North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

AbstractThis study identifies key features associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in both observations and a fully coupled climate model, e.g., decadal persistence of monthly mean subpolar North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) anomalies, and high coherence at low frequency among subpolar NA SST/SSS, upper ocean heat/salt content, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. These key AMV features, which can be used to distinguish the AMV mechanism, cannot be explained by the slab ocean model results or the red noise process but are consistent with the ocean dynamics mechanism. This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between net surface heat flux and SST anomalies are key indicators of the relative roles of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing in SST anomalies. The oceanic forcing plays a dominant role in the subpolar NA SST anomalies associated with the AMV.

Historical forcings as main drivers of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in the CESM large ensemble

Previous studies suggest that internal variability, in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), drives the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMV), while external radiative forcing only creates a steady increase in sea surface temperature (SST). This view has been recently challenged and new evidence has emerged that aerosols and greenhouse gases could play a role in driving the AMV. Here we examine the drivers of the AMV using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. By computing the ensemble mean we isolate the radiatively forced component of the AMV, while we estimate the role of internal variability using the ensemble spread. We find that phase changes of the AMV over the years 1854–2005 can be explained only in the presence of varying historical forcing. Further, we find that internal variability is large in North Atlantic SST at timescales shorter than 10–25 years, but at longer timescales the forced response dominates. Single forcing experiments show that greenhouse gases and tropospheric aerosols are the main drivers of the AMV in the latter part of the twentieth century. Finally, we show that the forced spatial pattern of SST is not distinct from the internal variability pattern, which has implications for detection and attribution.

Nonlinear interactions between the Amazon River basin and the Tropical North Atlantic at interannual timescales

We study the physical processes involved in the potential influence of Amazon (AM) hydroclimatology over the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at interannual timescales, by analyzing time series of the precipitation index (P-E) over AM, as well as the surface atmospheric pressure gradient between both regions, and TNA SSTs. We use a recurrence joint probability based analysis that accounts for the lagged nonlinear dependency between time series, which also allows quantifying the statistical significance, based on a twin surrogates technique of the recurrence analysis. By means of such nonlinear dependence analysis we find that at interannual timescales AM hydrology influences future states of the TNA SSTs from 0 to 2 months later with a 90–95% statistical confidence. It also unveils the existence of two-way feedback mechanisms between the variables involved in the processes: (1) precipitation over AM leads the atmospheric pressure gradient between TNA and AM from 0 to 2 month lags, (2) the pressure gradient leads the trade zonal winds over the TNA from 0 to 3 months and from 7 to 12 months, (3) the zonal winds lead the SSTs from 0 to 3 months, and (4) the SSTs lead precipitation over AM by 1 month lag. The analyses were made for time series spanning from 1979 to 2008, and for extreme precipitation events in the AM during the years 1999, 2005, 2009 and 2010. We also evaluated the monthly mean conditions of the relevant variables during the extreme AM droughts of 1963, 1980, 1983, 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2010, and also during the floods of 1989, 1999, and 2009. Our results confirm that the Amazon River basin acts as a land surface–atmosphere bridge that links the Tropical Pacific and TNA SSTs at interannual timescales. The identified mutual interactions between TNA and AM are of paramount importance for a deeper understanding of AM hydroclimatology but also of a suite of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena over the TNA, including recently observed trends in SSTs, as well as future occurrences and impacts on tropical storms and hurricanes throughout the TNA region, but also on fires, droughts, deforestation and dieback of the tropical rain forest of the Amazon River basin.

Interdecadal variations of the South Asian summer monsoon circulation variability and the associated sea surface temperatures on interannual scales

We investigate the interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation, which has experienced a significant interdecadal change since 2000. This change is primarily influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. During the pre-2000 period examined in this study (1979–99), the SASM is negatively correlated with eastern Pacific SSTs (the canonical ENSO mode) and positively correlated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic SST tripole (NAT). During the post-2000 period (2000–14), the SASM is negatively correlated with central Pacific SSTs and positively correlated with the positive phase of the NAT pattern. The associated Pacific SSTs change from the eastern to central region, leading to the rising (subsiding) branch of the Walker circulation moving westwards to the Maritime Continent in the latter period, which can impact the interannual variability of the SASM through modulating the wind field in the troposphere. In addition to Pacific SSTs, the NAT SSTs can propagate energy from the North Atlantic to the South Asian High (SAH) region through the wave activity flux, and then further impact the SASM via the SAH. Because the SASM is intimately related with precipitation over the Asian region, we briefly discuss the features of the precipitation patterns associated with the SASM during the two periods. The westward shifting Walker circulation leads to the shrinking and weakened anomalous westerlies of the SASM in the lower level, inducing the Maritime Continent rainfall location to move westwards and more moisture to arrive in southern China from the Pacific Ocean in the latter period.

Continental climate gradients in North America and Western Eurasia before and after the closure of the Central American Seaway

The Gulf Stream, as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is known as a major driver of latitudinal energy transport in the North Atlantic presently causing mild winters over northwestern Eurasia. The intensity of the AMOC throughout the Neogene, prior to the final closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) in the early Pliocene, is still poorly known, but most authors assume that the circulation was considerably weaker than present. Here we address this issue from a continental point of view. We studied the past AMOC intensity by analyzing Neogene continental climate patterns along North American and Western Eurasian transects. Based on a total of 317 palaeofloras thermal latitudinal gradients are reconstructed for three Neogene time slices, namely the middle Miocene, late Miocene, and late Pliocene using the Coexistence Approach to obtain quantitative climate data. The obtained proxy-based, continental temperature gradients are evaluated against data from a selection of published General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations for the three time slices studied.Our study suggests that shallow thermal latitudinal gradients existed in North America and Western Eurasia throughout the Miocene but became strongly steepened in the late Pliocene. In both Miocene time slices studied, the higher latitudes were by up to 30 °C warmer than present (cold month mean), also at times with presumed pre-industrial CO2 such as the late Miocene. In the late Pliocene high-latitude, the temperature difference with respect to the present had decreased by up to 10 °C (cold month mean). Both mean annual temperatures and cold month means of the lower mid and low latitudes were at the present-day level throughout all three time slices, or even slightly below. In both Miocene time slices, zonal temperature means at both continental transects were similar in the mid and higher latitudes. However, several northwest European sites reveal very mild winter condition suggesting the early existence of a probably less intense Palaeo-Gulf Stream. The distinct thermal anomaly (annual and cold month means) today existing between North America and Western Eurasia appeared for the first time in the late Pliocene, attaining about 50% of the present-day magnitude. This supports the assumption that the AMOC intensified after the final closure of the CAS during the early Pliocene. The results obtained from the palaeobotanical proxies are in line with data from coeval marine archives, particularly with North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) inferred from oxygen isotopes. However, the proxy-based thermal gradients are not well reproduced by a selection of GCM simulations, due to a well-known systematic underestimation of high latitude warming by GCMs for the Miocene and Pliocene time slices.

Impacts of surface boundary conditions on regional climate model simulations of European climate during the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractWe examine the influences of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vegetation on regional climate simulations over Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Simulated regional temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe are considerably improved when using revised SSTs based on proxy data. Likewise, the simulated permafrost is more accurately reproduced with the SST modifications. These improvements are partially related to the changed regional atmospheric circulation due to the revised SSTs, leading to colder and drier conditions over Western Europe. Further sensitivity tests with prescribed vegetation for LGM conditions provide evidence of the sensitivity of the simulated glacial climate. This study reveals the importance of considering more realistic SST and vegetation boundary conditions for a more accurate representation of regional climate variability under glacial conditions.

Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation simulated in the CMIP5 models: A re‐evaluation based on a revised index

AbstractThe Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has pronounced influences on weather and climate across the globe. This study provides a direct comparison of the observed AMO‐related surface temperature and precipitation anomalies to those simulated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. It is found that the model‐simulated AMO‐related features are obscured by the global signal in some key regions if the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) itself is used to represent the AMO as in previous studies. After the global mean SST is removed from the North Atlantic SST, the CMIP5 models show substantially better agreement with the observations in terms of the AMO‐related worldwide impacts, such as the Pacific SST and the rainfall over the United States and India. These results suggest the removal of the global signal or signals originating in other ocean basins is a necessary procedure to uncover the AMO features in climate model simulations.

The Central Role of Ocean Dynamics in Connecting the North Atlantic Oscillation to the Extratropical Component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Abstract The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability is investigated using models and observations. Coupled climate models are used in which the ocean component is either a fully dynamic ocean or a slab ocean with no resolved ocean heat transport. On time scales less than 10 yr, NAO variations drive a tripole pattern of SST anomalies in both observations and models. This SST pattern is a direct response of the ocean mixed layer to turbulent surface heat flux anomalies associated with the NAO. On time scales longer than 10 yr, a similar relationship exists between the NAO and the tripole pattern of SST anomalies in models with a slab ocean. A different relationship exists both for the observations and for models with a dynamic ocean. In these models, a positive (negative) NAO anomaly leads, after a decadal-scale lag, to a monopole pattern of warming (cooling) that resembles the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), although with smaller-than-observed amplitudes of tropical SST anomalies. Ocean dynamics are critical to this decadal-scale response in the models. The simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strengthens (weakens) in response to a prolonged positive (negative) phase of the NAO, thereby enhancing (decreasing) poleward heat transport, leading to broad-scale warming (cooling). Additional simulations are used in which heat flux anomalies derived from observed NAO variations from 1901 to 2014 are applied to the ocean component of coupled models. It is shown that ocean dynamics allow models to reproduce important aspects of the observed AMO, mainly in the Subpolar Gyre.

Glacial-interglacial climate change on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau over the last 600 kyr

Exploring the interplay between the mid-latitude Westerlies and East Asian monsoon systems is crucial for revealing the mechanisms and processes behind the aridification of the central Asian interior. In this study, a high-resolution acid-dissolved Mn record of lacustrine sediments from a drilling core (SG-1) in the arid western Qaidam Basin on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) largely reveals the evolution of lake levels and climate change over the last 600kyr. The climate in the western Qaidam Basin shows distinct glacial and interglacial changes in accordance with changes in the global climate, and in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), indicating the teleconnection between the basin's climate and the North Atlantic in the form of the Westerlies. However, the basin's climate also correlates closely with East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) activity as recorded by the grain size variations in loess-paleosol sequences on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) over a glacial-interglacial timescale. Even during glacial periods, some relatively warm/humid stages accompanied by high paleolake levels in the western Qaidam Basin are generally conformable with relatively weak EAWM, whereas these warm/humid stages show a weak relation with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and North Atlantic SSTs. These results collectively provide evidence that climate change in the western Qaidam Basin is, and was, not only controlled by the Westerlies, but also strongly influenced by the Siberian High, at least during glacial periods. The exact driving mechanism, however, needs to be explored further in future studies.

A link between winter precipitation in Europe and the Arctic Sea ice, sea surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation

The spatial and temporal pattern of the link between the winter precipitation variability and variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature, the Arctic sea ice concentration, and 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere is analyzed for the period of 1952-2012. The analysis reveals two principal modes of covariability in the analyzed characteristics. The first mode which explains the most part of covariability, is related to the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The second mode indicates the significant contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with winter precipitation anomalies of the same sign in Europe with the maxima on the East European Plain and in the Balkan region during the positive phase of AMO.

Assessing the Climate Impacts of the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 Global Coupled Models

The climate impacts of the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) are investigated using the GFDL CM2.1 and the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate models. The model North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are restored to fixed anomalies corresponding to an estimate of the internally driven component of the observed AMV. Both models show that during boreal summer the AMV alters the Walker circulation and generates precipitation anomalies over the whole tropical belt. A warm phase of the AMV yields reduced precipitation over the western United States, drier conditions over the Mediterranean basin, and wetter conditions over northern Europe. During boreal winter, the AMV modulates by a factor of about 2 the frequency of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events. This response is associated with anomalies over the Pacific that project onto the interdecadal Pacific oscillation pattern (i.e., Pacific decadal oscillation–like anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and a symmetrical pattern in the Southern Hemisphere). This winter response is a lagged adjustment of the Pacific Ocean to the AMV forcing in summer. Most of the simulated global-scale impacts are driven by the tropical part of the AMV, except for the winter North Atlantic Oscillation–like response over the North Atlantic–European region, which is driven by both the subpolar and tropical parts of the AMV. The teleconnections between the Pacific and Atlantic basins alter the direct North Atlantic local response to the AMV, which highlights the importance of using a global coupled framework to investigate the climate impacts of the AMV. The similarity of the two model responses gives confidence that impacts described in this paper are robust.

Pore fluids in Dead Sea sediment core reveal linear response of lake chemistry to global climate changes

Abstract Pore fluids extracted from a 456 m sediment core, recovered within the framework of a multinational and International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) co-sponsored effort at the bottom of the terminal Dead Sea, recorded the chemical variations in the deep lake over the past 220 k.y. Mg2+ and Br– were shown to be conservative in the pore fluids, increasing in concentration during interglacial periods, diluting during glacials, and providing excellent proxies for deep lake net water balance changes. Furthermore, the Na/Cl ratio recorded the process of halite precipitation and dissolution induced by these hydrological changes. Mg2+ and Br– records follow a glacial-interglacial pattern, such as observed in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global sea-surface temperatures, albeit with a phase offset. At the end of the last interglacial (ca. 116 ka), there is a delay in onset of dilution of the deep lake, most likely due to the limnological transition from holomictic to meromictic conditions. The increase in deep lake concentrations at Last Glacial Termination I is delayed as a result of freshwater input into the deep lake during the cooler Younger Dryas period. There is a persistent relationship between precipitation in the watershed and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, similar to conditions observed over the past instrumental record. Deviations from the long-term trends occurred during interglacial periods, Marine Isotope Stages MIS 5e and MIS 1, when the deep Dead Sea was significantly diluted, and coincided with Mediterranean sapropel layers S5 and S1.

Historical analysis of interannual rainfall variability and trends in southeastern Brazil based on observational and remotely sensed data

The Brazilian Southeast is considered a humid region. It is also prone to landslides and floods, a result of significant increases in rainfall during spring and summer caused by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Recently, however, the region has faced a striking rainfall shortage, raising serious concerns regarding water availability. The present work endeavored to explain the meteorological drought that has led to hydrological imbalance and water scarcity in the region. Hodrick-Prescott smoothing and wavelet transform techniques were applied to long-term hydrologic and sea surface temperature (SST)—based climate indices monthly time series data in an attempt to detect cycles and trends that could help explain rainfall patterns and define a framework for improving the predictability of extreme events in the region. Historical observational hydrologic datasets available include monthly precipitation amounts gauged since 1888 and 1940 and stream flow measured since the 1930s. The spatial representativeness of rain gauges was tested against gridded rainfall satellite estimates from 2000 to 2015. The analyses revealed variability in four time scale domains—infra-annual, interannual, quasi-decadal and inter-decadal or multi-decadal. The strongest oscillations periods revealed were: for precipitation—8 months, 2, 8 and 32 years; for Pacific SST in the Nino-3.4 region—6 months, 2, 8 and 35.6 years, for North Atlantic SST variability—6 months, 2, 8 and 32 years and for Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index—6.19 months, 2.04, 8.35 and 27.31 years. Other periodicities less prominent but still statistically significant were also highlighted.

Remote impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on rainfall in southwestern China during boreal spring

As an important oceanic signal, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) affects not only the climate variability over East China and Northeast China but also can affect climate variability over southwestern China (SWC). Based on station rainfall data and reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the relationship of North Atlantic SST with SWC rainfall during boreal spring for the period 1979–2016. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between North Atlantic SST and SWC rainfall during boreal spring. The atmospheric circulation over southern Asia associated with North Atlantic SST is favorable for positive rainfall anomalies. Further analyses show that North Atlantic SST can induce a North Atlantic–western Russia–western Tibetan Plateau–SWC (NRTC) teleconnection wave train from upper level to low level. At low level, two anomalous anticyclones are found over the mid-high latitude of North Atlantic and the western Tibetan Plateau, and two anomalous cyclones are observed over the western Russia and Bay of Bengal (BOB), respectively. The NRTC teleconnection wave train plays a bridging role between the North Atlantic SST and SWC rainfall during boreal spring. Both the observational analysis and two numerical experiments suggest that the North Atlantic SST during boreal spring can induce an anomalous cyclone over BOB by the NRTC teleconnection pattern. The anomalous cyclone over BOB favors moisture transport to SWC, accompanying with significant anomalous ascending motion, and thus results in positive rainfall anomalies in SWC during boreal spring.

Statistical–Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of Western North Pacific and East Asia Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using the GFDL FLOR Coupled Climate Model

Abstract This study attempts to improve the prediction of western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia (EA) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) using modes of large-scale climate variability [e.g., the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (NASST)] as predictors in a hybrid statistical–dynamical scheme, based on dynamical model forecasts with the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with flux adjustments (FLOR-FA). Overall, the predictive skill of the hybrid model for the WNP TC frequency increases from lead month 5 (initialized in January) to lead month 0 (initialized in June) in terms of correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The hybrid model outperforms FLOR-FA in predicting WNP TC frequency for all lead months. The predictive skill of the hybrid model improves as the forecast lead time decreases, with values of the correlation coefficient increasing from 0.56 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.69 in June. The hybrid models for landfalling TCs over the entire East Asian (EEA) coast and its three subregions [i.e., southern EA (SEA), middle EA (MEA), and northern EA (NEA)] dramatically outperform FLOR-FA. The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed TC landfall over SEA increases from 0.52 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.64 in June. The hybrid models substantially reduce the RMSE of landfalling TCs over SEA and EEA compared with FLOR-FA. This study suggests that the PMM and NASST/AMM can be used to improve statistical/hybrid forecast models for the frequencies of WNP or East Asia landfalling TCs.

Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by “western disturbances” propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.

A dark October in Beijing 2016

AbstractIn recent years, haze pollution events in Beijing have increased sharply, and the haze pollution of Beijing in October 2016 reached a new high. Meteorological conditions are thought to have influences on the haze occurrence, yet the associated atmospheric circulation of haze in October and why the most severe haze pollution occurred in 2016 is still unclear. Here, the authors show through daily observation and reanalysis data that key regions of North Atlantic and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies may be the main factors for this most severe haze event. Since 2013, the SSTs of these two key regions have increased dramatically and reached a peak, which could have induced the severe haze pollution by affecting the Eurasia teleconnection (EU) and the North Pacific Oscillation, with these factors then providing favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for haze development.

Impact of Tropical SSTs in the North Atlantic and Southeastern Pacific on the Eastern Pacific ITCZ

Abstract During boreal spring, observations show a double ITCZ over the eastern Pacific, with the northern ITCZ stronger than the southern ITCZ. However, it is opposite in most climate models. It is also evident that there exists a cold bias in tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) and a warm bias in southeastern Pacific (SEP) SST. In this study, the influences of TNA and SEP SSTs on the double-ITCZ bias are investigated by prescribing the observed SST in these regions in the NCAR CESM1. Results show that when TNA SST is prescribed, the northern ITCZ is substantially enhanced and the southern ITCZ is moderately reduced, although the SST response in these regions is small. When the SEP SST is prescribed, the southern ITCZ is reduced considerably. When both TNA and SEP SSTs are prescribed, the double-ITCZ bias is reduced by ~68%. Moisture budget analysis suggests that dynamics, mainly the low-level convergence change, determines the above precipitation changes. Based on a mixed layer model, changes in low-level convergence are shown to be determined by surface pressure Ps changes. With prescribed TNA/SEP SSTs, SST gradients change the Ps in the region directly via the Lindzen–Nigam mechanism. The corresponding low-level circulation changes affect the 850-hPa thermodynamic state in a wider region, which in turn not only strengthens the SST-induced Ps change locally but also leads to Ps changes remotely, including the northern ITCZ region. Furthermore, the low-level convergence changes the vertical structure of moist static energy, altering the atmospheric stability and modulating precipitation distribution.

Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center

Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most important predictability sources in subseasonal–interannual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the research and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons (EAWM and EASM, respectively), on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system (CPPS) and completed a hindcast experiment for the period 1991–2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is systematically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improvements in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC’s climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.

Amplification of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with the onset of the industrial-era warming

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures experience variability with a periodicity of 60–80 years that is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). It has a profound imprint on the global climate system that results in a number of high value societal impacts. However the industrial period, i.e. the middle of the 19th century onwards, contains only two full cycles of the AMO making it difficult to fully characterize this oscillation and its impact on the climate system. As a result, there is a clear need to identify paleoclimate records extending into the pre-industrial period that contain an expression of the AMO. This is especially true for extratropical marine paleoclimate proxies where such expressions are currently unavailable. Here we present an annually resolved coralline algal time series from the northwest Atlantic Ocean that exhibits multidecadal variability extending back six centuries. The time series contains a statistically significant trend towards higher values, i.e. warmer conditions, beginning in the 19th century that coincided with an increase in the time series’ multidecadal power. We argue that these changes are associated with a regional climate reorganization involving an amplification of the AMO that coincided with onset of the industrial-era warming.