Largest Party Research Articles

Probabilities and seat gains of minor parties in the 2019 municipal legislative election in Surabaya City, Indonesia

This study examines the relationship between seat acquisition probabilities and the acquisition of minor party seats in the 2019 Surabaya City DPRD election. This research is crucial because theoretically the proportional representation electoral system quota/allocation of electoral district seats (dapil) has the probability to be accessed by all parties participating in the election, but in fact in the 2019 Surabaya City DPRD election the quota/allocation of seats was dominated by large parties. This research method is library research with the analysis technique using the Pearson Product Moment statistical test. According to the research results, first, the relationship between seat acquisition probability and minor party seat acquisition is negative and insignificant. The results of the research hypothesis test show rcount (-0.753) < rtable (0.997). Second, the relationship between these two variables controlled by the threshold variable is significantly positive. The research hypothesis test result is rcount (0.000) > rtable (0.997). Based on this research: (1) the electoral system of proportional representation quota/allocation of electoral district seats is not accessible to all minor parties participating in the election; (2) the size of electoral districts with seat quotas in the medium-large criteria does not have a significant positive effect on the acquisition of seats of parties participating in the election; (3) the threshold simultaneously affects the significant positive relationship between the size of the medium-large quota electoral districts and the acquisition of seats of parties participating in the election; and (4) the acquisition of party votes below the lower threshold still has the probability to get the remaining seats.

Taking Their Game to the Next Level: Why Members Support Party Digitalization

AbstractThe scholarship on party digitalization discusses why, how and with what consequences parties use digitalization. Such a detailed account of the supply side contrasts sharply with the limited information we have about the demand side. We know little about party members' support for digitalization. To address this gap in the literature, our article aims to explain what drives the support for digitalization within political parties. We use individual‐level data from an original survey conducted in March–April 2023 with 2,032 members of the second largest party in Romania. The statistical analysis tests the effects of two main categories of explanations: technology winners and reinforcement hypothesis. We find that those party members who are active and informed about party activities will support party digitalization. The results hold when controlling for technology experience and skills, length of membership, position in the party and age.

Competing narratives in the Swedish 1929 deposit insurance-debate

In early April 1929, eight Swedish savings banks were declared insolvent and closed due to economic crimes committed by some of their founders. After the crash, the Swedish parliament entered into a month-long debate over whether the state should cover some, all, or none of the losses of the 88,000 depositors of the failed banks. The two main parties, the Right Party, in government, and the Social Democrats, the largest party in parliament, developed competing narratives about the causes of the crash, the motives for state intervention, which depositors should be helped, and with how much public money. This paper provides the first account and analysis of this political debate, which ended with a decision for the state to provide an informal, partial, one-time deposit guarantee. The case is unique in Swedish banking history and demonstrates the importance of analysing policy makers’ narratives to understand state intervention in banking crises.

The gatekeeper’s dilemma: Political selection or team effort

Political parties play a crucial gatekeeping role in elections, including controlling electoral resources, candidate recruitment, and electoral list compositions. In making these strategic choices, parties aim to encourage candidates to invest in the campaign, while also trying to secure advantages for their preferred candidates. We study how parties navigate this trade-off using a specific feature of the Norwegian local electoral system in which parties can give advantaged positions to some candidates in an otherwise open list. Our theory reveals that parties’ ex-ante electoral strength impacts their strategic decisions. Notably, the trade-off is weaker for more popular parties, allowing them to facilitate the election of their preferred candidates without compromising the party’s overall performance. We show empirically that the moral hazard concern is real, and that larger parties are indeed more likely to use their power to make some candidates safe. The advantage of large parties extends further: safeguarding specific candidates enables parties to achieve disproportionately favorable outcomes in post-electoral bargaining. These findings reveal new insights for political representations, policy outcomes, and intra-party dynamics more broadly.

Analysis of the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Election

In the 2024 Taiwan presidential election, Lai Ching-te, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate calling for the continuation of the Tsai Ing-wen administration’s line, won the election, while the DPP lost its majority in the legislative elections held at the same time. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) became the leading party in the Legislative Yuan, and the third largest party, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), although a small party, held the casting vote. The election campaign revolved around the pros and cons of “change in government,” and the DPP, already in power for eight years, had an uphill battle. In the end, however, neither of the opposition parties was able to raise expectations higher than those of the DPP. For the next four years, Taiwan’s political landscape is now under a “divided government,” with the Executive Yuan led by the ruling party but the Legislative Yuan dominated by the opposition parties. This situation shows a fine balancing act, but it could also lead to a paralysis of Taiwanese politics. The election results carry a degree of uncertainty.

Still sacrificial lambs? Yes! Minority groups in Canadian federal elections, 2015–2021

This paper explores whether LGBTQ2S+, racial minorities, Indigenous and women candidates are more likely to be nominated in electoral districts in which they have a limited chance of being elected, that is to be “sacrificial lambs”. We examine the Canadian case since it is well-known for its liberal attitudes regarding diversity (Pew Research, 2020) which may, presumably, shelter candidates of minority groups from such discrimination in electoral politics. Our analysis mobilizes a dataset of candidates who ran for office in the 2015, 2019 and 2021 Canadian federal elections. We consider how partisanship, incumbency, and intersectionality impact the likelihood of minority candidates to be nominated in (non-) winnable electoral districts. Our study shows that women and LGBTQ2S+ candidates are particularly overrepresented in hard-to-win districts. In addition, minority candidates running for the two largest parties are more likely to be nominated in districts their party lost by a landslide at the previous election compared to minority candidates of other parties. Our study also confirms that incumbency is a significantly impediment to the election of minority candidates. Overall, minority groups are still sacrificial lambs in Canadian elections.

Indigenous People’s Self-governing Bodies and the Role of Civil Society: The Case of the Norwegian Sámi

In this paper, the authors look at the relationship between the Sámi Parliament in Norway and the Sámi civil society as seen both from the perspective of the party leaders and representatives, the civil society organisations, and the voters. While strong civil societies are important in ensuring responsive democratic governance systems in general, they may be particularly important in a political system such as the Sámi. Sámi politics operates within the Norwegian unitary state, where the tension between Sámi autonomy and integration into the Norwegian is systemic and where the pressure towards increased co-optation is constantly present. The authors find that Sámi interest and participation in civil society are at the same level as that of the population at large when the authors measure participation in Sámi and Norwegian organisations combined, but only one out of four memberships are in a strictly Sámi organisation. The authors also find that the level and type of contact between the parties represented in the Sámi Parliament and Sámi civil society organisations is very limited, except for organisational contact with the Sámi Parliaments’ administration for information and services. Little points in the direction of these organisations having an important advocacy role. Their control- and opposition role is weak. The rise of a new challenger party, Nordkalottfolket, becoming the second largest party in the election of 2021, breaking with what makes Sámi politics indigenous, seems not to change the structure of the relationship between civil society organisations and the Sámi Parliament.

The Influence of Electronic Word of Mouth and Consumer Involvement on Product Purchasing Decisions at Supplier CV.Adijaya, West Bandung District

CV.Adijaya Supplier company is engaged in the sale of imported and local food raw materials for the needs of hotels, restaurants and bakeries abbreviated as horecaba since 2012 until now. The company sells goods from importers for resale both for sale to individuals and large parties. The goods sold are imported goods from abroad and within the country. This study is designed to determine, both partially and simultaneously on purchasing decisions, how much influence Electronic Word Of Mouth and consumer involvement have in influencing purchasing decisions. Descriptive methods and associative methods will be applied to the research conducted in this study. The sample in this study amounted to 163 respondents. Sampling using Probability Sampling. Testing the validation and reliability of research instruments is also carried out in the analysis method using a number of linear regression analyses. Based on the results of the study, there is an influence of the external variables Electronic Word of Mouth and Consumer Engagement on the endogenous variables of Purchasing Decisions partially and simultaneously. Other factors that have not been studied in this study explain the magnitude of the influence of the work environment and education on performance, namely R2 x 100%7 of 66.7.7% and 33.3% respectively

Hotel or rented flat: A profile of purchasers of accommodation services in Warsaw

The spreading of short-term flat rentals has brought about changes in the accommodation market, often seen as a threat to traditional accommodation providers. This is particularly true in large cities which have a considerable accommodation capacity and also a large stock of flats. The aim is to indicate to what extent short-term rentals are influencing the tourist accommodation market in Warsaw. The idea behind the study is the assumption that the differences revealed between those using hotels or such flats will provide an answer to the question of the influence of the latter on Warsaw»s tourist market. Such information should be useful in the marketing activities of interested parties and in the policies of the city authorities. Analysis of the data from a survey carried out in 2021 using the CHAID decision tree indicates that the choice of accommodation type was mainly determined by situational variables. The only statistically significant demographic predictor relates to a greater interest in flats among those aged up to 34 years old. Planned expenditure per person per overnight stay proved to be a statistically significant predictor only for non-residents of Poland, with the cut-off amount set higher than the median interval for this segment. Flats were more often chosen by people travelling in a larger party or alone and those planning to stay longer than four nights, thus looking for a different offer than that of traditional city hotels.

Three Dimensional Interpretation of The Growth Logic of The CPC's "Original Mission"

The CPC was born in distress, grew up in tribulation, and grew up in overcoming risks. In the past 102 years, our party has been able to develop from 53 party members to a large party with over 98 million party members, which is because the whole party has always adhered to not forgetting its original intention and mission. Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era. The party, which starts from a small boat, must create a new and greater miracle of the Chinese nation in the new era. Only by not forgetting its original intention and keeping its mission in mind. To truly and comprehensively understand the theoretical connotation and contemporary value of the CPC's "original mission", we must understand the generation logic of the original mission. This article will explain why the CPC has determined and always adhered to this original mission from the three dimensions of theory, reality and history.

Криза парламентської демократії та спроби її подолання в Другій Речі Посполитій у 1924-1926 рр.

The purpose of the article is to study the crisis period in the process of establish- ing parliamentary democracy in the Second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1924-1926. Research methodology. General scientifi c complex research methods (empirical, comparative, theoretical, analysis method) are applied. In the process of research, the authors were guided by the principles of historicism, objectivism and systematicity, thanks to which the source and historiographical material processed and involved in this scientifi c investigation is reliable and representative. The scientifi c novelty of the article is determined by the fact that the authors have made an attempt to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the positions of the leading Polish political parties towards the current model of parliamentary democracy, as well as their proposals for its reform. Conclusions. Th e article highlights the political debate in the Polish po- litical space regarding overcoming the crisis of parliamentary democracy through the reform of the electoral legislation and the Constitution of 1921. The party debate on issues of state and the legal system of the Second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1924–1926. The main propos- als for reforming Polish statehood are characterized. It was found that most of the Polish political parties considered the lack of conditions for the creation of a stable parliamentary majority to be the main problem of the crisis in the country’s public life, which would facilitate the imple- mentation of a consistent and long-term government policy. At the same time, the principle of proportional representation, the practice of which led to the emergence of an unreasonably large number of parliamentary factions, was considered the most important drawback of electoral law. One of the proposed options for overcoming the crisis was a transition to a majoritarian electoral system, which would favor large parties and the creation of a strong parliamentary majority and a government based on it.

Democracy Adrift and the Trajectories of the Political Parties in São Tomé and Príncipe

Since 1990, within the framework of the representative democracy then endorsed in São Tomé and Príncipe, there has been open political competition between political parties. Representative democracy and parties are not realities averse to the prevailing cultural patterns on the islands. However, this does not mean that parties have a role consistent with the idealization, common among São Toméans, about what they should represent and do in a representative democracy. For example, the governance programs or even the number of militants are not always known. Nor do party programs, when made explicit, clearly distinguish the various parties. Despite the openness to the creation of new parties, mainly presidential initiatives, the party landscape has been characterized by opposition between the two largest parties, the Movement for the Liberation of São Tomé and Príncipe, the historic independence party, and Independent Democratic Action , which in recent years has asserted itself as the dominant party. In this text, in addition to the summary characterization of the functioning and performance of the parties – sometimes, one-man parties –, an attempt is also made to characterize the free and open political competition in which the parties have moved from 1990 to the present day. Factors undermining democracy are highlighted, for example, the growing political and social entropy, discouragement and the feeling of loss of determination of individual and collective futures, and even temptations of authoritarian drifts. Strictly speaking, perhaps more than the erosion of democracy, we are witnessing the decantation of disbelief in the country, which contaminates all political action. Some politicians point out the need for changes in the parties, even for them to have a fruitful action, if not to achieve development, at least to contain impoverishment and greater social fissures. However, the hypothesis that parties will continue to replicate the practices and vices that lead to the gap between parties and society is more plausible, not to say accurate. Incidentally, the recent political history of the island highlights a set of purposes and actions, guided by acrimony and violence, averse to a minimum cohesion, which is why it is difficult to believe in overcoming the obstacles set for the pacification of political and social competition.

Using Direct Observation to Examine the Relationship between Smoking and Consumption Patterns in a Middle Eastern Food Services Setting

Abstract Despite the widespread implementation of tobacco control efforts, tobacco use persists in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), which is projected to experience the smallest decline in worldwide smoking rates. Although researchers have never explicitly examined the relationship between smoking and consumption behaviour, the two phenomena may be interrelated, especially in social settings. Utilising unobtrusive observational research, the current study examines the influence of smoking and social interaction on food and beverage purchases in one specific EMR country, Kuwait. The findings indicate that smokers tend to congregate in larger parties, purchase more items, spend more overall, and exhibit longer dwell time in comparison to their non-smoking counterparts. One explanation is that smoking and social interaction remain entwined in the social and cultural traditions of the region.

Unleash Britain’s Potential (To Go Negative): Campaign Negativity in the 2017 and 2019 UK General Elections on Facebook

Negative campaigning has long concerned scholars because of the potential effects on the electorate and on democracy. Most scholarship has focused on single-election studies in the United States, whereas less is known about how campaigns go on the attack in the UK, and few compare two elections. Drawing from a dataset of Facebook posts by parties and leaders in Great Britain during the five weeks of campaigning in the 2017 and 2019 General Elections (N = 3560), we use supervised machine learning to categorise posts as negative campaigning and distinguish between attacks focused on issues and attacks on candidates’ images. Our findings show that the 2019 election was more negative than in 2017, and that larger parties were more inclined to adopt attacks as a campaign strategy. Moreover, we found that party accounts posted more attack messages than leader accounts and were more focused on attacking based on issues, rather than personal character or image. Finally, we found that attack messages elicit stronger engagement from audiences, with attack messages receiving more attention, particularly attacks on image.

The rising tension between Iraqi Kurdistan’s two major parties

Iraqi Kurdistan, once stable and prosperous, is facing challenges due to tribal politics, conflicts over oil sales and succession disputes within its largest parties. The withdrawal of aging leader Masoud Barzani has intensified the struggle for power between his son and nephew, adding uncertainty to the region’s future. Meanwhile, increased divisions between the major Kurdish parties and Baghdad are further complicating the situation.

The psychological partisan effect of electoral systems: How ideology correlates with strategic voting

Districted proportional systems give an edge to right-wing parties that are more popular in rural areas where district magnitude is small and large parties are mechanically advantaged. In this paper, we explore the role played by voters in this bias by looking at how ideology correlates with strategic voting. We analyze survey data from 44 elections in Western Europe and find that left-wing voters are more likely to support a party that is not viable ( p < 0.01), but once in this position they seem less likely to desert this party for one that is viable ( p < 0.1). Further, we find that this pattern is likely driven by the intensity of partisan preferences as left-wing voters are on average more attached to their favorite party and thus more reluctant to desert it ( p < 0.01). Our study thus demonstrates that the psychological effect of districted proportional systems amplifies the mechanical one in advanced industrial democracies.

Beyond Gerrymandering: A Structural Crisis of the American Electoral System

Two key threats facing American democracy today are gerrymandering and voter suppression. In this article, I argue that both of these threats are a direct consequence of the US using a single-member district (SMD) electoral system. This is because SMD creates significant asymmetrical disproportionality, which is a type of electoral bias that can benefit larger parties over smaller parties. This bias leads to the two largest parties in the US winning more seats than their popular vote, which in turn leads to these parties gaining significant resource advantages over smaller parties. This sets off a self-reinforcing system that keeps these larger parties in power and squeezes out the smaller parties, a process that is especially potent when this dynamic is not offset by public funding of electoral campaigns. The resource advantages that result from such bias include control over government policy, which makes it easier for the larger parties to manipulate election laws to their advantage, including through gerrymandering and voter suppression.

Swedish Foreign Policy, 1809-2019

Reading Graeme D. Eddie’s book – Swedish Foreign Policy, 1809–2019: A Comprehensive Modern History – is a remarkable history lesson. And don’t get me wrong, it is in no way like the boring, never-ending, tedious history lectures held by a dull teacher whotalks way too slowly; it’s something else. While being a historical review, the book is a real page turner! It’s detailed, it’s informative, yet gripping. In the current reality, where Sweden is joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and where the SwedenDemocrats, a populist right-wing party, are now the second largest party, it is relevant to look back in order to understand the present. Reading this book is an excellent start.

New (types of) parties and government: the Danish general election 2022

During the Covid-19 crisis, there was a high level of rallying around the flag for the Social Democratic government. However, support waned with the sense of crisis, and some ‘scandals’ surfaced. The ‘mink scandal’ caused an early election to be called. A high number of parties, 14, competed in the election, and after the election 12 parties are now represented in parliament – a new record number. When comparing the election results of 2019 and 2022, two overall results stand out. First, only one of the two traditional large parties has maintained this status and fragmentation is increased. Second, two new parties made it into the ‘top-5’ in 2022, both formed by former prominent Liberals. The election yielded a narrow victory to the red bloc. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was able to stay in office after the election but exchanged her red bloc parliamentary majority for a coalition government with the Liberals and Moderates. Thus, a new type of coalition has emerged: a majority government spanning the usual two blocs, but challenged by opposition from both the right and left.

Национальная политика советского партийного аппарата управления 1921 – 1950-е гг. (на материалах партийных съездов и конференций)

Introduction. The study analyzes the national policy of the Soviet party administrative apparatus in 1921-1950s based on the materials of major party forums. The analysis of national policy is one of the urgent tasks of modern historical science. Since the decisions of the Soviet management system within the framework of national policy were far from ambiguous, and many of today's problems in the field of interethnic communication have their roots in the Soviet past. It should be noted that the national policy of the state authorities is of great importance not only at the central level, but for the regions, including for our multinational and multi-confessional region of the North Caucasus. Materials and methods. The work is based on the analysis of materials of party congresses, conferences and plenums of the RCP (b)-VKP (b)-CPSU. This research is based on the principles of historicism and objectivity based on a comparative analysis of sources. The problem-chronological principle, based on an extensive rangeofunpublishedarchival documents, as well as articles and mon-© Туфанов Е.В., 2023 ographs of researchers on the stated topic, is the basis for highlighting this historical problem. Analysis. National policy was of key importance for the young Soviet state. It was at the party forums that important and fateful decisions were made in all aspects of the Soviet political system. It should be noted that the resolutions of the party congresses trace the declared internationalism of the RCP (b) – CPSU (b) – CPSU, but we see the ambiguity of national policy which is expressed, on the one hand, by the development of the national education system and repressions against entire peoples (deportation), on the other. Results. The analysis of the national policy of the Soviet state in the declared period on the basis of party congresses allows us to achieve certain results. The national issue was a priority even despite the internationalism of the dominant political force. However, it should be noted that the national issue was no longer raised at large party forums after the XIII Congress, Economic reforms came out on top in state transformations, however, as we see from the experience of past party forums, the implementation of national policy mainly went through the solution of the personnel issue. It should be noted that the implementation of the national policy of the Soviet state had negative consequences. The repressive policy towards a number of ethnic groups in the form of deportation was fundamentally wrong and gave rise even in the post-Soviet period to conflicts on national grounds.