Oil Spill Model Research Articles

Oil spill modeling in deep waters: Estimation of pseudo-component properties for cubic equations of state from distillation data

Deep-water oil spills represent a major, localized threat to marine ecosystems. Multi-purpose computer models have been developed to predict the fate of spilled oil. These models include databases of pseudo-components from distillation cut analysis for hundreds of oils, and have been used for guiding response action, damage assessment, and contingency planning for marine oil spills. However, these models are unable to simulate the details of deep-water, high-pressure chemistry. We present a new procedure to calculate the chemical properties necessary for such simulations that we validate with 614 oils from the ADIOS oil library. The calculated properties agree within 20.4% with average values obtained from data for measured compounds, for 90% of the chemical properties. This enables equation-of-state calculations of dead oil density, viscosity, and interfacial tension. This procedure enables development of comprehensive oil spill models to predict the behavior of petroleum fluids in the deep sea.

Application of computational fluid dynamics simulation for submarine oil spill

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes are being increasingly used in the simulation of submarine oil spills. This study focuses on the process of oil spills, from damaged submarine pipes, to the sea surface, using numerical models. The underwater oil spill model is developed, and a description of the governing equations is proposed, along with modifications required for the particalization of the control volume. Available experimental data were introduced to evaluate the validity of the CFD predictions, the results of which proved to be in good agreement with the experimental data. The effects of oil leak rate, leak diameter, current velocity, and oil density are investigated, by the validated CFD model, to estimate the undersea leakage time, the lateral migration distance, and surface diffusion range when the oil reaches the sea surface. Results indicate that the leakage time and lateral migration distance increase with decreasing leak rates and leak diameter, and increase with increasing current velocity and oil density. On the other hand, a large leak diameter, high density, high leak rate, or fast currents result in a greater surface diffusion range. The findings and analysis presented here will provide practical predictions of oil spills, and guidance for emergency rescues.

Oil spill modeling: computational tools, analytical frameworks, and emerging technologies

Following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010, a substantial body of research has focused on the development of computational tools and analytical frameworks for modeling oil spill events. Much of this work is dedicated to deepening our understanding of the interactions between oil, fragile ecosystems, and the environment, as well as the impacts of oil on human settlements which are vulnerable to spill events. These advances in oil spill modeling and associated analytics have not only increased the efficiency of spill interdiction and mitigation efforts, they have also helped to nurture proactive, versus reactive, response strategies and plans for local and regional stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to provide a progress report on the wide range of computational tools, analytical frameworks, and emerging technologies which are necessary inputs for a complete oil spill modeling package. Specifically, we explore the use of relatively mature tools, such as dedicated spill modeling packages, geographic information systems (GIS), and remote sensing, as well emerging technologies such as aerial and aquatic drones and other in-situ sensing technologies. The integration of these technologies and the advantages associated with using a geographic lens for oil spill modeling are discussed.

Impact of error in ocean dynamical background, on the transport of underwater spilled oil

Based on a validated underwater oil spill model and the hydrodynamic background provided by an unstructured grid, finite-volume, coastal ocean model (FVCOM), a series of numerical experiments are conducted to study the impact of error in ocean dynamical background currents on the 3D transport of underwater spilled oil, in terms of three metrics including oil centroid position, sweeping area, and sweeping volume. Numerical result shows that a larger error in ocean dynamical background currents results in a larger model error expectation and uncertainty for all three metrics. As model time increases, the model error mainly increases and the error growth rate varies unevenly. The sensitivity of the oil spill model to background current error can be interpreted as an integrated result of the temporal and spatial variations of the background current and the movement of oil droplets of different sizes.

A Modeling Study on the Oil Spill of M/V Marathassa in Vancouver Harbour

The M/V Marathassa oil spill occurred on 8 April 2015 in the English Bay. In the present study, the trajectory and the transport mechanism of the spilled oil have been studied by using the three-dimensional and particle-based Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) model forced by the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). FVCOM provided the hydrodynamic variables used by the oil spill model of OSCAR. The results showed that the fraction of the oil on the water surface and on the shoreline, as well as the amount of oil recovered were affected by the time of the initial release, the overall duration of the discharge, wind and recovery actions. The hindcast study of the M/V Marathassa oil spill showed that the likely starting time for the discharge was between 14:00 and 15:00, on 8 April 2015. The release may have lasted for a relatively long time (assumed to be 22 h in this study). The results of modeling in this study were found reasonably acceptable allowing for further application in risk assessment studies in the English Bay and Vancouver Harbour. The trajectory of the spill was mainly controlled by the tidal currents, which were strongly sensitive to the local coastline and topography of First Narrows and that in the central harbour. The model results also suggested that a high-resolution model, which was able to resolve abrupt changes in the coastlines and topography, was necessary to simulate the oil spill in the harbour.

Simulation of the 2003 Foss Barge - Point Wells Oil Spill: A Comparison between BLOSOM and GNOME Oil Spill Models

The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL’s) Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) are compared. Increasingly complex simulations are used to assess similarities and differences between the two models’ components. The simulations presented here are forced by ocean currents from a Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) implementation that has excellent skill in representing tidal motion, and with observed wind data that compensates for a coarse vertical ocean model resolution. The comprehensive comparison between GNOME and BLOSOM presented here, should aid modelers in interpreting their results. Beyond many similarities, aspects where both models are distinct are highlighted. Some suggestions for improvement are included, e.g., the inclusion of temporal interpolation of the forcing fields (BLOSOM) or the inclusion of a deflection angle option when parameterizing wind-driven processes (GNOME). Overall, GNOME and BLOSOM perform similarly, and are found to be complementary oil spill models. This paper also sheds light on what drove the historical Point Wells spill, and serves the additional purpose of being a learning resource for those interested in oil spill modeling. The increasingly complex approach used for the comparison is also used, in parallel, to illustrate the approach an oil spill modeler would typically follow when trying to hindcast or forecast an oil spill, including detailed technical information on basic aspects, like choosing a computational time step. We discuss our successful hindcast of the 2003 Point Wells oil spill that, to our knowledge, had remained unexplained. The oil spill models’ solutions are compared to the historical Point Wells’ oil trajectory, in time and space, as determined from overflight information. Our hindcast broadly replicates the correct locations at the correct times, using accurate tide and wind forcing. While the choice of wind coefficient we use is unconventional, a simplified analytic model supported by observations, suggests that it is justified under this study’s circumstances. We highlight some of the key oceanographic findings as they may relate to other oil spills, and to the regional oceanography of the Salish Sea, including recommendations for future studies.

Effects of mesoscale eddies on behavior of an oil spill resulting from an accidental deepwater blowout in the Black Sea: an assessment of the environmental impacts.

Because of the environmental sensitivity of the Black Sea, as a semi-enclosed sea, any subsea oil spill can cause destructive impacts on the marine environment and beaches. Employing numerical modeling as a prediction tool is one of the most efficient methods to understand oil spill behavior under various environmental forces. In this regard, a coupled circulation/deepsea oil spill model has been applied to the Black Sea to address the behavior of the oil plume resulting from a representative hypothetical deepwater blowout. With climatological forcing, the hydrodynamic module based on DieCAST ocean circulation model realistically reproduces seasonally-varying circulation from basin-scale dominant structures to meso- and sub-mesoscale elements. The oil spill model utilizes pre-calculated DieCAST thermo-hydrodynamic fields and uses a Lagrangian tracking algorithm for predicting the displacement of a large number of seeded oil droplets, the sum of which forms the rising oil plume resulting from a deepwater blowout. Basic processes affecting the transport, dispersal of oil and its fate in the water column are included in the coupled model. A hypothetical oil source was set at the bottom, at the northwestern edge of the Shatsky Ridge in the area east of the Crimea Peninsula where the oil exploration/development is likely to be planned. Goals of the study are to elucidate the behavior of the subsea oil plume and assess scales of contamination of marine environment and coastlines resulting from potential blowouts. The two 20-day scenarios with the oil released by a hypothetical blowout were examined to reveal combined effects of the basin-scale current, near-shore eddies, and winds on the behavior of the rising oil plume and its spreading on the surface. Special attention is paid to the Caucasian near-shore anticyclonic eddy which is able to trap surfacing oil, detain it and deliver it to shores. The length of contaminated coastlines of vulnerable Crimean and Caucasian coasts are assessed along with amounts of oil beached and deposited.

Risk assessment of oil spills in the Chinese Bohai Sea for prevention and readiness

Oil spill accidents occur with increasing frequency in the Chinese Bohai Sea because of the presence of extensive number of oil platforms and oil pipelines the Chinese Bohai region. An appropriate risk assessment for oil spill prevention and readiness is necessary. Risk assessment for the entire Chinese Bohai Sea based on a quantitative method is proposed. We created a hypothetical simulation of oil spill trajectories based on an oil spill model for 28 oil platforms in the Chinese Bohai region in 2010. Then, we mapped a risk index in the study areas based on a combination of oil spill trajectories and shoreline susceptibility data. Five high-risk areas were identified in the entire Chinese Bohai Sea. Detailed suggestions for prevention and readiness are described here. These results can help in developing a risk assessment of oil spills in the Chinese Bohai Sea and serve as a useful analytic tool for slick-related emergencies.

Using a genetic algorithm to improve oil spill prediction

The performance of oil spill models is strongly influenced by multiple parameters. In this study, we explored the ability of a genetic algorithm (GA) to determine optimal parameters without the need for time-consuming manual attempts. An evaluation function integrating the percentage of coincidence between the predicted polluted area and the observed spill area was proposed for measuring the performance of a Lagrangian oil particle model. To maximise the objective function, the oil spill was run numerous times with continuously optimised parameters. After many generations, the GA effectively reduced discrepancies between model results and observations of a real oil spill. Subsequent validation indicated that the oil spill model predicted oil slick patterns with reasonable accuracy when equipped with optimal parameters. Furthermore, multiple objective optimisation for observations at different times contributed to better model performance.

Comparative Risk Assessment of spill response options for a deepwater oil well blowout: Part 1. Oil spill modeling

Oil spill model simulations of a deepwater blowout in the Gulf of Mexico De Soto Canyon, assuming no intervention and various response options (i.e., subsea dispersant injection SSDI, in addition to mechanical recovery, in-situ burning, and surface dispersant application) were compared. Predicted oil fate, amount and area of surfaced oil, and exposure concentrations in the water column above potential effects thresholds were used as inputs to a Comparative Risk Assessment to identify response strategies that minimize long-term impacts. SSDI reduced human and wildlife exposure to volatile organic compounds; dispersed oil into a large water volume at depth; enhanced biodegradation; and reduced surface water, nearshore and shoreline exposure to floating oil and entrained/dissolved oil in the upper water column. Tradeoffs included increased oil exposures at depth. However, since organisms are less abundant below 200 m, results indicate that overall exposure of valued ecosystem components was minimized by use of SSDI.

Oil Droplet Size Distributions in Deep-Sea Blowouts: Influence of Pressure and Dissolved Gases.

To date, experimental investigations to determine the droplet size distribution (DSD) of subsea oil spills were mostly conducted at surface conditions, i.e. at atmospheric pressure, and with dead, i.e. purely liquid, oils. To investigate the influence of high hydrostatic pressure and of gases dissolved in the oil on the DSD, experiments with a downscaled blowout are conducted in a high-pressure autoclave at 150 bar hydrostatic pressure. Jets of "live", i.e. methane-saturated, crude oil and n-decane are compared to jets of "dead" hydrocarbon liquids in artificial seawater. Experiments show that methane dissolved in the liquid oil increases the volume median droplet diameter significantly by up to 97%. These results are not in good accordance with state-of-the-art drop formation models, which are based on oil-only experiments at atmospheric pressure, and therefore show the need for a modification of such models which incorporates effects of hydrostatic pressure and dissolved gases for the modeling of deep-sea oil spills and blowouts.

The application of ship oil spill risk prediction in Dongying emergency capacity planning

This study combines the hydrodynamic prediction model MIKE21 and the oil spill model OILMAP. Using the hydrodynamic prediction model to provide the accurate tidal current field for oil spill model, we apply oil particle tracing method and stochastic simulation method to predict and evaluate the risk of oil spill in the planned port area. The numerical simulation results show that the current and the wind will directly affect the range and trajectory of the oil film. Once the oil spill accident happens, the area with probability greater than 70% is about 191.5km2, which is mainly affected by 5km within two sides of port. Through risk prediction and assessment, we can provide necessary support for the regional emergency forces.

The Implications of Oil Exploration off the Gulf Coast of Florida

In the United States (U.S.), oil exploration and production remain critical economic engines for local, state, and federal economies. Recently, the U.S. Department of the Interior expressed interest in expanding offshore oil production by making available lease areas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. West Coast and East Coast, as well as offshore Alaska. With the promise of aiding in energy independence, these new lease areas could help solidify the U.S. as one of the world’s largest oil-producing countries, while at the same time bolstering the local and regional energy job sectors. Of all the newly proposed lease areas, the Gulf Coast of Florida is particularly contentious. Opponents of drilling in the area cite the sensitive ecosystems and the local and state tourism economy that depends heavily on the numerous beaches lining Florida’s coast. In this analysis, we use a data-driven spatial analytic approach combined with advanced oil spill modeling to determine the potential impact of oil exploration off of Florida’s Gulf Coast given a loss-of-control event. It is determined that plume behavior varies drastically depending on the location of the spill but that overall impacts are comparable across all spill scenario sites, highlighting the necessity of contingency-type analyses. Implications for spill response are also discussed.

Oil Spill Model Operational Application in Damage Assessment and Case Study of Validation

Oil spill modeling is an important technical measure to evaluate the impact of oil spills scientifically. Because of the great uncertainty in its early development, simulation results have not been used as the basis of judgments for environmental compensation cases. Despite this, scientific research institutes in many countries, including China, are still devoted to the research and development of oil spill models and their applications in environmental damage assessment, which makes it possible to apply them in the judicial arbitration of damages claims. The relevant regulations on the Chinese compensation fund for oil pollution damage from ships and the judicial authentication of environmental damage have also accredited such kind of modeling applications. In order to enhance the applicability of oil spill model further, it is necessary to expand its damage assessment function, and to test, calibrate and verify the accuracy of the evaluation. To this end, the author adopts the self-developed 3-dimentionaloil spill model—CWCM to simulate the “Tasman Sea” oil spill accident. By comparing the simulation results of tidal current field, wind field, oil spill trajectory with those observed, the model coding and parameter selection are corrected, and it is realized that the simulation being basically consistent with the measured results. In addition, the results of the scale reduced simulation test of oil spill weathering are applied verifying and perfecting the weathering model of CWCM. The technical requirements and process for operational application of oil spill model in judicial arbitration are also put forward. In view of the rapid simulation function, the operational updating program for oil spill weathering model, coupled current model and dynamic update wind field diagnostic model are put forward in order to further improve the operational evaluation function and evaluation efficiency of oil spill model.

Integrated Hydrodynamic and Oil Spill Modeling using OILMAP Software for Environment Protection of Oil Spill in Cilacap Regency

Environmental impact due to oil spill comes from several activities such as oil and gas business unit, port facilities, and shipping line. Cilacap regency as one of the areas with high marine productivity in Indonesia has a history of oil spill incident during 2000-2018. One of the information needed in determining the oil spill response strategy to minimize the environmental impact of the oil spill in Cilacap regency is the prediction of oil spill movement. The purpose of this paper is to predict the oil spill movement in Cilacap regency. A lot of studies had been conducted on the oil spill, but there is still lacking further study that integrating Geographic Information System (GIS), hydrodynamic and oil spill to identify the potential environmental impact of the oil spill and develop the response strategy. Method use of this paper is a quantitative method, integrated hydrodynamic and oil spill using OILMAP software. Data use of this paper is land water data, current data, wind data, and spill information. Results of this paper are in the northwest monsoon, the oil spill moves to east and northeast toward the Indian Ocean. Southeast monsoon, the oil spill moves to west and northwest toward the Segara Anakan Lagoon. This paper will contribute to realizing some oil and gas business unit, port facilities, and shipping industries to concerned about the impact of oil spill and do the sustainable business.

Приветственное слово от издателя Института океанологии им. П.П. Ширшова РАН

Dear Colleagues! In early 2017, the Directorate and the Academic Council of the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences (IO RAS) made a decision to revive the «Journal of Oceanological Research», which was published in the Institute from 1959 to 1993. As a rule, all issues of the Journal contained results of comprehensive studies of the World Ocean performed in international projects. The first issues of the Journal were devoted to the results of the International Geophysical Year of 1957 – 1958, in the early 1970s they were devoted to the «Polygon-70» experiment, then to the studies of the Western boundary currents in the Atlantic Ocean, and since 1979 – to the results of the Soviet-American experiment «POLIMODE». Unfortunately, in 1993, the last 44 th issue marked the end of the Journal’s publication. In your hands you have the new 45 th issue of the «Journal of Oceanological Research», which was born thanks to the efforts of the Editorial board and the Editorial staff. In a short time they managed to revive the Journal in its continuity, to obtain all the necessary permits for the publication of the Journal in an electronic and hard copy, to create a web-site of the Journal (http://www.jor.ocean.ru/), and also to collect engaging materials for publication in a new issue. In the Journal you will find the results of investigations of the thermohaline structure and vortex dynamics of waters in various regions of the World Ocean, modeling of the processes of distribution of suspended matter in coastal waters, modeling of oil spills, application of technical means to study the marine environment, the bottom and underwater objects, other physical and biological processes and phenomena in the ocean. In the same issue you will find the section “Personalities” about outstanding oceanographers who left a visible mark in science and worked with us for many years. Among them are L.M. Brekhovskikh and K.N. Fedorov; this year, Grigory Isaakovich Barenblatt has celebrated his 90 th anniversary, and Walter Munk (USA) – his 100 th anniversary! Surprisingly, the paths of these people repeatedly crossed in life, as evidenced by the photographs in the Journal. I wish the « Journal of Oceanological Research » success, impressive materials, publication activity of contributors, a reach “portfolio”, high citation, and international recognition. The Directorate of the Institute will support the development of the Journal, since we consider this to be one of the priority tasks in the Development Strategy of the IO RAS. Dr. A.V. Sokov Interim Director P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology

Oil spill modeling

Oil spill modeling is fundamental for planning and preparing for, as well as responding to and mitigating, actual spill events. As a result, significant research effort has been directed toward developing analytical approaches for deepening our understanding of spill risk, community vulnerability, oil behavior, spill outcomes, and impacts. The purpose of this paper is to provide a synthesis of the oil spill risk assessment and impact modeling literature, with a focus on the vulnerability of local environmental, ecological, and community systems, as well as the geographic processes associated with modeling spills and transforming these data into a robust and meaningful impact assessments. The results of this progress report reveal a number of methodological and substantive commonalities across the scientific literature. Moreover, the synthesis of this literature should provide researchers with a strong foundation for pursuing future work in this domain.

The sensitivity of the surface oil signature to subsurface dispersant injection and weather conditions

Subsea blowouts have the potential to spread oil across large geographical areas, and subsea dispersant injection (SSDI) is a response option targeted at reducing the impact of a blowout, especially reducing persistent surface oil slicks. Modified Weber scaling was used to predict oil droplet sizes with the OSCAR oil spill model, and to evaluate the surface oil volume and area when using SSDI under different conditions. Generally, SSDI reduces the amount of oil on the surface, and creates wider and thinner surface oil slicks. It was found that the reduction of surface oil area and volume with SSDI was enhanced for higher wind speeds. Overall, given the effect of SSDI on oil volume and weathering, it may be suggested that tar ball formation, requiring thick and weathered oil, could possibly be reduced when SSDI is used.

A hindcast of the Bohai Bay oil spill during June to August 2011

An operational three-dimensional oil spill model is developed by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), State Oceanic Administration, China, and the model has been running for 9 a. On June 4 and 17, 2011, oil is spilled into the sea water from two separate oil platforms in the Bohai Bay, i.e., Platforms B and C of Penglai 19-3 oilfield. The spill causes pollution of thousands of square kilometres of sea area. The NMEFC’s oil spill model is employed to study the Penglai 19-3 oil-spill pollution during June to August 2011. The wind final analysis data of the NMEFC, which is based on a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, are analyzed and corrected by comparing with the observation data. A corrected current filed is obtained by forcing the princeton ocean model (POM) with the corrected wind field. With the above marine environmental field forcing the oil spill model, the oil mass balance and oil distribution can be produced. The simulation is validated against the observation, and it is concluded that the oil spill model of the NMEFC is able to commendably simulate the oil spill distribution. Thus the NMEFC’s oil spill model can provide a tool in an environmental impact assessment after the event.

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009–2012 and 2050–2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC’s A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in “typical” outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.