System Optimization and Co-benefit Analysis of China's Deep De-carbonization Effort towards its INDC Target

Abstract

In 2015, China has submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to UNFCCC, and committed to reduce the emission intensity per unit of GDP by 60%–65% from its 2005 level in 2030, and also peak the carbon emission around 2030. At the same time, the local pollutant problem and haze problem keeps getting worse in China. This paper focuses on these challenges and critical research topic on co-control of carbon emission and local air pollutants, and evaluate the co-benefit of carbon mitigation on the local pollutant reduction. The work is based on China-MAPLE model framework, a partial equilibrium model with linkage between carbon emission and local air pollutants at technological level. Compared to the reference scenario, in the deep de-carbonization scenario, energy consumption and carbon emission will obviously decreased and the current pollutant control measures are in urgent to be improved; in the Co-control scenario with China's peaking effort, the emission of SO2, NOX and PM2.5 in 2030 will be reduced by 78.85%, 77.56% and 83.32% compared to the level of 2010, which means with the peaking target be fulfilled, the air quality targets can also be achieved.