks and keep it high during periods without flooding.

Residents' perception of flood risk and urban stream restoration using multi‐criteria decision analysis

AbstractThis research examines how individual preferences for the major functions of stream restoration processes are associated with flood prevention and risk mitigation in Johnson Creek of Portland, Oregon, USA. We first reviewed a set of results from an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model to rank the major stream restoration functions and compared citizens' preferences for “flood prevention” using ordinary least squares regression. Our results show that the perceptions and interests of citizens may be centred on the inconvenience of everyday life arising from the previous flood events. Residents in the highly urbanized downstream regions showed a higher sensitivity to flooding than those living in the upper regions of the watershed. Community participation and annual incomes are positively related to flood risk perception in more developed downstream regions, while ecological or development goals associated with property protection are positively associated with higher flood risk perception in the less developed upper regions. Our findings of citizen perceptions can be adopted to help local government leaders and households mitigate flood risk while also achieving multiple benefits from stream restoration projects.

From the general to the specific: the influence of confidence and trust on flood risk perception

This study advances scholarly debate on the impact of confidence and trust on flood risk perceptions using data from a random sample of 403 residents in New Orleans, a U.S. coastal city with hundreds of miles of levees to protect the city from flooding. The research focuses on several predictors including specific trust measures of local, state, and federal authorities, sociodemographic characteristics, and experience with flood damage. Using ordinal logistic regression, we find that residents who perceive the levee system as unlikely to protect their homes and the city are significantly more likely to perceive an increased risk of flooding. Previous flood experience, age, female gender, and race were also significant predictors of flood risk perception. In contrast to prevailing risk research that has found that general trust and general confidence negatively affect risk perception, our findings show mixed support for the hypothesis that higher levels of confidence and trust result in lower perceptions of risk. Our findings reveal the nuances of risk perception and suggest that specific notions of trust and confidence can have positive and negative influences on flood risk perception depending on respondent views toward flood protection systems and specific institutions and government agencies.

Flood risk perceptions and coping capacities among the retired population, with implications for risk communication: A study of residents in a north Wales coastal town, UK

Flood risk communication strategies have been ineffective for older adults as they have failed to accommodate diversity, viewing retired populations as homogenous. There have been calls from academics and NGOs to develop more detailed understandings of older adults' risk experiences to inform disaster risk reduction (DRR) and communication approaches. We conducted in-depth interviews with twelve members of the retired population, of which the majority happened to be members of a local church, in a flood risk area of north Wales, UK, in 2018 to ascertain risk perceptions, coping capacities, and risk communication preferences to inform more age-centred approaches. Results present retired population are a diverse group with varying perceptions and capacities. While personal risk perceptions were low overall, coping capacities varied and were primarily social in nature, which can be sustained despite mobility or other limitations typical of older age. Participants expressed preference for traditional/interpersonal risk communication methods, such as telephone calls or home visits. A key recommendation from this study is that risk communication and DRR practices should adopt people-centric approaches that are co-produced and respect the differentiated vulnerabilities, capacities and needs of at-risk populations. This study and its findings are important is providing a more nuanced picture of the vulnerabilities and capacities of the particularly at-risk population of older adults. We must ensure that future DRR research, policies and practices focus on all experiences of at-risk populations, not only the dominant narratives or extremes of groups, to capture differences within groups’ abilities to support more effective community DRR.

Impacts of green infrastructure on flood risk perceptions in Hong Kong

To better address climate unpredictability, green infrastructure is increasingly deployed alongside gray infrastructure as an alternative strategy for flood risk mitigation. Previous research has not clearly distinguished the flood-mitigation effects of green infrastructure at the local scale due to its complex range of functions including socioeconomic benefits, ecosystem services, and amenity value. Using data on 3768 housing sales from 2009 to 2019 in Hong Kong, we employ a difference-in-differences framework to examine the effect of green infrastructure on perceptions of flood risk mitigation, with housing prices as a proxy for risk perception. We find a positive effect of green infrastructure on the value of nearby housing. The effect does not exist in apartment units on higher floors, however. This vertical discrepancy further suggests that the observed pricing effects are due to green infrastructure’s capacity to reduce perceptions of flood risk. By contrast, properties near conventional gray infrastructure show no evidence of such effects. The results thus provide quantitative evidence that supports the ongoing shift toward green infrastructure as a form of climate change adaptation.

Flood risk perception and its determinants among rural households in two communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Risk perception plays a vital part in flood risk management and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims at first to measure the risk perception of the vulnerable households in the rural areas of Pakistan and, second, to assess the determinants and to estimate their impacts on risk perception among different groups of households. Data were collected through questionnaire survey from 382 respondents in two districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. Risk perception was measured through a Likert scale for a set of indicators, and the composite index was calculated. Moreover, univariate and multivariate logistic models were applied to explore the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Results of risk perception show that 50.52% of the respondents perceived a high risk of floods in the study area. Results of regression models show that the age group 40–50 years was less likely to perceive a high risk of floods. Respondents with flood experience, education (higher secondary and above), household location (near the bank of streams) and household distance from the river (≤ 500) were more likely to perceive high floods risk. Furthermore, respondents in the riverine flood-prone areas perceived high flood risk than respondents in the flash flood-prone regions. The study contributes in terms of useful information about the risk perception of floods and the determinants of flood risk perception in rural areas. These findings can help the provincial disaster management authorities and local disaster management units in understanding flood risk and implementing relevant interventions at the local level that can be used in adaptation to floods and other climate-induced disasters.

Swimming alone? Why linking flood risk perception and behavior requires more than “it's the individual, stupid”

AbstractA common assertion in discussions of flooding is that risk perception is critical and is linked to risk‐mitigating behavior. Furthermore, many assert that the adverse effects of floods could be reduced by changes in risk communication, thereby influencing risk perception to foster mitigating behavior. We argue that these assertions are based on quite questionable underlying assumptions: That stakeholders are generally aware of flood risk, that they have the capacity to engage in disaster risk reduction, and that their actions can be effective. The belief in and policies influenced by these three questionable assertions support, in turn, policies that shift responsibility for flood risk reduction onto individuals and homeowners, without regard for social and spatial justice issues. In contrast, we argue that context matters to understanding the complexity of the relation between flood risk perception and behavior, local power relations, and other constraints and opportunities that affect stakeholders. While the academic community has long played a pivotal role in supporting practical flood risk management, future research should take a more critical perspective on the underlying assumptions and focus on improving coordination across theories, methods, and variables, fostering comparative studies across disciplines, contexts, and scales.This article is categorized under:Engineering Water &gt; Planning WaterHuman Water &gt; Water as Imagined and RepresentedScience of Water &gt; Water Extremes