Indonesia\u2019s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)

Aritta Suwarno,Hans-Peter Weikard,Meine Van Noordwijk,Desi Suyamto

doi:10.1007/s11027-016-9721-0

Abstract

The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the local communities’ benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on local resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.

Highlights

A landmark agreement in combating climate change was achieved at the Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris (UNFCCC 2015a, b)
As a tool for this analysis, we developed an agent-based Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES) model to capture the human-environment system in tropical forest margins
In West Kotawaringin, where the forests were under threat from the local communities and companies, the implementation of the Business as usual (BAU) scenario from 2010 to 2025 could potentially reduce the area of peat forest and forest on mineral soil by about 11 and 5 %, respectively

Summary

Introduction

A landmark agreement in combating climate change was achieved at the Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris (UNFCCC 2015a, b). This agreement charted a new course in the global effort to enhance support and assistance for developing countries to combat climate change and to adapt to its effects. In the preparation of the agreement, the countries involved agreed to publicly outline what post-2020 climate actions they intend to take under a new international agreement, known as their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). INDCs should articulate how a country is integrating climate change into other national priorities, such as sustainable development and poverty reduction, and encourages the private sector to contribute to these efforts (UNFCCC 2015a)

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