Oil Spill Model Research Articles

Offshore oil spills in Brazil: An extensive review and further development

The present study offers an extensive overview on the evolution and current state of marine oil spill research in Brazil and then discusses further directions. Given the historical and current relevance of this issue, this paper also aims to summarize the exploration, geological background, design of oil spills timeline and assessment of the most important of them. Moreover, it includes a critical comparison of Brazilian oil spill models in terms of their simulation abilities, real-time field data assimilation, space and time forecasts and uncertainty evaluation. This study also presents the perspectives of the Multi-User System for Detection, Prediction, and Monitoring of Oil Spills at Sea (SisMOM) the largest and most important Brazilian project to face the offshore oil spills.

Managing deepsea oil spills through a systematic modeling approach

Offshore oil exploration and production in deepwater are associated with environmental risks to marine ecosystems. This research introduces DWOSM (Deep Water Oil Spill Model), a three-dimensional Lagrangian model, which is developed to simulate the transport and fate of oil spills resulting from subsea blowouts. DWOSM comprises three interconnected modules: DWOSM-DSD, which predicts the oil droplet size distribution from a blowout release; DWOSM-NearField, simulating plume dynamics and tracking oil droplets within the plume region; and DWOSM-FarField, modeling the evolution of dispersed oil beyond the near-field. Compared to other oil spill models, this integrated approach improves the transition between near and far fields using a near-field particle tracking algorithm. It also employs the thermodynamic models to enable the prediction of oil properties under varying deep water pressure and temperature. To gauge the reliability and efficacy of DWOSM, a hypothetical case situated within a North American context is employed for model testing. The DWOSM and its each module are juxtaposed with other established oil spill models. The outcomes indicate that DWOSM yields comparable results to these models by providing reasonable predictions of a deepwater blowout. The model's verification through case scenario testing and comparison underscores its potential as a decision tool for assessing and managing the potential environmental impacts of offshore petroleum activities.

Numerical Model Test of Spilled Oil Transport Near the Korean Coasts Using Various Input Parametric Models

Oil spills pose significant threats to marine ecosystems, human health, socioeconomic aspects, and coastal communities. Accurate real-time predictions of oil slick transport along coastlines are paramount for quick preparedness and response efforts. This study used an open-source OpenOil numerical model to simulate the fate and trajectories of oil slicks released during the 2007 Hebei Spirit accident along the Korean coasts. Six combinations of input parameters, derived from a five-day met-ocean dataset incorporating various hydrodynamic, meteorological, and wave models, were investigated to determine the input variables that lead to the most reasonable results. The predictive performance of each combination was evaluated quantitatively by comparing the dimensions and matching rates between the simulated and observed oil slicks extracted from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data on the ocean surface. The results show that the combination incorporating the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for hydrodynamic parameters exhibited more substantial agreement with the observed spill areas than Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), yielding up to 88% and 53% similarity, respectively, during a more than four-day oil transportation near Taean coasts. This study underscores the importance of integrating high-resolution met-ocean models into oil spill modeling efforts to enhance the predictive accuracy regarding oil spill dynamics and weathering processes.

Ship Route Oil Spill Modeling: A Case Study of the Northeast Brazil Event, 2019

In this study, we investigate the circulation and chemical processes associated with the deposition of the largest oil spill that reached the northeast coast of Brazil during the second half of 2019. Using the Oil Spill Contingency And Response model (OSCAR), we performed both deterministic and probabilistic simulations of oil spills from tanker ships that were present in the sea in the region at the time. The study used a dataset comprising the latitudinal distribution of oil sightings along the coast between 31 August and 2 December 2019 (box plot analysis) provided by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA). The total amount of oil that reached the coast during this period (approximately 5000 tons) and the date and location of the first sighting (30 August, in the southern part of the state of Paraíba (PB)) were also used as parameters to assess the results of the 31 simulations conducted for ships en route near the area of interest between July and August 2019. The results indicate that a leak having occurred through a mobile source is the most plausible hypothesis for explaining the observed temporal–spatial arrival of the oil leaks along the Brazilian coastline. We suggest that prevention, monitoring, and international cooperation are essential for reducing the risks of future environmental accidents of the kind analyzed in this study and to protect the environment and communities affected.

Detection and identification of oil spill species based on polarization information.

Aiming at the problem of poor oil identification accuracy in existing oil spill detection technologies, the polarization degree model of oil spill on rough sea surface under different azimuths and zenith angles was established based on Fresnel theory. The analytical expressions of visible light polarization degree in calm and fluctuating water surface were derived respectively, and the polarization degree model of oil spill in reflection space was constructed. The effectiveness of the method and its influence on the polarization distribution of oil spill were analyzed by simulation. A portable turntable was designed to test the polarization characteristics of the experiment, and the visible light polarization detection experiment was carried out. The visible light polarization images of five typical oil spills at different observation azimuth and zenth angles were obtained. The differences in the polarization degrees of different oil species were analyzed, and the correctness of the theoretical model was proved by experiments. The polarization detection experiment of visible light pBRDF was completed, which more intuitively showed the variation law of the polarization characteristics of light reflected by different oil spills in different spatial positions. Using polarization information to distinguish oil species is a useful supplement to the traditional oil spill detection method and has important significance to improve the marine pollution control ability.

Parameterization Method of Wind Drift Factor Based on Deep Learning in the Oil Spill Model

Parameterization Method of Wind Drift Factor Based on Deep Learning in the Oil Spill Model

Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation

Coupled with a 3D hydrodynamic model, a well-established 3D oil spill model is used to simulate the transport and fate of oil spilled from the A Symphony oil tanker collision in the Yellow Sea on April 27, 2021. The model is first validated by airborne mini-SAR and shipborne X-band radar observation in a 30-day simulation. Subsequently, the model prediction capabilities are investigated over a longer period when hydrodynamic data may not be available. In these cases, hydrodynamic data in earlier years are used for stochastic simulation, and the reliability of a multi-year stochastic simulation is tested. To evaluate the impact of hydrodynamics and meteorological conditions, indexes including oil sweeping area for surface oil, as well as oil centroid trajectory and oil fate for both the surface and subsurface oil, are statistically analyzed for a period up to 90 days after the spill. Over time, the deviation in the stochastic simulation relative to the deterministic simulation increased in the modeled oil transport, indicating an error accumulation. However, in the modeled oil fate, the deviation showed an interesting variation of first increasing and then gradually decreasing. This phenomenon can be attributed to three contributing factors: (1) limitations in empirical equations used in the model; (2) limited environmental impact of the spill; (3) differential role of small-scale ocean processes in short- and long-term simulations. The uncertainty in stochastic members may serve as an indicator of forecast accuracy.

Do oil droplets and chemical dispersants contribute to uptake of oil compounds and toxicity of crude oil dispersions in cold-water copepods?

ABSTRACT Accidental crude oil spills to the marine environment cause dispersion of oil into the water column through the actions of breaking waves, a process that can be facilitated using chemical dispersants. Oil dispersions contain dispersed micron-sized oil droplets and dissolved oil components, and the toxicity of oil dispersions has been assumed to be associated primarily with the latter. However, most hydrophobic, bioaccumulative and toxic crude oil components are retained within the droplets which may interact with marine filter-feeders. We here summarize the findings of 15 years of research using a unique methodology to generate controlled concentrations and droplet size distributions of dispersed crude oil to study effects on the filter-feeding cold-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus. We focus primarily on the contribution of chemical dispersants and micron-sized oil droplets to uptake and toxicity of oil compounds. Oil dispersion exposures cause PAH uptake and oil droplet accumulation on copepod body surfaces and inside their gastrointestinal tract, and exposures to high exposure (mg/L range) reduce feeding activity, causes reproductive impairments and mortality. These effects were slightly higher in the presence of chemical dispersants, possibly due to higher filtration of chemically dispersed droplets. For C. finmarchicus, dispersions containing oil droplets caused more severe toxic effects than filtered dispersions, thus, oil droplets contribute to the observed toxicity. The methodology for generating crude oil dispersion is a valuable tool to isolate impacts of crude oil microdroplets and can facilitate future research on oil dispersion toxicity and produce data to improve oil spill models.

Satellite imagery in evaluating oil spill modelling scenarios for the Syrian oil spill crisis, summer 2021

The second-largest oil pollution incident in the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine basin, following the oil pollution crisis in Lebanon in 2006, is considered to be the oil leakage from the Syrian Baniyas power plant (summer 2021), during which 12,000 tons of oil were released. At the operational phase, the everyday predictions of oil drift were provided using the MEDSLIK and MEDSLIK-II models in the framework of an agreement between the Mediterranean Operational Network for Global Ocean Observing System (MONGOOS) and the Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean (REMPEC). In this work, we present a novel post-operational comprehensive model-based analysis, conducting a SAR validation in two model outputs: the MEDSLIK and the OpenDrift models. Each simulation is initiated with the operationally acquired EMSA-CSN and ESA SAR images. Moreover, the high-resolution met-ocean fields (CYCOFOS, SKIRON) are used to force the oil drift and transformation in both models. The spill was developed under the calm-wind conditions that prevailed during the incident. We found that the boundary sea currents developed on the periphery of the Lattakia eddies (anticyclonic and cyclonic) were responsible for the fast westward spreading of the oil spill offshore in the NE Levantine, the north-south pathway bifurcation, and re-landing of oil in the extended coastal area of Lattakia. Model outputs were validated against Synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images with appropriate performance metrics, used for the first time, to assess the capacity of a reliable representation of oil spill drift. The intercomparison between the two oil spill models indicated that both models produce almost similar results, while their validation against the satellite SAR observations illustrates moderate accuracy.

An ocean–wave–trajectory forecasting system for the eastern Baltic Sea: Validation against drifting buoys and implementation for oil spill modeling

We present the implementation and validation of OpenDrift, an open-source Lagrangian particle trajectory modeling framework for oil spill modeling in the coastal waters of Estonia in the Baltic Sea. The framework was coupled with ECMWF winds, NEMO-EST05 hydrodynamical model, and SWAN-EST wave model, and validated using six drift experiments from 2022. The sensitivity analysis revealed the importance of incorporating additional forcing factors, such as Stokes drift and currents, which generally improved the accuracy of the trajectory model compared to using wind alone. Nevertheless, the benefits of providing OpenDrift with, for example, the Stokes drift seemed to depend on whether currents are also included or not. The wind drift factors of the utilized drifters align closely with those commonly employed in oil spill modeling. Furthermore, the modeling results for hypothetical oil spills in severe weather conditions and high-risk regions emphasize the critical need for preparedness and rapid response strategies.

Modeling chronic oil pollution from ships

Stochastic simulations of virtual oil spills from ships were performed for the Adriatic Sea over 2017–2020, applying the European Marine Observation and Data Network vessel densities as a proxy for starting locations of operational spillage. The MEDSLIK-II oil spill model was run using high-resolution currents provided by the Copernicus Marine Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts winds. Chronic exposure to operational oil spills was reported in terms of hazard indices for five vessel groups: pleasure and passenger ships, cargo and service vessels, the fishing fleet, tankers, and other ships. The northernmost Adriatic expectedly showed the highest hazard values, including the areas of Trieste and Venice, where cargo and service ships were the dominant polluters. The Croatian coastal waters were more chronically polluted than the Italian coastal waters; the predominant contribution was from coastwise pleasure and passenger ships.

Changes in Temperature Alter the Toxicity of Polycyclic Aromatic Compounds to American Lobster (Homarus americanus) Larvae.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) present in the water column are considered to be one of the primary contaminant groups contributing to the toxicity of a crude oil spill. Because crude oil is a complex mixture composed of thousands of different compounds, oil spill models rely on quantitative structure-activity relationships like the target lipid model to predict the effects of crude oil exposure on aquatic life. These models rely on input provided by single species toxicity studies, which remain insufficient. Although the toxicity of select PACs has been well studied, there is little data available for many, including transformation products such as oxidized hydrocarbons. In addition, the effect of environmental influencing factors such as temperature on PAC toxicity is a wide data gap. In response to these needs, in the present study, Stage I lobster larvae were exposed to six different understudied PACs (naphthalene, fluorenone, methylnaphthalene, phenanthrene, dibenzothiophene, and fluoranthene) at three different relevant temperatures (10, 15, and 20 °C) all within the biological norms for the species during summer when larval releases occur. Lobster larvae were assessed for immobilization as a sublethal effect and mortality following 3, 6, 12, 24, and 48 h of exposure. Higher temperatures increased the rate at which immobilization and mortality were observed for each of the compounds tested and also altered the predicted critical target lipid body burden, incipient median lethal concentration, and elimination rate. Our results demonstrate that temperature has an important influence on PAC toxicity for this species and provides critical data for oil spill modeling. More studies are needed so oil spill models can be appropriately calibrated and to improve their predictive ability. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2389-2399. © 2023 SETAC.

Parameterization modeling for wind drift factor in oil spill drift trajectory simulation based on machine learning

Marine oil spill simulations typically employ the oil particle method to calculate particle trajectories, considering various factors such as wind, current, and turbulence. The wind drift factor (WDF), a random element determining the proportion of wind’s effect on oil particles, is often empirically set as a constant in traditional oil spill models, introducing limitations. This study proposes a support vector regression-based parameterization modeling (SVR-PM) for the WDF. Using extensive buoy data and ocean hydrodynamic reanalysis data, we trained an SVR model to compute the WDF in real-time based on real-time wind speed. The SVR-PM was integrated into an oil spill model to enhance the computation of the wind-induced velocity term. We validated the model using satellite images of two significant oil spills, resulting in an excellent average agreement. The SVR-PM’s advantage lies in enhancing the accuracy of wind-induced velocity term in oil spill simulations and demonstrating strong adaptability and generalizability over time and space. This advancement holds significant implications for maritime departments and emergency disaster response units.

Combined oil spill modelling and shoreline sensitivity analysis for contingency planning in the Irish Sea

Offshore oil spills often result in severe environmental and socio-economic consequences. This work focuses on a busy, yet poorly studied part of NW Europe, the Irish Sea, to assess the impact of future oil spills on the nearby coast. By integrating numerical models and shoreline sensitivity analyses for two confined areas, Liverpool Bay and Milford Haven, this work acknowledges wind direction and speed as principal controls on the movement of oil under winter/storm conditions and in shallow waters. Ocean currents play a secondary role, but are significant in deeper waters and in low-wind summer conditions. The temporal elements used in the modelling thus stress that when the spill occurs is just as important as where. As a corollary, the fate of spilled oil is determined in this work for distinct scenarios and types. Response strategies are recommended to minimise the impact of future spills on coastal populations.

The Potential Impact of Oil Spills in Coastal Waters on Water Supply in Trinidad

Oil exploration poses an inherent risk to water resources and water quality, exemplified by oil spills resulting from broken pipelines, underwater blowouts and oil transport vessel accidents. In these instances, as vulnerable to spilled oil, water is usually the first casualty, resulting in oil contaminated water. In an effort to ensure the sustainability of freshwater resources resilience in Small Island Developing States, (SIDS), desalination is increasingly used to provide potable water. Thus, oceanic oil spills are of significant relevance to the provision of a guaranteed supply of potable water. Trinidad and Tobago, an oil-producing (SIDS), with considerable oil and gas activities on land and in shallow coastal waters; can become increasingly stressed from oil spills, possibly leading to halting seawater intakes in the desalination process. A real-life seawater surface oil spill in the Gulf of Paria, south-west coast of Trinidad, not far from the largest desalination plant in the Caribbean, is investigated using numerical mathematical modelling to model the spill’s movement underwater. The trajectory plots produced and analysed, indicated that depending on key parameters of the oil and the current ambient conditions, an oil plume can travel significantly long horizontal distances underwater before destabilising. Inferences suggested that oily underwater and existing ambient conditions can potentially affect the desalination equipment. Hence, oil spill modelling is necessary to determine oil trajectory and further inform the decision-making process in determining the best location for constructing desalination plants so as to minimise disruption to the island’s domestic freshwater supply in oil spill events.

Modes of Operation and Forcing in Oil Spill Modeling: State-of-Art, Deficiencies and Challenges

Oil spills may have devastating effects on marine ecosystems, public health, the economy, and coastal communities. As a consequence, scientific literature contains various up-to-date, advanced oil spill predictive models, capable of simulating the trajectory and evolution of an oil slick generated by the accidental release from ships, hydrocarbon production, or other activities. To predict in near real time oil spill transport and fate with increased reliability, these models are usually coupled operationally to synoptic meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave models. The present study reviews the available different met-ocean forcings that have been used in oil-spill modeling, simulating hypothetical or real oil spill scenarios, worldwide. Seven state-of-the-art oil-spill models are critically examined in terms of the met-ocean data used as forcing inputs in the simulation of twenty-three case studies. The results illustrate that most oil spill models are coupled to different resolution, forecasting meteorological and hydrodynamic models, posing, however, limited consideration in the forecasted wave field (expressed as the significant wave height, the wave period, and the Stokes drift) that may affect oil transport, especially at the coastal areas. Moreover, the majority of oil spill models lack any linkage to the background biogeochemical conditions; hence, limited consideration is given to processes such as oil biodegradation, photo-oxidation, and sedimentation. Future advancements in oil-spill modeling should be directed towards the full operational coupling with high-resolution atmospheric, hydrodynamic, wave, and biogeochemical models, improving our understanding of the relative impact of each physical and oil weathering process.

Update to the light nonaqueous phase liquid infiltration conceptual model

AbstractThe 1970s oil spill model described the infiltration of oil (light nonaqueous phase liquid or LNAPL) into the subsurface, resulting in an oil pancake depressing the water table within the capillary fringe. An update to the 1970s model is needed because, according to the discussion by Lenhard et al. on the work of Lenhard and Parker and Farr et al., “A key concept of their efforts was that LNAPL‐saturated ‘pancakes’ do not exist.” Lenhard and Parker and Farr et al. showed that the distribution of water, LNAPL, and air in the subsurface was a function of the LNAPL, water, and air pressures; fluid properties; and the pore‐size distribution of the porous medium, and that the fluid saturations can be calculated from fluid levels in a monitoring well. The 1970s oil spill infiltration model described that spilled LNAPL migrates downward through the vadose zone under the force of gravity with some lateral spreading. The vadose zone, where all of the liquid pressures are less than atmospheric pressure, becomes a three‐fluid zone consisting of variable saturations of air, water, and LNAPL, which together fully saturate the pore spaces. One important update to the 1970s model is that instead of the infiltrating LNAPL stopping at and depressing the water table, LNAPL penetrates the water table to a depth consistent with the gravitational and capillary forces experienced during LNAPL infiltration and creates a two‐fluid zone below the water table where LNAPL and water pressures are greater than atmospheric pressure. After the LNAPL release stops, LNAPL infiltration and migration will cease after reaching equilibrium. The updated LNAPL infiltration conceptual model, like the 1970s model, describes the situation where the LNAPL release has stopped and LNAPL infiltration and migration have ceased after reaching equilibrium. The volume of LNAPL released is also assumed to be sufficient to pass through the vadose zone and enter the saturated zone.

Habitat equivalency analysis for oil spill damage assessment in the Bohai Sea, China

Oil spill damage assessment is a complex process that requires local specialized institutions. However, such studies are scare in the Bohai Sea of China. This study presents a Habitat Equivalency Analysis Framework for oil spill damage assessment. The equations of the framework are derived based on oil spill modeling and a case-specific Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) approach, using data from the Penglai 19–3 oil spill accident. The framework considers both the pollution scale (Extent of Damage) and ecological effect (Degree of Damage) to assess the ecological impacts of the oil spill. The Euler-Lagrange Particle Tracing Equation is used to simulate the oil movement trajectory, while the combination of oil weathering model and ERA is used to evaluate the ecological effects of benzene, a toxic component of oil, on aquatic species. The study finds that the loss of habitat service level in the event increases in a quadratic trend, and the accumulated compensation at the initial phase (the first four days) is quantified concretely, i.e., ∼Int.$ 82,191, ∼Int.$ 657,528, ∼Int.$ 2,219,159, and ∼Int.$ 5,260,229, respectively, for the first to fourth days. It is showed that the early-stage damage process of the habitat service value, which plays a crucial role in the decision of the final compensation, is significant and could not be neglected.

Investigation of Electromagnetic Scattering Mechanisms from Dynamic Oil Spill–Covered Sea Surface

The electromagnetic (EM) scattering mechanism of dynamic oil spill–covered sea surface area is studied in this manuscript. Utilizing the theory of oil film diffusion combined with oil spill volume, a three–dimensional (3D) geometric model of dynamic oil spill–covered sea surface area is established. The changes of the geometric structure and statistical characteristics of the sea surface area under the influence of the oil film are also analyzed. The thinner the oil spill thickness, the more sensitive it is to the sea surface slope and wave height. The facet-based hybrid model and the multilayer dielectric scattering method are combined to measure the EM scattering on the sea surface when covered by dynamic oil spills. In addition, the hydrodynamic and tilt effect are discussed. The EM scattering mechanism of the dynamic oil spill–covered sea surface area is revealed, and the tilt modulation is greater than the hydrodynamic effect in the dynamic process of an oil spill. It provides an important reference for the remote sensing monitoring of oil.

Hindcast of oil spill pollution in the East China Sea in January 2018

In this study, an integrated model is developed for studying the Sanchi oil spill event, which occurred in the East China Sea in January 2018. The results of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) as well as the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) are used for meteorological forecasting and the hydrodynamic simulations, respectively. These data are adopted as inputs for the OpenOil, a sub-module of OpenDrift, for the oil spill model. Some reference experiments are examined for short-term hindcast. The satellite image is used to validate the numerical result. The oil slicks of the satellite image and the numerical result are of similar shapes. Quantitatively, the simulated oil slick and that from the satellite image are located closely and have similar dimensions of 56 km by 34 km and 54 km by 29 km, respectively. It is found that the accurate results can be obtained by the proposed integrated model with the high-frequency (hourly) and high-spatial-resolution data as inputs, and the wind drift factor has to be added. The long-term 1-month simulation showed that most of the oil particles would move to the northeast of the sinking location and be trapped by the Kuroshio current.