Abstract
We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009–2012 and 2050–2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC’s A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in “typical” outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.
Highlights
Human activity in the Arctic is always associated with some risk of damage to the environment
Ensemble simulations are commonly used in the planning phase of new petroleum developments, and serve two goals: First, to provide the probabilities of for example beaching of oil, for a further Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) where potential damage to natural resources will be considered, and second, to inform contingency planning for oil spill response, giving guidance on required amounts and distribution of response equipment (Barker and Healy 2001)
From the results of the ensemble simulations, we find, not unexpectedly, that the presence of high ice cover will significantly alter the dynamics of an oil spill
Summary
Human activity in the Arctic (and elsewhere) is always associated with some risk of damage to the environment. In order to assess risk, one needs to estimate the probability of a given adverse outcome, as well as the consequences. Do not address the probability of a spill taking place, nor the consequences (i.e. the damage to natural resources), focusing instead on the transport and fate of the released oil, and the probability distributions associated with this fate. Ensemble simulations are commonly used in the planning phase of new petroleum developments, and serve two goals: First, to provide the probabilities of for example beaching of oil, for a further Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) where potential damage to natural resources will be considered, and second, to inform contingency planning for oil spill response, giving guidance on required amounts and distribution of response equipment (Barker and Healy 2001)
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