Geopolitical Influence Research Articles

Российско-американское противостояние в Арктике

The study is based on a comparative analysis of the rhetoric of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the US Secretaries of State, as well as an analysis of the policy of the United States and the Russian Federation in the region in three areas: the Northern Sea Route, energy projects, and militarization of the region. Comparison of the real policy and discourse of representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in this region will help identifing risks and opportunities for resolving conflict situations in the region and building a territory of peace and dialogue in the Arctic. The chronological scope of the study will be limited to 01.02.2013–20.10.2022 in order to reveal the dynamics of Russian-American relations in the region over a given period of time, since their interaction will also depend on Russia's relations with Western countries in the Arctic due to the geopolitical influence of the United States on the foreign policy of its allies.

Spatial Distribution of Secondary Forests by Age Group and Biomass Accumulation in the Brazilian Amazon

Secondary forests provide essential ecosystem services, especially in helping to mitigate climate change with the storage of carbon in the aboveground biomass of tree species. In this context, the present research aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of secondary forests and estimate the aboveground biomass accumulation of land cover of different ages in the state of Pará. The spatial patterns of the secondary forests in Pará state were evaluated with hot spot analysis algorithms using data from the TerraClass project for the 2004–2014 time period. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the secondary forests did not occur randomly in space, but suggested local geopolitical influences. The younger secondary forests had the most deforested areas during the study period. Approximately 5% of Pará had its secondary forests deforested in 2014. In general, the balance of the secondary forests was positive. The aboveground biomass accumulation differed according to the secondary forest ages during the study period as evaluated in two pilot areas. It was observed that the secondary forests > 10 years old in pilot area A had an average of 23% of old-growth forest aboveground biomass in the same area, while in pilot area B, the secondary forests > 10 years old had an average of 32.7% of old-growth forest aboveground biomass.

Germany and Nord Stream 2: evolution and end of an incongruous policy

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project to deliver gas from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany, and on to other parts of Europe, was a subject of unrelenting contestation. It impelled the convergence and intensification of already highly politicised domains: economics, energy, environment, conventional security, history, and values. Russian authorities, Nord Stream 2 AG and its investor consortium, and supportive politicians were opposed by governments of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, the USA, EU institutions, and some NGOs. Germany was confronted with sharp dilemmas and remains the pivotal actor in this confluence. The responsible German ministry rescinded approval to operate the pipeline 2 days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The topic encourages interaction of materialist IPE with other branches of International Relations, comparative politics, history, and law to incorporate identity-based, normative, and geopolitical influences on nominally economic activity and policy.

Directions for Sustainable Development of China’s Coal Industry in the Post-Epidemic Era

China’s energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels, especially coal consumption, which accounts for a relatively high share. In January 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak affected the global coal market, and many countries experienced negative economic growth. Economic development requires energy consumption. In 2021, China set a target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 in order to phase out the dependence of carbon emissions on economic development. Therefore, the aim of this article is to develop directions for the sustainable development of China’s coal industry. Based on the macroenvironment and situation analysis, the article concludes that, under the influence of geopolitics, China’s shortage of imported coal resources and China’s continuous rise in coal demand, the share of coal in China’s energy structure will not decrease significantly in the long-term. The main directions for the sustainable development of China’s coal industry are to ensure the safety of coal energy storage and improve the level of safety supervision; coordinate the development of regional energy; increase the clean, efficient, and low-carbon utilization of coal; and strengthen international coal strategic cooperation.

Simulating territory: the rise and demise of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan as an imaginary regional formation

ABSTRACT The leadership of the People’s Republic of China has crafted several creative territorialization strategies designed to consolidate the administrative control and extend the geopolitical influence of its ruling Chinese Communist Party. This article focuses one such strategy aimed at three distinct polities – Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan – by examining the bureaucratic establishment of an imaginary regional formation that spans them, and its suture to the “One Country, Two Systems” formulation of variegated sovereignty. I propose that this suture constitutes a novel geopolitical strategy of simulation in the service of territorial expansion. Material devices to implement the strategy include mobility and residence permits, while discursive tactics include the reattribution of statements by past leaders to match the new imaginary formation. However, rather than forging cultural unity and compelling territorial unification, the intensification of the simulation corresponded with a spike in self-determination sentiment and demonstrations in both Hong Kong and Taiwan. This case shows that by fabricating an imaginary regional formation, a state can facilitate the multiplication of different bordering schemes between and within territories it effectively administers, while at the same time press irredentist claims against a different and de facto independent state, with explosive outcomes.

A figurational approach to soft power and sport events. The case of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™.

Soft power' is a term often used to explain how states seek to be appealing and attractive to others to increase their geopolitical influence instead of using military force or economic threats. As part of a soft power agenda, sport events showcase the values, culture and imagery of a host nation, and through that, ideally, attract investors, tourists and attention. But there are problems with the concept, especially when it is adopted by sport events where it is used as a metaphor, as a heuristic device, and a descriptor of current affairs, to name a few. In particular, the concept does not necessarily capture the accumulation of tit-for-tat strategies and bargaining in geopolitics where sport events are involved. In contrast, by using the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ as key example and drawing upon Norbert Elias' figurational sociology as source of theoretical refinement, this article discusses how soft power can become more precise as an analytical category in a context of sport and geopolitics.

Zeitenwende für die Außenwirtschaftspolitik

Abstract There is currently a geopoliticisation of foreign policy, which is primarily driven by dependencies on autocratic systems. Autocracies are constantly on the rise, especially when measured by the percentage distribution of the world population. Even though the EU still trades with significantly more democracies than autocracies, trade relations with autocracies are often characterised by strong dependencies, especially with regard to critical raw materials such as lithium or magnesium. This also applies to the market for medical products, where China in particular uses its position as the main supplier to expand its geopolitical influence. This, together with the fact that autocracies are generally more likely to impose trade restrictions than democracies, means that the EU needs a strategy for how to handle trade with autocratic regimes in the future.

Mapping the Russian Political Influence Ecosystem: The Night Wolves Biker Gang

Computational propaganda—the use of political bots and trolls for orchestrated interventions in online political discourse—is not the only means through which nefarious actors assert political influence in democracies around the world. In the context of influence operations, a significant—yet, understudied—phenomenon is the so-called “boots on the ground”—political communities with ties to state actors that aptly use digital tools to engage in framing and contestation of political events, narratives, and agendas. This article defines political micro-influencers as strategic communicative actors who perform authentic political identities with the goal of influencing public attitudes and behaviors. Situating the inquiry in the context of Russian influence operations, this article investigates the case of the Night Wolves Motorcycle Club by mapping the narratives associated with the movement and examining their structural and functional characteristics. Findings demonstrate how migrant counterpublics and historically nonconforming social groups get co-opted to propagate Russian geopolitical influence in Western democracies. On the basis of this case, the study provides guidelines and suggestions for future work on identifying political micro-influencers and tracing their narratives across the digital ecosystem.

The Philippines’ hedging strategy against China in the South China Sea dispute: Based on the human-ocean regional system

We constructed an analytical framework and geo-influence model for the South China Sea (SCS) disputes in the context of the human–ocean regional system. Specifically, we used the Goldstein score and the number of mentions of the events in the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone to build a hedging model to portray the evolution of Philippine hedging against China and provided ideas for the response. The results show that, first, the complexity of natural, social, and relational attributes in the geographical system of human–ocean relations profoundly affect the Philippines’ threat perception of China, making it become the root cause of the hedging strategy. The geopolitical influence of the Chinese and American powers in the SCS region and the systemic pressure formed by their competitive game were the direct causes of the Philippines’ hedging strategy. Second, since the 21st century, the evolutionary features of the Philippine hedging pattern against China have been remarkable and can be divided into three phases: cooperative behavior over confrontational behavior (2001–2010), confrontational over cooperative behavior (2010–2016), and moderation of oppositional behavior and decline in cooperative behavior (2016–2022). Finally, China should continue to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with the Philippines in low-political areas such as marine scientific research, marine education, and marine environmental protection. Furthermore, China should shoulder its responsibilities as a major country, actively promote the “Code of Conduct Consultation in the South China Sea”, and continue to strengthen its own maritime strategic determination and planning capacity.

International opportunities and technical challenges for the space elevator

The space elevator is a hypothetical concept for placing satellites in orbit around Earth that would result in dramatic cost savings over traditional rocket launches. The space elevator would work by placing a counterweight in space that is tethered to the Earth's surface and held in place by the centrifugal force of the Earth's rotation. Technical challenges, particularly those related to the tether material, have prevented a space elevator from getting past the design stage. Should future advances in materials science allow the space elevator to be built, consideration should be paid to the geopolitical influence that a real space elevator might have. Its unique combination of cost, wartime utility, and vulnerability mean that a peaceful consortium of nations working together should be considered as a potential management model.

A Friend in Need May Not Be a Friend Indeed: Anti-Coronavirus Aid and China’s Soft Power in Europe

ABSTRACT Is foreign aid an effective soft power tool to bolster the international image of donor states? This article explores this question in the context of China’s humanitarian assistance to Europe amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Anti-coronavirus aid generated affinity for Beijing in some receiver countries while backfired in others. Borrowing insights from social psychology, this study presents an explanation for this heterogeneous effect. It argues that beneficiaries’ initial views of China predispose Beijing’s image to a confirmation bias, leading the perceptions of pandemic aid intent to be aligned with pre-existing assessments. Specifically, receiver states with predominantly favorable views of China tend to appreciate the transfer of resources as an act of goodwill. However, recipient countries which lean towards a negative belief of the PRC are inclined to interpret the assistance as a faulty mask diplomacy to manipulate narratives and to expand geopolitical influence. The theory suggests that foreign aid cannot alter donors’ global standing, but rather, it merely reinforces their established images.

Reviewing the impact of LNG technology advancements on global energy markets

Rapid technological advancements in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) have catalyzed a transformative shift in global energy markets. This review delves into the profound impact of LNG technology advancements, exploring their multifaceted consequences on the dynamics of the energy landscape. The evolution of LNG technologies, spanning liquefaction, transportation, and regasification processes, has ushered in a new era of energy accessibility, sustainability, and market competitiveness. The burgeoning role of LNG as a cleaner and more versatile fuel source is examined against the backdrop of global efforts to address climate change. Environmental considerations, carbon reduction goals, and the burgeoning demand for cleaner energy sources are driving the increasing adoption of LNG in the global energy transition. Government initiatives supporting LNG adoption and renewable energy policies influencing its utilization are dissected to comprehend the intricate policy factors shaping global LNG consumption. Economic drivers, including cost competitiveness and market dynamics, play a pivotal role in shaping the global LNG landscape. The review assesses the economic growth and industrial demand for LNG, providing insights into the intricate relationship between economic factors and the surge in LNG consumption. Additionally, the expansion of global LNG production capacity, exploration of unconventional gas resources, and geopolitical influences on LNG supply patterns are thoroughly scrutinized to provide a comprehensive understanding of the forces steering LNG trade dynamics. The regional dynamics in LNG trade are elucidated with a focus on major economies such as Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America. The rising demand from these regions, coupled with infrastructure developments and regulatory frameworks, underscores the intricate interplay of factors shaping LNG trade dynamics on a regional scale. Furthermore, the review delves into the geopolitical implications of recent events on LNG markets, scrutinizing trade agreements and geopolitical risks to provide a holistic view of the broader geopolitical landscape impacting LNG stakeholders. In summation, this review provides a comprehensive analysis of LNG technology advancements and their far-reaching impact on global energy markets. As technological innovations continue to reshape the LNG landscape, this review serves as a roadmap for understanding the intricate interplay of environmental, economic, regional, and geopolitical factors that collectively define the contemporary dynamics of the LNG industry.

In Search of Digital Sovereignty and Strategic Autonomy: Normative Power Europe to the Test of Its Geopolitical Ambitions

This article analyses the recent use of European Union (EU) terminology of digital sovereignty and strategic autonomy, aiming to identify tensions between policy considerations of fundamental rights, free market principles and geopolitical concerns. These tensions are rooted in the disparity between the EU's considerable economic and regulatory power in digital matters and its limited mandate and capabilities in foreign policy. The article also explores the translation of the notions of digital sovereignty and strategic autonomy into EU policy. It identifies three important trends in the geopoliticisation of the EU agenda on digital technologies: (1) the instrumental use of ‘classic’ internal market policies to exert geopolitical influence; (2) the imposition of foreign policy imperatives on national markets; and (3) new ‘hybrid’ digital policies that combine internal market concerns, fundamental rights and geopolitical concerns. Ultimately, digital sovereignty has inherent tensions with the EU's normative power in digital issues and may also result in a strategic cacophony.

BASHKORTOSTAN AND THE ARAB WORLD: INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY HUB PROSPECT

The article is focused on the influence of the climate agenda on the policy of Arab oil-producing countries and the prospects for cooperation with them of Russia in general and Bashkortostan in particular. The authors investigate the transformation of the climate agenda into a mechanism used to compensate for the growing geopolitical influence of Arab oil-producing countries, including trends formed by global climate agreements to abandon hydrocarbon fuels and divestment in the oil industry. The article analyzes the new types of risks that have appeared in the oil industry in recent years and are tied to the climate agenda. Fundamentally new moments in the policy ofthe Persian Gulf countries in 2022 are revealed: an attempt to promote their own version of the climate agenda and «Net zero» concept. The prospect of changing the role of Arab countries in the global climate agenda is assessed in the light ofthe fundamental changes in the world order in 2022.

Post-Soviet De Facto States in the Theory of Small States

With their geographic and economic dimensions, post-Soviet de facto states are very small structures, yet they have existed for over a quarter of a century. This means that they have already had a generation that has no connection with the mother state from which they have separated. However, because the patron of their independence is (or, in the case of Artsakh, indirectly) Russia, which even officially recognized two of them (Abkhazia and South Ossetia-Alania), many authors keep observing their development. Their geopolitical importance significantly increased after the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Unrecognized states cannot be open economies, even if they wanted. In addition, in the case of post-Soviet de facto states, these are underdeveloped economies with high import costs and whose products are characterized by low competitiveness. The submitted contribution focuses on these structures from the point of view of the theory of small states. Based on geographic, demographic, economic and historical indicators, as well as the ability to resist reintegration, they suggest their theoretical possibilities of defending factual independence and gaining wider international recognition. The theory of small states shows in practice that the benefits of "smallness" cannot be used by de facto states to strengthen their political and economic prestige precisely because of the absence of international recognition and the rivalry of large states over geopolitical influence.

The European Union’s Eastern partnership initiative under the polyhybrid aggression of the Russian Federation

The aim of the article is to reveal the essence and to determine the levels of the polyhybrid aggression of the Russian Federation to the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative and to develop recommendations for its improvement in terms of the geopolitical influences of Russia. To achieve its goals in the Eastern European region, the Russian Federation uses a multidimensional hybrid aggression, namely a polyhybrid aggression, when non-military crises are provoked and maintained in order to weaken the adversary, as a preparatory stage for a direct military invasion. In the case of the Eastern Partnership initiative, it is introduced by attempts to prove its inexpediency and ineffectiveness. The study shows that the Russian polyhybrid aggression has been extended not only to the countries of the Eastern Partnership, but also to the EU – aimed at weakening its transformative power in Eastern Europe, and to the Russian society – aimed at shaping negative stereotypes about the EU and legitimizing the actions of the Russian government. Achieving the Eastern Partnership goals depends on Russia’s democratization and its compliance with international law. The following methods were used to solve the research problem: descriptive and historical method, sociological data analysis, forecasting method and structural-functional method.

Military-Political Activity of NATO in Africa

The article analyzes the implementation of NATO’s regional strategy in Africa after the end of the Cold War. The author evaluates the intervention of NATO in conflicts on the continent, primarily in Libya, as well as anti-piracy missions and considers the development of NATO’s partnership with African countries in multilateral and individual formats. Special attention is paid to the study of the Alliance’s interaction with the states of the Sahel region, primarily Mauritania. It is concluded that Africa in the near future will be one of the world’s regions on which NATO will project its military and political power, trying to include it in the sphere of its geopolitical influence. To realize this goal, the North Atlantic Alliance will not only increase security cooperation with various regional partners, but will also seek to limit the cooperation of Russia and China with African states in the military-political sphere.

Турция–“Талибан”: алгоритмы взаимодействия

The relationship between Turkey and the Taliban* from the late 1990s to date has gone through periods of decline, when Ankara sided with the collective West and the pro-Western governments of Afghanistan, and recovery, when Turks attempted to mediate in the Afghan conflict and then forged links with the new Taliban* government. In light of these circumstances, the author analyzes the long-standing historical ties between Turkey and Afghanistan in the context of the shared Islamic culture of the two peoples. The author notes the Taliban’s accumulated grievances against the Turkish side are noted, including the provision of a forum for the Afghan opposition forces to exchange views as well as Ankara’s demands for the principle of inclusivity in the formation of authorities and respect for human rights in Afghanistan. It is possible that Ankara could become more or less involved in the internal Afghan conflict, which contradicts its own policy of a neutral player in Afghanistan. The author draws attention to the Taliban’s* pragmatic approach to the development of relations with Turkey, especially in the areas of economy and education. The author concludes that, despite some difficulties in its relations with the Taliban government, Ankara is determined to increase its geopolitical influence in the region with a focus on Central Asia and thus tries to enhance its value for its NATO allies. The analysis reveals Turkey’s desire to strengthen its presence in Afghanistan and become an important regional player. However, in the current circumstances, the Turks do not yet have an opportunity to have a serious impact on Kabul. * the organization is banned on the territory of the Russian Federation

АНТИКРИЗИСНОЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫМ ПРОИЗВОДСТВОМ В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИЙ

This article examines the factors that determine the systemic stability of Russian industry in the context of the imposition of sanctions by foreign countries. The purpose of the article is to identify areas of anti-crisis management of industrial production in modern conditions of sanctions pressure. As a result of the study, the role of anti-crisis management of industrial production in Russia for its restoration was revealed. Overcoming the annual indicators of unprofitable enterprises in Russia since 2016 was not possible until 2023. In addition, the number of bankrupt enterprises in the period 2007–2022. does not decrease. These indicators indicate the significant influence of external factors associated with geopolitical influence on the activities of enterprises. The study identified risks associated with the activities of industrial enterprises: the risk of a global recession, a high probability of increased sanctions pressure, the risk of a reduction in export earnings and the persistence of pro-inflationary risks. The sanctions pressure did not provoke a serious crisis in the regional industry, but created conditions for reducing dependence on imports, localizing production within the region, optimizing the structure and vector of foreign trade activities of industrial enterprises. However, due to the increased sanctions pressure in 2022 in the field of industrial production, it is necessary to formulate additional measures for anti-crisis management. Anti-crisis management under sanctions depends not only on the activities of the enterprises themselves based on internal processes, but also on the activities of the state. To build new supply chains, establish alternative channels for selling products, and actively develop import substitution, large-scale infrastructure investments are required, which depends on significant government participation in the form of investments and the formation of legislation to support the development of domestic industrial production.

ФЕНОМЕН ИСТОРИЧЕСКОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ КАК ФАКТОР РОССИЙСКО-ПОЛЬСКИХ ОТНОШЕНИЙ

The purpose of this work is to study the influence of public opinion on the formation of modern Russian-Polish relations. The work concretizes the concept of the phenomenon of “historical politics” in the context of Poland’s foreign policy strategy in the eastern direction in the conditions of post-bipolar world. The article analyzes the mechanisms of formation of public opinion in the focus of relations between the Russian and Polish Republics. It is substantiated that the revanchist position of the Polish political elite in its focus on deforming national consciousness and historical memory led not only to the strengthening of anti-Russian sentiments in Polish society, but also to an increase in conflict potential in the East European region. As a result, the author comes to the conclusion that the leading factor in the formation of public opinion in post-socialist Poland in relation to the Russian Federation is the activity of state-public organizations, which act as a channel for the implementation of the concept of “historical policy” of Warsaw in strengthening its geopolitical influence in the space of the former USSR.