Modeling enterprises’ economic security in crisis conditions

Abstract

Purpose. To create a mathematical model for assessing, analyzing and forecasting the economic security of the enterprise in a crisis. To create an algorithm for assessing the levels of economic security. Methodology. In the scientific research, the results of which are given in the presented article, general and special methods of cognition were used. The method of logical generalization is used to substantiate the relevance of the topic, purpose and objectives of the study, to determine the essential features of indicators of economic security of the enterprise. The method of comparative analysis, quantitative and qualitative comparison is used to identify an integrated indicator that correlates with the characteristics of economic security and to provide analytical and predictive results of profitability of all activities of the enterprises of the industry and on its separate branches. The method of mathematical formalization is used for the formation of a mathematical model and algorithm for assessing the level of threat to the economic security of the enterprise. Findings. It is proposed to create a mathematical model by integrating individual blocks that use different mathematical approaches. This model is designed for analytical study on various aspects of economic security of the enterprise. Algorithms are proposed for estimating the levels of economic security (critical, dangerous, unsatisfactory, satisfactory, optimal ones) and also determining them using an integrated indicator that characterizes these levels; finding its deterministic, probabilistic and fuzzy components; a step-by-step increase in the relevance of the analysis of the level of economic security. It is also proposed to compare the effects of the crisis on enterprises in different industries and to gradually calculate integrated indicators in the areas of economic security for a homogeneous group of enterprises selected by industry, size and region. This provides an opportunity to see more broadly the threats and depth of the crisis and to implement measures to neutralize its consequences more effectively. Originality. The mathematical model for assessing and forecasting the economic security of enterprises in crisis conditions has been created. It is proposed to conduct a permanent rapid analysis and forecast of the impact of the crisis on the economic security of the enterprise using a standardized integrated index of economic security. An algorithm of step-by-step increase in relevance of the analysis of the level of economic security is introduced. Practical value. The developed mathematical apparatus can be used both for scientific research on various aspects of economic security of enterprises, and for practical purposes to predict the impact of the consequences of the economic crisis and implement measures to prevent them. Using this mathematical apparatus, the analysis and forecast of profitability of industrial enterprises as a whole and by its individual branches were carried out. The results of this analysis can be used by the management of small, medium and large enterprises to develop production plans in a crisis.