Law Enforcement Sectors Research Articles

Knowledge sharing enablers, processes and firm innovation capability

Purpose This paper aims to examine a research model that links knowledge sharing enablers, processes and outcome dimensions in law enforcement in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It attempts to examine the impact of knowledge self-efficacy and top management support on knowledge donating and collecting. It also attempts to examine the effect of these two aspects of knowledge sharing on firm innovation capability. Design/methodology/approach This study used a quantitative approach, with data collected by questionnaire from 685 police officers in a law enforcement agency in the UAE. Findings Knowledge self-efficacy and top management support have a positive impact on knowledge donating and collecting. Only knowledge collecting, however, had a positive effect on firm innovation capability. Research limitations/implications The study has significant academic and practical implications. It supports a previous research model that links enablers, processes and outcomes of knowledge sharing, and confirms them in the context of law enforcement in the UAE. It could also help law enforcement agencies to promote a knowledge sharing culture to support innovation in the UAE. Originality/value The research model is likely to be particularly valuable in knowledge-intensive organizations such as the law enforcement sector. Knowledge sharing is often overlooked by organizations in the UAE because there has to date been little research in this field.

Illuminating a New Domain: The Role and Nature of Military Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance in Cyberspace

Created in 2009 to “[synchronize] warfighting effects across the global security environment as well as providing support to civil authorities and international partners” the United States Cyber Command has spent the intervening years developing a foundation of cyber military doctrine, harnessing and integrating extant forces, and developing the critical mass needed to execute its global mission.Key among the challenges faced by the still fledgling US Cyber Command is the task of effecting intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) in a domain where real-time cognizance is the lifeblood of needed agility while observable distinctions between ISR, preparation for attack, and offensive cyber operations are small and, in many cases, dependent more on context than on objective discriminants.This paper will make the case that real-time ISR in cyber space is an essential and achievable foundation for success in military operations in or dependent on cyberspace. The paper will focus on military vice law enforcement or private sector operations, and will summarize the characteristics of the cyber domain, the attributes needed for success in dynamic and time sensitive operations, and recommend both doctrine and strategy for further development along these lines.The paper assumes that issues of when and where to employ US Cyber Command resources will be resolved in a manner that leaves the current US Cyber Command roles and responsibilities largely intact. None of what follows is intended to suggest US Cyber Command attain authorities it does not currently enjoy under extant law, policy, and tasking. In a similar vein, the paper does not directly consider the organizational structure of operating cyber forces and their support elements though, in the spirit of ‘form follows function’, insights on which structures are best suited to accomplish organizational objectives may be derived from conclusions contained herein.Note: This paper was prepared for a workshop on the strategic use of offensive cyber operations held in March 2016 and organized by the Stanford Cyber Policy Program. On August 18, 2016, this paper was submitted to the Journal of Cybersecurity for entry into its review process and perhaps for publication.

Suicide surveillance and health systems in Nepal: a qualitative and social network analysis.

BackgroundDespite increasing recognition of the high burden of suicide deaths in low- and middle-income countries, there is wide variability in the type and quality of data collected and reported for suspected suicide deaths. Suicide data are filtered through reporting systems shaped by social, cultural, legal, and medical institutions. Lack of systematic reporting may underestimate public health needs or contribute to misallocation of resources to groups most at risk.MethodsThe goal of this study was to explore how institutional structures, cultural perspectives on suicide, and perceived criminality of self-harm influence the type and quality of suicide statistics, using Nepal as an example because of its purported high rate of suicide in the public health literature. Official documentation and reporting networks drawn by police, policy makers, and health officials were analyzed. Thirty-six stakeholders involved in various levels of the death reporting systems in Nepal participated in in-depth interviews and an innovative drawn surveillance system elicitation task.ResultsContent analysis and social network analysis revealed large variation across the participants perceived networks, where some networks were linear pathways dominated by a single institution (police or community) with few nodes involved in data transmission, while others were complex and communicative. Network analysis demonstrated that police institutions controlled the majority of suicide information collection and reporting, whereas health and community institutions were only peripherally involved. Both health workers and policy makers reported that legal codes criminalizing suicide impaired documentation, reporting, and care provision. However, legal professionals and law review revealed that attempting suicide is not a crime punishable by incarceration. Another limitation of current reporting was the lack of attention to male suicide.ConclusionsEstablishment and implementation of national suicide prevention strategies will not be possible without reliable statistics and comprehensive standardized reporting practices. The case of Nepal points to the need for collaborative reporting and accountability shared between law enforcement, administrative, and health sectors. Awareness of legal codes among health workers, in particular dispelling myths of suicide’s illegality, is crucial to improve mental health services and reporting practices.

The Law Enforcement Systems of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Kingdom of Sweden: A Comparative Analysis of Legal Framework and Management Structure

This thesis identifies the primary reasons for the systematic failure of law enforcement of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) to satisfy the public need for security and safety. The results follow from examining the legal acts governing law enforcement, and by comparing the RK system and its transition trends to the extant law enforcement system implemented in Sweden. The Comparison is justified by the fact that both countries are distinguished by similar organizational reform preconditions as well as related reform patterns and core structural elements. The legal acts governing law enforcement reforms in Kazakhstan, as opposed to the substantive criminal law, comprise mainly of a sequence of poorly organized and short-sighted governmental decrees that fail to take into account the preconditions for effective and efficient law enforcement: namely, principles of organizational management, science based staffing, and efficient use of available resources. The thicket of legal acts governing law enforcement in Kazakhstan also reveal an absence of democratic procedures to appoint the head law enforcement authority, the Minister of Internal Affairs, and to provide transparency in formulating criteria to appoint other key governmental personnel, and police officers. These problems stem from the single party system in Kazakhstan whereby the judiciary and legislative branches of government are virtually wholly dependent upon the executive branch. This paper also looks into the larger institutional and legislative context of the law enforcement sector in Sweden that enables it to separate the judicial and executive powers. The essential findings of this thesis indicate that law enforcement in Kazakhstan is likely to fail to achieve its objectives until legal reform supports: long-term structural reforms that support consequential and coherent implementation of the reform directives with built-in feedback loops (reflective planning), introduction of science based staff limits and accountability principles, introduction of clear reporting lines and reasonable delegation based on complexity of work and creation of the requisite organization. Legal analysis of the criminal law of Kazakhstan has not revealed any fundamental defect to attribute the failure of the law enforcement system to shortcomings in substantive criminal law legislation. The Swedish law enforcement system, recently re-organized, may serve as a template to introduce legal and structural reforms in Kazakhstan, with suitable adjustments to institutional interdependencies. Research findings indicated that Sweden had vice-versa transformed to a more centrally aligned power allocation model with clear lineal- functional organizational principle.

Attitudes Toward Sexual Violence Survivors: Differences Across Professional Sectors in Kenya and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Sexual violence survivors who decide to report their assault interact with health care, law enforcement, and legal and judicial professionals. Professionals' attitudes about sexual violence and survivors play an important role in caring for survivors and in the pursuit of justice. Despite evidence showing the relationship between service provider beliefs and survivor outcomes, relatively little is known about professionals' beliefs about sexual violence or their attitudes toward sexual violence survivors. Between June 2012 and December 2014, our study examined the beliefs and attitudes of 181 professionals from the health care, legal, and law enforcement sectors in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Rift Valley region of Kenya, areas with a high prevalence of sexual violence. To determine correlates of beliefs and attitudes about sexual violence and sexual violence survivors, multiple logistic regression models were adjusted for demographic and occupational characteristics. Respondents who agreed that survivors got what they deserved (7%) or that survivors should feel ashamed (9%) were the minority, while those who would be willing to care for a family member with a history of sexual violence (94%) were the majority. Profession was significantly associated with beliefs and attitudes about sexual violence and survivors. Law enforcement professionals were more likely than health professionals and lawyers to indicate that survivors should feel ashamed. Our findings suggest a need for interventions that adequately address potentially harmful beliefs and attitudes of some professionals serving sexual violence survivors.

Monitoring migrants or making migrants ‘misfit’? Data protection and human rights perspectives on Dutch identity management practices regarding migrants

Record numbers of migrants and refugees fleeing violence and poverty in parts of Africa and the Middle East present the European Union with unprecedented challenges, including in determining their identity as well as status. In recent years problems of identifying immigrants have been addressed in order to fight identity fraud and illegal entry of migrants. As a result, a wide variety of digital systems have been introduced to orchestrate an effective, preventative modus of identification of migrants. Digital systems are in particular geared towards spotting those migrants who (are about to) commit identity fraud or who enter the territory of EU member states illegally. Although the key aim of the digital systems is framed to protect the administrative, geographic and legal borders of the member state and the safety of its population, empirically based studies demonstrate that these systems bring new risks for migrants themselves. This article intends to contribute to the discussion on the use of digital systems for managing the movement of migrants by analysing identification and risk assessment systems from the perspective of the new European data protection regime and the European Convention on Human Rights. For this purpose, two identification systems – the so-called INS console within the Dutch immigration and border sector, and the PROGIS console within the law enforcement sector – are analysed. A third is the Advanced Passenger Information system operated at Schiphol Airport by border control and immigration services. Against the background of the position of many migrants finding themselves at risk in their home country and of the two legislative frameworks mentioned above, this article addresses two issues. First, the analysis focuses on how migrants are perceived by digital monitoring practices: are they themselves at risk, non-risk or do they pose a risk? In the EU, migrants must prove that their case is worthy of asylum status because they are ‘at risk’ from political unrest or other life-threatening circumstances in their home country. Yet, empirical data gathered through semi-structured interviews show that simply abiding by the standards during an enrolment process of the INS console, rather than being ‘at risk’, a migrant can easily be categorised as ‘posing a risk’ (La Fors-Owczynik & Van der Ploeg, 2015). Second, this article aims to investigate what the capacity of the new data protection regime is in protecting migrants from being framed as ‘a risk’ or a ‘misfit’ stemming from the use of digital systems. Given this second aim, the following discussion also intends to explore the extent to which the European Convention on Human Rights can provide an additional legal remedy for migrants being digitally categorised in a manner that is detrimental to them.

Addressing the crime reduction and harm reduction divide - promoting opioid agonist therapy in the US drug courts

The reduction of harm due to illicit drug use is a common goal of law enforcement and public health sectors. However, law enforcement and public health policies to achieve this goal are often at odds. The burgeoning drug court model in the U.S. provides a unique opportunity to blend law enforcement and treatment approaches to intervene at the drugs-crime nexus. In the U.S., however, vocal resistance to modalities thought of as “harm reduction,” and an emphasis upon supply reduction over demand reduction may hinder realization of the full potential for the drug court treatment model. To illustrate the current socio-political environment in the U.S., this paper begins by examining contributions to the reduction of drug-related harms by the law enforcement and healthcare sectors. Through the example of opioid substitution for opioid use disorders, we then posit a framework under which these often disparate entities may engage in cooperative policies to reduce the individual and societal harms caused by illicit drug use.

MEMBANGUN BUDAYA HUKUM PANCASILA SEBAGAI BAGIAN DARI SISTEM HUKUM NASIONAL INDONESIA DI ABAD 21

This article discusses the weaknesses of Indonesian (internal) legal culture. The author argues that this weakness points to the attitudes, behavior, and beliefs about the proper place of law in daily life as entertained by individuals working in the government, law making institutions as well as those working in the law enforcement sector. Moreover, this internal weakness in Indonesian legal culture, poses a threat to the unity of Indonesia as a nation. One solution offered is to return to and revive the State ideology and philosophy, Pancasila, as the basis to develop a more viable and healthy Indonesian legal culture.

MEMBANGUN BUDAYA HUKUM PANCASILA SEBAGAI BAGIAN DARI SISTEM HUKUM NASIONAL INDONESIA DI ABAD 21

This article discusses the weaknesses of Indonesian (internal) legal culture. The author argues that this weakness points to the attitudes, behavior, and beliefs about the proper place of law in daily life as entertained by individuals working in the government, law making institutions as well as those working in the law enforcement sector. Moreover, this internal weakness in Indonesian legal culture, poses a threat to the unity of Indonesia as a nation. One solution offered is to return to and revive the State ideology and philosophy, Pancasila, as the basis to develop a more viable and healthy Indonesian legal culture.

Institutional stakeholder perceptions of barriers to addiction treatment under Mexico's drug policy reform

ABSTRACTMexico has experienced disproportionate drug-related harms given its role as a production and transit zone for illegal drugs destined primarily for the USA. In response, in 2009, the Mexican federal government passed legislation mandating pre-arrest diversion of drug-dependent individuals towards addiction treatment. However, this federal law was not specific about how the scale-up of the addiction treatment sector was to be operationalised. We therefore conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with key ‘interactors’ in fields affected by the federal legislation, including participants from the law enforcement, public health, addiction treatment, and governmental administration sectors. Among 19 participants from the municipal, state and federal levels were interviewed and multiple barriers to policy reform were identified. First, there is a lack of institutional expertise to implement the reform. Second, the operationalisation of the reform was not accompanied by a coordinated action plan. Third, the law is an unfunded mandate. Institutional barriers are likely hampering the implementation of Mexico's policy reform. Addressing the concerns expressed by interactors through the scale-up of services, the provision of increased training and education programmes for stakeholders and a coordinated action plan to operationalise the policy reform are likely needed to improve the policy reform process.

Improved lexicon-based sentiment analysis for social media analytics

Social media channels, such as Facebook or Twitter, allow for people to express their views and opinions about any public topics. Public sentiment related to future events, such as demonstrations or parades, indicate public attitude and therefore may be applied while trying to estimate the level of disruption and disorder during such events. Consequently, sentiment analysis of social media content may be of interest for different organisations, especially in security and law enforcement sectors. This paper presents a new lexicon-based sentiment analysis algorithm that has been designed with the main focus on real time Twitter content analysis. The algorithm consists of two key components, namely sentiment normalisation and evidence-based combination function, which have been used in order to estimate the intensity of the sentiment rather than positive/negative label and to support the mixed sentiment classification process. Finally, we illustrate a case study examining the relation between negative sentiment of twitter posts related to English Defence League and the level of disorder during the organisation’s related events.

Surveillance cultures, chains and holes in street level networking: dealing with drug users in Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Porto Alegre (Brazil)

If surveillance is understood as a complex multi-dimensional process, then collaboration between health, social and law enforcement sectors can be viewed as a part of the surveillance culture of particular societies and urban settings. Policies towards illicit drugs usually build on a two-track approach—public health and public order—with different objectives that have to be negotiated daily by street level workers in the light of their differing beliefs on drug use. This paper brings examples of collaboration and non-collaboration among workers from social, health and law enforcement agencies in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and Porto Alegre, Brazil in their daily interactions with drug users, to analyze the types of surveillance arising from these negotiations. The study utilizes results from 80 in-depth interviews with street level workers and 800 hours of participant observation carried out from February 2010 until March 2011, equally divided between the two cities. Different cultures of surveillance produce diverse state-citizen approaches in terms of coercion, care, and rights. In Amsterdam, close collaboration and information exchange among workers produce a ‘chain’ surveillance culture: an intensive screening allows drug users to have more access to care, yet, at the same time this can produce excessive control over users’ lives. In Porto Alegre, by contrast, insufficient collaboration produces a surveillance culture of ‘holes’: less systematic screening and lack of information sharing allows users to slip out of care, and of workers’ surveillance sight. Historically, though coming from apparently opposite extremes in terms of drug surveillance (respectively permissive and controlling), both Amsterdam and Porto Alegre in practice show surveillance cultures which combine care and order. Combinations, however, vary according to different assemblages between actors concerned with transforming drug users’ lives.

Money laundering using investment companies

Purpose – This paper aims to start with the assumption that money laundering through the use of investments will continue to occur and will become increasingly more complex to try and avoid detection. The paper aims to explore some of the theoretical factors that would need to be considered in any risk based framework and also to consider how an empirical model can try and prioritise the information and intelligence gathered through existing beneficial ownership and customer due diligence (CDD) systems. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses an empirical example of money laundering with investments and highlights the red flag indicators that led to its eventual discovery. The theoretical framework considers the difficulties of information overload and suggests that any empirical model of risk-based assessment would need to be able to discern between the various types of risk information gathered. The paper has developed one empirical model that could be used. Findings – The paper suggests a model that breaks down beneficial ownership and CDD information into three areas: beneficial ownership for all major players, transparency of transactions and accountability of companies involved. Practical implications – The paper has implications for the banking, regulatory and law enforcement sectors working in Anti-Money Laundering (AML). Originality/value – The paper analyses a particular type of money laundering activity which it terms “investment laundering” using an empirical case study. It then develops a new theoretical and empirical risk assessment model to illustrate how risk-based approaches need to be able to discern between the different types of information gathered and the application to overall risk.

Turning a Page in Drug Control and Public Health: Advancing HCV/HIV Prevention through Reform of Drug Law and Policy

ABSTRACT A major UN summit on the world drug problem in 2016 is an opportunity to rethink punitive drug policies that have not succeeded in stemming drug demand or supply and have undermined HIV and HCV responses in many countries. Experiences of some countries demonstrate that treating drug use and minor drug possession in the health rather than the law enforcement sector can dramatically improve access to HIV and HCV services. Alternatives to incarceration for minor drug infractions are particularly important in this regard. The voices of health professionals in national and international debates leading up to this important summit are crucial to making the case for public health-based and human rights-oriented drug policy reform.

Dirty money in Jamaica

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the current state and future pressures of money laundering on Jamaica and the financial crime connections between the UK and Jamaica. Design/methodology/approach – The paper focuses on the primary data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with members from the law enforcement and financial services sectors of Jamaica. The main objective of the interviews was to secure a range of opinions concerning the problem of money laundering in the country. Interviewees were selected from the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions, the Financial Investigation Division of the Ministry of Finance and Planning, the British High Commission and the Financial Services Commission. The names of all subjects shall remain anonymous to protect the privacy of those who were interviewed. Findings – Through the analysis of primary data it will be shown that Jamaica remains vulnerable to money laundering – particularly the proceeds of crime laundered through the remittance sector – despite a legislative overhaul in 2007 to adopt the UK’s Proceeds of Crime Act. Ineffective legislation is most certainly due to generic weaknesses and flaws which are applicable to many Caribbean states, for example, a lack of political will to enforce anti-money laundering regulations, corruption, inadequate police training, lack of resources, a strong remittance sector and geographical positioning along a drug-trafficking route. Originality/value – This paper is the first of its kind to comprehensively analyze the money laundering situation in Jamaica, using detailed first accounts from members of the law enforcement and financial sectors.

Incidence of Fatal Airway Obstruction in Police Officers Feloniously Killed in the Line of Duty: A 10-Year Retrospective Analysis

According to US military data, airway obstruction is the third leading cause of possibly preventable death in combat. In the absence of law enforcement-specific medical training, military experience has been translated to the law enforcement sector. The purpose of this study was to determine whether airway obstruction represents a significant cause of possibly preventable death in police officers, and whether current military combat lifesaver training programs might have prevented these fatalities. De-identified, open-source US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Uniform Crime Report Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted (LEOKA) data for the years 1998-2007 were reviewed. Cases were included if officers were on duty at the time of fatal injury and died within one hour from time of wounding from penetrating face or neck trauma. After case identification, letters requesting autopsy reports were sent to the departments of victim officers. Reports were abstracted into a Microsoft Excel database. During the study period, 42 of 533 victim officers met inclusion criteria. Departmental response rate was 85.7%. Autopsy reports were provided for 29 officers; 23 (54.8%) cases remained in the final analysis. All officers died from gunshot wounds. No coroner specifically identified airway obstruction as either a direct cause of death or contributing factor. Based upon autopsy findings, three of 341 officers possibly succumbed to airway trauma (0.9%; 95% CI, 0.0%-1.9%). Endotracheal intubation was the most common advanced airway management technique utilized during attempted resuscitation. The limited LEOKA data suggests that acute airway obstruction secondary to penetrating trauma appears to be a rare cause of possibly preventable death in police officers. Based upon the nature of airway trauma, nasopharyngeal airways would not be expected to be an effective lifesaving intervention. This study highlights the requirement for a comprehensive mortality and "near miss" database for law enforcement officers.

Pharmaceutical digital marketing and governance: illicit actors and challenges to global patient safety and public health.

BackgroundDigital forms of direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical marketing (eDTCA) have globalized in an era of free and open information exchange. Yet, the unregulated expansion of eDTCA has resulted in unaddressed global public health threats. Specifically, illicit online pharmacies are engaged in the sale of purportedly safe, legitimate product that may in fact be counterfeit or substandard. These cybercriminal actors exploit available eDTCA mediums over the Internet to market their suspect products globally. Despite these risks, a detailed assessment of the public health, patient safety, and cybersecurity threats and governance mechanisms to address them has not been conducted.DiscussionIllicit online pharmacies represent a significant global public health and patient safety risk. Existing governance mechanisms are insufficient and include lack of adequate adoption in national regulation, ineffective voluntary governance mechanisms, and uneven global law enforcement efforts that have allowed proliferation of these cybercriminals on the web. In order to effectively address this multistakeholder threat, inclusive global governance strategies that engage the information technology, law enforcement and public health sectors should be established.SummaryEffective global “eHealth Governance” focused on cybercrime is needed in order to effectively combat illicit online pharmacies. This includes building upon existing Internet governance structures and coordinating partnership between the UN Office of Drugs and Crime that leads the global fight against transnational organized crime and the Internet Governance Forum that is shaping the future of Internet governance. Through a UNODC-IGF governance mechanism, investigation, detection and coordination of activities against illicit online pharmacies and their misuse of eDTCA can commence.

‘Which side of the bridge to safety?’ How young Pacific Islanders in New Zealand view their South Auckland community

The community of South Auckland, an area that is home to the largest population of people with Pacific Island (Pasifika) heritage in New Zealand, has consistently faced scrutiny and criticism from the media, law enforcement, and other sectors of New Zealand for its reportedly increasing levels of violent gang activity and high rate of criminal offences associated with gangs and involving Pasifika youth. Within the community, however, young Pasifika people appear to have a positive opinion of their community and about particular features of gangs in their South Auckland community though they remain highly critical of the presence of gangs. This was revealed in a recent research study for the New Zealand Families Commission (Nakhid et al. 2009), which was carried out with South Auckland youth of Pasifika heritage between the ages of 12 and 28, including those who were involved in gangs and those who had never been involved in gangs.

Harm reduction and law enforcement in Vietnam: influences on street policing

Background and rationaleThe HIV epidemic in Vietnam has from its start been concentrated among injecting drug users. Vietnam instituted the 2006 HIV/AIDS Law which includes comprehensive harm reduction measures, but these are unevenly accepted and inadequately implemented. Ward police are a major determinant of risk for IDUs, required to participate in drug control practices (especially meeting quotas for detention centres) which impede support for harm reduction. We studied influences on ward level police regarding harm reduction in Hanoi to learn how to better target education and structural change.MethodsAfter document review, we interviewed informants from government, NGOs, INGOs, multilateral agencies, and police, using semi-structured guides. Topics covered included perceptions of harm reduction and the police role in drug law enforcement, and harm reduction training and advocacy among police.ResultsPolice perceive conflicting responsibilities, but overwhelmingly see their responsibility as enforcing drug laws, identifying and knowing drug users, and selecting those for compulsory detention. Harm reduction training was very patchy, ward police not being seen as important to it; and understanding of harm reduction was limited, tending to reflect drug control priorities. Justification for methadone was as much crime prevention as HIV prevention.Competing pressures on ward police create much anxiety, with performance measures based around drug control; recourse to detention resolves competing pressures more safely. There is much recognition of the importance of discretion, and much use of it to maintain good social order. Policy dissemination approaches within the law enforcement sector were inconsistent, with little communication about harm reduction programs or approaches, and an unfounded assumption that training at senior levels would naturally reach to the street.DiscussionWard police have not been systematically included in harm reduction advocacy or training strategies to support or operationalise legalised harm reduction interventions. The practices of street police challenge harm reduction policies, entirely understandably given the competing pressures on them. For harm reduction to be effective in Vietnam, it is essential that the ambiguities and contradictions between laws to control HIV and to control drugs be resolved for the street-level police.

Predictioneer´s Game: kolektívne násilie v Ekvádore

The paper analyses collective violence in Ecuador from the end of September 2010. The situation was characterized as a Coup d'état when violent clashes between hostile camps were identified. The president was attacked by rebellious units of state police that had protested against the planned cuts of benefits and salaries in the law enforcement sector. The society was threatened by local riots, temporary anarchy and violent clashes that led to the declaration of state of emergency by president Correa. On the basis of empirical data, the prediction model is designed according to the analytical tool "Predictioneer's Game" defined by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. The prediction is aimed at the forecast of the stability of regime in the context of the events from the 30th September 2010.