A place-based risk appraisal model for exploring residents' attitudes toward nature-based solutions to flood risks.

Abstract

Nature-based solutions (NBS) have gained popularity as a sustainable and effective way of dealing with increasing flood risks. One of the key factors that often hinders the successful implementation of NBS is residents' opposition to their implementation. In this study, we argue that the place where a hazard exists should be considered a critical contextual factor alongside flood risk appraisals and perceptions of NBS themselves. We have developed a theoretical framework-the "Place-based Risk Appraisal Model (PRAM)"-that draws on constructs inspired by theories of place and risk perception. A citizen survey (n=304) was conducted in five municipalities in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, where dike relocation and floodplain restoration projects have been conducted along the Elbe River. Structural equation modeling was adopted to test the PRAM. Attitudes toward the projects were assessed in terms of "perceived risk-reduction effectiveness" and "supportive attitude." With regard to risk-related constructs, well-communicated information and perceived co-benefits were consistently positive factors for both perceived risk-reduction effectiveness and supportive attitude. Trust in local flood risk management was a positive and threat appraisal a negative predictor of perceived risk-reduction effectiveness affecting "supportive attitude" only through "perceived risk-reduction effectiveness." Regarding place attachment constructs, place identity was a negative predictor of a supportive attitude. The study emphasizes that risk appraisal, pluralities of place contexts to each individual, and their relations are key for determining attitudes toward NBS. Understanding these influencing factors and their interrelationships enables us to provide theory- and evidence-based recommendations for the effective realization of NBS.