ВІЙНА ЯК ЧИННИК ПІДВИЩЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕБЕЗПЕКИ В УКРАЇНІ

Abstract

The work examines the impact of the war on the state of the macroeconomic environment of the country and the daily life of people within it from the point of view of determining the degree of manifestation of socio-economic danger. The importance and relevance of the conducted analysis is substantiated, since its results are aimed at improving measures to reduce the level of socio-economic danger not only in the war, but also in the post-war periods. The study of existing scientific developments made it possible to note that modern theoretical achievements are more oriented to the study of approaches to the preservation of social and economic security through the use of potential opportunities of all factors within the limits of a certain economic system. At the same time, the presented scientific publications do not fully take into account the negative impact of external factors, in this case – war. The article presents the essential characteristics of socio-economic danger as the antithesis of security, it is noted that aspects of security and danger always coexist within the borders of any country, therefore it should be about increasing the level of security against the background of reducing the manifestations of danger. The tools for researching the state of the national economy are characterized, namely, complex diagnostic systems and indicators for determining the degree of manifestations of threatening processes in the economy. Based on the use of the latter, the most acute problems in the national economy were identified, related to the acceleration of the transformation of threats, as forms of manifestation of danger, from potential to real. In the work, it is calculated that in the war year 2022 there will be a significant drop in real GDP by almost a third. Tax revenues to the state budget have decreased significantly, especially taxes on the profits of enterprises. The reasons for the decline in production include the destruction of production facilities and energy infrastructure, logistical restrictions, including export restrictions, and the reduction of activity in almost all branches of the economy. Despite the destructive nature of the war, Ukrainian society quickly adapted to the difficulties of the war period and found reserves (internal and external) to counteract the danger from the aggression of the Russian Federation and accelerate the steps to victory.