Liverpool Model Research Articles

The Brexit Controversy; what light does evidence shed?

▀ There has been widespread misinformation in and outside Parliament about the economic case for Brexit. Outside Parliament, the rival groups – those with a negative assessment of Brexit and those with a positive one – have set out their arguments but these have huge differences in the factual and intellectual support they each bring to the debate. The group predicting a negative effect have published a wide set of empirical appraisals from academic and related research teams of the case for leaving and that against it. This, largely rigorous statistical analysis, finds strong and clear evidence of the large costs to leaving. The camp predicting a positive result for Brexit, in contrast, relies on one academic source for its case; the Cardiff University Macroeconomic Institute led by Patrick Minford. This has reported its predictions of the effects of Brexit which in contrast to the other camp, show large positive effects to growth and other key parts of the UK economy. ▀ We assess the empirical quality of these two cases and conclude that the economic modelling of the Cardiff group is insufficient for them to give an adequate empirical estimate of the costs and benefits of Brexit; the Liverpool model it uses has a sparse overseas sector and does not differentiate between EU and non‐EU trade for example, so is unsuited to analyse the effects of changes in these. Our verdict is that, based on the evidence, Brexit in almost any form would be damaging to the UK.1

How salient is thenurse~squaremerger?

This article reports the results of an experimental investigation into listeners' evaluative reactions towards thenurse~squaremerger in the north-west of England, in an attempt to shed light on its salience. Although speakers across England's north-west have anurse~squaremerger, its realisation differs: in Liverpool, speakers typically merge to a mid front [ɛː], while speakers from St Helens, just 20km further east, merge to a mid central [ɜː]. To test listeners' responses to each variant, we presented two groups of listeners from each of these localities with read sentence data from a single speaker. The speaker was from the north-west of England and had a centralisednurse~squarevowel in his native accent (representing the St Helens model). To achieve a matched-guise, the originalnurse~squarevowels were acoustically manipulated to give the impression of fronting (representing the Liverpool model). Listeners from Liverpool and St Helens were asked to react to guises along the status dimension, and their reaction was measured in real-time using bespoke audience response software administered via the web. The novelty in this approach is that it can be used not only to show that listeners do indeed react to the guises, but also to examine preciselywhenthis reaction takes place. Our results show that (a) overall, speakers with anurse~squaremerger are not rated highly on the status dimension, regardless of whether they have a merger to a front or central vowel; (b) listeners' real-time reactions can be correlated with instances ofnurseandsquare; and (c) listeners' responses tonursecan be different from responses tosquare.We discuss these results in relation to the salience of this merger in particular and to salience in general. We suggest that the salience ofnurseandsquareis related to the local social context and the micro-linguistic context in which they appear.

The ‘Liverpool model(s)’: cultural planning, Liverpool and Capital of Culture 2008

Within the UK, the ‘Liverpool model’ is being celebrated as the new template for Capital of Culture festivals, and culture led urban regeneration in general. This paper will question this celebration and argue that there are, in fact, two ‘Liverpool models’: the first, outlined in its bid and developed within its initial planning strategy, represented the apogee of a New Labour informed ‘cultural planning’ framework for urban development; the second, developed post-2008 within the impact analysis Impacts08, is a more sober and realistic reflection of the role of culture in urban regeneration. This paper will demonstrate how this first model, while politically expedient and rhetorically seductive, was both theoretically unstable and practically unrealizable. Its subsequent abandonment represents an indictment of cultural planning as a nostrum for the complex structural, social and economic problems of the post-industrial city.

The “scouse wedding” and other myths: reflections on the evolution of a “Liverpool model” for culture-led urban regeneration

This paper considers the development of a “Liverpool model” for culture-led urban regeneration, based on an analysis of the competition to become the UK's first City of Culture (UKCC) for 2013. The paper outlines New Labour's developing approach to culture-led regeneration, placing the UKCC in the context of the use of culture for various local development policies, particularly city branding and urban regeneration (Evans & Shaw, 2004; McGuigan, 2005). Within this context, the paper considers how Liverpool's year as European Capital of Culture (ECoC) 2008 has been narrated by New Labour and the manner in which this narrative has influenced the development of the UKCC programme (Department for Culture, Media and Sport [DCMS], 2009; Garcia, Melville & Cox, 2010). The paper demonstrates how this narrative overlooks the ultimate specificity of Liverpool's success (Liverpool Culture Company, 2009; Garcia et al., 2010), which suggests a unique combination of political circumstance, cultural leadership and public and private investment are at the root of the perceived success of Liverpool's ECoC 2008, rather than an exportable, replicable policy (O'Brien & Miles, 2010) described by the policy literature, and substantiated by the competition to select the UKCC 2013 (DCMS, 2009). The paper's conclusion problematises the prospect of another city repeating the Liverpool experience. The “Liverpool model” of culture-led regeneration is shown as one which limits prospective cultural policies to a narrow vision of the possible, a vision which is unlikely to be sustainable in the foreseeable future.

Comparison of different models of non‐local impact ionization for low noise avalanche photodiodes

AbstractThe dead space model of non‐local impact ionization has been developed independently by three different research groups in order to include a ‘soft’ dead space. This paper seeks to compare these models for the first time. The models are fitted to Monte Carlo simulation data (both non‐local ionization coefficients and the ionization pathlength pdf) and it is found that there are no significant differences between the models except that the Liverpool model cannot be used to fit one data set which has a very soft dead space. Likewise the models give very similar results when used to calculate the excess noise factor for low noise avalanche photodiodes. (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

What are the Right Models and Policies for a World of Low Inflation?

Monetary policy should be guided by macroeconomic models with limited nominal rigidity; ‘New Classical’ or even for some issues just plain Classical (i.e. with no nominal rigidity at all) models are perfectly adequate for understanding various aspects of the economy that have previously led economists to believe in a high degree of nominal rigidity. On UK data these models account for the facts of inflation persistence and exchange rate ‘overshooting’; their impulse responses are in line with the data; and a typical example, the Liverpool Model, is marginally accepted in its entirety by the data since 1979. Such models suggest that no increased macro instability would result from taking the rigours of monetary policy one stage further from inflation targeting and ensuring that the price level itself is returned to its long-run preset target path — so that the value of money over long periods of time would be utterly predictable.

Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML—some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits

We set out an algorithm, based on a guided grid search procedure, for estimating large rational expectations models by FIML. Confidence limits are established by bootstrapping. We give results for a small four-equation version of the Liverpool Model of the UK and for the full Model; these suggest that there is also some bias to be adjusted for. The required bootstrap number for the small model is less than 200 for convergence of the estimates. Also should there be unit roots in the errors, these have the interpretation, given a fully specified theoretical structure, of omitted variables; in a Montecarlo study of the small model when its errors are unit roots it is found that the main parameter estimates are rather robust, with the error processes capturing these roots.

The use of in situ models and QLF for the study of coronal caries

The purpose of the paper is to review aspects of the systems available to model the caries process in enamel. The in situ model developed in Liverpool, and the new method of quantifying mineral loss, Quantitative Light-induced Fluorescence (QLF), are described. QLF is a powerful new diagnostic tool which can be used to measure demineralisation and remineralisation in tooth surfaces in vivo; studies to optimise, validate and use QLF in different clinical situations are described. Examples of the use of in situ models show that they are particularly valuable for monitoring de and remineralisation of artificial lesions in relation to product testing as alternatives to clinical trials, and present significant advances over in vitro methods. Quantification of mineral loss by Transverse Microradiography (TMR) as in the traditional Liverpool model has produced much valuable information, but the destructive nature of the method limits experimental design, and removes the system from the clinical situation. As a possible alternative, QLF has been validated and optimised. Longitudinal measures can be made on the same surface, and examples of its use are for monitoring recurrent caries and demineralisation around orthodontic brackets. While current in situ models provide a major advance over earlier caries models, measurement of de and remineralisation by destructive methods such as transverse microradiography limits the design of experimental investigations. QLF offers significant time saving, reduces the cost of clinical studies, and because the measurements can be carried out longitudinally in vivo, can remove the need for intra-oral appliances carrying experimental tissues.

Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability

Stochastic simulations are used on the Liverpool Model of the UK to assess the effect of UK euro entry on macroeconomic stability. Instability increases substantially, particularly for inflation and real interest rates. A key factor is the extent of the euro's instability against the dollar; by adopting a regional currency the UK imports this source of shocks, as well as losing its control of interest rates. The results are not highly sensitive to changes in assumptions about the degree of labour market flexibility, the use of fiscal policy, and increased convergence of monetary transmission.

Quarterly liverpool model with current partial information: An exercise in forecasting

AbstractThis paper applies an algorithm for the solution of partial current information in rational expectation models to the quarterly Liverpool macroeconomic model of the U.K. The algorithm is shown to produce marginally superior results in forecasts both in ex‐post and ex‐ante forecasts and can be viewed as an additional tool for the forecaster's kit‐bag.

The Effects of American Policies - a new classical interpretaton

SUMMARY Patrick Minford argues that the major short‐run cause of disturbance in the world economy in the 1980s has been US macro‐economic policy. He suggests that the elimination of this source of distortion and instability from the world economy by reducing US budget deficits, coupled with other reforms to elimate market inefficiency, particularly labour market distortions, will provide the best hope for the regeneration of long‐run growth through the market mechanism. In line with the New Classical economics, he concludes that government attempts to reduce unemployment through reflation will be selfdefeating. RESUMEN Los efectos de las politicas de los Estados Unidos, una interpretacion neoclasica El autor argumenta que en el corto plazo, la causa mas importante de las perturbaciones ocurridas en la economia mundial en la decada de 1980, ha sido la politica macroeconomica de Estados Unidos. Sugiere que la eliminacion de esta fuente de distorsion e inestabilidad sobre la economia mundial, mediante la reduccion del deficit presupuestario de Estados Unidos junto con otras reformas para eliminar las ineficiencias del mercado, especialmente las distorsiones del mercado del trabajo, proporcionaran la mejor posibilidad para la regeneracion del crecimiento en el largo plazo atraves de los mecanismos del mercado. De acuerdo con la economia neoclasica, concluye que cualquier intento gubernamental para reducir el desempleo mediante reflacion sera auto‐derrotado. RESUME Les consequences de la politique americaine — une interpretation de l'ecole ‘New Classical’ Patrick Minford soutient que la cause principale a court‐terme de troubles dans l'economie mondiale des annees '80 a ete la politique macro‐economique des Etats Unis. Il suggere que l'elimination de cette source de distortion et d'instabilite de l'economie mondiale par la reduction du deficit budgetaire, de pair avec d'autres reformes pour eliminer l'inefficacite du marche, en particulier les distortions du marche du travail, fourniront le meilleur espoir pour la regeneration de la croissance a long terme par l'intermediaire du mecanisme du marche. Du meme avis que les etudes economiques de l'ecole ‘New Classical’ il conclut que les essais du gouvernement pour reduire le chomage par l'intermediaire d'une nouvelle inflation ne meneront a rien.

Behaviour of the Liverpool model with weight given to alternative public forecasts

From an a priori consideration of the marginal costs and benefits, public forecasts appear to be strong candidates to condition the expectation of agents. Our purpose is to examine the implications for the forecasting and simulation properties of the Liverpool macroeconomic model if expectations in the behavioural equations of the model are replaced by a simple average of the Liverpool and Cambridge Economic Policy Groups forecasts. The exercise produces large differences in the forecasts and simulations of the Liverpool model.

The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom

The paper describes the Liverpool Model, a rational expectations model of the UK economy used for forecasting since March 1980. The model is of the ‘new classical’ type, in that all markets clear; in the labour market, there is a union sector with one-year nominal wage contracts but the non-union sector clears excess demands. Equilibrium (or ‘natural rate’) values of output, employment, real wages, etc are endogenously determined. In- and out-of-sample errors, a full set of simulations, and a complete listing are included. The interim experience of the model as a test bed for rational expectations methods is ‘far from discouraging’.

Comparison of NIESR and Liverpool Model Errors: A Note

In the Review of February 1981 the NIESR Model (hereafter NM) errors for 1972-80 for GDP and inflation were juxtaposed with the Liverpool Model (hereafter LM) errors reported in Minford (1980a) and other references. It was stated that this was a ‘direct comparison’. It was also stated that my comparison of the LM errors with the actual forecast errors made by NIESR ‘was not a proper one’. The object of this note is (a) to deny the first statement and (b) with respect to the second, clarify the sense in which my comparison (Minford 1980a) was indeed proper.