Continuity and change – lessons from 1000 years of geopolitics in the Baltic Sea area

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe geopolitical location of the Baltic Sea region between the Russian heartland and the Atlantic Ocean has shaped developments in this part of Europe for at least a millennium. The traditional narrative in the Baltic Sea tells of hegemonic powers succeeding each other in a continuous struggle to control trade routes and exclude non-littoral powers, from the Vikings to Tsarist Russia. Since industrialization, war and military tension in the Baltic Sea have reflected European and global great power rivalries more than regional tensions. While the hegemonic powers in the Baltic Sea have changed repeatedly through the centuries, infrastructure and terrain in the region have always been unfavourable to the large-scale projection of military power, giving a defender the upper hand. Now, the increased range and accuracy of modern weapon systems seem to have changed that. Moreover, climatic changes expected in the coming century may transform the geopolitical environment even further.