Minitab Software Version Research Articles

145. Disc height assessment: interobserver variability and auto segmentation technology

145. Disc height assessment: interobserver variability and auto segmentation technology

Ethylene Yield from a Large Scale Naphtha Pyrolysis Cracking Utilizing Response Surface Methodology

Statistical software is a robust application that has proven reliable worldwide. However, it is not normally used in the actual large scale olefin plant as it relies on the simulation software by Olefin Licensor should any issue rises. The study was conducted in a newly commissioned large scale olefin plant to see the impact of various operating variables on the ethylene yield from Short Residence Time (SRT) VII Furnace. The analysis was conducted utilizing statistical analysis, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) in Minitab Software Version 18 to develop a reliable statistical model with a 95% confidence level. The historical data was taken from the Process Information Management System (PIMS) Software, PI Process Book Version 2015, and underwent both residuals and outliers removal prior to RSM analysis. 10 variables were shortlisted from the initial 15 identified variables in the studied SRT VII via Regression analysis due to RSM limitation to conduct the larger analysis in Minitab Software Version 18. The Response Optimizer tool showed that the ethylene yield from naphtha pyrolysis cracking in the studied plant could be maximized at 34.1% with control setting at 600.39 kg/ hr of Integral Burner Flow, 6.81% of Arch O2, 113.42 Barg of Steam Drum Pressure, 496.96°C of Super High Pressure (SHP) Temperature, 109.11 t/hr of SHP Boiler Feed Water (BFW) Flow, 92.78 t/hr of SHP Flow, 63.50 t/hr of Naphtha Feed Flow, and -13.38 mmHg of Draft Pressure.

Physical Properties of Sixteen Indigenous Barberry Genotypes

Introduction: Barberries are a wide class of spiny evergreen or deciduous shrubs belonging to Berberidaceae family that are of great importance due to their nutritional and medicinal properties of their different parts and also their ornamental applications. Genus Berberis, the biggest genus in Berberidaceae, includes more than 660 species. Barberry grows in Asia and Europe; and has been used extensively as a medicinal plant in traditional medicine. In Iranian and Turkish traditional medicine, several properties, such as antibacterial, antipyretic, antipruritic and antiarrhythmic activities have been reported with unknown mechanisms of action. Amazing structural diversity among barberries’ active components makes them a useful source of novel therapeutic compounds. Seedless barberry (Berberis integerrima ‘Asperma’) is one of the Iran’s indigenous valuable medicinal plants. Common asexual propagation of this plant over years and consequently low genetic diversity in populations of the seedless barberry restricts selection outcome in breeding programs. Utilizing the indigenous wild genotypes of barberry genus, which are easily able to cross-pollinate is one of the best methods to increase the genetic diversity. To meet this purpose, several wild seedy barberry genotypes were identified from all over the Iran, collected and established in a collection in Mashhad; then 16 genotypes were selected and their physical properties were studied. Materials and Methods: In this study mature fruits of sixteen unique genotypes (i.e. Iranian seedless barberry and fifteen seedy genotypes) were harvested in October- November, 2015 and kept in refrigerator in order to measure some of their physical properties in fresh fruits (berry dimension, weight of one hundred fresh berries, juice content and color indexes). For other properties, fruits were dried at room temperature. Fruit cluster length was measured by means of a ruler, number of berries/cluster and number of set and aborted seeds/berry by counting, berry dimensions by a digital coulis, weight of one hundred fresh and dried berries, percentage of pulp and seed as well as fruit juice content by a scale with 0.001 accuracy. Moisture content was determined by using an oven with 75 oC temperature for 48 hour. Color indexes including “L”, “a” and “b” were measured by using a chromometer (Model Konica Minolta Chroma Meters CR-410). This study was performed using a completely randomized design with 3 replications. Data were analyzed by Minitab software version 16 using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and differences among means were determined for significance at p

In vivo histomorphologically evaluate of the initial bone healing in geopolymer-carbonated apatite nanocomposites as a potential dental implant material

Introduction: Dental implants have become more common treatment for replacing missing teeth. Titanium and zirconia have been widely applied as dental implant material because of their excellent biocompatibility and biomechanics properties. However, they are lack of biologically active surface that encourages osseointegration and their mechanical properties significant different from enamel and dentin value. Carbonate apatite Ca10(PO4)x(CO3)y(OH)z comprises a chemical composition closer to bone and enamel. Calcium phosphate are widely used as biomaterials, their osteoconductive and osteoinductive properties have shown beneficial effect on bone osteogenesis. Geopolymers are ceramic-like inorganic polymers, they have excellent mechanical properties, bioactivity, biocompatibility, suitable for hard tissue prostheses, and environmentally friendly. The aim of the study was to evaluate the initial bone healing in geopolymer-carbonated apatite (CHA) nanocomposites. Methods: Geopolymer-CHA nanocomposites samples were prepared in cylinder of 3 mm diameter and 6 mm thickness and placed in the tibia of eight healthy male breeding New Zealand white rabbits weighing 3.0 to 3.5 kg and 6 month aged. Experimental subjects were randomly assigned to 2 groups for evaluating initial bone healing capability around samples to 14 and 28 days histomorphologically. Wilcoxon test was performed and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant, Minitab software version 13 was used. Result:Granulation tissue, woven, and lamellar bone were analyzed. Day 14 revealed a reactive bone formation, which was characterized by granulation tissue, fibroblasts were in an organized extracellular collagen matrix, osteoblast that directly laid out woven bone contained of immature osteoids, and immature osteocytes were observed. The formation of dense fibrocollagen connective tissue that would be the cartilage, osteoblasts, osteoids, and osteocytes showed more mature while woven bone became denser at day 28.Conclusion: Geopolymer-CHA nanocomposites was a potential dental implant material from mechanical and biological properties point of view.Keywords: Histomorphologically, initial bone response, geopolimer-carbonated apatite nanocomposites, dental implant material

Forecasting Analysis of Share Price Index in Construction Companies Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2019

Stock is one of the investment instruments that many investors choose, both short and long term. Meanwhile, the stock price index is an essential indicator for investors deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. This study aims to determine what methods are suitable for predicting the Stock Price Index of Construction Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019. By selecting a model that matches the existing time series data, to evaluate the results of the forecasting, the researcher uses a measure of accuracy with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). This type of research is a quantitative study with a research population of 16 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Only four samples were used that fit the specified criteria, and only five years of research were conducted, namely in 2015 to 2019. data can be seen from historical data or actual data and tested using Minitab software version 19. The results showed that Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's) and Double Moving Average Method could be used to forecast the Construction Company Stock Price Index. Obtaining the smallest error value of the four construction companies, namely WSKT company with MAPE = 7.3, MAD = 148.8, and MSD = 40506.0 for the Holt'sand MAPE method = 5.3, MAD = 110.1, and MSD = 22006.9 for the Double Moving Average method.

Knowledge and practices of needle stick injury prevention among nursing personnel in a tertiary care teaching hospital in South India

A needle stick injury (NSI) is an accidental skin‑penetrating stab wound from a hollow‑bore needle containing another person’s blood or body fluid, leading to transmission of blood borne infections such as hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus. Nurses are the core care providers for patients in the hospital and thus have the highest rate of needle stick injury among all the health care workers. This is possibly be due to performance of invasive and non-invasive procedures to the patients besides injection administration more often than any other staff. a) To assess the knowledge of Needle stick injuries (NSI) among nursing staffs, b) To determine the practices of Needdle stick injury prevention (NSI) among nursing staffs of a tertiary care teaching hospital.M A cross sectional study was conducted by using a structured questionnaire having close ended and multiple choice questions, 10 in knowledge parameters and 15 in practice parameters respectively, designed from previously published literature. Informed verbal consent was taken prior to distribution of the self reporting Questionnaire and 100 nursing staffs were included. Minitab software version 19 was used for data analysis. 1st Jan 2020 to 31st March, 2020 (3 months).Response rate was 80%, Incidence of NSI was 45%, Only 24% of the nurses were aware of the definition of NSI, about 90% of them were aware of the infections transmitted, 85% of them are unaware of ‘no-recapping’ technique of disposal, 90% of them were aware of standard precautions, Overall knowledge is adequate among 65% nurses. Only 35% nurses reported their NSI after incident, 24% knew post exposure prophylaxis, 98% of the reported NSI incidents NSI were due to recapping of needles. NSIs were highly prevalent among nurses. Injection practices needs improvement. Procedures associated with higher risks of NSIs such as recapping of needles, non-wearing of gloves, improper disposal of sharps and others should be strongly discouraged.

Time-series forecasting analysis on the major treatment need among patients referred for periodontal and conservative treatments in IIUM Dental Outpatient Clinic

Aim: To identify the trend for major treatment needs among patients referred for conservative and periodontal treatments upon screening at Dental Outpatient Clinic, International Islamic University Malaysia, and to forecast the future need for this treatment using time-series forecasting analysis. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study used records of all patients referred for periodontal and conservative treatments from January 1, 2014 until December 31, 2016. The retrieved information includes patient’s age, gender, residential areas, and their treatment needs. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software program, version 20.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The number of patients requiring each treatment need was counted, and the major treatment need was identified. For the time-series analysis, the weekly data for the major treatment need were fitted using few univariate models (moving-average, single-exponential, double-exponential, and Holt’s) in Minitab software version 17.0 (Minitab, LLC, State College, PA, USA) and the best-fitted model was chosen for forecasting the future need of this treatment. Results: From 3388 patients, majority were women (59.2%), aged 20–34 years old (54.5%), and came from urban areas (42.4%). The major treatment needs were scaling-polishing (65.0%) and dental filling (74.1%), respectively. The 3-year weekly pattern for both time series showed no apparent seasonal component. Using the best-fit moving-average model, it is forecasted that the 741 patients per year will require scaling-polishing and 855 patients per year will require dental-filling for the following years. Conclusions: The trends for scaling-polishing and dental-filling need among this population were nonseasonal, and the future needs were forecasted to remain high as in previous years.

Ethylene Yield from Pyrolysis Cracking in Olefin Plant Utilizing Regression Analysis

Ethylene yield is significant in showing the performance of the steam cracker furnace in the olefin plant. This study was conducted in the actual large-scale olefin plant to see the impact of various variables towards the ethylene yield. The analysis was conducted utilizing Regression Analysis in Minitab Software Version 18 to develop a reliable ethylene yield model. The model concluded that ethylene yield in the studied plant was contributed by the factor of -0.000901, 0.02649, -0.282, 0.16, -0.0834, 0.1268, and 0.0057 of Hearth Burner Flow, Integral Burner Flow, Steam Drum Pressure, Super High-Pressure Steam (SHP) Boiler Feed Water Flow, SHP Flow, Naphtha Feed Flow, and Stack NOx Emission respectively. The Response Optimizer tool also showed that the ethylene yield from naphtha liquid feed utilizing pyrolysis cracking can be maximized at 32.55% with control setting at 9,476.41 kg/hr of Hearth Burner Flow, 608.56 kg/hr of Integral Burner Flow, 112.93 Barg of Steam Drum Pressure, 109.11 t/hr of SHP Boiler Feed Water Flow, 86.42 t/hr of SHP Flow, 63.49 t/hr of Naphtha Feed Flow and 126.23 mg/m3 of Stack NOx Emission.

Propylene Yield from Olefin Plant Utilizing Box-Cox Transformation in Regression Analysis

Propylene yield is one of the key operating parameters that is monitored daily in the running olefin plant. This study was conducted in the actual world-scale olefin plant to measure the impact of identified controlled variables on the propylene yield. The Box-Cox data transformation was adopted in the Regression Analysis using Minitab Software Version 18 due to non-normal data were observed after normality and stability test were conducted using Box Plot, I-MR Chart, Run Chart, Graphical Summary, and Normality Plot tools. The model concluded that propylene yield in the studied plant was contributed by the factors of -0.000243 Hearth Burner Flow, 0.01332 Integral Burner Flow, and 0.08598 Naphtha Feed Flow. The Response Optimizer tool also suggested that the propylene yield from naphtha liquid feed can be maximized at 11.22% with the control setting at 10,993.86 kg/hr of Hearth Burner Flow, 604.61 kg/hr of Integral Burner Flow, and 63.50 t/hr of Naphtha Feed Flow.

Effect of Some Thermodynamic Properties of Cutting Fluids on Machinability of Carbon Steel

Cutting fluids are used to reduce heat generated during machining, however some have been discovered to pose health challenges hence the search for viable alternatives. In this paper, three machining conditions (dry machining, wet machining with soluble oil and wet machining with used-engine oil) were conducted on high carbon steel, with a sole aim of investigating the suitability of engine oil as an alternative to soluble oil. Measurements related to effective use of oil as metal cutting fluids were determined and the machining parameters used were cutting speed (750 – 1750 rpm), feed rate (40 – 120 mm/rev), and depth of cut (0.1 – 0.3 mm). The experimental procedure was formulated using Minitab software version 18 and the machining responses investigated were maximum temperature at the cutting interface, surface roughness, and tool wear rate (TWR). Thermodynamic properties investigated include, flashpoint, specific heat capacity, viscosity and density. The experimental results showed that cutting temperature reduced from an average of 440oK during dry machining to 369.8oK (16% improvement) during machining with used-engine oil and 362.6oK (18% improvement) during machining with soluble oil. The surface roughness produced was generally higher while machining with used-engine oil with an average improvement of 39% in surface integrity. However, when soluble oil was used as cutting fluid, average improvement in surface integrity increased to 70%. Hence, used-engine oil offered impressive lubricating and cooling properties and could replace soluble oil as a cutting fluid during machining.Keywords—Cutting Fluid, Cutting Speed, Machining, Surface Roughness, Tool Wear

Optimization of High-Pressure Extraction Process of Antioxidant Compounds from Feteasca regala Leaves Using Response Surface Methodology.

Circular economy principles are based on the use of by-products from one operation as the raw materials in another. The aim of this work is to obtain extracts with high antioxidant capacity and resveratrol content for the superior capitalization of the biomass of Feteasca regala leaves obtained during vineyard horticultural operations in spring. In order to obtain a high-quality extract at an industrial level, an optimal extraction process is needed. Central composite design (CCD) was used for the experiment design, which contained three independent variables: the ratio of extraction solvent to solid matter, temperature (°C) and time (minutes). The evaluation of extracts was done by measuring the total antioxidant capacity of the extracts using photo-chemiluminescent techniques, and the resveratrol content using liquid chromatography. Process optimization was done using response surface methodology (RSM). Minitab software version 17.0 was used for the design of experiments and data analysis. Regression analysis showed that the model predicts 87.5% of the variation for resveratrol and 96% for total antioxidant capacity (TAC). The temperature had the biggest influence on the extraction yield. The optimal operational conditions for the extraction method applied had the following conditions: ratio e/m 2.92; 43.23 °C and 55.4 min. A maximum value of 34,623 µg ascorbic acid equivalent (AAE) /mL total antioxidant capacity and 182.4 µg/mL resveratrol content were obtained when the optimal extraction parameters where used. The values obtained in experiments proved that by using RSM an accurate model can be obtained for extraction of Feteasca regala leaves.

A Review of the Role of Thoracic Imaging in Clinical Practice in a Tertiary Care Centre in Eastern India

Background: The wide availability of Computed tomography (CT) imaging facility in recent years, even in district or sub-district level, has demanded proper evaluation of the trend of its utilisation and assessment of benefit in diagnosis of different diseases. Material & methods: It is a retrospective analytic study of CT thorax images along with its medical records in a tertiary care hospital in sub-urban locality of a metropolitan city over a period of one year. Minitab software (version 15.1.0.0) used for statistical analysis. Result: 226 CT thorax images reviewed; 71% referred from pulmonary Medicine department and mostly from Pulmonary Medicine out-patient department (60.6%). Overall, the final diagnosis obtained with CT imaging remained unaltered in 62.8% of cases. However, among those with discordant radiological diagnosis, normal CT images were the most common finding (29.8%); infective aetiology was the most common pre test provisional diagnosis among these patients. Conclusion: CT imaging is immensely helpful for critical decision making regarding management. However, it should be utilised more judiciously specially when dealing with suspected pulmonary infections, especially in resource constrained set-up.

Evaluación del tiempo en la recuperación de larvas de nematodos a partir de un coprocultivo

Las infecciones producidas por nematodos gastrointestinales representan un problema de gran importancia para la salud en bovinos, además de afectar la economía de los ganaderos e industrias productoras. Se simuló las condiciones necesarias para el desarrollo de los huevos de los nematodos contenidos en las heces del bovino a través de un coprocultivo en aserrín de laurel (Laurus nobilis). En esta investigación se pretendió evaluar diferencias en el tiempo de recuperación de larvas de nematodos a partir del coprocultivo. En la metodología se realizó la técnica de flotación para la identificación de huevos de nematodos y el McMaster para contabilizar la cantidad de huevos por gramo de heces y la cantidad de larvas recuperadas del coprocultivo a los diferentes tiempos. El análisis de los resultados se realizó con el software Minitab versión 19, y se aplicó un ANOVA con un análisis post hoc de Tukey. Como resultado, se estableció que existe una diferencia significativa, de importancia, en el conteo de nematodos cuando estos se recolectan a las 3 horas.

Analysis of Some Predictors for Estimating Carcass Weight in Brahman Cross Cattle

Carcass weight is an important variable in beef cattle farm, noting that it can only be measured after being slaughtered. A method to estimate the carcass weight is needed it in order to reduce losses due to incorrect selection of cattle. The aim of this research is to analyze various variables as carcass weight predictors. The study was conducted at PT. KASA Central Lampung through a survey and field research from 145 cattle consisted of 80 heifers and 65 young steer. The data were collected by direct measurement in the field and added with the production records. The measured variables include carcass weight (CW), chest circumference (CC), body length (BL), body height (BH) and body condition score (BCS) which used as carcass weight predictors. All of the collected data were analyzed with linear and multiple regression to determine the predictors equation, and with one-way classification ANOVA with unbalanced model design by using Minitab software version 13.1. The results showed that sex significantly affect the carcass weight, and the predictors (CC, BL, BH and BCS) analysis showed that all predictors have very high accuracy (P<0.01) by using linear regression. Furthermore, the coefficient of determination (R2 adj. is 89.7% for CC, 71.2% for BL, 85.3% for BH, 71.6% for BCS) is lower than multiple regression in predicting the carcass weight (CW = - 470 + 0.748 CC + 0.878 BL + 2.23 BH + 15.5 BCS), with the coefficient of determination at R2 adj.>90%. The research concludes that the use of multiple regression with CW, CC, BL, BH, and BCS as predictors in the function would be more accurate compared to the linear regression with similar predictor variables.

Synthesis of Acrylic Acid Polymer Hydrogel Nano Fe3O4 to Remove Ammonia from Sugarcane Field Waste

Ammonia is the most essential hydrogenated nitrogen composition that can cause problems when it enters the environment. One of the most important natural and synthetic adsorbents is hydrogels, which can reduce the economic costs of treating industrial effluents and minimize the concentration of ammonia in the drainage of sugarcane fields. In this study, carrageenan, which is a type of polysaccharide, and acrylic acid were used to prepare nanomagnetic hydrogels. Also, the effect of pH, concentration, and temperature on the amount of ammonia adsorption was analyzed by the spectrophotometer, and finally, the adsorption property of the hydrogel was analyzed by the scanning electron microscope (SEM). The results of scanning electron microscopy show that there are holes in the hydrogel surface that increase the rate of adsorption. Experimental data from the spectrophotometer show that the rate of ammonia adsorption increases by about 50% over 80 minutes as its concentration in the effluent increases. The inflation rate of these hydrogels was selected to be 991.52 (mg/g) under optimal conditions, and the nanomagnetic hydrogel adsorption capacity remained constant at a pH range of 4 to 9, while when the pH was below four or above 9, the capacity of adsorption shows a slight decrease. Adsorption by acrylic hydrogels is significant. There is an issue that by modifying the acrylic compounds in the production of the hydrogel, it is possible to absorb the heavy elements or colors in the best way and also to achieve high efficiency. Also, by increasing the amount of adsorbent nanomagnetic hydrogel up to 40 mg led to the adsorption of 89.16%, 32.50%, and 31.11% of ammonia in three pools of the test site, respectively. The results also show that the use of iron oxide nanoparticles in the hydrogel substrate has increased thermal stability by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) which shows that at 650 degrees centigrade, kappa‐carrageenan, hydrogels, and nanomagnetic hydrogels have a weight loss of 72.66%, 58.79%, and 52.39%, respectively. Studies have shown that the kappa‐carrageenan‐based hydrogel nanocomposite is more cost‐effective, while it is more efficient at absorbing NH4+. Therefore, this adsorbent can be a promising material in terms of economic as well as its effectiveness in eliminating ammonia from sewage. Investigations were performed for ammonia desorption and the reusability of nanomagnetic hydrogels. Also, the rate of ammonia adsorption by nanomagnetic hydrogels after 6 cycles of recovery cycle using NaCl can be about 43% of the initial rate. All statistical studies were performed by Minitab software version 18 and considering p value = 0.05.

Trends of non-communicable diseases and public health concerns of the people of northeastern Nigeria amidst the Boko Haram insurgency

The ongoing Boko Haram insurgency in northeastern Nigeria has depleted the country’s capability to deliver quality healthcare to her citizenry. The ailing health sector is overwhelmed with a rising incidence and prevalence of infectious and non-communicable diseases. The aim of this paper was to determine the trend of kidney disease, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), anaemia, malnutrition and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in northeastern Nigeria. Data covering different periods between 1999 and 2017 were obtained from the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH), Maiduguri in northeastern Nigeria. This hospital is the largest tertiary healthcare facility in the region. The data were demographic in nature, i.e. sex, age or simply the registered cases. A quadratic model of time-series analysis was used to create the various trends of the respective diseases with the aid of Minitab software (version 18.0). t-Tests and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were also performed, with a p-value of less than or equal to 0.05 being considered significant. About three out of every five patients treated for kidney disease were male, while three out of every five patients treated for HIV were female. Patients between the ages of 31 and 50 years were at the greatest risk of developing kidney disease. The mean distribution of disease incidence was the same for both sexes for kidney disease, anaemia, malnutrition and HIV. The mean distribution disease incidence was different between age groups for kidney disease but the same for anaemia. The incidence of anaemia and malnutrition reported was almost the same for both sexes. Children under the age of 10 years old were at the most risk of anaemia, with the distribution decreasing with increasing age. The trend analysis of the incidence of kidney disease, ESRD, anaemia and malnutrition showed that these ailments were on the increase, while the number of patients that were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) was on the decline in northeastern Nigeria. These increasing trends are evidences of the effect of Boko Haram on the public health of the people of northeastern Nigeria and will continue to be a public health concern for the region and the country as a whole.

Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Faghihi Hospital Patients (Shiraz, Iran) in 2015 - 2016: Epidemiological Study

Background: Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (cSCC) is an invasive primary cutaneous malignancy and the second common cancer among whites. Objectives: To define the frequency and epidemiologic features of cSCC. Methods: This study was carried out on 311 patients referred to the Department of Dermatology at Faghihi Hospital of Shiraz, Southwest Iran, between 2015 - 2016. cSCC was diagnosed by pathologists using the standard criteria. The reports were collected along with general information such as age, sex, location, type, and depth of invasion; then it was analyzed by using the statistical software known as SPSS version 23.0 and Minitab software version 18. Chi-square test was used to evaluate the statistical significance. A P value lower than 0.05 was considered as significant. Results: The age range of patients was 21 - 95 years old with an average age of 67.63. The sex ratio (male to female) was 2.87 for the total number of cases. The most common stage was well differentiation 97 (31.2%). The most frequent tumor thickness was between two to four millimeters and the most frequent lesion locations were the nose and then the scalp. Conclusions: The frequency of cSCC increased over the years in regards to patients that were referred to the Faghihi Hospital. This results along with other data which are available from other hospitals and medical centers confirm that the frequency of cSCC is increasing in Iran and plan for management of cSCC is essential, nationally.

Iran's international collaborative articles in medical sciences.

Background: Forecasting is the process of predicting future behavior. In reviewing databases, no predicted value associated with international collaboration publications in Iran was found. Thus, the present study aimed at forecasting Iran’s international collaborative articles in medical sciences. Methods: The number of Iran’s articles and international collaborative articles in medical sciences written over 56 years was extracted from SCOPUS. Data were extracted from 1960 up to 2016. The time series method was used for forecasting using the Minitab software Version 17. Results: There was no increase in the number of medical articles from Iran from 1960 to 2001. However, the data showed incremental growth between 2001 and 2016. This was similar to Iran’s medical sciences international collaboration articles. In 2016, the percentage of Iran’s international collaboration articles was 15.2, which is expected to reach 19.9 in 2025. Conclusion: An investigation was performed on the number of international collaboration articles in the field of medical sciences in Iran. Future trends show an incremental growth. The number of Iran’s articles can be increased with international cooperation. However, an increase or decrease in Iran’s articles without international cooperation has to be investigated.

The accuracy of body weight estimation in Fat Tailed Sheep based on linear body measurements and tail circumference

The aim of the research was to determine the accuracy of the estimation of DEG body weight based on linear measurements (chest circumference/ CC, tail circumference/ TC, body length/ BL, and body height/ BH). The research is expected to produce a model of DEG body weight estimation based on linear measurements (CC, BL, BH and tail circumference/ TC). Material used in this research was male fat tailed sheep which has different age seen from the change of permanent teeth PI0, PI1, PI2. The total number of animal used in this research was 60 with details of PI0 = 30, PI1 = 24 and PI2 = 6. Data were analysed by Linear and Multiple Regression Analysis between Body weight and BCS, Linear measurements (CC, BL, BH and TC), using Minitab software version 13. 1. All variables of linear measurements of the body have a strong relationship with body weight, the strongest relationship is body weight with chest circumference, and tail circumference. Estimation of body weight using multiple regression functions (BW = -18.7 + 0.408BH + 0.172BL + 0.274CC + 0.178TC) has an accuracy higher than the estimated body weight using the Schoorl formula.

Rangeland water requirement satisfaction index under rainfall variability and predicting future rainfall scenarios: implication for availability of feed resources

IntroductionRangeland ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services, including feed resources for wild and domestic herbivores in semi-arid areas. However, under the ever increasing environmental changes, the impact of rainfall variability on the productivity and vegetation dynamics of rangelands are the great challenges that pastoral community are facing today. As a result, the potentials of most rangelands in semi-arid ecosystems affect the livestockproduction. Therefore, we studied the interconnections between the long-term rainfall variation and the rangeland Water Requirement and Satisfaction Index (WRSI) in Mieso, Jigjiga, and Shinile districts under pastoral conditions of Ethiopia.MethodsThe base period rainfall data (1984–2015) was obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, whereas the future rainfall trend was predicted using MarkSim software (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 GHG concentration trajectory). Mann-Kendall’s statistical tests, coefficient of variation, LEAP software (version 2.61), and Minitab Software (version 15) were used to assess the relationship between rangeland WRSI and long-term rainfall variability.ResultsThe result indicated that mean annual rainfall anomaly had strong positive correlation with rangeland WRSI in Mieso (P < 0.05), Jigjiga (P < 0.001), and Shinile (P < 0.001) pastoral areas. Similarly, short and long rainy seasons had positive association (P < 0.001) with rangeland WRSI, especially in Jigjiga and Shinile pastoral districts. The base period rainfall as well as the predicted annual rainfall showed variability in amount and distribution in all studied districts in pastoral areas of Ethiopia.ConclusionsThe mean annual rainfall anomaly is correlated with the rangeland WRSI. Moreover, the future rainfall trend analysis indicated that variability of rainfall would be expected in between the years 2020–2049, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. Thus, the future rainfall variability would limit future rangeland WRSI under pastoral conditions of Ethiopia. Based on our study, we suggested establishment and implementation of early warning systems to reduce the likely impact of rainfall variability on future rangeland potential in dry lands under the pastoral production systems in eastern Ethiopia.