Parameterization modeling for wind drift factor in oil spill drift trajectory simulation based on machine learning

Abstract

Marine oil spill simulations typically employ the oil particle method to calculate particle trajectories, considering various factors such as wind, current, and turbulence. The wind drift factor (WDF), a random element determining the proportion of wind’s effect on oil particles, is often empirically set as a constant in traditional oil spill models, introducing limitations. This study proposes a support vector regression-based parameterization modeling (SVR-PM) for the WDF. Using extensive buoy data and ocean hydrodynamic reanalysis data, we trained an SVR model to compute the WDF in real-time based on real-time wind speed. The SVR-PM was integrated into an oil spill model to enhance the computation of the wind-induced velocity term. We validated the model using satellite images of two significant oil spills, resulting in an excellent average agreement. The SVR-PM’s advantage lies in enhancing the accuracy of wind-induced velocity term in oil spill simulations and demonstrating strong adaptability and generalizability over time and space. This advancement holds significant implications for maritime departments and emergency disaster response units.