Macroeconomic Environment Research Articles

ENERGY DYNAMICS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD: CURRENT STATE AND FUTURE PROSPECTS IN THE CONTEXT OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS

This study offers a more comprehensive view of the energy sector in the developing countries, considering current states and future prospects in light of technological advancements. The study is designed to provide a more nuanced and in-depth exploration of the subject matter, considering the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities of energy dynamics in the developing countries. The study also examined the state of energy consumption and sources in the United States of America with a view of drawing experience from them by the developing countries. It was observed that Energy sources and uses are critical for understanding the impact of supply, demand, and pricing on the macroeconomic environment. Everything is powered by energy, and understanding these interconnections can help to manage the supply requirements and price exposure. The study observed that renewable energy technologies, energy storage solutions, smart grid infrastructure, block chain technology, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and digitization and automation form the key technological advancement in the energy sector. Developing countries can take advantage of them to transform their energy woes to wins.

Analysis of building behavior in construction industry and its relationship with its business performance for state contracting in Boyacá, Colombia

Construction provides the infrastructure necessary for the progress of modern societies and responds favorably to global economic dynamics. This performance is conducted through business performance, when formulating and executing this type of projects in Colombia. However, Its productivity is low, despite its support as a leading stimulator of production in times of crisis. Therefore, this research analyzed the macroeconomic environment of the construction and building subsector, through the selection and characterization of companies in Boyacá, Colombia, together with the identification of their capacities, estimated by the financial and organizational statements required in public bids. This analysis exposes the dependent and volatile market, mainly supported by housing construction activity. In Colombia, there is a reduction in productivity and in Boyacá, 95.83% of sole proprietorships do not have conditions to participate in public procurement. Consequently, despite institutional efforts to encourage production by investment in the building subsector, the nature of the market and the organizational limitations hinder the development of the sector and the Colombian economy in times of crisis.

Interdependence of macroeconomic environment and credit risks in Croatia

Purpose: The relationship between the macroeconomic environment and banking risks is one of the basic conditions for the stability of the state financial system. The purpose of this paper is to show the interdependence between the macroeconomic environment and the financial system, i.e., to highlight the importance of various macroeconomic factors and their impact on the banking system in Croatia.Methodology: Statistical data for the period from 2010 to 2022, obtained from publicly available databases, are analysed. Correlation analysis was performed to determine the intensity and direction of the relation-ship between macroeconomic and banking variables. Regression analysis was conducted to determine if macroeconomic variables could explain some of the changes in banking variables. Results: The results of the analysis show a significant correlation between the macroeconomic variable unemployment rate and all banking variables, as well as between the macroeconomic variable inflation rate and the banking variables: non-performing loans (NPL) and bank loans. Gross domestic product (GDP) is not correlated with any of the observed variables, which is a very interesting result. The unemployment rate is the predictor that is significant for all banking variables, while the inflation rate is the predictor that is significant only for non-performing loans.Conclusion: The conducted analyses show that economic development plays a role in the business policies of banks. These results can be particularly useful for bank management and the government, as they provide all stakeholders with important information about the role of macroeconomic policies of financial institutions in Croatia and, consequently, the Croatian economy.

БІЗНЕС-АНАЛІТИКА РОЗВИТКУ ВЕНЧУРНОЇ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ

The purpose of the article is to build a system of business analysis of venture activity in conditions of intensification of innovative transformations of the national economy. The development of the venture structure as a process of permanent change of its potential, functional activity and results of activity can apply both to individual subjects of venture business and to spheres of venture activity. The basis of the development of the venture structure is its potential (management, resource, intellectual, operational). In a general sense, potential is the capabilities that are available or that can be mobilized and applied under certain conditions to achieve the goal of development. As for the venture structure, its potential is determined by the opportunities that, in the specific conditions of the global economic system, the macroeconomic environment, and the internal environment, can manifest themselves in a certain time and with a certain effectiveness (in accordance with the development indicators), therefore it is advisable to conduct a business analysis of the development of the spheres of venture activity to reflect their state and development trends. Taking into account the work of domestic and foreign scientists, the questions regarding the construction of a system of business analysis of venture activity in the conditions of the activation of innovative transformations of the national economy are still not fully explored. The article builds a system of business analysis of venture activity in the conditions of the activation of innovative transformations of the national economy, which is based on means of researching the state and predicting future changes of venture activity based on an organic combination of general methods and models of statistical analysis and econometric modeling with special tools for evaluating the results of the operation of venture structure and forecasting its development in conditions of limited information certainty. The built system of business analysis of venture activity in the conditions of the activation of innovative transformations of the national economy reflects the state and dynamics of the development of the spheres of venture entrepreneurship for 2014–2021.

Capital structure of Chinese food companies and their macroeconomic environment

Capital structure of Chinese food companies and their macroeconomic environment

Does macroeconomic environment stimulate herding behaviour among investors in Malaysia stock market? an empirical evidence

Herding behaviour could cause stock prices to deviate from the fundamentals, resulting in market instability. One of the influencing factors that stimulate herding behaviour amongst investors is macroeconomic environment. Among the major macroeconomic variables that play important role in influencing herding behaviour are economic growth, exchange rate, interest rates and inflation rate. However, empirical evidence on this is still lacking especially in the case of emerging markets such as Malaysia. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to empirically examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the existence of herding behaviour in the Malaysian stock market.  In this study, two measures of herding behaviour have been used: Cross-Sectional Standard Deviation (CSSD) and Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD).  The estimation used daily data of 346 companies listed on the Malaysian stock market from the year 2000-2019. The regression estimation results using CSSD with individual macroeconomic variable found that herding behaviour is detected in the case of interest rate and inflation. Meanwhile, for CSAD, the results demonstrate that herding behaviour is present in the case of interest rate, inflation rate and growth. Meanwhile, for the regression that consists of all macroeconomic variables, both measures are negatively and significantly related to interest rates and inflation rates. The findings offer additional evidence in supporting the existence of herding behaviour in Malaysia under the influence of selected macroeconomic variables.  Therefore, establishing better routes for economic information dissemination could assist investors to make a better investment decision. With a better understanding about herding behaviour could assist regulators to detect price efficiency issues hence to maintain market stability and efficiency.

Improving Access to Credit for First-Time Home Buyers under Borrower-Based Measures

As a result of the dynamic rise in real estate prices in recent years, house prices, and therefore the minimum down payment required to obtain a mortgage, more than tripled by 2022 compared to 2014. This led to a deterioration of access to borrowing opportunities typically for young first-time home buyers aged 35 or younger, especially among clients who are not eligible for family support schemes. In this paper, we provide a detailed overview of the potential side effects of the borrower-based measure framework on first-time home buyers. Relative to their credit risk, these clients may be more severely affected by borrower-based measures, generating negative second-round effects. Therefore, in their case preferential limits may be applied, in line with international practice, notably on the level of down payment. However, when making such a decision, it is important to take into account the development of risks in the housing and credit markets and the macroeconomic environment.

Macroeconomic factors and firm performance – the case in the stock

Enterprises are an important entity in the economy and play a great role in creating jobs, carrying out production and business activities, contributing to the state budget, connecting foreign trade activities and creating development in each country. When businesses grow, it means that businesses contribute more to the national interest, therefore, countries need to create a favorable business environment to help businesses develop. Business operations are often affected by fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment in particular and government policies in general. Therefore, businesses always have to find ways to adapt to the impacts of macro factors, external shocks that may affect their business activities and from there, businesses can survive and develop. development, achieve financial benefits. The efficiency of a business is often measured by financial performance, it reflects the profit that a business can reap in business. One of the parameters that can reflect the efficiency of a business is the return on assets (ROA). The objective of the research is to evaluate the influence of macro factors on the financial performance of enterprises on the Vietnamese stock exchange in the period 2008 to 2020, using quantitative analysis method, analysis results analysis assert that: financial development has a positive effect on economic growth, which means that domestic credit poured into private enterprises often improves the financial performance. Moreover, the research results also suggest that enterprises choose to finance capital through equity, which is likely to increase the financial performance. In addition, in this research, we did not find the impact of economic growth, corporate liquidity on financial performance. It reflects that economic growth does not always bring practical effects to businesses, but economic growth needs to create qualitative changes and help businesses improve efficiency in a real way that contribute to the development of enterprises.

The Choice of Unemployment Indicators for Assessing Internal Equilibrium and Fiscal and Monetary Regulation: The Example of Eastern European Countries

The possibilities of monetary and fiscal regulation are actively used today to create conditions for establishing the desired macroeconomic proportions or macroeconomic equilibrium. To obtain feedback on the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal interaction, as well as on deviations in the macroeconomic environment, it would be advisable to use aggregated macroeconomic indicators presented in the literature - Balanced Development Index (BDI) or General Macroeconomic Equilibrium indicator (GME). The choice for further improvement of the GME calculation methodology is due to the high level of aggregation of macroeconomic data.

No brand can easily claim to be ‘luxury’: A case study of Hugo Boss’ brand positioning (2006–2020)

Much confusion still prevails over the distinction between the terms luxury, premium and fashion. Both academics and professionals understand them very differently. This paper delves into the relationship between positioning and business model using the framework proposed by Kapferer [Kapferer, J. N., (2016), ‘The Challenges of Luxury Branding. The Routledge Companion to Contemporary Brand Management’, Routledge, London, p. 485], which highlights how different the business models from luxury, premium and fashion are. Another trading-up brand strategies framework is presented, and a new trading-up strategy model is then proposed. To illustrate these theoretical frameworks and related strategies, the German clothing icon Hugo Boss has been chosen as a case study for its self-proclaimed positioning’s shift, over fifteen years (2006–2020), from premium to luxury and back to premium. In terms of methodology, a longitudinal study has been favoured to observe Hugo Boss’ changes of positioning over time. This paper relies on secondary data, drawn from Hugo Boss’ annual reports of the aforementioned time period, its investors’ presentations, bank analyst’s reports and business newspapers’ articles. Along three self-elaborated drivers of a trading-up strategy from premium to luxury (ie develop exclusive distribution, increase product quality and fuel marketing engine), the findings about Hugo Boss have shown that the brand only partially developed its business model along these lines, resulting in a shift, in 2016, towards a trading-down strategy back to its original positioning in premium. However, in the years until 2020, these trading-up investments have had long-lasting and significant effects on the brand performance. Additionally, further results indicated that the shareholder structure, the choice of management, the brand’s communication and the macroeconomic environment were decisive factors as well.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ БЮДЖЕТНО-ПОДАТКОВОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ В КОНТЕКСТІ ГЛОБАЛІЗАЦІЙНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ

Current issues of defining the types and principles of budget and tax policy in the conditions of globalization processes during the period of martial law are studied. The necessity of fiscal, regulatory, and stimulating functions of the high level of the organization's fiscal, regulatory, and stimulatory functions was established by the budget and tax policy, ensuring at the same time the economic capacity of the state to perform the functions assigned to it, and the regulation of economic processes in the state and the direction of the development of the economic system. The dependence of the application of types of budget and tax policy on the conditions of the country's economic system and the goals set for the government, which makes decisions in the conditions of modern globalization processes, is determined. It is argued that the peculiarities of the budget and tax policy in the context of globalization processes lead to the need to find new ways to respond to modern challenges, implement measures to equalize and mitigate negative consequences and ensure economic recovery. A comprehensive and coordinated approach to the constant vector of recovery in war conditions and prompt response to the current economic situation through the application of optimal taxation conditions and high-quality administration of the budget and tax policy is analyzed. Scientific approaches in the context of globalization processes are summarized, which made it possible to clarify the interpretation of the types of the concept of "budget and tax policy" and to determine the principles of purposeful state activity using the tax and budget systems to implement specific directions of their use exclusively in the interests of citizens, society and the state. The main feature of the formation of budget and tax policy in the context of globalization processes is the tendency to reorient the priorities of state finances to ensure the conduct of armed struggle on the scale that the physical resources of the country allow. Tax revenues for such purposes, even allowing for increased tax rates and broadening of the tax base, are not sufficient to cover wartime needs. The characteristics of the principles of budget and tax policy aimed at ensuring support of macroeconomic stability and the production of non-inflationary GDP by changing approaches to budget formation and diversifying sources of budget and tax policy have been confirmed. Features of the emergence of new trends in the functioning of the budget and tax policy in the context of globalization processes are related to changes in the macroeconomic environment and have a direct impact on the country's financial policy.

COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic situation: a year on.

A year after the World Health Organization´s declaration of the novel COVID-19 as a pandemic, the global macro-economic landscape has experienced severe shocks. As a result, developed and developing countries have been saddled with intense economic uncertainties. In this study, we discuss the global macro-economic environment during the pandemic declaration period and juxtapose it with the one-year post-pandemic declaration. The evidence shows significant negative impacts on macro-economic variables in the year of the declaration. However, signs of recovery are evident a year on, albeit slowly. To sustain and accelerate the recovery gains, we suggest that strategic macro-management policies are designed and strictly implemented. Anything short of this will see especially fragile countries plunged into an "economic abyss" with severe sociopolitical implications.

ВІЙНА ЯК ЧИННИК ПІДВИЩЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕБЕЗПЕКИ В УКРАЇНІ

The work examines the impact of the war on the state of the macroeconomic environment of the country and the daily life of people within it from the point of view of determining the degree of manifestation of socio-economic danger. The importance and relevance of the conducted analysis is substantiated, since its results are aimed at improving measures to reduce the level of socio-economic danger not only in the war, but also in the post-war periods. The study of existing scientific developments made it possible to note that modern theoretical achievements are more oriented to the study of approaches to the preservation of social and economic security through the use of potential opportunities of all factors within the limits of a certain economic system. At the same time, the presented scientific publications do not fully take into account the negative impact of external factors, in this case – war. The article presents the essential characteristics of socio-economic danger as the antithesis of security, it is noted that aspects of security and danger always coexist within the borders of any country, therefore it should be about increasing the level of security against the background of reducing the manifestations of danger. The tools for researching the state of the national economy are characterized, namely, complex diagnostic systems and indicators for determining the degree of manifestations of threatening processes in the economy. Based on the use of the latter, the most acute problems in the national economy were identified, related to the acceleration of the transformation of threats, as forms of manifestation of danger, from potential to real. In the work, it is calculated that in the war year 2022 there will be a significant drop in real GDP by almost a third. Tax revenues to the state budget have decreased significantly, especially taxes on the profits of enterprises. The reasons for the decline in production include the destruction of production facilities and energy infrastructure, logistical restrictions, including export restrictions, and the reduction of activity in almost all branches of the economy. Despite the destructive nature of the war, Ukrainian society quickly adapted to the difficulties of the war period and found reserves (internal and external) to counteract the danger from the aggression of the Russian Federation and accelerate the steps to victory.

Brand dilemmas in the context of changes in consumer behaviour related to market crises

The current macroeconomic environment poses major challenges for brands and their communications. Consumer buying behaviour is changing, pressures on marketing budgets are mounting, the question of the meaningfulness of brand campaigns at the expense of performance is much more open in uncertain times. At the same time, brands are trying to work more with price to respond to the cooling of consumer behaviour. Pandemics, the war in Ukraine, high inflation, the conflict in Israel – all bring new challenges for brands and their marketing/communications budgets. At the same time, Generation Z is becoming economically active, which research says is very different from previous generations. Both in terms of consumer behavior and media consumption, but it is also a challenge for employers, as their work expectations are also different than they were for previous generations. Thus, the paper raises several communication dilemmas for brands in a dynamic environment based on an analysis of secondary research, relevant scholarly and professional sources, insights from Marketing Rulezz conferences and brand examples. The article is based on the topic of the VEGA project.

МЕХАНІЗМИ РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ СТРАТЕГІЇ ПОВОЄННОЇ РОЗБУДОВИ В УКРАЇНІ ЗЕЛЕНОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

The article has been devoted to solving the urgent issue of developing a sound system of economic policy mechanisms to ensure the recovery of Ukraine from the consequences of the war. It has been emphasized that the post-war recovery should be based on a clear and comprehensive concept, in which the factors of sustainable development, green economy, and social inclusion must play a significant role. According to these factors and the system of reasonable principles for the development of the green economy in Ukraine, the author has proposed such the system of mechanisms: financial&investment mechanism, infrastructural mechanism, integration mechanism and innovation mechanism. The author assesses the investment&financial mechanism as being related to the crossborder movement of investment and credit capital, funds of official development assistance, as well as the introduction of tax and budgetary instruments to stimulate the green transition. The main elements of this mechanism have been proposed in the article. The article also provides an assessment of the infrastructural mechanism of the post-war development of the green economy in the context of the system of internal measures and tools aimed at improving the macroeconomic environment of business activities and effective management of green transformation processes. The author's list of relevant tools of this mechanism has been given in the article. The author emphasized that the integration mechanism of the post-war development of the green economy in Ukraine has been designed to ensure the formation of a coherent national and global green economy and the corresponding internal and external integration. The article offers relevant tools of this mechanism. Characterizing the innovative mechanism of the post-war development of the green economy, the author substantiates its leading role in ensuring the processes of green transformation as a key scientific and technical resource of post-industrial development. The author's list of tools that ensure the implementation of this mechanism has been given in the article.

COVID-19 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT ON SMES SURVIVAL

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has adversely affected the global community and like most countries, Kenya has not been spared, Kenya’s international trade performance, its financial and commodity markets, and the entire macroeconomic environment have all been affected (Gui2de EA., 2019).SMEs have been vulnerable to the effects of the covid-19 pandemic as seen in the report by the International Trade Centre, (2020) it was uncovered that two-thirds of these SMEs have had their operations strongly impacted by the pandemic with two-thirds of all businesses claiming that same in Africa. Moreover, informal businesses are at a higher risk of closing down and are more susceptible to the effects of the pandemic due to their reduced ability to access financing. SMEs in Kenya have been facing unprecedented income losses and uncertainties about their future because of business disruptions due to the outbreak of COVID19. Most SMEs do not have financial reserves to meet expenses during emergencies. SMEs need Knowledge management support to access and adopt digital technologies as well as respond to the current pandemic situation and for long-term transformation (Diana, S. et al., 2020). To increase their understanding of consumer needs, the business environment, and the actions of their rivals, SMEs must engage in knowledge acquisition, which is the process of gathering information from a variety of sources (Koohang, et al., 2017). Knowledge management, a process of acquiring, converting, applying, and protecting knowledge assets, is crucial for value creation. The purpose of this paper is to integrate these Knowledge management processes (knowledge acquisition, knowledge conversion, knowledge application, and knowledge protection), into the SMEs to help them adapt and respond to the current pandemic. This paper seeks to discuss some knowledge management initiatives to help SMEs handle these critical issues of the COVID-19 pandemic that will help them to sustain livelihood in the pandemic and eventually encourage knowledge management initiatives such as avoiding misinformation, psych educational, and, developing competencies such as resilience, agility, and ambiguity tolerance in the SMEs that can work to tackle the pandemic crisis.

Management of industrial development projects in special economic zone

Article examines problem of improving efficiency of industrial development project management in special economic zones (SEZ) at various stages of their life cycle. Conducted analysis of functioning features of SEZs in the context of implementation state policy on their development in the Russian Federation (RF), with subsequent determination nature of prevailing trends and changes in application of this tool in macroeconomic environment to promote economic activity. To solve problem that posed in study, authors have developed a method for evaluating effectiveness of industrial development project management in SEZ, which consists in using the benefits and advantages of preferential management regime in the activities of construction organizations implementing similar projects. Purpose of study is to improve methods of assessing effectiveness of management activities for implementation project activities in the SEZ based on a balanced spatial arrangement of construction objects. Result of research consists in development a model that describes role of SEZ in ensuring improvement of industrial and construction sphere of state and creation a project management assessment method that considers provisions of spatial development strategy. Key research methods that served as basis for solving scientific problems are theoretical analysis, synthesis, measurement, and modeling. In addition, article pays special attention to reflection the role of "one window" principle, which operates on SEZ territory and has a positive impact on implementation investment and construction projects (ICPs). Authors of study suggest that possibility of accelerated passage of administrative procedures for obtaining executive permits for construction activities largely shapes effectiveness of industrial development projects.

Investment Bank, Financial Performance, Economic growth and Development: An Empirical Analysis of Investment Banking Activities and Financial Market in an emerging Economy: A case study of Nigeria

The investment bank's performance was researched and critically analysed, and how such performance might contribute to economic growth notably in Nigeria. This study is unique in the Nigerian financial market since it empirically studied connected characteristics that potentially impact investment bank performance in Nigeria. This study spanned the years 1996 through 2022. The period was marked by a credit boom, a financial recession, a rebound, and strong economic expansion. Because of the nature of the study topics, a quantitative approach was taken. The study discovered that bank-specific characteristics, industry-specific factors, macroeconomic drivers, and institutional factors are relevant in evaluating the performance of Nigerian investment banks. That is, a critical examination of the performance of Nigerian investment banks is centred on bank-specific characteristics. This suggests that the capacity of investment banks to fulfil their essential functions is determined by internal factors such as capital, credit risk, operating expenditures, and size. Additionally, the industry strength demonstrated that the financial market's depth had an influence on investment banks. The significance of competitiveness was underlined. Macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth, interest rates, inflation rates, and oil prices shown that a strong macroeconomic environment is required for vibrant investment banks. Lastly, institutional variables such as a developed insurance industry, political stability, the rule of law, and effective government policies can all have an impact on the success of Nigerian investment banks. The research recommended that, in order to significantly improve the performance of investment banks in Nigeria, the following strategies be pursued aggressively: cost reduction strategy, cultural transformation, adopting a customer-centric approach to business, technological development, financial depth development, and development of a sustainable investment bank framework. This study believes that if the recommendations are adopted, investment banks' profits would improve, allowing them to execute their core functions and contribute to the growth of the economy, particularly in a rising economy like Nigeria. &nbsp

К ВОПРОСУ МОРАТОРИЯ НА БАНКРОТСТВО ПРИ НЕБЛАГОПРИЯТНЫХ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ УСЛОВИЯХ

This article discusses the question of the advisability of introducing a moratorium on bankruptcy in an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, for example, during the covid period. The results of the introduction of a moratorium on bankruptcy in the Russian Federation and the practical necessity of using the Russian experience in the Republic of Belarus are analyzed. Based on the available official data and the experience of a number of business entities, it was concluded that it would be inappropriate to introduce a moratorium on bankruptcy in the Republic of Belarus.

Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together

Examining a parsimonious, yet comprehensive, set of recession signals yields three lessons. First, signals from financial markets, leading indicators of activity, and gauges of the macroeconomic environment are each useful at different horizons, with leading indicators and financial signals informative at short horizons and the state of the business cycle at medium horizons. Second, approaches emphasizing the yield curve overstate the recession signal from the term spread if other factors are not considered; given correlations among indicators, these differences are often small, but were large in 2022. Finally, simulations of a reduced-form vector autoregression of unemployment and financial conditions, which captures the time-series properties of the series well, suggest the patterns are consistent with a typical hump-shape characterization of business cycle dynamics; this synthesis tightens the connections of the recession prediction literature with the business-cycle literature.