North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Enhanced mercury deposition by Amazonian orographic precipitation: Evidence from high-elevation Holocene records of the Lake Titicaca region (Bolivia)

Very few studies have focused on historical mercury (Hg) deposition in the Southern Hemisphere, especially for the pre-mining period. Therefore, the respective contributions of Hg emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources are not fully constrained and the long-term influence of climate variability is still in debate. In this study, we reconstructed Hg depositions over the last 13,500 years based on two sedimentary records located at the fringe between Amazonia and the Altiplano. Multiproxy analyses carried on the same sedimentary archives (i.e. Hg accumulation rates (AR), major elements, total organic carbon, δ13C and pollen analyses) show evidence that Hg deposition has risen according to Amazonian orographic moisture and precipitation during the Holocene, except for the last 200 years, for which modern industry and goldmining overwhelmed the natural signal. Comparisons with existing Hg records indicated that metallurgy and volcanic emissions were not perceptible due to the eastern down-wind position of the sites. Altogether, it argues that the historical variability of Hg deposition in the central eastern Andes has been primarily driven by changes in Amazonian moisture. At least six main phases of higher Hg AR (2.6 ± 1.4 μg m−2 y−1) compared to baseline values (0.9 ± 0.3 μg m−2 y−1) were identified over the Holocene. During the early and late Holocene, phases of higher Hg AR coincided with wet episodes recorded in Lake Titicaca and Sajama records. During the Middle Holocene arid phase, reconstructed wetter episodes by Hg together with vegetation dynamics were attributed to the set-up of moisture niches in the eastern flanks of the Andes. Comparisons to other paleoclimatic records supports the role of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature in forcing precipitation during the late Holocene period while other mechanisms allowing moisture niches by orography are discussed for the Mid-Holocene dry phase in the eastern Andes region.

Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Baltic Sea Variability

AbstractThe Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a natural mode of variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. The AMO can be used to describe the complex interaction of the coupled atmosphere‐ocean system of the North Atlantic. By analyzing a preindustrial period of 850 years with a regional climate model, we show that the AMO influences the Baltic Sea. AMO‐related changes of the atmospheric circulation affect precipitation over the Baltic Sea region, which leads to altered river runoff influencing the salinity of the Baltic Sea. A wavelet coherence analysis reveals a persistent coherence between AMO and salinity for the whole period of 850 years. This suggests that the Baltic Sea is under the constant influence of the AMO. Our results provide strong evidence for long‐term changes in the Baltic Sea as a result of changing AMO phases.

Future Drying in Central America and Northern South America Linked With Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractMany climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project predict decreases in precipitation in Central America and northern South America by the year 2100 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Here we show that the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models able to more accurately simulate warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the present climate (strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation models) are more likely to project a larger precipitation decrease. Drought amplification from the slowdown of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is more significant during the wet season in the Northern Hemisphere, with an SST‐constrained model estimate yielding a 73% larger decrease in precipitation (−1.11 mm/day) than the multimodel mean (−0.64 mm/day). Since most Earth system models underestimate contemporary SSTs in the North Atlantic, the use of the multimodel mean for impact analysis likely underestimates drought stress and the vulnerability of neotropical forests to increasing drought from climate change.

Inter‐annual variation of the spring haze pollution over the North China Plain: Roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature

Haze pollution is a serious air quality issue in China. Previous studies over the North China Plain (NCP) mainly focused on analysing the haze during boreal winter. However, the variation in haze during spring and the related factors remain unclear. This study investigates inter‐annual variation of the spring haze, which is represented by the humidity‐corrected dry extinction coefficient (DEC) over the NCP. During high DEC years, pronounced positive DEC anomalies appear over the NCP and its surrounding regions. Correspondingly, a notable anticyclonic anomaly is observed over Northeast Asia, inducing significant southeasterly wind anomalies over the NCP. The anomalous southeasterly winds reduce wind speed and increase relative humidity, which provides favourable meteorological conditions for accumulation and growth of aerosol pollutants. Further analysis shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) contributes to the formation of anticyclonic anomalies over Northeast Asia via downstream propagating atmospheric wave trains. Additionally, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the subtropical northeastern Atlantic Ocean may also impact the DEC variation. The linear barotropic model experiment further confirms the important role of subtropical northeastern Atlantic SST anomalies in contributing to the anomalous anticyclone over Northeast Asia and southerly wind anomalies over the NCP region, which are triggered via eastwards propagating atmospheric wave trains. This study gives support to the idea that the NAO and the North Atlantic SST may be potential predictors for the frequently observed springtime NCP haze variation.

Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region

An analysis of a three-member ensemble of initialized coupled simulations with the MPI-ESM-LR covering the period 1901–2010 shows that Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) at 50°N influences surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic region for several years. Three to ten years after strong OHT phases at 50°N, a characteristic pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies emerges: warm anomalies are found in the North Atlantic and cold anomalies emerge in the Gulf Stream region. This pattern originates from persistent upper-ocean heat content anomalies that originate from southward-propagating OHT anomalies in the North Atlantic. Interannual-to-decadal SST predictability of yearly initialized hindcasts is linked to this SST pattern: when ocean heat transport at 50°N is strong at the initialization of a hindcast, SST anomaly correlation coefficients in the northeast Atlantic at lead years 2–9 are significantly higher than when the ocean heat transport at 50°N is weak at initialization. Surface heat fluxes that mask the predictable low-frequency oceanic variability that influences SSTs in the northwest Atlantic after strong OHT phases, and in the northwest and northeast Atlantic after weak OHT phases at 50°N lead to zonally asymmetrically predictable SSTs 7–9 years ahead. This study shows that the interannual-to-decadal predictability of North Atlantic SSTs depends strongly on the strength of subpolar ocean heat transport at the start of a prediction, indicating that physical mechanisms need to be taken into account for actual temperature predictions.

Nonlinear Trends and Nonstationary Oscillations as Extracted From Annual Accumulated Precipitation at Mexico City

AbstractExtracted nonstationary oscillations and nonlinear trends of precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) data reveal that rainfall variability in Mexico City is mainly composed by a long‐term positive trend, a multidecadal oscillation highly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and year‐to‐year variability. The precipitation trend, lasting for more than a century, cannot be attributed to global warming or urbanization alone; rather, it can be thought of as part of a natural oscillation composed of alternating wet‐dry anomalies with a period of a couple of centuries, as past evidence indicates. To further test the dependence of the AMO‐related component, yearly SST time series were derived from a simplified model of the atmosphere‐ocean system forced by white noise. The simulated SST time series exhibits AMO‐like variability entirely consistent with the observed one, implying that North Atlantic SST multidecadal variability can be seen as the integrated response of surface ocean layers to external stochastic atmospheric forcing.

On the relationship between coral δ13C and Caribbean climate

A coral (Orbicella faveolata) δ13C isotope ratio record off the southwest coast of Puerto Rico is used to indicate regional ocean–atmosphere conditions over the 20th century. The coral δ13C record is correlated positively with North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and local evaporation. Spatial correlation maps show a broad area of influence by SST, sea‐level pressure and evaporation to the northeast of Puerto Rico. The composite maps reflect a strengthening of the North Atlantic anticyclone and east Pacific counter‐currents during years of enhanced coral growth. The coral δ13C record presented here corresponds with a local cloud cover increase of ~10% in parallel with a 0.5 °C rise of local SST since 1900. Environmental conditions tend to lead coral growth in a knock‐on effect as seen in local SST, cloud cover and evaporation data. The coral community may thus be a sentinel of both multi‐year fluctuations and centennial trends in Central Caribbean climate.

Influence of Model Bias on Simulating North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature During the Mid-Pliocene

Climate models generally underestimate the pronounced warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic during the mid‐Pliocene that is suggested by proxy data. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic cold SST bias, which is observed in many climate models, on the simulation of mid‐Pliocene surface climate in a series of simulations with the Kiel Climate Model. A surface freshwater‐flux correction is applied over the North Atlantic, which considerably improves simulation of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and SST under present‐day conditions. Using reconstructed mid‐Pliocene boundary conditions with closed Bering and Arctic Archipelago Straits, the corrected model depicts significantly reduced model‐proxy SST discrepancy in comparison to the uncorrected model. A key factor in reducing the discrepancy is the stronger and more sensitive Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and poleward heat transport. We conclude that simulations of mid‐Pliocene surface climate over the North Atlantic can considerably benefit from alleviating model biases in this region.

Mechanisms Governing the Development of the North Atlantic Warming Hole in the CESM-LE Future Climate Simulations

AbstractA warming deficit in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is a striking feature in global climate model future projections. This North Atlantic warming hole has been related to a slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC); however, the detailed mechanisms involved in its generation remain an open question. An analysis of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble simulations is conducted to obtain further insight into the development of the warming hole and its relationship to the AMOC. It is shown that increasing freshwater fluxes through the Arctic gates lead to surface freshening and reduced Labrador Sea deep convection, which in turn act to cool Labrador Sea sea surface temperatures. Furthermore, the resulting changes in surface ocean circulation lead to enhanced transport of cooled Labrador Sea surface waters into the interior of the subpolar gyre and a more zonal orientation of the North Atlantic Current. As a result, there is an increase in ocean advective heat flux divergence within the center of the subpolar gyre, causing this warming deficit in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. These local changes to the ocean circulation affect the AMOC and lead to its slowdown.

Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region.

This study discusses the climatological aspects of the most severe drought ever recorded in the semiarid region Northeast Brazil. Droughts are recurrent in the region and while El Nino has driven some of these events others are more dependent on the tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature fields. The drought affecting this region during the last 5 years shows an intensity and impact not seen in several decades in the regional economy and society. The analysis of this event using drought indicators as well as meteorological fields shows that since the middle 1990s to 2016, 16 out of 25 years experienced rainfall below normal. This suggests that the recent drought may have in fact started in the middle-late 1990s, with the intense droughts of 1993 and 1998, and then the sequence of dry years (interrupted by relatively wet years in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011) after that may have affected the levels of reservoirs in the region, leading to a real water crisis that was magnified by the negative rainfall anomalies since 2010.

Subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperature since 6 ka BP: Indications of anomalous ocean-atmosphere interactions at 4-2 ka BP

Atmospheric circulation may change with future climate change in response to modification of meridional temperature gradients, but the potential influence on ocean circulation is as yet unclear. Over the mid-late Holocene, atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region has fluctuated on millennial timescales; therefore, the ocean response to these changes can be investigated using the paleoceanographic records that have been developed in the north-eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we present a diatom-based sea surface temperature reconstruction from the Iceland Basin, south of Iceland; the reconstruction shows the warmest temperatures of the record at 6.1–4 ka BP, cooler temperatures at 4-2 ka BP and warmer temperatures thereafter. Inter-record comparisons indicate that the cold period at c. 4-2 ka BP may have resulted from a strengthened East Greenland Current and/or melting of the Greenland ice sheet, in response to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. The findings highlight that atmospheric circulation changes are likely to cause pronounced variations in the latitudinal exchange of heat, which may have consequences for deep-water formation and global ocean circulation.

A spatiotemporal reconstruction of sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic during Dansgaard–Oeschger events 5–8

Abstract. Here, we establish a spatiotemporal evolution of the sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic over Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events 5–8 (approximately 30–40 kyr) using the proxy surrogate reconstruction method. Proxy data suggest a large variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures during the DO events of the last glacial period. However, proxy data availability is limited and cannot provide a full spatial picture of the oceanic changes. Therefore, we combine fully coupled, general circulation model simulations with planktic foraminifera based sea-surface temperature reconstructions to obtain a broader spatial picture of the ocean state during DO events 5–8. The resulting spatial sea-surface temperature patterns agree over a number of different general circulation models and simulations. We find that sea-surface temperature variability over the DO events is characterized by colder conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic during stadials than during interstadials, and the variability is linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation and in the sea-ice cover. Forced simulations are needed to capture the strength of the temperature variability and to reconstruct the variability in other climatic records not directly linked to the sea-surface temperature reconstructions. This is the first time the proxy surrogate reconstruction method has been applied to oceanic variability during MIS3. Our results remain robust, even when age uncertainties of proxy data, the number of available temperature reconstructions, and different climate models are considered. However, we also highlight shortcomings of the methodology that should be addressed in future implementations.

The winter midlatitude-Arctic interaction: effects of North Atlantic SST and high-latitude blocking on Arctic sea ice and Eurasian cooling

In this paper, the effects of Eurasian circulation patterns such as high-latitude European blocking (HEB) and Ural blocking (UB) events on winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents–Kara seas (BKS) and Eurasian cooling is examined to differentiate the different roles of HEB and UB in association with positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) events. A particular focus is on the SIC variability resulting from the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) near the Gulf Stream Extension (GSE) region through to the position change of Eurasian blocking. It is found that the SST shows a dipole pattern with a positive (negative) anomaly to the south (north) of the GSE, while the high SST in BKS plays a major role in the BKS SIC decline. The strengthening of North Atlantic westerly winds associated with the SST dipole tends to promote long-lived UB and HEB events associated with NAO+ to further reduce the BKS SIC, while HEB and UB depend on the prior BKS warming and UB requires stronger North Atlantic westerly winds than HEB. During UB, warm moist air from the GSE can reach the BKS to enhance downward infrared radiation (IR) via increased northward transport produced by the NAO+-UB relay. The downward IR is weak during HEB as the moisture is transported mainly into the western part of BKS, even though the NAO+-HEB relay still operates. Thus, UB leads to more pronounced BKS sea-ice declines than under HEB, although the latter still significantly contributes to the SIC loss. It is also found that the central-eastern Asian cooling occurring during UB is related to an intense, widespread SIC decline in BKS prior to the UB onset, whereas the European cooling during HEB is linked to a small SIC decline in the western part of BKS.

Time-varying structure of the wintertime Eurasian pattern: role of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and atmospheric mean flow

The Eurasian (EU) pattern was shown to be closely linked to the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal winter, and this study suggest that such linkage varies with time and that the structure of the EU pattern also changes accordingly. During the period with strong EU-SST linkage (1961–1977 and 1993–2013, denoted as HIGH epoch), the EU pattern is a well-defined barotropic wave train stretching from the North Atlantic towards East Asia-western North Pacific, and it facilitates cooling and slight reduction of precipitation over East Asia and enhanced precipitation over Europe in its positive phase. During the period with weak EU-SST linkage (1948–1960 and 1978–1992, denoted as LOW epoch), in contrast, its centre over Northern Europe weakens sharply, and the wave-like structure of the EU pattern is not well established. In this case, its influences on precipitation over Europe almost vanish, but its influences on both the surface air temperature and precipitation over East Asia amplify significantly. The Atlantic centre of the EU pattern forms from different mechanism during the two epochs. It can be excited by the underlying North Atlantic SST via eddy-mediated processes during the HIGH epoch, while it is likely generated by an incoming Rossby wave train from upstream region during the LOW epoch. Nevertheless, its location and intensity remain similar during the two epochs. Numerical experiments with a barotropic model suggest that the contrasting structure of the EU pattern is mainly attributed to the changes of the atmospheric mean flow.

Contrasting spatial structures of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation between observations and slab ocean model simulations

The spatial structure of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is analyzed and compared between the observations and simulations from slab ocean models (SOMs) and fully coupled models. The observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern of AMO is characterized by a basin-wide monopole structure, and there is a significantly high degree of spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across the entire North Atlantic basin. The observed SST anomalies share a common decadal-scale signal, corresponding to the basin-wide average (i. e., the AMO). In contrast, the simulated AMO in SOMs (AMOs) exhibits a tripole-like structure, with the mid-latitude North Atlantic SST showing an inverse relationship with other parts of the basin, and the SOMs fail to reproduce the observed strong spatial coherence of decadal SST variations associated with the AMO. The observed spatial coherence of AMO SST anomalies is identified as a key feature that can be used to distinguish the AMO mechanism. The tripole-like SST pattern of AMOs in SOMs can be largely explained by the atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism due to the surface heat flux changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The thermodynamic forcing of AMOs by the NAO gives rise to a simultaneous inverse NAO–AMOs relationship at both interannual and decadal timescales and a seasonal phase locking of the AMOs variability to the cold season. However, the NAO-forced thermodynamics mechanism cannot explain the observed NAO–AMO relationship and the seasonal phase locking of observed AMO variability to the warm season. At decadal timescales, a strong lagged relationship between NAO and AMO is observed, with the NAO leading by up to two decades, while the simultaneous correlation of NAO with AMO is weak. This lagged relationship and the spatial coherence of AMO can be well understood from the view point of ocean dynamics. A time-integrated NAO index, which reflects the variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and northward ocean heat transport caused by the accumulated effect of NAO forcing, reasonably well captures the observed multidecadal fluctuations in the AMO. Further analysis using the fully coupled model simulations provides direct modeling evidence that the observed spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across North Atlantic basin can be reproduced only by including the AMOC-related ocean dynamics, and the AMOC acts as a common forcing signal that results in a spatially coherent variation of North Atlantic SST.

Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

AbstractRemote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of ~1.2°C since 1870–1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model’s atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or ”warming hole”—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

RMetS National Meeting – Seasonal forecasting for the UK and Europe

RMetS National Meeting – Seasonal forecasting for the UK and Europe

Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American Summer Climate and Heat Waves

The impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on summertime North American climate are investigated using three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to observed AMV anomalies. Large ensemble simulations are performed to estimate how AMV can modulate the occurrence of extreme weather such as heat waves. It is shown that, in response to an AMV warming, all models simulate a precipitation deficit and a warming over northern Mexico and the southern United States that lead to an increased number of heat wave days by about 30% compared to an AMV cooling. The physical mechanisms associated with these impacts are discussed. The positive tropical Atlantic SST anomalies associated with the warm AMV drive a Matsuno–Gill-like atmospheric response that favors subsidence over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This leads to a warming of the whole tropospheric column, and to a decrease in relative humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation. Soil moisture response to AMV also plays a role in the modulation of heat wave occurrence. An AMV warming favors dry soil conditions over northern Mexico and the southern United States by driving a year-round precipitation deficit through atmospheric teleconnections coming both directly from the North Atlantic SST forcing and indirectly from the Pacific. The indirect AMV teleconnections highlight the importance of using CGCMs to fully assess the AMV impacts on North America. Given the potential predictability of the AMV, the teleconnections discussed here suggest a source of predictability for the North American climate variability and in particular for the occurrence of heat waves at multiyear time scales.