The Philippines’ hedging strategy against China in the South China Sea dispute: Based on the human-ocean regional system

Abstract

We constructed an analytical framework and geo-influence model for the South China Sea (SCS) disputes in the context of the human–ocean regional system. Specifically, we used the Goldstein score and the number of mentions of the events in the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone to build a hedging model to portray the evolution of Philippine hedging against China and provided ideas for the response. The results show that, first, the complexity of natural, social, and relational attributes in the geographical system of human–ocean relations profoundly affect the Philippines’ threat perception of China, making it become the root cause of the hedging strategy. The geopolitical influence of the Chinese and American powers in the SCS region and the systemic pressure formed by their competitive game were the direct causes of the Philippines’ hedging strategy. Second, since the 21st century, the evolutionary features of the Philippine hedging pattern against China have been remarkable and can be divided into three phases: cooperative behavior over confrontational behavior (2001–2010), confrontational over cooperative behavior (2010–2016), and moderation of oppositional behavior and decline in cooperative behavior (2016–2022). Finally, China should continue to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with the Philippines in low-political areas such as marine scientific research, marine education, and marine environmental protection. Furthermore, China should shoulder its responsibilities as a major country, actively promote the “Code of Conduct Consultation in the South China Sea”, and continue to strengthen its own maritime strategic determination and planning capacity.