Long-range Planning Research Articles

Energy self-supply estimation in intermediate cities

Cities are responsible for more than three quarters of greenhouse gas emissions due to their intensive use of fossil resources. Hence, proposals to modify the current urban energy model have been established. The comprehensive inclusion of renewable energies in the urban area of the intermediate city of Cuenca will be analysed. In previous studies, it was established that five renewable technologies have the greatest opportunities for implementation in the city. Therefore, this research proposes a methodological approach to establish the impact of the inclusion of each of these technologies, and the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model is used to establish the urban energy balance. Through the construction of scenarios and the evaluation of energy balances, it is concluded that it is possible to reduce the energy flows that enter the city by applying these five energy sources. The results indicate a self-supply potential of up to 33.9% of the total urban consumption; however, due to the type of local energy matrix, only 13% of this energy could be consumed under current conditions, and the remained would be surplus power. Photovoltaic (PV) technology has a significantly higher potential than the other technologies as it exceeds the electricity demand 3.19-fold. The conclusion is that the conversion of currently fuel-powered services to electrical power is necessary to maximize clean self-generation.

Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

In a rapidly changing world, scientists and their research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will be demanded to help society navigate current and emergent social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 year) planning, and participatory futures studies. It is outcome-oriented and typically involves development of scenario narratives that can inform planning in a qualitative sense. Here we describe a new quantitative approach to develop and rank 14 foresight scenarios of potential futures across a range of general and marine-relevant science domains. Indicators for each foresight were used to assess the time-specific probability of each scenario being realised and assessments by scientists were undertaken in two consecutive years to test for foresight scoring consistency and outliers (surprises). Despite high variation among scientists in scoring the year that each indicator would occur, there was overall consistency across the foresights between years. Our approach shows that foresighting can be quantitative, by using time specific evaluation of indicators which is an improvement over traditional descriptive approaches, as individual performance and changes in likelihood can be evaluated. This approach can motivate and guide strategic planning and investment decisions by scientific institutions in response to different anticipated futures and build the skills of staff in futures thinking.

Quality and Safety in Health Care, Part LXIX: Introduction to the Responsibilities of the Chief Medical Officer.

The chief medical officer (CMO) is a key member of the administration of most large health care systems. The CMO helps with communication between the medical staff and the nonphysician administrators. The CMO typically plays an important role in utilization review, ensuring compliance with laws and regulations, peer review, credentialing, and privileging. One of the most important roles of the CMO has been to improve quality and safety while keeping costs under control, although now many institutions also have quality and safety officers. In addition, the CMO plays a major role in advising the administration regarding clinical equipment purchases, including those for emerging technologies, and in long-range clinical planning.

The Impacts of Electric Vehicle Growth on Wholesale Electricity Prices in Wisconsin

This work explores the impact of the rapid growth of plug-in electric vehicles on wholesale electricity pricing. Understanding electric vehicle impacts on the grid is important for the mid- and long-range planning of transmission owners, distribution utilities, and regional system operators. Current research in electric vehicles considers technology adoption projections and the infrastructure needed to support electric vehicle growth. This work considers how projected electric vehicle growth in the State of Wisconsin would impact the transmission congestion and wholesale electricity pricing in the year 2030. We find minimal impacts on electricity prices (<2%) even under rapid growth assumptions, in which EVs comprise 5% of all vehicles in 2030. The increases seen in hourly locational marginal prices (LMPs) due to projected electric vehicle growth are, on average, less than those seen in annual changes of historic electricity prices in Wisconsin. We do find moderate, relative increases in congestion prices (+16–32%), which could provide an opportunity to align electric vehicle charging schedules with times of low transmission congestion.

LONG-RANGE PLANNING OF A PUBLIC TRANSPORT COMPANY

The purpose of this research article is to explain how a public transport company should operate, using long-range planning as a technique. But what is long-range planning and why is it important? Briefly, we will say that it maintains the business study in the future as well as in the present, it reinforces the principles acquired in the mission, vision and strategy, it promotes interdisciplinary planning and communication, it assigns priorities in the destination of resources, it is the bridge with the process of tactical planning that forces the executives to see the planning from the perspectives of the present in responsibilities of fulfillment of future goals, it maintains the administrative team united to translate the The mission, vision and strategy are translated into tangible results. Long-range planning leads to positioning, providing the tools to focus on the positions the company needs to achieve, such as future markets, technology, human development and financial forecasting. The company studied has three main activities: it transports passengers. It currently operates on the following routes: part from the city of Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The basic objective of the research is to develop the long-range planning of a company that transports passengers. Long-range planning of the company's future activities over the next five years will make it possible to draw up the long-range production plan, the long-range human resources plan, the long-range cash flow plan, the long-range tax plan, the long-range marketing plan and the long-range customer service plan.

Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Prediction-based approaches, the heart of current transportation planning practice, are inadequate for informing transportation decisions in today’s rapidly changing conditions. In this study we offer an initial demonstration of how robust decision making (RDM) might enhance current long-range planning by applying the approach to selected components of Sacramento Area Council of Government’s (SACOG’s) 2016 regional transportation plan. RDM, a quantitative, exploratory, scenario-based method, informs decisions under deep uncertainty by stress-testing proposed plans over thousands of plausible futures, identifying scenarios that best distinguish futures in which plans meet and miss planning goals, and using these scenarios to identify more robust plans. Our analysis suggests that SACOG’s ability to meet critical mobility and climate goals depends on socioeconomic growth, fuel price, and fuel efficiency assumptions. This study explores potential responses to these vulnerabilities and suggests a path toward wider RDM usage in transportation planning. Our study is limited by the use of a simple cohort model, calibrated to a single predictive scenario run of SACOG’s Sacramento Regional Activity-Based Simulation Model (SACSIM) travel demand model. A more complete RDM analysis would require multiple runs of a model with more explicit treatments of feedbacks and spatial representations.Takeaway for practice: RDM offers a promising complement and possibly future alternative to current prediction-based and scenario approaches that could help planners better manage in today’s conditions of fast-paced change.

GaitMesh: Controller-Aware Navigation Meshes for Long-Range Legged Locomotion Planning in Multi-Layered Environments

Long-range locomotion planning is an important problem for the deployment of legged robots to real scenarios. Current methods used for legged locomotion planning often do not exploit the flexibility of legged robots, and do not scale well with environment size. In this letter we propose the use of navigation meshes for deployment in large-scale multi-floor sites. We leverage this representation to improve long-term locomotion plans in terms of success rates, path costs and reasoning about which gait-controller to use when. We show that NavMeshes have higher planning success rates than sampling-based planners, but are 400x faster to construct and at least 100x faster to plan with. The performance gap further increases when considering multi-floor environments. We present both a procedure for building controller-aware NavMeshes and a full navigation system that adapts to changes to the environment. We demonstrate the capabilities of the system in simulation experiments and in field trials at a real-world oil rig facility.

How the Committee on Minority Affairs is catalyzing change

In 1993, the American Chemical Society organized and charged the Committee on Minority Affairs (CMA) to develop and oversee the society’s long-range plans and programs to ensure, promote, and recognize the participation and accomplishments of minorities. CMA has taken this charge and developed a mission statement that aligns with that of ACS: advancing a broader, inclusive, and equitable chemistry enterprise by empowering underrepresented groups, stakeholders, and marginalized peoples for the benefit of the world. We have developed three major goals to help us achieve this mission: (1) increase diversity awareness by providing professional development and recognition opportunities to underrepresented groups within the chemical sciences; (2) strengthen ACS programming to reflect a broader, more inclusive, and equitable chemistry enterprise; and (3) enhance shared expertise in diversity, equity, and inclusion content and act as a resource to societal stakeholders. These goals are ambitious and require partn...

Projecting the urban energy demand for Indiana, USA, in 2050 and 2080

Energy use is one of the largest drivers of climate change, but the large share of energy used for space heating and cooling is also driven by climate change. Demand for energy, particularly cooling, is important for long-range infrastructure planning. Urban areas represent a very small proportion of total land, but usually consume the majority of energy. In this work, statistical, top-down approaches are used to model residential and commercial urban energy demand changes in Indiana, a state in the Midwest region of the USA, in 2050 and 2080 under the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. By modeling energy demand changes in urban areas in Indiana, we can project the majority of energy demand while placing it in a spatial perspective that is missing from the statewide estimates. Two time periods are used to give an intuitive time stamp and temporal perspective. Results indicate that Indiana’s northernmost cities are expected to show significantly increased residential cooling demand due to climate change by 2080. Indianapolis represents an increasing share of total urban commercial and residential energy use over the next 60 years. Transportation is expected to represent a larger share of energy use as heating demand declines under climate change scenarios.

Managerial Decision on Strategic Objectives in Global Environment

Managerial decision making is important in an enterprise and in leadership. Strategic objectives are, in general, objectives that an enterprise have to achieve to make its long-range plan that means a strategy succeed, especially in globalized environment. Each enterprise currently face the globalization that is why these enterprise have to know what can be done to achieve enterprise objectives more effectively within the future. The aim of the paper is to identify factors which can have an impact on decision making in the area of strategic objectives. Analysis shows the influence of selected variables such as financial performance, passion for work, managerial skills and communicated strategy on strategic objectives setting to be more open and dynamic or international. The paper is based on primary data collection from a recent survey of enterprises from the Czech Republic and on comparison with international resources focused on decision on strategic objectives. The primary research provides the support for relationships importance between selected variables for the managerial decision on strategic objectives. The secondary research introduces what specifically affects those variables. Moreover, the paper highlights that with managerial skills, a manager will assist the enterprise in achieving its objectives and business performance.

Vicksburg: Grant's Campaign That Broke the Confederacy by Donald L. Miller

Reviewed by: Vicksburg: Grant's Campaign That Broke the Confederacy by Donald L. Miller Stephen D. Engle Vicksburg: Grant's Campaign That Broke the Confederacy. By Donald L. Miller. (New York and other cities: Simon and Schuster, 2019. Pp. xx, 663. $35.00, ISBN 978-1-4516-4137-0.) Approaching the Civil War's centennial, Bruce Catton wrote that as much as the northern people looked anxiously in early July 1863 toward Pennsylvania where the "threads of fate" pulled Robert E. Lee into the titanic three-day battle [End Page 921] at Gettysburg, "the real pull of fate was at Vicksburg. . . . down here by the great river" (Catton, U. S. Grant and the American Military Tradition [Boston, 1954], p. 104). More than sixty-five years later, Donald L. Miller reminds us of that truth, even while scholars continue to write Gettysburg onto center stage. Although Vicksburg, Mississippi, was the most important strategic point in the Confederacy, the prosperous river city did not need a civil war to emphasize its importance. One needs only to look at a map to understand why. That scholars continue to chronicle the Union's victorious forty-seven-day siege confirms its centrality to understanding why the North won and why the Confederacy lost the Civil War. In Ulysses S. Grant's own words, "The fate of the Confederacy was sealed when Vicksburg fell" (Personal Memoirs of U. S. Grant, Vol. 1 [New York, 1885], p. 567). He was right to affirm that Vicksburg was the Civil War's transformative campaign, in that his army's conquest of the Mississippi River's Gibraltar opened the Father of Waters to Union commerce, split the Confederacy, and isolated the western slave states of Arkansas and Texas and part of Louisiana. More than that, the campaign showcased Grant's mastery of maneuver and adaptation in a hostile environment, while also handling the battles and raids on his way to the final assault. Miller argues that Grant's brilliance was more than just organizing an extraordinary amphibious assault on the Confederate citadel; it also gave evidence of a superior commander determining by thought, action, and deed the politics of war. Handling Abraham Lincoln's, Henry W. Halleck's, and the public's impatience, while managing troublesome political generals such as John A. McClernand, proved to be an equally significant accomplishment. If his unorthodox decisions went against his superior's accepted theories of war, Grant handled the complexities of leadership, strategy, administration, public affairs, logistics, and politics in ways that prepared for what was to come. The commander moved with great skill, and his long-range planning and persistence in a hostile environment not only won the battle of combatants but also transformed that environment by turning slave soil into free soil. His campaign's significance dwarfed anything undertaken in the eastern theater largely because it unleashed a social revolution that culminated in the liberation of nearly 100,000 slaves and brought some 26,000 slaves into the Union army. In the end, Grant's improvisational genius comes alive in this portrait because Miller illuminates the river warrior in ways that humanize the Union commander's strategic ebbs and flows in the heartland's hostile landscape. It is the story of not only the war's great military turning point, but also how America's greatest soldier evolved into an insightful commander and a military emancipator of the quarter million slaves living in the lower Mississippi River Valley. To be sure, several scholars have told this same story, but Miller has found a way to weave both military and emancipation history together that captures the drama and the essence of what it means to wage war while humanizing ordinary men doing extraordinary things. It takes such a book to remind us of why the war is always present. [End Page 922] Stephen D. Engle Florida Atlantic University Copyright © 2020 Southern Historical Association

Energy Framework and Policy Direction Guidelines: Ghana 2017–2050 Perspectives

Ghana currently has no future energy strategic plan or framework for its generation system apart from the Energy Policy developed by the Energy Commission (EC). The EC based its research on the year 2000 parameters and estimated the energy system up to 2020, which cannot entirely address the current challenges facing the energy sector. The main objective of this paper is to develop an integrated energy planning (IEP) framework for Ghana as a guideline for addressing energy challenges, to promote energy efficiency in both demand and transmission, CO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> emissions reduction, and the utilization of renewable energy sources (RES). The methods used are content analysis, multiple case study, and procedure for IEP framework development. The primary computer tool used for the analysis and future energy projections was Long-range Energy Alternative Planning. The demand forecast was performed using key input parameters, including Gross Domestic Product, population change and urbanization. The overall results of this study suggest 40% of non-conventional renewable energy resources into the country's energy mix, proposed energy efficiency promotion in both demand and transmission, and the utilization of RES integration to save the nation up to about 40% CO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> emissions reduction. The paper recommends strategies to reduce losses in the transmission and distribution systems of Ghana. The paper again recommends the revenues accrued from the carbon tax for maintenance work on the existing equipment, and finally, an integrated energy planning framework was developed to serve as a roadmap for Ghana's energy sector up to the year 2050.

A spatial panel regression model to measure the effect of weather events on freight truck traffic

Truck drivers adhere to delivery schedules making them more likely to reroute rather than cancel a trip when faced with inclement weather. While previous studies modeled the direct effects of adverse weather on total traffic volumes, none considered the particular implications for trucks. The ability to predict spatial and temporal shifts in truck traffic resulting from adverse weather is novel and useful for decision makers tasked with long-range freight planning and for the trucking industry. With deeper insights into rerouting around adverse weather, the trucking industry will be able to more efficiently plan and accurately estimate billable miles. Thus, this study applied dynamic spatial panel regression that captures rerouting behavior of trucks due to adverse weather conditions. Results showed that changes in truck traffic volume due to adverse weather conditions, e.g. surface runoff, snow mass, and humidity, exhibited spatial (direct and indirect) and temporal shifts (short and long term effects).

Seamless climate change projections and seasonal predictions for bushfires in Australia

Spatio-temporal variations in fire weather conditions are presented based on various data sets, with consistent approaches applied to help enable seamless services over different time scales. Recent research on this is shown here, covering climate change projections for future years throughout this century, predictions at multi-week to seasonal lead times and historical climate records based on observations. Climate projections are presented based on extreme metrics with results shown for individual seasons. A seasonal prediction system for fire weather conditions is demonstrated here as a new capability development for Australia. To produce a more seamless set of predictions, the data sets are calibrated based on quantile-quantile matching for consistency with observations-based data sets, including to help provide details around extreme values for the model predictions (demonstrating the quantile matching for extremes method). Factors influencing the predictability of conditions are discussed, including pre-existing fuel moisture, large-scale modes of variability, sudden stratospheric warmings and climate trends. The extreme 2019–2020 summer fire season is discussed, with examples provided on how this suite of calibrated fire weather data sets was used, including long-range predictions several months ahead provided to fire agencies. These fire weather data sets are now available in a consistent form covering historical records back to 1950, long-range predictions out to several months ahead and future climate change projections throughout this century. A seamless service across different time scales is intended to enhance long-range planning capabilities and climate adaptation efforts, leading to enhanced resilience and disaster risk reduction in relation to natural hazards.

Multicriteria analysis of planned intercity bus terminals in the metropolitan city of Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract This paper proposes a methodology of decision making and policy guidance based on a multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) method for a comprehensive evaluation of intercity bus terminals in Istanbul, Turkey. Since decisions on the location of bus terminals in large agglomerations determine transportation costs and the quality of service of public transport passengers, the use of multicriteria analysis becomes necessary. In that respect, the intercity bus terminals proposed by 2023 Long-Range Landuse Plan (LRLUP) and 2023 Transportation Master Plan (TMP) of Istanbul are examined based on decision criteria of accessibility and suitability within the environment they are located. The multi-criteria analysis was performed using the additive value (AV) model to evaluate the locations of existing and planned intercity bus terminals in Istanbul based on their specific location characteristics defined. Criteria used in the analysis are the location within the region, population coverage and density, land value, accessibility by highway and public transit modes, availability of land for capacity expansion, and the surrounding land-use and geological characteristics. Based on the design criteria assessed, a general score for the location of each intercity bus-terminal (two existing and nine planned) was calculated using normalized importance weights obtained from an expert survey, and then the terminals were ranked based on their scores calculated for the base (2010 and before) and plan years (2023), respectively. Based on their total score, they were ranked and grouped into three categories as follows: (1) scores higher than 0.75, (2) between 0.51 and 0.75, and (3) equal to or smaller than 0.50. All planned terminals scored equal or higher than 0.50 (two out of nine are in the first category, six are in the second category, and one is in the third category), and this proved that all of them were planned where they were needed. Then, an availability analysis was carried out to identify the configurations of the bus terminals depending on each other, which is deemed to yield their best configuration. The results of this paper will be of relevance to urban and transportation planners facing a decision to make and prioritize transport planning decisions concerning the spatial planning of a metropolitan city based on chosen decision criteria.

Developing a supply chain organisational structure to gain competitive advantage in today’s marketplace

The purpose of this paper is to apply change management principles as developed by Kübler-Ross and Kotter and combine them with Tuckman’s team development model to build a strategic proactive supply chain team. We will explore various tools, techniques and communication plans to form an organisational structure that supports early supply chain interaction in regard to design engineering and even as far up the chain as business capture. Supply chain, at its best, can help gain competitive advantage in terms of long-range planning and preparation. We need to be knowledgeable about ever-changing laws and regulations and develop strategic supply partners, while facing increased cost and schedule pressure to remain competitive in a global market.

CO2 Mitigation in the Power Sector of Thailand: Analyses of Cleaner Supply-side Options Beyond the Paris Agreement

Background: The drastically increasing share of fossil fuel supply to meet the rapidly growing electricity demand resulting in increasing Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, is the major concern in Thailand. In 2015, fossil fuels used in electricity generation in Thailand accounted for around 85.3% of the total electricity generation. Aim: The aim of the study is to analyze carbon dioxide mitigation options under the cleaner supply-side option beyond the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of Thailand. Methods: In this study, the Long-range Energy Planning (LEAP) model is used to analyze the share of electricity generation and CO2 mitigation from four main different scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy (RE), Carbon Capture Storage (CCS), and Carbon Tax (CT) scenarios during 2015 to 2050. The BAU scenario is constructed following the power development targets of the Power Development Plan in 2015. Results: The results illustrate that in the BAU scenario, electricity generation and carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector will increase by 57.7% and 37.3%, respectively in 2050 as compared to 2015. The imposition of carbon tax of $20/tCO2 from 2020 and an increase to $500/t CO2 by 2050 will have a high potential to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector as compared with other scenarios. Conclusion: Results show that except for the RE scenarios considering the lower share of solar and biomass, all scenarios would help Thailand in achieving the target of INDC by 2030. Results provide that the share of imported electricity is higher with the imposition of carbon tax as compared to the scenarios with the promotion of renewable energy, CCS and EV technology.

An approach of estimating school enrolment with Reconstructive Cohort Approach

Policy makers and planners require enrolment data for undertaking an exercise of future planning in respect of educational development. The enrolment projection is an important planning tool to assist in long-range planning and developing action-plans related to resource allocation and system capacity. Various statistical and mathematical models or methods are discussed in past literature and articles which have some prior condition about certain parameters. Accuracy in data is another crucial aspect during the estimation. Reconstructive Cohort could be one such best approach which may be used to estimate the school enrolment figures for the next ‘n’ period. It does not require particular prior information other than repetition rate and transition rate. Enrolment is a function of population. So, the estimation of the age-appropriate population of school-entry age i.e. age 6 years (in India) and conversion of population age-groups data into school fitted age-groups data is required. In this paper, we discussed how Reconstructive Cohort Approach is applicable in certain situation and process of estimating school enrolment of India for the next decade along with other parameters.

RL-RRT: Kinodynamic Motion Planning via Learning Reachability Estimators From RL Policies

This letter addresses two challenges facing samplingbased kinodynamic motion planning: a way to identify good candidate states for local transitions and the subsequent computationally intractable steering between these candidate states. Through the combination of sampling-based planning, a Rapidly Exploring Randomized Tree (RRT) and an efficient kinodynamic motion planner through machine learning, we propose an efficient solution to long-range planning for kinodynamic motion planning. First, we use deep reinforcement learning to learn an obstacle-avoiding policy that maps a robot's sensor observations to actions, which is used as a local planner during planning and as a controller during execution. Second, we train a reachability estimator in a supervised manner, which predicts the RL policy's time to reach a state in the presence of obstacles. Lastly, we introduce RL-RRT that uses the RL policy as a local planner, and the reachability estimator as the distance function to bias tree-growth towards promising regions. We evaluate our method on three kinodynamic systems, including physical robot experiments. Results across all three robots tested indicate that RL-RRT outperforms state of the art kinodynamic planners in efficiency, and also provides a shorter path finish time than a steering function free method. The learned local planner policy and accompanying reachability estimator demonstrate transferability to the previously unseen experimental environments, making RL-RRT fast because the expensive computations are replaced with simple neural network inference.

A Methodology to Assess Land Use Development, Flooding, and Wetland Change as Indicators of Coastal Vulnerability

Coastal areas around the world are becoming increasingly urban, which has increased stress to both natural and anthropogenic systems. In the United States, 52% of the population lives along the coast, and North Carolina is in the top 10 fastest growing states. Within North Carolina, the southeastern coast is the fastest growing region in the state. Therefore, this research has developed a methodology that investigates the complex relationship between urbanization, land cover change, and potential flood risk and tested the approach in a rapidly urbanizing region. A variety of data, including satellite (PlanetScope) and airborne imagery (NAIP and Lidar) and vector data (C-CAP, FEMA floodplains, and building permits), were used to assess changes through space and time. The techniques consisted of (1) matrix change analysis, (2) a new approach to analyzing shorelines by computing adjacency statistics for changes in wetland and urban development, and (3) calculating risk using a fishnet, or tessellation, where hexagons of equal size (15 ha) were ranked into high, medium, and low risk and comparing these results with the amount of urbanization. As other research has shown, there was a significant relationship between residential development and wetland loss. Where urban development has yet to occur, most of the remaining area is at risk to flooding. Importantly, the combined methods used in this study have identified at-risk areas and places where wetlands have migrated/transgressed in relationship to urban development. The combination of techniques developed here has resulted in data that local government planners are using to evaluate current development regulations and incorporating into the new long-range plan for the County that will include smart growth and identification of risk. Additionally, results from this study area are being utilized in an application to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Community Response System which will provide residents with lower flood insurance costs.