Analysis of the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Election

Abstract

In the 2024 Taiwan presidential election, Lai Ching-te, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate calling for the continuation of the Tsai Ing-wen administration’s line, won the election, while the DPP lost its majority in the legislative elections held at the same time. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) became the leading party in the Legislative Yuan, and the third largest party, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), although a small party, held the casting vote. The election campaign revolved around the pros and cons of “change in government,” and the DPP, already in power for eight years, had an uphill battle. In the end, however, neither of the opposition parties was able to raise expectations higher than those of the DPP. For the next four years, Taiwan’s political landscape is now under a “divided government,” with the Executive Yuan led by the ruling party but the Legislative Yuan dominated by the opposition parties. This situation shows a fine balancing act, but it could also lead to a paralysis of Taiwanese politics. The election results carry a degree of uncertainty.