Evaluating the Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Sustainable Urban Transport Measures in India

Abstract

Urban transportation is viewed as the second leading source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The growing number of vehicles and road infrastructure-based supply in Indian cities is viewed as the essential driver of climate change and relevant consequences affecting the sustainability of cities. Under the 2015 Paris agreement, India had declared its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to curtail the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 33-35 % by 2030 from the 2005 level. In this context, sustainable transport measures were analyzed in this study to understand the emission mitigation potential of the transport sector of the Bengaluru Metropolitan Region (BMR) situated in Karnataka, India. Suitable policies were identified under the planning, regulatory, economic and technological instruments that are grouped under four policy bundles. The mitigation potential of the policy bundles is quantitatively evaluated in terms of Vehicle Kilometers Travelled (VKT), exhaust emissions and greenhouse gas emissions. The study also estimated the carbon emission intensity and consumer surplus for different mode users associated with the policy bundles. The findings from sustainable transport scenarios for the design years 2030 and 2050 are compared with business as usual (BAU) scenarios of the respective design years. The policy bundle 4 - a mixture of policies from all the instruments including technological improvements such as electrification of all buses and cars in the city - demonstrated a critical decrease in VKT and emissions when compared with the other policy bundles and thus, provides good scientific decision support for transport policymakers.