Its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Research Articles

Land and clean energy trade-off: estimating India’s future land requirement to fulfil INDC commitment

PurposeFor India, with its low agricultural productivity and huge population, land acquisition has always been a serious policy challenge in the installation of land-intensive power projects. India has experienced a large number of projects getting stalled because of land conflict. Yet, there is a paucity of literature pertinent to India that tries to estimate future land requirements taking into consideration of land occupation metric.Design/methodology/approachIn the present study, the dynamic land transformation and land occupation metrics of nine energy sources, both conventional and renewable, are estimated to further determine the magnitude of land requirement that India needs to prepare itself to fulfil its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) commitments. This is illustrated through two different scenarios of energy requirement growth rates, namely, conservative and advanced.FindingsThis analysis suggests that, while nuclear energy entails the lowest dynamic land transformation when land occupation metric is taken into account, waste to energy source possesses least land requirement, followed by coal-fired source. Hydro energy source has highest requirement both in terms of dynamic land transformation and land occupation. It is also seen that land requirement will be 96% and 120% more in INDC scenario than business as usual (i.e. if India continues with its current share of renewables in its energy portfolio in 2030) considering a conservative and an advanced growth rate, respectively.Research limitations/implicationsSome policy recommendations are provided that may aid policymakers to better address the trade-off between clean energy and land and incorporate it into policy planning. This study has not been able to consider future technical efficiency improvement possibilities for all energy sources, which can be incorporated in the proposed framework for further insight.Originality/valueThis paper provides a framework for estimation of future land requirement to fulfil India’s INDC energy plans which is not available in existing literature. The authors confirm that this manuscript is an original work.

Evaluating the Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Sustainable Urban Transport Measures in India

Urban transportation is viewed as the second leading source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The growing number of vehicles and road infrastructure-based supply in Indian cities is viewed as the essential driver of climate change and relevant consequences affecting the sustainability of cities. Under the 2015 Paris agreement, India had declared its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to curtail the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 33-35 % by 2030 from the 2005 level. In this context, sustainable transport measures were analyzed in this study to understand the emission mitigation potential of the transport sector of the Bengaluru Metropolitan Region (BMR) situated in Karnataka, India. Suitable policies were identified under the planning, regulatory, economic and technological instruments that are grouped under four policy bundles. The mitigation potential of the policy bundles is quantitatively evaluated in terms of Vehicle Kilometers Travelled (VKT), exhaust emissions and greenhouse gas emissions. The study also estimated the carbon emission intensity and consumer surplus for different mode users associated with the policy bundles. The findings from sustainable transport scenarios for the design years 2030 and 2050 are compared with business as usual (BAU) scenarios of the respective design years. The policy bundle 4 - a mixture of policies from all the instruments including technological improvements such as electrification of all buses and cars in the city - demonstrated a critical decrease in VKT and emissions when compared with the other policy bundles and thus, provides good scientific decision support for transport policymakers.

When will China fulfill its carbon‐related intended nationally determined contributions? An in‐depth environmental Kuznets curve analysis

AbstractConsidering the enormous amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions generated in China, the country's fulfillment of its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) is essential in achieving the goal of mitigating global climate change delineated in the Paris Agreement. In order to forecast the future development of China's carbon‐related INDC indicators, this research uses a segmented quadratic equation to fit the relationship between economic level and CO2 emissions and a hybrid trend extrapolation model to forecast the emission‐related indicators. The empirical analysis shows that China's CO2 emission peak appeared in 2018 with an emission amount of 9.36 billion tons. The future CO2 emissions after 2018 will present a fluctuating and slowly decreasing trend. As to the carbon intensity, China will meet the INDC target (lower by 60–65% from the 2005 level) in 2022–2023. At that time, China's CO2 emissions will be 8.43–7.96 billion tons and GDP will reach 109.71–125.39 trillion yuan. Furthermore, the empirical analysis also shows that even if China's carbon intensity target is successfully realized, it will still have considerable potential for further reduction. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2030 DPRK’s GHGs mitigation targets on DPRK’s energy system

The DPRK ratified the Paris Agreement on 1st August 2016 and fully committed to achieving goals for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) which was submitted on 3rd October 2016. The DPRK’s INDC includes a mitigation and an adaptation component. In the mitigation component, as unconditional contribution, DPRK intends to achieve with domestic resources the reduction of GHG emissions by 8% by 2030 as compared to Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. Moreover, the conditional contributions are measures that could be implemented if additional international financial support, technology transfer and capacity building are received. The national contribution could be increased up to 40% with international support. This paper focuses on these mitigation targets for DPRK by an interesting case study of GHG emissions for a 12 year period from 1990 to 2002. We proposed the DPRK’s GHGs mitigation model by analyzing the Irish TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System) energy systems modelling tool, and proved the technical availability of CO2-8 scenario delivering an 8% emissions reduction target by 2030. We then compared the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy.

How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey

ABSTRACT This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyse how a carbon tax and/or a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) would affect macroeconomic parameters in Turkey. The modelling work is based on three main policy options for the government by 2030, in the context of Turkey’s mitigation target under its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), that is, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 21% from its Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030: (i) improving the productivity of renewable energy by 1% per annum, a target already included in the INDC, (ii) introducing a new flat rate tax of 15% per ton of CO2 (of a reference carbon price in world markets) imposed on emissions originating from carbon-intensive sectors, and (iii) introducing a new ETS with caps on emission permits. Our base path scenario projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be much lower than Turkey’s BAU trajectory of growth from 430 Mt CO2-eq in 2013 to 1.175 Mt CO2-eq by 2030, implying that the government’s commitment is largely redundant. On the other hand, if the official target is assumed to be only a simple reduction percentage in 2030 (by 21%), but based on our more realistic base path, the government’s current renewable energy plans will not be sufficient to reach it. Turkey’s official INDC is based on over-optimistic assumptions of GDP growth and a highly carbon-intensive development pathway; A carbon tax and/or an ETS would be required to reach the 21% reduction target over a realistic base path scenario for 2030; The policy options considered in this paper have some effects on major sectors’ shares in total value-added. Yet the reduction in the shares of agriculture, industry, and transportation does not go beyond 1%, while the service sector seems to benefit from most of the policy options; Overall employment would be affected positively by the renewable energy target, carbon tax, and ETS through the creation of new jobs; Unemployment rates are lower, economic growth is stronger, and households become better off to a larger extent under an ETS than carbon taxation.

How can China achieve its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by 2030? A multi-criteria allocation of China’s carbon emission allowance

Accelerating global warming has suggested the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activities. In striving to fulfill the Paris Agreement, China has announced its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) aimed at reducing its carbon dioxide (CO2) emission intensity by 60–65% in 2030 against the level of 2005. However, China’s INDCs cannot be fulfilled without formulating appropriate schemes for the allocation of carbon emission allowance (CEA) at sub-national scales. To help close the gap in our knowledge, this paper starts with measuring the overall CEA of China by 2030, and then proposes a science-based scheme for CEA allocation by developing an improved zero sum gains-data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model. It demonstrates that the final CEA of some northern provinces can be cut down as compared to their initial shares and, conversely, most southern provinces experience an increase in their CEA. Comparing the final share of CEA by province with current carbon emissions, we observe that provinces with abundant energy reserves, such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, tend to be operating in a state of overshoot in terms of space for carbon emissions (SCE). In contrast, there remains SCE when it comes to Guangdong, Hunan, Fujian, etc. The remaining provinces, such as Heilongjiang, Hebei and Ningxia, are close to the break-even point. In view of the differing SCE of individual provinces, common but differentiated policies for CO2 emission control would be the key to achieving China’s INDCs. The research findings lay a scientific basis for the Chinese government to make its INDCs come true through inter-provincial collaboration on emission reduction, but also serve as a reference for fueling further scientific discussions and development of schemes for the allocation of responsibility for carbon emissions at multiple scales within and beyond China.

Achieving Turkey’s INDC Target: Assessments of NCCAP and INDC Documents and Proposing Conceivable Policies

In 2015, Turkey submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) before the Paris Conference of the Parties (COP 21), expressing its intention to decrease emissions level at a rate of 21% from business as usual. This emissions reduction target is important as it is the first one for Turkey. However, Turkey faces unemployment problems and needs to sustain its growth. In this study, an Environmentally Extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), based on 2012 Input–Output data, was created, emissions reduction potentials of the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) together with the INDC were calculated, and alternative policies to reduce emissions to the target level and to boost the economy were proposed separately. The study finds that both the preparation and implementation of the previous national documents are problematic, and that Turkey was not meticulous about implementation of the climate mitigation policies in the previous national documents. The study also finds that reaching the emissions target with the INDC policies seems impossible and more conceivable policies are needed, and recommends that the INDC target and document itself should be revised substantially.

Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare. UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies. Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs.

Assessing climate change mitigation proposals for Malaysia: Implications for emissions and abatement costs

In accordance with the Paris Accord to cap global temperature rise to1.5°Celsius over the next 100 years, Malaysia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) seeking to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030, which was changed to 2050 following the Marrakech Proclamation in 2016. This paper analyzes the implications of Malaysia's INDC and an additional proposal of continuing further climate control to cap temperature rise over the next century against the existing scenario in the country. The results show that the cumulative damage from climate change over the period 2010–2100 will amount to MYR2.1 billion under the present climatic regime. It will fall to MYR1.1 billion under scenario 2 and to MYR0.6 billion under scenario 3. Since the total abatement costs for scenario 2 (MYR14.3 billion) is close to that of scenario 3 (MYR14.6 billion) against the significant reduction in climate damage of the latter, the third proposal is the best alternative for Malaysia.

Renewable energy achievements in CO2 mitigation in Thailand's NDCs

Thailand had summited its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in 2015 and ratified the Paris Agreement in September 2016. Its INDCs stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20–25% when compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by using mainly domestic renewable energy resources and energy efficiency improvement. Therefore, this paper assesses the potential of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by the use of renewable energy in Thailand's INDCs and the economic impacts from GHG emission reduction. This paper employed the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE). Besides the BAU scenario, four mitigation scenarios are assessed at given GHG emission levels and renewable power generation targets. Results show that Thailand's INDC can be achieved under the current renewable energy target in Thailand's Power Development Plan 2015. As a result, macroeconomic loss will be small under the light GHG reduction target; however, it will be large under the stringent GHG emission reduction target. The GDP loss ranges from 0.2% in the case of a 20% reduction target to 3.1% in the case of a 40% reduction target in 2030. Thus, the availability of land for deploying the renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind and biomass needs to be assessed.

Towards low-emission development

Historically, Costa Rica has been proactive in climate change negotiations. It announced in 2007 its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2021. And in September last year, in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), the country proposed ambitious emissions reductions and climate action through the year 2050, setting the country on a path towards an effective de-carbonization of its economy.

System Optimization and Co-benefit Analysis of China's Deep De-carbonization Effort towards its INDC Target

In 2015, China has submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to UNFCCC, and committed to reduce the emission intensity per unit of GDP by 60%–65% from its 2005 level in 2030, and also peak the carbon emission around 2030. At the same time, the local pollutant problem and haze problem keeps getting worse in China. This paper focuses on these challenges and critical research topic on co-control of carbon emission and local air pollutants, and evaluate the co-benefit of carbon mitigation on the local pollutant reduction. The work is based on China-MAPLE model framework, a partial equilibrium model with linkage between carbon emission and local air pollutants at technological level. Compared to the reference scenario, in the deep de-carbonization scenario, energy consumption and carbon emission will obviously decreased and the current pollutant control measures are in urgent to be improved; in the Co-control scenario with China's peaking effort, the emission of SO2, NOX and PM2.5 in 2030 will be reduced by 78.85%, 77.56% and 83.32% compared to the level of 2010, which means with the peaking target be fulfilled, the air quality targets can also be achieved.

Nuclear viewpoint in India

ABSTRACTNuclear power is a crucial source of clean energy for India. In the near-term, India is focusing on thermal reactors using natural and enriched uranium. In the long-term, India is exploring various options to use its large thorium reserves.India’s present nuclear installed capacity is 5680 MW, which contributes to about 3.4% of the annual electricity generation. However, nuclear power is an important source of energy in India’s aspirations for energy security and also in achieving its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), of 40% fossil free electricity, by 2030. India has limited uranium reserves, but abundant thorium reserves. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) lifted restrictions on trade with India, in 2008, enabling India to import uranium (natural and enriched) and nuclear reactors. In the near–term (2030), the nuclear capacity could increase to about 42,000 MW. This would be from a combination of domestic Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR) and imported Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). For the long–term (2050), India is exploring various options for utilising its vast thorium reserves. This includes Advanced Heavy Water Reactor and Molten Salt Breeder Reactor. However, generating public acceptance will be crucial to the expansion of the nuclear power program.

Transition pathways for a sustainable low-carbon energy system in Thailand

As a non-Annex I country, Thailand has pledged its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030 and by up to 25% with adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources, and capacity building support. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how these targets could possibly be met, as far as energy-related CO2 emissions are concerned, and to propose alternative pathways for fast transition to a low-carbon and cleaner energy system along with its technology and research requirements. The study approach is based on the 6th Edition of APEC Energy Outlook for 2040 and the energy-related CO2 emissions scenarios developed at the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. It is found that Thailand's voluntary INDC target on energy-related emissions could be achieved by a combination of energy efficiency improvement efforts and deployment of renewable energy in line with their respective official plans. The higher conditional INDC target of 25% could also be reached by a natural gas dominated power sector, in addition to energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment measures, at the risk of worsening its energy security and increased cost of electricity. An alternative scenario that would not only meet the conditional INDC target but also lead to a fast transition towards a low-carbon and cleaner energy system by 2040 is possible. The scenario is based on a balanced approach, taking into account energy security, cost, and environment. It requires ambitious energy efficiency improvement (particularly in the transport sector) and renewable energy targets, and significant de-carbonization of the power sector. The scenario will see Thailand's energy-related CO2 emissions peaking around 2030 and a 45% cut below the projected BAU level in 2040. The technologies and research required to support the transition have also been identified for the power, transport, commercial buildings, and industry sectors.

Indonesia\u2019s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities’ benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.

The air quality co-benefit of coal control strategy in China

Coal keeps dominating the primary energy consumption in China, and is highly-related to the carbon emission and air quality challenge. Recently, China has submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and committed to peak the carbon emission around 2030, and reduce the emission intensity by 60%–65% in 2030 compared to the 2005 level. Moreover, severe haze problem blanketed China in recent years and tends to getting worse, which is directly related to fossil fuel combustion, especially coal consumption in China. To address these challenges, this study carried out an analysis on effect of coal control strategy to energy system and local pollutant reduction. A bottom-up model of China-MAPLE is developed, linking the carbon emission and local pollutant emissions to the coal control policy scenarios. Four scenarios are designed for the energy system and co-benefit study. Three main conclusions can be drawn based on the study: first, the deep energy conservation measures including coal control has apparent effect on the energy system optimization, and the coal peaking year is near 2020 which is highly related and consistent with the carbon peaking. Second, the end-of-pipe control measures will significantly reduce the local pollutant emission, however the reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the air quality standard. Energy conservation measures, especially coal control strategy, are essential for the source control side. Third, for the co-control from both source control and end-of-pipe control, emission of SO2, NOX and PM2.5 in 2030 will be reduced by 78.85%, 77.56% and 83.32% compared to the level of 2010, which fits the air quality targets, together with carbon peaking target achieved. In electricity generation sector, the source control measures will contribute 10%–35% in future and coal control measures contributes 17%–40% to the local pollutant reduction. The strategy of coal control is of high importance for carbon mitigation and also local pollutant control.

Transparency and Climate Change:A Study of Companies on the Sustainability Disclosure Forefront

Sustainability disclosure is an important technique for enhancing overall sustainability measures of companies. This is an important aspect as it shoves the companies on to a sustainable pathway. India is on a rapid economic development pathway and this brings it face to face with service, products and process options of development, which are cheaper and easier to access but which could prove to be disastrous, from the point of view of sustainability and imminent climate change. India in its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) released on October 2, 2014 commits cutting emission intensity by 33‒ 35% by 2030 from 2005 levels along with increasing share of non-fossil fuels energy in its total mix to 40%. This ambitious target can be possible only with the cooperation and active participation of companies. Sustainability disclosure is a stepping stone towards environmentally feasible measures. According to the Prakash Jadavekar, Minister of State for Environment, Forests and Climate Change, the Indian companies have learnt the green mantra for sustainable development, that going green makes good business sense too. The companies making disclosures are now making long term investment in low carbon purchase, renewable installations and greener infrastructure among others. Moreover, the numbers of companies making disclosure on the sustainability front are also increasing over the last few years. The past 3 years have seen Indian companies increasing transparency through disclosures as a commitment towards climate change responsibilities. The number of companies, with score above 90 for disclosure, has increased from 11% in 2013 to 65% in 2015.

Could more civil society involvement increase public support for climate policy-making? Evidence from a survey experiment in China

Abstract Governments need the support of their citizens in order to be able to adopt and implement ambitious environmental protection policies. Recent research on liberal democratic systems has found evidence that increased civil society organization involvement can help increase the popular legitimacy of (that is, public support for) such policy-making. We are interested in whether this finding is also relevant to other types of political systems. To find out we implemented a survey experiment in China (N = 932). The empirical focus is on climate policy, a paradigmatic global governance effort, in which China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, plays a key role. The results show that people welcome the involvement of civil society actors – with the exception of business civil society organizations – in climate policy-making, though most participants in our survey experiment did not favor civil society organizations over government agencies. They also show, however, that moving from non-inclusion to inclusion of civil society organizations improves people’s assessment of transparency and representational quality of climate governance (two key facets of input or procedural legitimacy) by 14 and 24% respectively. Our findings suggest that – even though few civil society organizations are currently independent from government in China – increased civil society organizations involvement in climate policy-making could contribute to enhancing public support for climate policy. In view of great challenges China faces in implementing its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) within the Paris Agreement framework, its climate policy could thus benefit from greater involvement of civil society organizations.

Внесок України до нової Глобальної кліматичної угоди

The article shows that Ukraine's participation in the new global climate agreement (Paris Agreement) has a great potential for the country, including financial, technological, intellectual and other benefits. The reason is that the agreement is aimed at raising, by 2025, at least 100 bn USD, from which Ukraine can benefit to modernize the economy, increase welfare and take the path of low-emission development. This path provides a permanent growth capability for the economy without an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and impact on the environment, which is referred to as decoupling. Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement, Ukraine, like other countries, submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), which stipulates the goal of not exceeding, 60% of country's 1990 level of GHG emissions in 2030. The article proves that such a goal is not enough ambitious, because Ukraine can reach it with a minimal effort. Ukraine has a great potential to reduce GHG emissions to 35-40% of 1990 level by 2030, although for its implementation, considerable investments are needed (from 75 to 100 bn EUR by 2030). Insufficient justification of the commitments (targets) may become an obstacle to attracting enough investments. Therefore, Ukraine should reconsider its commitments under the Paris Agreement before it enters into force. At the same time, it should be noted that Ukraine to a great extent accounted for the principle of fairness in defining its INDC targets (at least at this stage), because, since 1990, country has made a significant contribution to reducing global GHG emissions, although it was accompanied by significant GDP and output decline. In addition, analysis of the INDC objectives of the large GHG emitters shows that their commitments allow them to significantly increase global emissions.

Exploring linkages among China's 2030 climate targets

China published its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC on 30 June 2015. In this document, China promised to reach its CO2 emissions peak no later than 2030, reducing its carbon intensity by 60–65% by 2030, relative to the 2005 level, and to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20% by 2030. Using a simple method and official data, this article aims to explore the linkages among these three targets. First, it shows that as long as China achieves its 2030 non-fossil fuel target, its carbon emissions peak can be attained prior to 2030. Second, it provides a panoramic view of the link between carbon intensity and non-fossil fuel targets with different levels of GDP growth rate and energy elasticity. This article also presents further conclusions based on this finding: first, that a GDP carbon intensity target may help to control the absolute level of the carbon emissions peak, but it could be inconsistent with the development of non-fossil fuel power; and second, that a GDP energy intensity objective, together with a non-fossil fuel target, is necessary to ensure target coherency.Policy relevanceThe carbon emissions peak and the non-fossil fuel share of the energy mix can be considered as two key pillars of China's post-2020 climate pledges under the UNFCCC negotiation framework. It is therefore important to understand the relation between the two targets. This article uses a very simple non-modelling approach to demonstrate the implications of the achievement of China's non-fossil fuels target in terms of its carbon emissions peak and the linkage between achieving carbon intensity and non-fossil fuel targets under different growth and energy elasticity assumptions. Without focusing on the relevance of peak level or time, the authors illustrate the relationship between the 2030 non-fossil fuels target and the carbon emissions peak, highlighting the potential inconsistency between GDP carbon intensity and non-fossil fuels targets. These findings should have both political and academic uses to enable further clarification and analysis of China's INDC.