Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Research Articles

Exploring hydrogen metallurgy to CO2 emissions reduction in China’s iron and steel production: An analysis based on the life cycle CO2 emissions – LEAP model

Previous research has primarily assessed the environmental impact of hydrogen metallurgy from technical or project perspectives, lacking a life cycle perspective. The impact of continued cleanliness of the hydrogen production mix and power generation structure on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the hydrogen metallurgy production process has not been investigated on a medium to long-term scale, which does not provide an adequate and comprehensive view of the contribution of hydrogen metallurgy to China’s emissions reduction, resulting in short-sighted technology choices. To address this lack, we construct a bottom-up energy system model that combines life cycle CO2 emissions with long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP), including iron and steel (IS) production, power generation, and hydrogen production. Setting development paths of two typical hydrogen metallurgy technologies, including business-as-usual (BAU) and hydrogen metallurgy (HM) scenarios, we carefully evaluate the CO2 emissions impact of hydrogen metallurgy from a whole industry perspective and in each IS production stage. The results suggest that the hydrogen metallurgy transition will help the iron and steel industry (ISI) to achieve peak and deep carbon reduction. Under the HM scenario, CO2 emissions from the ISI would decrease to 816.28 million tons (Mt) in 2050, representing an additional 281.13 Mt reduction over the BAU scenario. Hydrogen metallurgy can accelerate CO2 reduction in raw material acquisition and material processing phases but may increase CO2 emissions in manufacturing and recycling phases. In 2050, hydrogen metallurgy will contribute an additional 12.49 Mt and 300.95 Mt of CO2 reduction to the raw material acquisition and material processing phases, respectively. However, CO2 emissions in the manufacturing and recycling phases would be 32.15 Mt and 0.22 Mt more than in the BAU scenario due to the increased electricity consumption and scrap demand of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, respectively. Over time, the optimization of hydrogen production and power supply mix will gradually reduce CO2 emissions in each IS production process. In 2050, the CO2 intensity of the hydrogen-rich shaft furnace direct reduced iron (H2-DRI)-EAF process will drop to 753.41 kgCO2/t, which is lower than all other processes except the 100 % scrap-based EAF process. Advancing the development of the H2-DRI-EAF process can effectively achieve CO2 emissions reduction while alleviating dependence on scrap resources. The results are expected to inform government policy on the development of hydrogen metallurgy in China and other countries.

Estimation of energy demand and carbon emissions for the road transport sector: A case study of Douala, Cameroon

Road transport is one of the main causes of air pollution around the world. Nowadays, the notion of sustainable development is one of the major pillars for a healthy environment. However, faced with its major challenges, it is more than necessary and important to understand a set of elements which contribute to better understanding the level of planning for sustainable road transport. This study aims to estimate energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions, namely from road CO2 transport, for the city of Douala in Cameroon from 2010 to 2035. In order to achieve our objective, we used the Long range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. Based on the LEAP model, the estimates were evaluated based on three scenarios Business As Usual (BAU), Energy Optimization and Mitigation (EOM) and Sustainability Mobility (SM). The aim of this work was to identify suitable potential policies with a view to reducing energy consumption and emissions carbon dioxide (CO2) for road transport in Douala. The results tell us that the EOM and SM scenarios have advantages over the BAU scenario with the SM scenario being more optimistic than the other two scenarios. In addition, the SM scenario has a growth rate of 87.408 % in energy demand smaller than the other two scenarios BAU and EOM respectively 151.598 % and 132.073 %. We also note that the SM scenario contributed to a reduction of 60.661 kilo ton emissions of CO2 less than the BAU scenario. At present, with a view to reducing energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions, road vehicles in circulation in the city of Douala should emphasize structural optimization measures through the use of clean energy by promoting the use of biofuels in mass transport, eliminating old cars and finally considering improving energy efficiency through the implementation of technological development in the automobile sector. Policy makers must take this study into consideration in order to better integrate the notion of energy sustainable road transport.

Promote the decarbonization pathways of eco-industrial parks by considering their CO2 emissions structures and characters

China has proposed the goals of a carbon peaking target in 2030 and a carbon neutrality target in 2060 to mitigate climate change. In China, Eco-industrial parks (EIPs) are one of the platforms for achieving energy conservation and emission reduction. This study aims to investigate the future CO2 emissions reduction potential by evaluating two different types of national EIPs in China. Firstly, we constructed carbon emission inventories for EIP-N in Zhejiang Province and EIP-L in Shandong Province. Subsequently, leveraging these inventories, we developed an integrated model aimed at predicting the carbon emission peaks for both EIPs and discerning the main contributors. Secondly, we took EIP-N and EIP-L as examples and applied the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to establish three different scenarios for analyzing the future trends in carbon emissions. In a Business as usual (BAU) scenario (continue the current energy conservation and emission reduction policies), EIP-L can achieve carbon peaking, while the carbon emissions of EIP-N will continue to increase. In the Emissions control (EMC) scenario (considering the reduction of fossil fuels and the increased use of cleaner energy sources), EIP-N and EIP-L are projected to peak in 2029 and 2027, respectively. In the Reinforce mitigation (RFM) scenario (with fewer emissions from fuels and a higher share of clean energy generation), both EIPs are expected to achieve carbon peaking by 2025. Finally, we proposed the deep decarbonization of EIPs with different industrial characteristics. This study applied the LEAP model to the EIP scale, explored the paths of deep decarbonization development in different EIPs under the constraint of dual-carbon targets, providing a demonstration for China and other developing countries to achieve the goal of carbon capping in EIPs during rapid industrialization.

Pathways for carbon emission prediction and mitigation of sustainable industrial parks: a LEAP model application

ABSTRACT Industrial parks play a crucial role as a carrier of industrial clusters and energy consumption. Accurately predicting the energy demand and carbon emissions trend is key to scientifically determining the pathways for low-carbon industrial parks. However, exploration in carbon emission prediction on industrial park scale is still in its infancy stage. This paper investigates fuel demand and carbon emissions from 2021 to 2035 in an industrial park in Jiangsu Province, utilizing the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model to explore the pathways for low carbon development. Energy-saving and emission-reduction effects of different macro-economic policies and micro-energy planning are analyzed based on the energy balance and emission factor methods. Four scenarios are compared: the baseline scenario (BAS), green development scenario (GDS), low carbon scenario (LCS), and strength low carbon scenario (SLS). Results indicated that energy demand under BAS reached at 31.37 Mtce in 2035, and energy-saving rates of GDS, LCS, and SLS in 2035 were 12.94%, 14.00% and 19.08%, respectively. Carbon emissions reached 53.96 MtCO2e in BAS of 2035. However, in the same year, emissions decreased by 24.88%, 43.09%, and 52.52% in GDS, LCS, and SLS, respectively, with SLS being the most suitable for the park.

Renewable energy integration for lower emission planning and achieving regional energy independence: study in Yogyakarta

We propose and try to find a model renewable energy integration for lower emission and achieving regional energy independence. The research uses three stages. First, building an energy system model, to analyze the impact of implementing energy efficiency programs. The second stage is developing an integrated model from the energy demand and supply. Finally, arranging a mitigation scenarios to develop a low-carbon energy and achieving energy independence. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software was utilized to simulate two scenarios are used to analyze energy demand and supply, namely Baseline scenarios and Mitigation scenarios. Mitigation Scenario is a combination of Energy Efficiency (EE) scenario, Fuel Substitution (FS), mode change scenario (MC), and efficient vehicle (EV) scenario and is used to analyze their impact on energy demand and GHG emissions. The results showed that mitigation scenarios can reduce energy demand by 22.86% when compared to the baseline scenario. In 2050, energy demand based on the mitigation scenario is 147.15 x 103 TJ, higher than based on the baseline scenario, which energy demand is 113.52 x 103 TJ. The cumulative of GHG emission reaches 1,369.37 x 103 Tons of CO2 Equivalent, based on the baseline scenario, can be reduced 13.54% by mitigation scenario. These results are robust. Overall, this research finding provides some possible steps to develop Yogyakarta energy independence and other regions.

PROPOSAL FOR PUBLIC POLICIES TO PROMOTE AND ENCOURAGE THE GROWTH OF WIND ENERGY GENERATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

This paper proposes novel public policies aimed at incentivizing wind energy generation in the United States. In response to the imperative of transitioning to sustainable energy sources, the study explores innovative approaches to promote and accelerate the adoption of wind power. Furthermore, the research employs the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software for energy planning to simulate the forecasted impact of these proposed policies on the wind energy supply in the USA. By integrating policy recommendations with simulation results, this study provides a comprehensive analysis to guide policymakers and stakeholders in fostering the growth of wind energy as a pivotal component in the country’s renewable energy landscape.

Coordination Relationship of Carbon Emissions and Air Pollutants under Governance Measures in a Typical Industrial City in China

Coordinating and controlling carbon and atmospheric pollutant emissions in industrial cities poses challenges, making it difficult to formulate effective environmental governance strategies in China. This study used the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) models, with a typical industrial city in the Sichuan Basin as the case study. Five emission reduction scenarios, one integration scenario, and one baseline scenario were set to quantitatively analyze the synergistic effect between carbon emissions and atmospheric pollutant emissions. The results indicate a high synergy between sulfur dioxide and greenhouse gases. For every one-point decrease in the Air Quality Composite Index (AQCI), the Industrial Restructuring Scenario (IR), Other Source Management Scenario (OSM), Transportation Energy Efficiency Improvement Scenario (TEEI), Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement Scenario (IEEI), and Transportation Restructuring (TR) scenarios would require a reduction in carbon emissions by 56,492.79 kilotons, 39,850.45 kilotons, 34,027.5 kilotons, 22,356.58 kilotons, and 3243.33 kilotons, respectively. The results indicate that governance measures, such as improving transportation structure and upgrading industrial technologies, provide stronger support for simultaneous carbon emissions reductions and air quality improvement.

Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition

Global climate change imposes significant challenges on the ecological environment and human sustainability. Industrial parks, in line with the national climate change mitigation strategy, are key targets for low-carbon revolution within the industrial sector. To predict the carbon emission of industrial parks and formulate the strategic path of emission reduction, this paper amalgamates the benefits of the “top-down” and “bottom-up” prediction methodologies, incorporating the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model, and integrates the Tapio decoupling theory to predict the carbon emissions of an industrial park cluster of an economic development zone in Yancheng from 2020 to 2035 under baseline (BAS) and low-carbon scenarios (LC1, LC2, and LC3). The findings suggest that, in comparison to the BAS scenario, the carbon emissions in the LC1, LC2, and LC3 scenarios decreased by 30.4%, 38.4%, and 46.2%, respectively, with LC3 being the most suitable pathway for the park’s development. Finally, the paper explores carbon emission sources, and analyzes emission reduction potential and optimization measures of the energy structure, thus providing a reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies for industrial parks.

Analysis of Hydroelectric Power Plants in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

This study aims to determine the amount of potential renewable energy sources of hydroelectric power plants that have been used to meet the electrical energy needs in East Kalimantan at this time, the amount of potential renewable energy sources of hydroelectric power plants that have not been used for electrical energy needs in East Kalimantan at this time, and the planning of electrical energy to provide electrical energy in the province of East Kalimantan in order to In this study, energy supply and demand in the province of East Kalimantan were analyzed using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) models. Analyze the energy supply and demand over the next thirteen years using 2012 as the starting point. The linear regression methodology used to project energy demand interpolates historical data, activity, and energy intensity. According to the study's findings, just 1,509 MW of the province of East Kalimantan's potential hydropower sources—6976.14 MW—have been used up to this point. In 2025, the population is expected to rise by 6,167,359 people, increasing the demand for electricity from 17,546,970 MWh to 20,643,495 MWh. According to the national energy management's blueprint for the goal composition of the energy mix, hydropower capacity in 2025 would have been 23,961,414 MWh or 55.56% of the overall producing capacity of 43,129,583 MWh.

Can China achieve its 2030 and 2060 CO2 commitments? Scenario analysis based on the integration of LEAP model with LMDI decomposition

China's ambitious targets of peaking its Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on or before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 have been a topic of discussion in the international community. This study innovatively combines the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model to quantitatively evaluate the CO2 emissions from energy consumption in China from 2000 to 2060. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework, the study designs five scenarios to explore the impact of different development pathways on energy consumption and related carbon emissions. The LEAP model scenarios are based on the result of LMDI decomposition, which identifies the key influencing factors on CO2 emissions. The empirical findings of this study demonstrate that the energy intensity effect is the primary factor of the 14.7 % reduction in CO2 emissions observed in China from 2000 to 2020. Conversely, the economic development level effect has been the driving factor behind the increase of 50.4 % in CO2 emissions. Additionally, the urbanization effect has contributed 24.7 % to the overall change in CO2 emissions during the same period. Furthermore, the study investigates potential future trajectories of CO2 emissions in China up to 2060, based on various scenarios. The results suggest that, under the SSP1 scenarios. China's CO2 emissions would peak in 2023 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, under the SSP4 scenarios, emissions are expected to peak in 2028, and China would need to eliminate approximately 2000 Mt of additional CO2 emissions to reach carbon neutrality. In other scenarios, China is projected to be unable to meet the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The conclusions drawn from this study offer valuable insights for potential policy adjustments to ensure that China could fulfill its commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Analysis of demand, generation, and emission for long-term sustainable power system planning using LEAP: The case of Bangladesh

The availability of quality power is a foremost need for a nation's sustainable development. The government of Bangladesh has the vision to be a high-income country by 2041. To meet the power challenges in the near future associated with the vision, there should be a well-planned master plan for the power system. Bangladesh has a power system master plan (PSMP) up to 2041. However, it is unclear whether the PSMP is the most adaptable plan considering different power generation scenarios by considering the demand, generation, and emissions. Hence, the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) tool is employed for scenario analyses of Bangladesh's electricity sector from 2022 to 2041. On the demand side, the final electricity demand has been projected as 335.25, 314.76, 376.59, and 398.10 TWh in 2041 for business-as-usual (BAU), low growth (LG), medium growth (MG), and high growth (HG) scenarios, respectively. Considering technical and environmental parameters, eight generation scenarios are also analyzed on the supply side. The analysis projected 58,230 MW capacity for BAU and LG under P1 to P8 generation scenarios and 68,830 MW capacity for MG and HG under Q1–Q8 generation scenarios in 2041. In terms of emission in 2041, 167.4 and 165 MMt CO2 equivalent are found for the P8 scenario in the case of BAU and LG. In Q8, for MG and HG, the emissions are found to be 206.5 and 209.4 MMt CO2 equivalent, respectively. The generation scenarios of P8 for BAU and LG and Q8 for MG and HG are found to be suitable ones with respect to energy reliability and reduced emission. A similar analysis could also be performed to identify suitable power generation plans for other developing countries.

Carbon neutral Bhutan: sustaining carbon neutral status under growth pressures

BackgroundBhutan has pledged to remain carbon neutral (CN) in perpetuity. Whether they can sustain this is questionable due to the country’s increasing economic growth (GDP) and commitment to gross national happiness (GNH) outcomes, both of which can lead to a rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The nexus between GHG, GNH and GDP is the essence of the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals global project.ResultsThrough scenario modelling using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, the study finds that the carbon neutral declaration will derail between 2037 and 2050 without mitigation measures. By putting in place mitigation measures especially in the industry and transport sectors, CN can be retained even under high growth pressure, which may cost just 2% of GDP. CN can be easily retained under low economic growth, but this could undermine GNH. High growth will require immediate interventions to enable electrification of industry and transport.ConclusionsThe options to remain CN will require Bhutan to adopt more efficient technologies and electrify industry and transport under both low and high growth scenarios. The additional cost to the Bhutanese economy is feasible through low and high growth opportunities. The options are similar to those confronting emerging nations struggling with issues of climate commitments under economic growth pressures. All will need to adapt their specific economic contexts to achieve the simultaneous objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals whilst addressing the net zero Paris agenda. Bhutan shows it is possible.

Study of Energy Transition Paths and the Impact of Carbon Emissions under the Dual Carbon Target

In recent years, the world’s environmental problems have become increasingly serious, and energy transition and carbon emission issues have gradually gained attention from various countries. China has promulgated several policies and adopted various reform measures to achieve a comprehensive energy transition and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. Therefore, this study makes researches and forecasts the energy transition and carbon emissions in China under the dual carbon target. A LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning) model is developed to analyze the energy parameters of Beijing under various scenarios and to provide a quantitative analysis basis for the energy transition path. The obtained experimental results indicate that the energy demand under the partial energy transition scenario and full energy transition scenarios are 68.651 million tons of standard coal and 75.759 million tons of standard coal, respectively, forming an effective control, while the carbon emissions both achieve the carbon peak in 2025 at 81.903 million tons and 80.624 million tons respectively, and achieve 46.588 million tons in 2060. The carbon-neutral pathway reaches the carbon peak in 2025, and approaches full energy transition in 2035, and finally reaches the full energy transition control effect in 2060. To date, most of the relevant studies have been conducted in a qualitative way, and the amount of quantitative analysis is insufficient. At the same time, research on the development path specifically at the city level is relatively insufficient as well. Therefore, the present study can provide a theoretical basis for specifying the promotion method of urban energy transformation and the path of carbon emission reduction.

Accounting for China’s Net Carbon Emissions and Research on the Realization Path of Carbon Neutralization Based on Ecosystem Carbon Sinks

Carbon sinks are an important way to achieve carbon neutrality. In this study, carbon emissions in each year from 2019 to 2060 were predicted by constructing the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System)-China model. The ecosystem carbon sinks in five representative years of 2012, 2017, 2019, 2030, and 2060 were predicted by reviewing related literature to calculate China’s net carbon emission accounts in these five key years and to quantitatively analyze the path to achieving carbon neutrality in China. The results show that China’s annual carbon emissions will peak in 2028, with a peak of 10.27 billion tons of carbon dioxide; that they will then decrease year by year to 7227 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2060; and that the ecosystem carbon sinks generated by land use are more stable, with a total of approximately 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. To achieve carbon neutrality, a dependence only on ecosystem carbon sinks is insufficient. National energy conservation, voluntary emission reduction by enterprises, and a reliance on new energy and new technologies are needed to ensure the final implementation of China’s carbon neutrality strategy.

Scenario Analysis of a Coal Reduction Share in the Power Generation in Bosnia and Herzegovina until 2050

This paper is effectively a scenario analysis of the energy system of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) from the perspective of the possible future reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the power generation sector, with the aim to become climate neutral by 2050, in compliance with the Green Agenda for the Western Balkan. According to the data from 2016, the share of power generation in the total GHG emissions in BiH was approximately 50%. By using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) energy model, two scenarios—the “gradual transition scenario” and the “climate neutral” scenario—have been analyzed for the period 2018–2050, and each scenario included decarbonization measures such as the extensive use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Unlike the climate neutral scenario, the gradual transition scenario includes the replacement of certain parts of the old, currently-in-operation Coal-fired Power Plants (CFPPs) with the new CFPP, which is more efficient. In the climate-neutral scenario, that part of the existing CFPPs is replaced by a mix of RESs. The results from the first scenario suggest that the share of CFPPs in electricity generation has gradually decreased from 69.3% to 16.3% in 2050, and CO2 emissions from the power generation sector in 2050 will be 2.2 million tons—roughly 83.5% less than in 2014. According to the second scenario, the emphasis is strongly on the growth and promotion of RESs, which have significantly taken over the roles of major producers of electricity, encouraging the low-carbon development of BiH. Analysis results show that, in 2050, there will be no CO2 emissions from power generation. It can be concluded that specifically designed energy models for the optimization of capacities and CO2 emissions through convergence towards RESs could be an optimistic and promising option for BiH to become climate neutral while meeting increasing energy demands. The results show the required RES capacities needed for achieving climate-neutral power generation by 2050, with the current rate level of power generation. Based on the results, RES investment needs can be estimated. Overall, the results of the scenarios can be used for the strategic planning of the power generation sector in BiH until 2050.

Supply-demand bilateral energy structure optimization and carbon emission reduction in Shandong rural areas based on long-range energy alternatives planning model

To solve the problem of large carbon emissions in rural area, this paper conducts field research in rural areas of Shandong and embarks on supply-demand bilateral energy structure optimization which combines local resource endowments, the latest rural energy application technologies and energy consumption preference. The study uses long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model to analyze the trend of energy consumption and CO2 emission from 2020 to 2050 under four different scenarios. The results of Tanzhuang show that residents in rural areas still rely on traditional biomass for energy consumption, especially for winter heating. Energy structure optimization has a significant impact on energy saving and emission reduction. Energy consumption and generation are projected steadily up to 2050 under all scenarios while the carbon emissions show a downward trend with a rapid decline from 2021 to 2030 and a relatively stable state for the next 20 years. Combining policy advancement and marginal carbon abatement cost (MACC) of different energy technologies, energy structure optimization-low cost (ESO-LOW) scenario shows a higher emission reduction benefits than the others. Six other villages in Shandong are analyzed in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of supply-demand bilateral energy structure optimization, sensitivity results show that the optimization is significant to the carbon neutrality target and carbon emission reduction.

Economic and environmental analysis of green transport penetration in Pakistan

The transport sector is going through a transition from a traditional to a sustainable system. Advanced countries have evaluated the costs and benefits of such transition, however, developing countries like Pakistan have rarely looked into evaluating such transition rigorously. This paper uses the transport sector of Pakistan as a case study and provides an economic evaluation of different scenarios for sustainable transportation in the region. The study has used the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) framework to evaluate the environmental and social costs of three scenarios, Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Efficient Combustion Scenario (ECS), and Hybrid Vehicle Scenario (HVS). It concluded that by 2040, the HVS and ECS will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 303.7 and 213.3 million metric tons respectively compared to BAUS. These savings in terms of social cost will be US$ 10.1 billion in HVS and US$ 7.2 billion in ECS as compared to BAUS. By the year 2040, oil demand in the transportation system will also be possible to contain at the 2026 level. This research is anticipated to help discover the best policy decisions for increasing the share of green fuels in the transport sector of Pakistan.

Analysis of energy-saving and environmental benefits from power structure adjustment in China: A comparative study from 2020 to 2060

The power industry plays a major role in achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality. China needs a power industry with deep decarbonization and high energy efficiency in the next 40 years. The adjustment of electric power structure mainly contains two parts: (1) The transition of thermal power generation to renewable energy power generation. (2) The transition of low-parameter thermal power generating to high-parameter thermal power generating. Here this paper predicted the total power-generating capacity in the future 40 years using multivariable linear regression and LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) methods. Afterwards, based on baseline and policy-driven (China's energy and electric power development plan in 2030 and prospect in 2060) scenarios, this study projected the proportions of different power generation technologies/different parameters of thermal power plants using Origin and historical data. This research also used LCI (life cycle inventory) to obtain energy-saving and environmental benefits in the transitions of thermal energy to renewable energy power generation/low-parameter to high-parameter thermal power generating. Results showed that in policy-driven scenario, wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach 36.5% and 36.9% of total power generation respectively by 2060. Moreover, renewable and new energy power generation will save 5780 million tons standard coal and 14,512 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2060. Super thermal power generation, however, was predicted to expand 1690 billion kWh from 2017 to 2050 for its large environmental benefits but phase out gradually from 2050 to 2060 to achieve Chinese government's “carbon neutrality” goal.

CO2 Emissions Forecast and Emissions Peak Analysis in Shanxi Province, China: An Application of the LEAP Model

Shanxi Province, an important source of coal resources in China, has consumed a large amount of fossil fuels in the past few decades. The CO2 emissions of Shanxi Province have been increasing annually, reaching 541.8 million tons in 2018, 54.6% higher than the national mean. This will have a negative impact on China’s ability to meet its target of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030. To assist China to achieve this target and reduce CO2 emissions in Shanxi Province, this study used the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to analyze the CO2 emissions and peaks in Shanxi Province from 2019 to 2035 under different scenarios. Furthermore, this study analyzed the time to peak CO2 emissions under different emission reduction measures through a sensitivity analysis. The results show that in the absence of other mitigation policy interventions, CO2 emissions in Shanxi Province will increase annually, reaching 1646.2 million tons by 2035. Furthermore, this study shows that if shares of industrial gross domestic product (GDP) in Shanxi, energy intensity reduction in the industrial and transport sectors compared to the base scenario, thermal power, and relative clean energy consumption reach 25%, 30%, 50%, and 50%, respectively, by 2035, then CO2 emissions of Shanxi would peak at 801.2 million tons in 2029 and GDP per capita would increase to USD 2000 by 2035. Finally, according to the results of this study, we have made some recommendations for emission reduction in Shanxi Province. The limitation of this study was that the implementation cost of the abatement policy was not considered.

Energy Planning in West Java using Software LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning)

The increase in global energy consumption is increasing every year. The increasing need for energy also in fact collides with the human need to create a clean and pollution-free environment. This condition requires us to look for alternative and renewable energy sources to support our daily lives. With the preparation of the General Provincial Energy Plan (GPEP) in the future, it is expected to strengthen the competitiveness of the West Java economy, fulfill basic needs in the energy sector and strengthen the sustainability of West Java development based on the environment and local wisdom. Preparation of the West Java Regional Energy General Plan (REGP). Data processing to predict the level of planning for electrical energy needs in West Java is processed using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) software. Demand is calculated based on the amount of electrical energy consumption activity and the amount of electrical energy consumption per activity (energy intensity). The year 2019 is the base year for the calculation. The results obtained from the prediction of electrical energy demand in 2019-2030 show a positive trend, namely an increase from 111.7 million Giga Joules to 147.9 million Giga Joules. The energy transformation in the fuel output of each power plant in West Java for the baseline scenario, in 2030 will reach 95.3 million Giga Joules. Meanwhile, energy generation in the Demand Side Management (DSM) scenario in 2019 is 6 (Thousand MW), with a capacity of 3,600 MW. Then there is an increase every year, until in 2030 it will reach 26.6 (Thousand MW), with a capacity of 5,800 MW. From this paper, the procedures and data results from calculations using the LEAP tool are expected to provide an overview and input for readers in making policy in the energy sector in particular and regional development planning in general.