Modeling chronic oil pollution from ships

Abstract

Stochastic simulations of virtual oil spills from ships were performed for the Adriatic Sea over 2017–2020, applying the European Marine Observation and Data Network vessel densities as a proxy for starting locations of operational spillage. The MEDSLIK-II oil spill model was run using high-resolution currents provided by the Copernicus Marine Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts winds. Chronic exposure to operational oil spills was reported in terms of hazard indices for five vessel groups: pleasure and passenger ships, cargo and service vessels, the fishing fleet, tankers, and other ships. The northernmost Adriatic expectedly showed the highest hazard values, including the areas of Trieste and Venice, where cargo and service ships were the dominant polluters. The Croatian coastal waters were more chronically polluted than the Italian coastal waters; the predominant contribution was from coastwise pleasure and passenger ships.