Renewable energy achievements in CO2 mitigation in Thailand's NDCs

Abstract

Thailand had summited its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in 2015 and ratified the Paris Agreement in September 2016. Its INDCs stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20–25% when compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by using mainly domestic renewable energy resources and energy efficiency improvement. Therefore, this paper assesses the potential of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by the use of renewable energy in Thailand's INDCs and the economic impacts from GHG emission reduction. This paper employed the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE). Besides the BAU scenario, four mitigation scenarios are assessed at given GHG emission levels and renewable power generation targets. Results show that Thailand's INDC can be achieved under the current renewable energy target in Thailand's Power Development Plan 2015. As a result, macroeconomic loss will be small under the light GHG reduction target; however, it will be large under the stringent GHG emission reduction target. The GDP loss ranges from 0.2% in the case of a 20% reduction target to 3.1% in the case of a 40% reduction target in 2030. Thus, the availability of land for deploying the renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind and biomass needs to be assessed.