비핵화에 따른 대북경제제재 해제: 분석과 시사점 (Lifting Sanctions Against North Korea in Tandem with Denuclearization: Analysis and Its Implications)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 이 연구의 목적은 북한의 비핵화 과정과 연계한 대북경제제재 해제를 종합적으로 분석하여 북한의 비핵화 프로세스를 촉진하기 위한 방안을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위해 UN 안보리, 미국, 일본 등 다자 및 양자 대북제재에 대해 분석하고 해제 시나리오와 해제 과정에서의 쟁점, 그리고 해제로 인한 경제적 효과 등을 분석하였다. 더불어 미국과 베트남의 관계정상화 과정을 분석하여 북미관계에 대한 시사점을 도출하였고, 전체 분석에 기초하여 비핵화 과정에서의 대북제재 해제를 위한 정책방향을 제시하고 우리 정부의 정책과제를 제안하였다. English Abstract: The sudden turn of events on the Korean Peninsula – the historic inter-Korean summit held on April 27th, second inter-Korean summit on May 26th, the Singapore summit between North Korea and the U.S. on June 12th, and the third inter-Korean summit held on September 18th and 19th – are raising expectations for North Korea’s denuclearization, easing of military tensions between the two Koreas, the official ending of the Korean War and a permanent peace settlement. The ongoing negotiations between North Korea and the United States, which has the most impact among all factors on the Korean Peninsula, ended in a stalemate because the U.S. demands a preemptive and complete denuclearization while North Korea is demanding an immediate lifting of sanctions. If positive results can be derived from the second summit between the North and the United States scheduled for early 2019, it is highly likely that an easing of economic sanctions will be initiated in accordance with progress toward denuclearization, rather than additional sanctions being imposed. This research aimed to study the lifting of international economic sanctions on North Korea in connection with the North’s denuclearization process and to deduce implications in response. In particular, the purpose of this research is to see how lifting economic sanctions against North Korea in the course of future nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea can contribute to the North’s denuclearization, and how this process could be mutually beneficial to both North Korea and the rest of the world. Towards this, we analyzed the UN Security Council’s multilateral sanctions on North Korea, bilateral sanctions against North Korea by the United States and Japan, related laws and issues arising during the process of lifting sanctions, and the economic effects to be gained by lifting the sanctions. Finally, we analyzed the process by which the United States and Vietnam re-established diplomatic relationships, going on to draw implications for North Korea.