Nuclear Crisis Research Articles

Illusion of nuclear superiority: an empirical study on the coercive value of nuclear superiority in a nuclear crisis

ABSTRACT There has been a recent revival of the decades-long debates on the coercive value of nuclear superiority in a nuclear crisis. Some proponents of nuclear superiority assert that nuclear superiority grants coercive leverage for the superior side to prevail in political disputes vis-à-vis nuclear-armed adversaries. However, does nuclear superiority really provide meaningful coercive leverage during a nuclear crisis? This article empirically tests their claims against a recent case – the Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis in 2017–2018. Through this, it argues that nuclear superiority has no meaningful compellent value beyond deterrence in a nuclear crisis for the two core reasons: first, a nuclear crisis does not follow the traditional balance of power logic; second, despite technological advancements, the viability of counterforce strategy in practice has yet to be attained.

Analysis of the Impact of U.S.-South Korean Military Activities on the DPRK's Nuclear Test Process

After the end of World War II, the Korean Peninsula was divided into two, and then the Korean War broke out, and the two Koreas were still in a state of "armistice." The North Korean nuclear issue and the large-scale U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises that have lasted for decades have made the situation in Northeast Asia, which is already in a security dilemma, even more complicated and volatile. By analyzing the timing of North Korea's nuclear tests and their backgrounds, it is easy to find that North Korea has never stopped researching nuclear weapons. However, every nuclear test has been conducted against the background of large-scale U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises. On the issue of resolving the DPRK's nuclear crisis, it is worth rethinking the way of resolving the DPRK's nuclear issue through sanctions and pressure. A study of the relationship between the DPRK's nuclear test and the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises will help to ease the security dilemma between the two sides as well as the security situation in Northeast Asia. It will also serve as a reference for other nuclear proliferation issues in the international arena.

‘Crazy Chinese’ and the 2017 nuclear crisis: A Peruvian newspaper representation of Kim Jong-Un

This study analyzes the narrative characteristics of graphic and written language regarding Kim Jong-Un in the peruvian newspaper ‘El Trome’. This occurred in May of 2017, when mainstream press in Peru closely followed national corruption scandals, whilst ‘El Trome’ focused on a different news story: the nuclear crisis between the United States and North Korea, popularizing the term “Crazy Chinese” in order to refer to the controversial Asian leader. Grounded Theory precepts were employed, which included content analysis of the newspaper covers as well as in depth interviews of the newspapers with both Trome’s General Editor and Design Editor. The newspaper maximized the fear associated with an impending nuclear war, constructing a journalistic message from a sequence of events with two main protagonists: Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un, unpredictable leaders with access to nuclear weapons. The strategy appealed to black humor and entertainment in order to position an agenda independent from mainstream press, which focused on internal politics at the time.

Marine environmental governance for nuclear pollution: From the perspective of China's response to Japan's Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge

The global discourse surrounding the Japanese government's decision to release wastewater resulting from one of the most catastrophic nuclear crises in human history into the ocean has sparked intense deliberation within the international community. It is thus observed that the release of Fukushima nuclear wastewater has triggered a series of legal disputes, particularly in China, which has taken a firm stance against this action. Within China's legal circles, there has been a spirited dialogue on strategies from both international and domestic aspects to protect marine governance outcomes and safeguard the interests of Chinese citizens and enterprises in response to this matter. Accordingly, this article examines various international directives governing nuclear wastewater discharge. It asserts that, given the anticipated legal conflicts related to marine governance, exclusive reliance on the international legal framework may prove inadequate for China's response. Consequently, in response to the adverse impact of Japan's nuclear wastewater discharge into the ocean by 2023, this article posits an alternative approach rooted in China's domestic legal system and the perspective of judicial proceedings. This approach underscores the importance of precisely and adaptively applying specific legal provisions governing nuclear wastewater discharge and compensation claims, both domestically and internationally. To this end, China's endeavors should prioritize the enhancement of regulations pertaining to nuclear wastewater discharge, along with the establishment of systems such as a public welfare fund and subrogation mechanisms. Moreover, it is advisable that China augments its judicial authentication system and public interest litigation system to ensure the effective implementation of these measures.

Escalation Ladder and the Game of Chances in the Ukraine war of 2022

The paper refers to the most recent developments during the 2022–2023 Ukraine war, analysed from the perspective of selected insights derived from deterrence studies, most notably the escalation ladder. The reason for the publication is to point out dangerous escalatory steps in the context of Putin’s Russia-Ukrainian war, including the abolishment of strategic arms control and tactical nuclear weapons deployment in the EU neighbourhood. V. Putin’s regime’s steps towards seizure or control of Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant were discussed internationally as a severe humanitarian hazard. The pre-1989 deterrence debate could add a vital research perspective missing in the analytic frames of the New Cold War. Notably, the developments of the 2023 conduct of the Ukraine war with the support of the West countering the impact of a nuclear crisis scenario (tactical arsenal employment) could be analysed in the context of earlier concepts of limited war (1960s), as well as further elaborations on conditions of mutual vulnerability.

How fear of entrapment shapes South Korean public opinion on conflicts with North Korea under US extended deterrence

ABSTRACT The nuclear crises in 1994 and 2017 between the United States and North Korea introduced South Korea to the fear of becoming entrapped in unwanted wars on the Korean Peninsula. To understand how the fear of entrapment shapes a client state’s strategic judgments toward the use of force by a patron state under extended deterrence, we designed novel experiments on pre- and post-strike approval of military operations by combining war-game scenarios and survey experiments. In the pre-strike-approval experiment, we examined how the decision-making mechanism for military planning and operations, the type of weapon systems, and the expected casualties shape South Korean public opinion on the use of US military strikes against North Korea. In the post-strike-approval experiment, we provided South Koreans with outcomes of military strikes and examined how US unilateral military strikes against North Korea would change public attitudes toward the US–South Korea alliance. We found that the fear of US unilateral use of force and consequent entrapment in unwanted wars substantially decreased South Korean public approval of the military strikes against North Korea. We also found that US unilateral military strikes against North Korea, regardless of their success or failure, would severely harm the US–South Korea alliance.

The role of artificial intelligence in nuclear crisis decision making: a complement, not a substitute

ABSTRACT This article explores the nuanced interplay between artificial intelligence (AI) and human decision making in the high-stakes arena of nuclear crisis management. We argue that AI, despite its lack of emotional intelligence and experiential learning, presents unique opportunities to enhance decision-makers’ ability to navigate the complexities of nuclear crises. By juxtaposing AI's data-driven insights with human intelligence's depth in emotional and creative processes, we illustrate the complementary roles each can play in fostering empathy, understanding, and, ultimately, security dilemma sensibility (SDS). Through theoretical exploration and thought experiments on historical crises such as the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Able Archer incident, we demonstrate AI's potential in mitigating misperceptions and facilitating informed, empathetic responses that acknowledge the fears and intentions of adversaries. However, we also highlight the inherent limitations and ethical considerations of over-relying on AI, stressing the irreplaceable value of human judgment and the need for a balanced approach that leverages the strengths of both AI and human intelligence. Our conclusion underscores the importance of integrating AI as a tool within a broader strategy of crisis management that prioritises trust-building and direct communication among decision-makers to navigate the delicate dynamics of international security and diplomacy effectively.

PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIAN-IRANIAN ENERGY COOPERATION

Due to the withdrawal of the United States under Republican President D. Trump in 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis, non-Western vector of foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) (China, India, Russia, Turkey and other states) has strengthened. It became particularly apparent with the coming to power of a conservative president close to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ebrahim (Ibrahim) Raisi. Seeking to escape the foreign policy isolation and financial and economic sanctions pressure created by the United States and its allies, Tehran is increasingly participating in the activities of major international entities such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Iran became a full member of the Organization on July 4, 2023), the Eurasian Economic Union (Interim Free Trade Agreement is in force) and BRICS (a member of the organization since January 1, 2024).Thus, Iran declares itself as a successfully developing regional center of power. The article pays special attention to the development of energy (with Russia, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan), transport and logistics projects (with Azerbaijan, a railway through Iran to Nakhichevan) with neighboring countries. Under President Raisi new gas and oil fields were discovered. In the future they will ensure greater production and exports. With Russia, Iran in the medium term plans to realize swap gas supplies to Iran through the territory of Turkmenistan, as well as to create a gas hub on the coast of Makran to export its own and Russian energy carriers to the countries of South and Southeast Asia. The government of I. Raisi pays special attention to the development of the Macran Free Economic Zone (FEZ) and the FEZ of Kish Island. At the same time, this is a significant territory not only in geo-economic, transportation and logistics, but also in military terms: the seaports of Chahbehar and Jask are geostrategic at the crossroads of energy communications of the Middle East and South (and further Southeast) Asia.

No First Use Can Still Help to Reduce US-China Nuclear Risks

ABSTRACT No first use declaratory statements are unlikely to significantly affect US-China nuclear crises. China’s nuclear buildup raises serious questions about the meaning and durability of its longstanding declaratory policy, while the United States is unlikely to issue a similar statement. However, no first use can still play an important role in reducing risks between the two countries. First, both countries can take practical planning and posture measures to reduce their reliance on nuclear first use. Second, a bilateral discussion on no first use could lead to a valuable dialogue on the role of nuclear weapons in each country. It may be more consequential to do and discuss no first use than it is to say it.

Nuclear-Conventional Entanglement in Northeast Asia: The Case for Crisis Management Interoperability

ABSTRACT The dangers associated with the entanglement of nuclear and conventional forces have become an area of increasing concern. In this article, I survey the growing nuclear-conventional entanglement risks in Northeast Asia as well as the ways in which entanglement is driving a new era of nuclear arms racing in response. In order to better manage the risks of nuclear crises occurring, I outline the need for a greater emphasis on assurance policies to match the current focus on making deterrent threats. Given the high chance of such crisis nevertheless occurring in Northeast Asia in the years ahead, I make the case for developing what I call “crisis management interoperability” between allies armed with nuclear and strategic non-nuclear weapons. Such interoperability is aimed at ensuring that the difficult task of crisis signalling is not further complicated by alliances with entangled nuclear and conventional forces.

Impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Crisis on Chinese and Media Intervention

The Fukushima nuclear crisis refers to the public emergency triggered by the nuclear power plant atomic leakage in Japan in March 2011 in Fukushima. Nuclear radiation has the features of extensive, invisibility, long-term hazardous, and irreversible. It caused individuals and groups physiological, psychological and behavioral responses, resulting in panic, rumors, unconventional social assembly, etc. The nuclear crisis also triggered salt panic in China. It destroyed the regular social order seriously. Studying the impact of the emergency on public psychology will be helpful for the media to intervene in the general mentality rationally to maintain social development harmoniously.

The Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) and Implications for the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

This article addresses the question of whether there is a peaceful way to defuse the North Korean nuclear crisis by examining the process leading to the Iran nuclear deal. The European approach to resolve security crises based on its principles of multilateralism and the rule of law provides valuable insights for nuclear diplomacy with North Korea: (1) a nuclear-focus approach that dissociates nuclear negotiations from Iran’s other troublesome issues helps the country continue with discussions preventing a military conflict and (2) a multilateral framework with a mediator can guarantee that deals remain alive even if one party breaks away.

“Ancestral Voices Prophesying War”: Investigating the Legacy of the 1947 Partition in the 21st-Century Indian Cultural Imagination of Nuclear War

This article investigates the emergence of the Indian Partition of 1947 as an apocalyptic referent for twenty-first-century Indian cultural imagination of nuclear war with Pakistan, because of the Partition’s traumatic, genocidal imprint on the subcontinent’s cultural memory. We will show how performances of nuclear brinkmanship and nuclear anxiety in India have historically been and continue to be symptomatic of the themes the Partition has bequeathed to Indian literature—kinship, vengeance, identity, and mutual destruction on a gigantic scale. With reference to these themes, we will critically analyze three Indian cultural texts—Vikram Chandra’s novel Sacred Games (2006), its Netflix adaptation (2018–2019), and Sami Ahmad Khan’s novel Red Jihad (2012), especially focusing on the ways in which such texts attempt to feature and resolve Indo-Pakistani nuclear crises. We will demonstrate how these texts embody a cultural shift wherein the nuclear crisis ultimately underscores the urgency of healing Partition’s historical wounds.

Punishment and blame: How core beliefs affect support for the use of force in a nuclear crisis

How do Americans’ core beliefs about punishment, and their intuitions about which actors deserve blame, shape attitudes toward the use of force against a hostile state? I apply insights from recent work in social psychology to investigate the causal mechanisms linking punitive beliefs to support for a nuclear strike. In a large- N study, I find that the strength and ethical logic underlying beliefs about punishment affect attitudes regarding the use of nuclear weapons, and who to blame for the crisis, which mediates the causal pathway. Those who ground their support for severe punishment not in the logic of moral justice, but in societal benefit, are more likely to hold foreign citizens socially responsible for their state's actions.

Irreversibility in nuclear arms control and disarmament law?

Abstract While irreversibility of nuclear arms control and disarmament measures can be supported by compliance with applicable legal norms, the existing treaty regulation has serious gaps: pertinent treaties are not universally applicable; limitations on missiles as important carriers of nuclear warheads have been abrogated; the strategic doctrines of nuclear weapons powers are not fully transparent, and while the latter may strengthen the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence, it also raises questions as to compliance with fundamental obligations to refrain from a threat or use of force and to settle international disputes by peaceful means. There are certain principles of general international law that can and should be used in international cooperation to overcome nuclear crisis situations and strengthen international security: fundamental norms regarding the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament under strict and effective international control have an erga omnes character and are accepted and recognized by the international community of States as a whole. Furthermore, general rules of international responsibility are fully applicable in the law of nuclear arms control and disarmament. It is in this sense that irreversibility in nuclear arms control and disarmament is served by legal principles and rules, which require States to comply with existing obligations and to cooperate for the maintenance of peace and security.

The Abyss: Nuclear Crisis Cuba 1962 , by Max Hastings

The Abyss: Nuclear Crisis Cuba 1962 , by Max Hastings

Risk without strike: Nuclear crisis and corporate investment

While prior works of literature have noted that a crisis brings in not only a strike but also risk, empirical studies on crisis management are largely focusing on the impact of the strike. In this study, we estimate the pure effect of disaster risk on corporate decisions by using the setting of the North Korea nuclear crisis, which brought risk but no actual strike to the neighboring countries. We find that the nuclear tests are significant events for corporate investments and the risk of these tests will lead firms to postpone their long-term investments. The negative impact spreads from the test site and dwindles when firms locate further away, and the geodesic distance rather than the driving distance to the test site matters. Our further analyses show that the negative impact on corporate investment decisions is channeled by the fear of environmental pollution, instead of the geopolitical concern like the outbreak of a war.

P’yŏngyang’s Posthumous Hostages: The Repatriation of U.S. Service Members’ Remains from North Korea, 1991–2018

Abstract Despite the unending nuclear crises and economic sanctions characterizing U.S.-North Korean relations, North Korea has adopted non-aggressive measures to establish bilateral relations with the United States and bypass U.S.-imposed sanctions without committing to denuclearization since 1990. The repatriation of the remains of U.S. soldiers who died in North Korea during the Korean War became a convenient tool for P’yŏngyang to achieve these two strategic aims, as well as the sole arena in where the two countries displayed meaningful cooperation. This article traces the return of each batch of U.S. bodies between 1991 and 2018 to analyze North Korea’s evolving prerequisites for releasing them. North Korea’s demands included ranking U.S. officials making visits, replacing the Korean War Armistice Agreement with new peace treaties, financial aid, and avoidance of any pressure to denuclearize, all of which served the regime’s goal of surviving in the post-Cold War world. Disagreement over reimbursing North Korea for its support in excavation and the inevitable connection between remains repatriation and denuclearization were major blocks to further cooperation in retrieving remains. This study analyzes the benefits and caveats of a low-risk approach to deescalating tensions in East Asia.

Nuclear Signalling and Escalation Risk in the India-Pakistan Context: A Critical Overview of the 2001-02 Standoff

A terrorist attack on the Indian parliament on 13 December, 2001 resulted in a ten-month long military stand-off between India and Pakistan. Throughout this period, both sides conducted aggressive and provocative signalling by conducting missile tests, and through bellicose speeches, statements and press briefings. These signals were conveyed at various levels by the political, military, and bureaucratic leadership. This paper provides a theoretical framework about signalling, deterrence stability and the escalation risk grounded in the classical understanding on nuclear deterrence and escalation. The paper analyses the nuclear signalling during the stand-off in light of the theoretical framework. The paper tests the hypothesis that a high percentage of indirect signalling would induce instability into a nuclear crisis, and the large number of actors sending signals from either side would increase the likelihood of miscommunication. By sifting through media reports during the stand-off, an elimination exercise was conducted and 72 signals were identified and analysed. The paper is divided into five sections and points to the limitation of the Cold War model to explain the South Asian strategic stability dynamics and the need to work out a model specific to South Asian strategic dynamics.

Iranian Nuclear Deal and Middle East Politics: Unveiling the Implications

This paper assessed the implications of Iranian nuclear deal on the politics of Middle East from the realist theoretical perspective. Data for the paper were generated from secondary sources such as books, journals, newspapers/magazines, and online materials among others. The contents of these secondary data were qualitatively analyzed. The results of this analytical discourse reveal that the deal means more of co-operation is likely to take place in the Middle East even though Iran is still perceived as a potential threat. Also, the eventual deal means the emergence of a more empowered Iran capable of dominating the region and pursuing her interests at the expense of other states. It further showed that the tendency of Iran pursuing regional hegemony is very high. The paper concludes that Iranian nuclear crisis is an indication that the intention for nuclear armament is not yet over. Based on these findings and conclusion drawn, the paper recommended that the security balance of the Middle East must be maintained in order not to experience a sudden collapse of peace and stability in the region. States in the region must be made to realize the dangers of taking measures that could lead to a race for arms, especially nuclear armament.