Military Tension Research Articles

비핵화에 따른 대북경제제재 해제: 분석과 시사점 (Lifting Sanctions Against North Korea in Tandem with Denuclearization: Analysis and Its Implications)

Korean Abstract: 이 연구의 목적은 북한의 비핵화 과정과 연계한 대북경제제재 해제를 종합적으로 분석하여 북한의 비핵화 프로세스를 촉진하기 위한 방안을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위해 UN 안보리, 미국, 일본 등 다자 및 양자 대북제재에 대해 분석하고 해제 시나리오와 해제 과정에서의 쟁점, 그리고 해제로 인한 경제적 효과 등을 분석하였다. 더불어 미국과 베트남의 관계정상화 과정을 분석하여 북미관계에 대한 시사점을 도출하였고, 전체 분석에 기초하여 비핵화 과정에서의 대북제재 해제를 위한 정책방향을 제시하고 우리 정부의 정책과제를 제안하였다. English Abstract: The sudden turn of events on the Korean Peninsula – the historic inter-Korean summit held on April 27th, second inter-Korean summit on May 26th, the Singapore summit between North Korea and the U.S. on June 12th, and the third inter-Korean summit held on September 18th and 19th – are raising expectations for North Korea’s denuclearization, easing of military tensions between the two Koreas, the official ending of the Korean War and a permanent peace settlement. The ongoing negotiations between North Korea and the United States, which has the most impact among all factors on the Korean Peninsula, ended in a stalemate because the U.S. demands a preemptive and complete denuclearization while North Korea is demanding an immediate lifting of sanctions. If positive results can be derived from the second summit between the North and the United States scheduled for early 2019, it is highly likely that an easing of economic sanctions will be initiated in accordance with progress toward denuclearization, rather than additional sanctions being imposed. This research aimed to study the lifting of international economic sanctions on North Korea in connection with the North’s denuclearization process and to deduce implications in response. In particular, the purpose of this research is to see how lifting economic sanctions against North Korea in the course of future nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea can contribute to the North’s denuclearization, and how this process could be mutually beneficial to both North Korea and the rest of the world. Towards this, we analyzed the UN Security Council’s multilateral sanctions on North Korea, bilateral sanctions against North Korea by the United States and Japan, related laws and issues arising during the process of lifting sanctions, and the economic effects to be gained by lifting the sanctions. Finally, we analyzed the process by which the United States and Vietnam re-established diplomatic relationships, going on to draw implications for North Korea.

Continuity and change – lessons from 1000 years of geopolitics in the Baltic Sea area

ABSTRACTThe geopolitical location of the Baltic Sea region between the Russian heartland and the Atlantic Ocean has shaped developments in this part of Europe for at least a millennium. The traditional narrative in the Baltic Sea tells of hegemonic powers succeeding each other in a continuous struggle to control trade routes and exclude non-littoral powers, from the Vikings to Tsarist Russia. Since industrialization, war and military tension in the Baltic Sea have reflected European and global great power rivalries more than regional tensions. While the hegemonic powers in the Baltic Sea have changed repeatedly through the centuries, infrastructure and terrain in the region have always been unfavourable to the large-scale projection of military power, giving a defender the upper hand. Now, the increased range and accuracy of modern weapon systems seem to have changed that. Moreover, climatic changes expected in the coming century may transform the geopolitical environment even further.

Peace Settlement of the Korean Peninsula and 4.27 Panmunjeom Declaration

남북관계는 국가 대 국가가 아닌 특수관계로 설정하고 있지만, 국가 간의 관계를 전제로 한 국제관계이론의 영역에서 다루어야 한다. 국제 관계에서 신뢰는 안정적인 평화와 협력으로 특징지워지는 것으로 갈등을 풀거나 관계전환의 노력에서 필수적이다. 켈먼(Kelman)은 신뢰는 모든 관계에서 평화와 효과적인 관리를 위한 중심적인 요구라 하면서, 국가 간에 어느 정도의 신뢰 없이 평화과정으로 진입할 수 없고 평화과정으로 진입 없이 신뢰를 구축할 수 없다고 하였다. 남북관계에서 가장 중요하게 생각하는 것은 한반도 평화정착이다. 평화가 유지되기 위해서 선행되어야 할 것이 협력이고, 여기에 필수적인 것이 신뢰이다. 적대관계 속에서는 국가이익을 창출할 수 없으므로, 협력을 통해 위협으로부터 조금 더 자유로운 안보환경을 만드는 것이다. 문재인 대통령이 독일의 베를린에서 내놓은 ‘신 베를린 선언’은 ‘평화와 번영의 한반도’ 정책에 기인한 것이었다. 북한의 김정은 위원장은 ‘전쟁억지력’ 이라는 명분으로 핵무력 강화에 모든 역량을 집중하였다. 그러나 북한의 평창동계올림픽 참가를 계기로 남북간에 특사가 교환되고, 남북정상회담 개최에 합의하였다. 2018년 4월 27일 남북정상회담이 ‘평화의 집’에서 열려, <한반도의 평화와 번영, 통일을 위한 판문점 선언문>을 도출해 냈다. 구체적인 내용은 ① 남북관계의 전면적이고 획기적인 개선, ② 군사적 긴장상태 완화와 전쟁위협 해소, ③ 항구적인 평화체제 구축이다. 이를 위해 종전선언과 평화협정을 추진하자는 것이다. 남북 정상회담은 북미정상회담의 추동력이 되었고 그 핵심은 신뢰구축이었다. 한반도 평화정착은 우리에게 중요한 가치라는 것은 누구도 부인 할 수 없는 사실이다. 북한의 완전한 비핵화를 위한 국제적인 공조가 필요하고, 남북간에는 협력과 신뢰구축으로 평화를 정착시켜야 할 것이다.Although inter-Korean relations are set up as special relations that are not state-to-state, they should be dealt with in the field of international relations theory, which presupposes relations between states. In international relations, trust is characterized by stable peace and cooperation, which is essential in resolving conflicts and in the efforts to transform relations. Herbert C. Kelman believes that trust is a central demand for the peaceful and effective management in all relationships, and that it can not enter the peace process without some trust between nations and can not build trust without entering the peace process. What is most important in inter-Korean relations is peace settlement on the Korean peninsula. Cooperation is prerequisite for peace, which inevitably requires trust. Because it can not create national interests in hostile relations, it will create a more free security environment from threats by cooperation. The New Berlin Declaration presented by President Mun Jae-in of Germany in Berlin was due to the policy of peace and prosperity of the Korean peninsula . North Korean leader Kim Jong-un concentrated all his efforts on strengthening the nuclear armed forces as a deterrent force . However, with the participation of North Korea in the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games, special envoys were exchanged between the two Koreas and agreed to host the summit. On April 27, 2018, the South-North summit was held at the ‘Peace House’, which led to <the Panmunjeom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula>. Specific details include ① comprehensive and groundbreaking advancement in inter-Korean relations, ② relaxation of military tensions and threats to war ③ establishing a robust peace regime. To do this, we will push forward the declaration of war and the peace treaty. The inter-Korean summit was the driving force of the North American summit, and its core was trust building. No one can deny that peace on the Korean peninsula is an important value to us. International cooperation for the complete denuclearization of North Korea is needed, and peace should be settled by cooperation and building trust between inter-Korean.

Media and international sporting rivalry: the Anglo-German sporting rivalry and the shaping of international sporting competition between nations

This article examines the emergence the sporting angle to Anglo-German rivalry from 1908 to 1920, with the focus upon the Olympic Games. Since the cold war international sport has been awash with rivalries between nations that attempt to demonstrate their superiority upon the sports field. Although certainly not the first international sporting rivalry, but perhaps the first which was emblematic of military tensions. Here, the focus will be upon the British perspective to rivalry. The majority of the primary material comes from the British press chosen because of the wide variety of opinions upon German participation and athletes that reveal aspects of British identity revealed via comment and comparison between the two nations. The rivalry and tensions between Britain and Germany illustrated here spilled over into war in July 1914. In the period before the outbreak of war, British interest in German Olympic participation grew, as did fears of their abilities. While in the period after the conclusion of hostilities in November 1918 illustrated the regard by which Germany was held in after the war.

ARCTIC GEOPOLITICS FROM CLASSICAL TO CRITICAL APPROACH – IMPORTANCE OF IMMATERIAL FACTORS

Despite different perceptions, discourses and approaches, the post-Cold War Arctic is with a high geopolitical stability based on institutional, international cooperation started by the Arctic states and supported by Arctic indigenous peoples, non- governmental organizations and sub-national governments. As a result, there are neither armed conflicts nor serious disputes on national borders. Behind the high geopolitical stability are on the one hand, common interests of the Arctic states to decrease military tension and increase political stability by causing a transformation from confrontation to environmental cooperation. On the other hand, there are certain features of Arctic geopolitics as prerequisites for a transformation, such as firm state sovereignty, high degree of legal certainty, and flexibility in agenda setting. When assessing a state of Arctic geopolitics and IR of the post-Cold War era, there is an ambivalence on how ‘geopolitics’ is defined. Behind are the dualism of military presence based on the nuclear weapons’ systems and the high stability based on international, institutional cooperation between the eight Arctic states. As well as, that there are two major competing discourses: first, the Arctic as a ’zone of peace’ and exceptional in world politics, and second, that there is a race of resources and the consequent emerging conflicts in theArctic. In addition, there are fresh reminders that Arctic geopolitics is impacted by (grand) environmental challenges and ‘wicked problems’, in particular climate change; and that new multi- dimensional dynamics has made Arctic geopolitics global. The article aims to draw up a holistic picture of the post-Cold War Arctic, and discuss what might be special features of Arctic geopolitics in globalization. The article examines and discusses the transformation of approach from classical geopolitics to critical geopolitics by applying main approaches of geopolitics to the Arctic/Arctic geopolitics.

Interstate rivalry, genocide, and politicide

Interstate rivalry not only influences a country’s international behavior, but also its domestic conduct. Here, I focus on the connection between interstate rivalry and domestic government mass killing, specifically genocide and politicide. I argue that interstate rivalry has both direct and indirect influences on a government’s decision to use mass violence against its civilian population. Directly, countries engaged in rivalry experience a heightened state of military tension, which increases the likelihood that the country will resort to political mass killing when handling domestic dissent. Indirectly, rivalry increases the likelihood of both inter- and intrastate conflict, which also increases the likelihood of genocide and politicide. Statistical analysis of all country-years from 1955 to 2011 reveals that interstate rivals are more likely to engage in genocide and politicide than are other states. This research illustrates the way in which interstate rivalry influences a state’s domestic politics and shapes the interactions between government and population. It also highlights the importance of how the international threat environment affects a state’s willingness to engage in domestic political mass murder. These findings indicate that rivals do not only engage in the most violent interstate behavior, but also some of the deadliest domestic politics, as well.

Ignite the Stars by Maura Milan

Reviewed by: Ignite the Stars by Maura Milan Wesley Jacques Milan, Maura Ignite the Stars. Whitman, 2018 [400p] ISBN 978-0-8075-3625-4 $17.99 Reviewed from galleys R Gr. 8-10 Seventeen-year-old outlaw Ia has built a reputation around her intergalactic crimes and generally making fools of the Royal Star Force (RSF), the Commonwealth's imperialist military arm. Now, though, she's been caught, implanted with a device that can stop her heart at the push of a button, and forced to attend a high security RSF military academy. Brinn, on the other hand, inspired by the surge of nationalism after the capture of Ia, volunteers for military school but struggles with keeping her half-Tawny (a blue-haired people nearly made extinct by the Commonwealth's military aggression) heritage a secret in these intolerant times. Ia and Brinn are assigned to be roommates, and focalization shifts between them and the Academy's flight master, Knives, offering three distinct but satisfyingly complementary perspectives on this futuristic story. As the two roommates become friends and Knives literally holds the fate of Ia's heart, the buildup of their relationships takes the front seat. Military tensions brew in the backdrop until it's revealed that Ia's brother, now aligned with a coalition of anti-Commonwealth slavers, has never been the loving sibling and freedom fighter he pretended to be. Although some of the outcomes are predictable, Milan introduces some compelling characters and a rich universe of tech and diverse cultures, and she sets the stage for a potentially large-scale political conflict in future installments. WJ [End Page 131] Copyright © 2018 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Prevalence and determinants of stunting in a conflict-ridden border region in Armenia - a cross-sectional study

BackgroundDespite global efforts, stunting remains a public health problem in several developing countries. The prevalence of stunting among 0- to 5-year-old children in Armenia has increased from 17% in 2000 to 19% in 2010. A baseline study was conducted among preschool children in Berd, a region near the northeastern border of Armenia that has experienced intermittent military tension for over 20 years.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study including 594 children aged 6-month- 6 years old and their caregivers in our analysis, to assess the prevalence and determinants of stunting. We calculated the anthropometric measurements and hemoglobin levels of children; analyzed children’s stool and conducted a survey with children’s caregivers. We employed the hierarchical logistic regression model to explore the predictors of stunting among 25–72 months old children and multivariable logistic regression models to investigate the predictors of stunting among 6–24 months old children. Individual and residence level variables were included in the models including anemia, minimum dietary diversity, mothers’ height, the overall duration of breastfeeding, birthweight, child’s history of diarrhea and mean socio-economic score.ResultsThe prevalence of stunting was significantly higher among the 6–24 months old children (13.3%) compared to the children aged 25–72 months old (7.8%). We did not find any differences in the prevalence of stunting by place of residence in either age group. The 6–24 months old children who consumed at least four food groups during the previous day (minimum dietary diversity) had 72% lower odds of being stunted (p < 0.05). Each kilogram increase in birthweight was associated with 76% lower odds of being stunted (OR = 0.24, p < 0.01). Mother’s height significantly decreased the odds of stunting among the children 25–72- months old (OR = 0.86, p < 0.001). BMI was also a significant predictor of stunting among both age-groups.ConclusionsThe study results highlight the significance of mother’s height, birthweight, and adequate complementary feeding to reduce stunting. Further studies are needed to determine the possible association of anemia and stunting with the ongoing conflict in the region, as well as socioeconomic conditions and food insecurity in the region.

Rewriting Home: A Life Writing Study in Post-Postwar Lebanon

ABSTRACTThis article examines the role that creative writing, specifically life writing or creative nonfiction, can play in subverting dominant discourse in a post-conflict environment such as post-postwar (post-2006) Lebanon. To engage the views of Lebanese youth on home matters that shape their lives, I examine 62 personal narratives written by creative writing students at the University of Balamand in Beirut, Lebanon, over a three-year period (2013–2016). Produced against the backdrop of a fractious political climate worsened by the Syrian refugee crisis and military tensions disturbing the Middle East, the texts, I argue, focus on two subject groupings. The first is ‘Coming of Age in an Unstable Home Culture’, and the second is ‘Rewriting Home’. These I separate into six sub-themes: the sectarian and patriarchal gridlock, dim prospects, non-conformist choices, the plight of domestic workers, alternative communities and activism, and green texts. The memoirs reveal how coming of age amid risk and turmoil compelled students to develop contact zones and counter-spaces where non-sectarian initiatives can both circumvent and resist the political and patriarchal sanctions that prescribe life choices and reproduce mainstream followings.

Semantic Prosodies and Frame Semantics in Media Discourse: A Case Study of the Ubiquitous Mayhem in the Iraqi City of Kirkuk

The study investigates the semantic prosodies and semantic framing of the Iraqi city of Kirkuk as depicted in the media. This research aims to supplement current critical research by investigating the issue of Kirkuk and the main reasons for its constant mayhem as presented in media discourse, which hitherto has never been investigated. Moreover, this study’s synergy of semantic prosody and semantic framing is novel. The corpus consists of Eastern and Western news articles retrieved from 4 December 2012 to 23 December 2012. The results of the study indicated that Kirkuk is typically associated with negative prosodies that revolve around political unrest, military tension, and bomb attacks. The main reasons for this mayhem, as depicted in the media, are the city’s most prominent features that is, its multi-ethnicity and oil wealth.

Reconfiguration of Financial System Elements to Restore Economic Growth: The System Simplicity and Transformation towards State-Based and Corporate-Based Types

Highlight The analysis indicates that credit in general have been driving the long-term economic growth more than diversity of financial systems or financial innovations. However, the driver becomes a drug as GDP growth needs a several times faster growth of credit. The scholastic review of the traditional system characteristics (functional, intermediation, institutional) stresses the characteristics as different sides of one coin and the characteristics conventional simplicity cannot explain the system little contribution to economic growth. The research also stresses practical complexity of the financial system, not only the problematic of "too-big-to-fail" banks, but also interrelations of such seemingly uncorrelated natural and social disasters as the Iceland volcano and the Arab Spring, Obama care and military tensions in Ukraine. Conventional market-based or bank-based approaches are criticized as staying too far from primary distribution of money by corporate finances and secondary redistribution by public finances, based on statistics of fixed capital investments and its sources. The article collects opinions and evidences that the financial system simplicity should become a conventional trend combined with the financial instruments approach. The only few leading financial instruments should be offered widely, but others should service the niches to decline an excessive burden of the financial sector for economies. The important contribution of public finances to long-term economic growth is not only visible by sovereign borrowings and infrastructure investments, but also by income redistribution, optimization of consumption and maximization of output by the current budget. The article also collects the evidences and explanations that large non-financial corporations effectively invest in fixed capital and support credit sales without real financial intermediation, and also that many financial services are now provided by IT companies without banks. Problem set and research methodology Financial system, the system types and elements and the country specific features are one of the most popular topics for scientific articles. At the same time, the publications rarely stress the reality that financial system is neither the economic driver, at least in 2008-2016, nor the accumulator of financial sources for economic growth. The mainstream economic thought points that major economies face cyclical crisis, not systematic, and only the time is needed. Economic history of the 20th century shows that financial systems of major economies changed noticeably during every financial crisis and economic cycle. Such system elements as commercial banks, financial markets, public budgets, corporate finance practices fundamentally act without any significant changes. However, economies are really driven by few of the most influential financial institutions and financial instruments, which have been changing from one generation or a long economic cycle to another. Hence, providing many historic analogues of the past transformation of financial system seems to be an important illustration of modern challenges and proposed shifts. The bulk of literature is written about the financial system nature and its role, about two conventionally popular market-based and bank-based models, as well as about the system complex approach. The review of such literature forms a first third of this article and allows shaping the analytical approaches to another proposed system types, such as state-based and corporate-based. Avoiding a wide observation of conventional thought, only several articles were segregated for the review, either from the respective international finance organizations or highly ranked by citations. Financial system has been developing by bright economic events. Thus, the article mainly interprets them and specifies their influence, along with the system shift to unconventional state-based and corporate-based types. …

Early Chinese Voyaging in the South China Sea: Implications on Territorial Claims

The main purpose of this paper is to examine historically issues of territorial claims over the South China Sea. As it is known that at present there are at least six countries claiming part or all of South China Sea territory. In this case China is the most ambitious country to control all areas in the South China Sea. This has led to political and military tensions in the region. It is strange that the South China Sea waters has actually been a shipping thoroughfare for the last two millennia. Therefore, this historical study will contribute to an understanding of the issues that could provoke international conflict.

Lalande's Geographical Conception of Africa: European Exploration and the Scientific Call of the Continent's « Inner Regions » on the Verge of the Revolutionary Era

This paper discusses the Mémoire sur l'intérieur de l'Afrique, written by the French scholar Joseph Jérôme Lefrançois de Lalande. It analyses Lalande's aims, arguments and claims regarding his subject of study - the "inner parts" of Africa - against the background of scientific, commercial, political and military tensions between France and Britain. It situates Lalande's discourse within the broader context of the competing "science policies" of both states in the second half of the eighteenth century. It is an investigation of the sudden re-emergence of Africa as an object of knowledge in the relationship between power and science. The paper focuses on the continuous interaction between France and Britain in African affairs, and highlights the shift from a mere "Enlightened" exploration from the 1720s to Lalande's revolutionary time, when Africa became the object of a "Banksian" takeover, enhancing British interest in the "unknown" interior of the African continent by setting up large-scale, interrelated research missions with practical goals. This provoked reactions from the French side, reflected in Lalande's dissertation.

Transculturality and the Gesta Romanorum in Light of Hartmann von Aue's Gregorius and Heinrich Kaufringer's Verse Narratives

Transculturality and the Gesta Romanorum in Light of Hartmann von Aue's Gregorius and Heinrich Kaufringer's Verse Narratives Albrecht Classen We have long recognized the enormous literary productivity of the genre of late medieval verse narratives. Wherever we look, we discover significant processes of reception, translation, adaptation, and modeling of older sources for the own purposes. Marie de France, in her lais (ca. 1180–1190) indicates that she could have drawn from Latin sources, but that she preferred utilizing ancient Breton folk tales. Geoffrey Chaucer in his Canterbury Tales (ca. 1400) drew freely from Boccaccio's Decameron (ca. 1351), among many other sources. Those also included the rich corpus of fabliaux, twelfth- and thirteenth-century Old French ribald verse narratives that enjoyed great popularity all over Europe far into the early modern age. In the middle of the sixteenth century, Marguerite de Navarre explicitly referred to the French translation of Boccaccio's Decameron when she composed her own collection of prose narratives, her Heptaméron. The rich corpus of German mæren from the thirteenth to the fifteenth centuries, subsequently followed by the vast number of Schwänke (entertaining, but often also didactic prose narratives), was certainly influenced by Boccaccio's work as well, and then by Poggio Bracciolini's Facetiae (ca. 1450) (Clements and Gibaldi). Major writers in the German-speaking world, such as The Stricker, Heinrich Kaufringer, Johann Pauli (sermon narratives), Jörg Wickram (jest narratives), Hans Wilhelm Kirchhof, and many others document the intriguing literary network determining all of late medieval European literature (Erotic Tales; Classen, Deutsche Schwankliteratur). The Italian novelle by Franco Sacchetti were just as important in that global process of the textual give and take as the somewhat older Latin tradition of religious anecdotes produced by Caesarius of Heisterbach in his Dialogus miraculorum (ca. 1220–ca. 1224) (D' Orient en Occident) and Petrus Alfonsi's Disciplina clericalis (early twelfth century, which was the crucial bridge connecting Oriental and Arabic literature with Jewish and Christian narratives distributed widely in western Europe (Divizia; Szpiech). Comparative literary analysis meets its richest material, indeed, when we turn to the pan-European world of short verse or prose narratives (The Art of Cistercian [End Page 177] Persuasion). Those, however, were not simply autochthonous, and instead always have to be considered as part of an ever growing, global narrative framework since the influence of the Arabian stories from One Thousand and One Night must not be ignored, even if we still face difficulties in tracing exactly the channels of transmission to Europe—via the crusaders, pilgrims, traders, diplomats, and artisans. Moreover, those stories also did not emerge in isolation, and had probably been influenced in turn by Persian and East Indian material, especially if we think, for instance, of the extensive tradition of the anonymous Barlaam and Josaphat, even though this belonged to a literary genre. Although we can easily recognize here the original accounts related to the life of the founder of Buddhism, Gautama Buddha, they were easily and quickly adapted to Persian, Arabic, Aramaic, Greek, Latin, and then many European vernacular cultures, crossing numerous linguistic, religious, and cultural boundaries (Classen, Barlaam und Josaphat). Despite many religious and military tensions, in the world of story telling, erotic themes constantly dominate, but didactic, moral, religious, and political elements also matter greatly and help to explain the vast popularity of this genre. After all, as we can regularly notice, the plots of many tales are closely associated with traveling, demonstrating how people are faring in extreme situations, which bring out their best and their worst (Kinoshita). Most intriguingly, the central issues addressed everywhere can be reduced to a small number since the authors regularly returned to the same fundamental concerns and brought them to light by way of applying only slightly different narrative frameworks. Human shortcomings, desires, fears, vices and virtues, sinful behavior, curiosity, and basic experiences in foreign lands, but then, above all, love and sexuality, marriage, adultery, and, ultimately, the experience of God—all those aspects formed the core concerns determining and undergirding late medieval European short narratives at large (Fischer; The Social Function of Short-Form Medieval Narratives; Ziegeler; Grubmüller, Discourses on Love, Marriage). In this...

South Korea’s Rise in Comparative Perspective

In recent decades, South Korea has had a distinctive rise in status in the international order, relying on gains in all major components of national power-economic, military, political, and societal. While much attention has been directed to South Korea's rise, comparative implications and aspects have not-hence, this special issue.A comparative perspective addresses a number of key questions:* What is distinctive as well as shared about South Korea's rise when compared with other newly industrialized countries? How are sui generis as well as recurring aspects of South Korea's rise reflected in different components of national power, such as economic, military, political, and societal?* Are the recurring aspects of South Korea's rise reflected by sector in other rising East Asian countries? In what contrasting ways is the rise of these other East Asian powers sui generis?* How does South Korea's rise compare by sector to that of a rising China?* How do the above comparisons lend insight into what is idiosyncratic and recurring or shared about South Korea's rise?Domestic and International PerspectivesA systematic framework is needed to address these multiple comparisons regarding South Korea's rise: domestic, international, and sectoral perspectives, treated in economic, political, security, and societal dimensions. In particular, two basic perspectives on South Korea's rise deserve attention: a domestic perspective and an international perspective.Domestic PerspectiveSouth Korean domestic and foreign policies responsible for this multifaceted rise need to be tracked, and lessons learned need to be identified and specified. While South Korea's rise has attracted much attention, the record of specific South Korean public policies needs to be compared and assessed. The role of the private sector also needs to be considered. We need to consider how public policy interfaces and interacts with the private sector in different areas. In addition, how does the domestic context position South Korea for an international rise in status?Since the end of World War II, South Korea has experienced a major war, military dictatorship, and democratization, along with rapid industrialization and continual growth of military tension on the Korean peninsula. Against this background, choosing the right policies becomes much more challenging, but also promises to be more rewarding.International PerspectiveRising powers in Asia and beyond have received much attention, although comparisons between them have been largely random and unstructured. A clear exposition of lessons learned across domestic and foreign policies about South Korea's rise gained from the domestic perspective can provide a basis for systematic comparisons with the rise of other countries in Asia and beyond- including the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. South Korea-based comparisons with other newly industrialized countries and rising powers will involve both domestic and international public policies. Domestic public policies include those related to industry, transportation, energy and the environment, and research and development in high technology. International public policies include foreign and defense policy. Systematic comparisons between South Korea's rise and the rise of other countries can lend insight into the dynamics of each country's rise as well as how each national case impacts the international order.Given the continuity of the Cold War mentality in Northeast Asia, the international policy choices seem to be limited for South Korea. In making comparisons, we need to understand how this circumstance has affected South Korea's choices of domestic policies, especially strategies for rapid economic growth. Peace and predictability are essential for economic investment, and government policies are vital to ensure a healthy environment for investment, economic and political as well as societal. …

Managing North Korean Nuclear Threats: In Defense of Dialogue and Negotiations

Managing North Korean Nuclear Threats:In Defense of Dialogue and Negotiations Chung-in Moon (bio) Inter-Korean relations have hit rock bottom. Since President Park Geun-hye’s inauguration in February 2013, her government pursued the Trust-Building Process on the Korean Peninsula initiative and tried to improve ties with North Korea. But such efforts have failed, and inter-Korean relations have worsened.1 After North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January 2016, the Park government adopted a much tougher stance by closing the Kaesong industrial complex and completely suspending inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation. Seoul and Washington have also intensified joint military exercises and training on deploying strategic weapons. Pyongyang responded to these moves by conducting numerous missile test launches and by undertaking an additional nuclear test in September. A vicious cycle of action and reaction has heightened inter-Korean military tension, which has deepened public anxiety. The North and the South are engaging in a dangerous game of chicken without any channels of communication, increasing the risk that an accidental clash may well escalate into a full-blown military conflict. Over the past seven years—while the six-party talks have been derailed—North Korea is believed to have steadily amassed nuclear materials and is now estimated to possess more than ten nuclear warheads. Pyongyang has so far conducted five nuclear tests in total and acquired short-range Scud-type missiles, intermediate-range Nodong and Musudan missiles, and even submarine-launched ballistic missiles. It is also close to developing intercontinental ballistic missiles and claims to have made progress miniaturizing and diversifying its nuclear warheads as well. The North Korean nuclear threat is thus no longer fictional but real and poses serious security threats to the peninsula, all of Northeast Asia, and the world. North Korean nuclear weapons would significantly alter the [End Page 74] military balance on the Korean Peninsula and ultimately impede peaceful coexistence there. The regional security impacts are also profound—a nuclear domino effect might lead to proliferation elsewhere in Northeast Asia. And the possibility exists that North Korea will export nuclear materials, technology, and even warheads to other regions, threatening the very foundations of world security in this age of global terrorism. Against this backdrop, this essay provides a critical assessment of existing strategies to deal with the North Korean nuclear deadlock by focusing on sanctions and other pressures, deterrence and missile defense, and preemptive attack and nuclear armament. It then suggests dialogue and negotiation as a viable alternative. The Limited Effectiveness of Sanctions and Other Pressures The Park Geun-hye government has responded to the threats from North Korea by employing a variety of countermeasures ranging from sanctions and other pressures to deterrence, preemptive strikes, and defense. Its preferred method of managing Pyongyang’s unruly behavior has so far been sanctions. The Park administration strongly believes that North Korea’s crimes (possession of nuclear weapons and violation of UN resolutions) should be punished by comprehensive and forceful sanctions and that such sanctions can compel the North and its leader, Kim Jong-un, to choose a path toward denuclearization. Otherwise, the Kim regime will risk collapse. But sanctions have not been effective. Despite the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2270, North Korea has not shown signs of compliance. On the contrary, its behavior has become more defiant, with the Kim regime conducting a fifth nuclear test and additional missile tests. North Korea is still a closed society and is very much accustomed to sanctions. Moreover, China does not want to go ahead with any sanctions that would undermine stability in the North and lead to regime collapse. Given that 91.3% of North Korea’s trade is with China, as of December 2015, international sanctions cannot be effective without Beijing’s full cooperation.2 As sanctions and other pressures have not produced any tangible outcomes, the South Korean government has not only strengthened its deterrence posture but also begun to adopt a more assertive defense stance, especially against a potential North Korean missile attack. This deterrence [End Page 75] strategy is composed of three elements. The first is deterrence against the North by implementing a kill chain predicated on improved missile and...

The Northeast Asian Regional Security Complex: Japan-Russia Defense Relations

This paper addresses Japan-Russia defense relations in the context of Japan's defense policy shift regarding the reinterpretation of the Japanese constitution's Article 9, Russia's recalibration of its military forces in the Asia-Pacific, and the rise of Chinese military power in Northeast Asia. It argues that as Northeast Asia comprises a regional security complex, the security relationship between Japan and Russia, is not solely contingent upon Moscow and Tokyo's handling of bilateral affairs. Rather, external factors that involve both Japan and Russia separately also affect this bilateral security relationship. Despite the Japanese and Russian governments' efforts toward improving bilateral defense relations in light of the Kuril Islands/Northern Territories dispute, Moscow and Tokyo's respective defense policies in response to the rise of China's military prowess in Northeast Asia also affect Japan-Russia defense relations. Specifically, Japan and Russia's buildup of their navies in order to counter the rise of China's maritime prowess may also cause military tensions between Moscow and Tokyo.

Financing Regional Economic Integration and Functional Cooperation for Northeast Asia: A Multilateral Financial Institution for Northeast Asia

The Northeast Asian region, despite the recent changes in political leadership in the major countries of China, Japan Korea and Russia as major players, is still one of the most dynamic economic centers of the world. With its own capital resources and advancing technology along with enormous resources in Russia and Mongolia, and productive linkages to the Pacific and North America, the region continues to play a pivotal role in the global economy. This is a remarkable development in that for centuries until the later part of the twentieth century, this region suffered from the political environment of military conflicts, tension, and territorial rivalries among the major powers of China, Japan, Russia, and the United States. Even with the phenomenal economic growth in the region in recent decades, regional security and stability has been fragile, mainly attributable to the geopolitical conditions resulting from the Cold War era. In the twenty-first century, for the countries in Northeast Asia to further their development aimed at creating a region in which peaceful coexistence and common prosperity prevail, functional economic cooperation is essential to harness the individual economies together. This is a challenge for the Northeast Asian countries, and initiating specific functional cooperation is one concrete and constructive approach toward meeting this challenge.Northeast Asia is one region of the world where a formal regional institutional mechanism comparable to the European Union or ASEAN has yet to be developed. Yet, it is crucial for the Northeast Asian countries to continue to promote region-wide cooperative projects. The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) have been cooperating on the effort toward achieving closer economic and financial cooperation in the region, and this volume presents the results of the project implemented in 2012 to develop a regional institutional arrangement for financing cross border infrastructure developments and thereby regional economic integration.The northeastern part of China, North Korea, Mongolia, and the Russian Far East together constitute an area that is well-endowed with natural, energy and human resources. This sub-region has the potential of becoming a tremendous source of natural resources for the entire region, and what is needed is to realize that potential through cross border infrastructure developments. Energy security and efficiency, coupled with protection for the environment, and the promotion of green growth, for example, is an important area of cooperation, as the three major countries of China, Japan and Korea are heavily dependent on energy imports and are highly vulnerable to energy crises. Financing requirements for the necessary cross-border infrastructure are likely to be large, and a regional financial institution is a key to meeting that financing need.This volume, fourth in the series of proceedings volumes titled, Financing Regional Economic Integration and Functional Cooperation for Northeast Asia: A Multilateral Financial Institution for Northeast Asia, comprises papers, research reports, and summaries of a main conference and several specialized meetings, as well as affiliated activities, that took place under this project. The results of this project represent activities contributing to the regional economic integration and have been carried out in a spirit of cooperation.

Collages of Memory: Remembering the Second World War Differently as the Epistemology of Crafting Cultural Conflicts between Russia and Ukraine

This essay critically examines the current duality of Russian-Ukrainian intercultural relations and explores the subject of politics of active and selective memory as the claimed root of current controversies and military tensions. Through rhetorical analysis of historical and contemporary national narratives, it demonstrates how culturally defining experience of the Second World War and the Great Patriotic War is remembered, rethought, and reused by respective parties to reinvent the Self and the Br/Other, as well as rethink ones positionality on the world arena.

Patterns of political instability and inbound tourism to South Korea

AbstractSouth Korea’s political instability continues to be provoked by North Korea’s military threats. In the decade from 2004 to 2013, 14 incidents of military tension between South (ROK) and North Korea (DPRK) were recorded. The risks were due to nuclear and missile tests, the death of Kim Jong-il, and two brushfire wars. This research investigated the relationship between the political risks and the trends in inbound tourists to South Korea. In particular, incremental historical volatility demand trends are considered in the context of political events using a stochastic method. The results indicate a significant causal relationship between the types of political risk and the different patterns of volatility seen. Since 2003, the brushfire wars included the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island and the sinking of the South Korean Navy’s Corvette Warship. These events had the biggest political impact on the volatility of the inbound tourist market, and all risks had a direct effect on the volatile patt...