Global Temperature Increase Research Articles

Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Nexus: Evidence from a Maximum Entropy Approach

The connection between Earth’s global temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is one of the highest challenges in climate change science since there is some controversy about the real impact of CO2 emissions on the increase of global temperature. This work contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the relationship between CO2 emissions and the Earth’s global temperature for 61 years, providing a recent review of the emerging literature as well. Through a statistical approach based on maximum entropy, this study supports the results of other techniques that identify a positive impact of CO2 in the increase of the Earth’s global temperature. Given the well-known difficulties in the measurement of global temperature and CO2 emissions with high precision, this statistical approach is particularly appealing around climate change science, as it allows the replication of the original time series with the subsequent construction of confidence intervals for the model parameters. To prevent future risks, besides the present urgent decrease of greenhouse gas emissions, it is necessary to stop using the planet and nature as if resources were infinite.

PELATIHAN KENDALI LAMPU SECARA OTOMATIS UNTUK LAMPU PENERANGAN JALAN DESA SIMPANGAN

Energy that plays an important role in everyday life is electricity. The need for electricity is really important, because most daily devices uses electrical energy. However, the rapid development of technology has increased the use of electrical energy. The current demand for electrical energy is close to the production capacity of electrical energy. Excessive use of electrical energy is one of the triggers for the large increase in electrical energy consumption apart from the increase in new loads by development. The effects of excessive energy use also have an impact on an uncertain climate, and can lead to an increase in global temperatures. Controlling the use of electrical energy needs to be done in an effort to save energy. Efforts to save electricity can be started from controlling the use of electricity in street lighting. Control efforts are carried out by holding community training on the application of automatic light control to be applied to public street lighting. The training includes counseling on the importance of saving electrical energy, introduction to lighting automation systems, introduction to supporting components and assembling automatic lamp control devices. That way, people are able to reduce their consumption of electrical energy by implementing an automatic light control system for street lighting.

Impact of global warming on average annual air temperature in Varaždin

Climate change implies a statistically significant change in the long-term mean state or characteristics of the variability of climate elements. It can be caused by natural and/or anthropogenic factors. Recent global warming is often cited as an example of human-induced climate change. Global warming refers to the increasing trend of the average global surface temperature of the Earth, defined as the global average of the mean annual surface temperature of the ocean, usually to a depth of 30-100 cm, and the mean annual surface temperature of the air above the land at a height of 1-2 m above the ground. In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) established the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which assesses the state of the climate and the risk of climate change caused by human activities.To project climate change, it is necessary to determine the future emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. According to the IPCC, with appropriate scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, an increase in the average global surface temperature of 1.5 °C to 4 °C is predicted by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the trend and variability of the global average of the mean annual surface temperature on Earth and the trend of the mean annual air surface temperature in Varaždin for the period 1949-2021. The results show significant correlations among them because Varaždin is located in an big area of surface air temperature anomalies which has a significant contribution to a global average anomalies in several last decades.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ДИОКСИДА УГЛЕРОДА АНТРОПОГЕННОГО ГЕНЕЗИСА НА ТЕРМИЧЕСКИЙ РЕЖИМ АТМОСФЕРЫ И ЕГО ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ

According to our calculations for the active industrialization period (1959-2021), the content of anthropogenic CO2 (excluding volcanic activity) was no more than 4.1% of its total content in the atmosphere. The carbon dioxide associated with human activity during this period determines an increase in the Earth global temperature by no more than 0.0004°C, against the total temperature increase of 0.81°С. At the same time, the global temperature increase is assumed to be completely determined by the greenhouse effect of our planet only. In connection with results obtained, the conclusions of IPCC on the leading role of the anthropogenic factor in climate warming do not seem convincing. The possibility of realistic forecasting of changes in the CO2 content in the atmosphere based on a simple regression model and a multiblock (linear and non-linear) of the global carbon cycles was assessed. Annual insolation contrast (AIC) was used as a predictor in the regression model. Generally, AIC (according to the areas of heat source and sink) reflects changes in the meridional insolation gradient, which regulates the meridional transfer of radiative heat in the ocean--atmosphere system. Our eight-block model of global circulation included the following blocks: the atmosphere, land biota, humus, inorganic ocean carbon, phytoplankton, dissolved organic matter in the ocean, sedimentary carbonate rocks of the continents, and sedimentary carbonate rocks in the ocean. Linear and non-linear relationships were used to describe global CO2 fluxes from the atmosphere to biota due to net photosynthesis and from the active layer of the ocean to the atmosphere. Carbon penetration into the deep ocean was described by a diffusion equation, and the other fluxes were described by linear relations. The discrepancy between the two independent model (regression and block) forecasts was 1.2% and 0.93% for 2020 and 2030, respectively. The discrepancy between our calculated data and the actual values of CO2 content for 2020 was 0.24% and 0.97% for the block model and the regression model, respectively. The results obtained indicate no need to use any scenario forecasts proposed by IPCC and leading to uncertainty when forecasting global climate changes.

Ascophyllum nodosum and Silicon-Based Biostimulants Differentially Affect the Physiology and Growth of Watermelon Transplants under Abiotic Stress Factors: The Case of Drought

Climate change is an inevitable process characterized by an abrupt increase in global temperature and a decrease in precipitations leading to drought incidents. Biostimulants could be a valuable tool for mitigating these harsh conditions. The objective of our study was to test the efficiency of two biostimulants, a silicon-based seaweed and the seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum, to mitigate the drought stress endured by watermelon transplants during the first few weeks after transplanting. In order to achieve this, three water treatments (100%, 75%, and 50% of field capacity) were applied in pots. Important growth parameters (leaf number, fresh weight, and plant area) deteriorated depending on water availability. This was also the case for the root system development displayed by root dry weight, total length, and surface area. It is the first time the OJIP transient has been evaluated after the application of A. nodosum for drought-stressed plants. Chlorophyll fluorescence parameters showed that the photosynthetic apparatus was more stressed when A. nodosum was applied, especially in the harshest conditions (i.e., 50% field capacity). Overall, the silicon-based biostimulant failed to demonstrate drought-mitigating potential compared to the non-treated counterparts. On the other hand, A. nodosum alleviated the negative effects of water deficit, especially in the harshest conditions.

Global temperature shocks and real exchange rates

We find heterogeneous impulse responses of monthly U.S. dollar (USD) real exchange rates of 76 countries to global temperature shocks. Four years after a positive 1 °C increase in global temperature over its historical average, the Czech Republic currency appreciates by 14.5 percent against the USD while the currency of Burundi depreciates by 4.2 percent. The determinants of response heterogeneity are studied by regressing local projection response coefficients on country characteristics. At the 48 month horizon, a country’s currency more likely to depreciate if the country has grown faster, is more dependent on agriculture and tourism.

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

Agriculture and food security under a changing climate: An underestimated challenge.

Pathways to eradicate global hunger while bending the curve of biodiversity loss unanimously suggest changing to less energy-rich diets, closing yield gaps through agroecological principles, adopting modern breeding technologies to foster stress resilience and yields, as well as minimizing harvest losses and food waste. Against the background of a brief history of global agriculture, we review the available evidence on how the global food system might look given a global temperature increase by 3°. We show that a moderate gain in the area suitable for agriculture is confronted with substantial yield losses through strains on crop physiology, multitrophic interactions, and more frequent extreme events. Self-amplifying feedback are unresolved and might lead to further losses. In light of these uncertainties, we see that complexity is underestimated and more systemic research is needed. Efficiency gains in agriculture, albeit indispensable, will not be enough to achieve food security under severe climate change.

Implementation of REDD+ Policies in Indonesia to Reducing Deforestation Amid Rising Earth’s Temperature

The existence of forests that function as a temperature cooler and a CO2 absorber on earth is seriously threatened due to deforestation that is not decreasing in number but increasing. Many factors cause deforestation, ranging from industrial and new land clearing for plantations. Even without realizing it, massive deforestation is very influential on the global temperature increase, which threatens the safety of residents and other living things on earth. In Indonesia, there is a REDD+ policy prepared by the Ministry of the Environment, which is a step to reduce the effects of greenhouse gases due to deforestation. This study aims to analyze in depth the implementation of REDD+ policies in Indonesia and examine how these policies develop against the reality of forest conditions in Indonesia today. This research is a descriptive study using the literature study method, where data collection regarding current REDD+ and deforestation policies in Indonesia is then carried out by searching for data and information through documents, photos, pictures, written, and unwritten documents that can support writing. This study finds that the implementation of REDD+ policies has a significant impact on reducing deforestation and forest sustainability in Indonesia.

Technological avenues and market mechanisms to accelerate methane and nitrous oxide emissions reductions.

Strategies targeting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are critical to meeting global climate targets. Existing literature estimates the emissions of these gases from specific sectors, but this knowledge must be synthesized to prioritize and incentivize CH4 and N2O mitigation. Accordingly, we review emissions sources and mitigation strategies in all key sectors (fuel extraction and combustion, landfilling, agriculture, wastewater treatment, and chemical industry) and the role of carbon markets in reducing emissions. The most accessible reduction opportunities are in the hydrocarbon extraction and waste sectors, where half (>3 Gt-CO2e/year) of the emissions in these sectors could be mitigated at no net cost. In total, 60% of CH4 emissions can be mitigated at less than $50/t-CO2. Expanding the scope of carbon markets to include these emissions could provide cost-effective decarbonization through 2050. We provide recommendations for carbon markets to improve emissions reductions and set prices to appropriately incentivize mitigation.

The Paris Agreement and Climate Justice: Inequitable Impacts of Sea Level Rise Associated With Temperature Targets

AbstractAnthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing unprecedented changes to the climate. In 2015, at the United Nations (UN) Conference of the Parties in Paris, France, countries agreed to limit the global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Due to the long‐term irreversibility of sea level rise (SLR), risks to island and coastal populations are not well encapsulated by the goal of limiting GMT warming by 2100. This review article investigates the climate justice implications of temperature targets in light of our increasing understanding of the spatially variable impact and long temporal commitment to rising seas. In particular we highlight the impact that SLR will have on island states and the role of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in UN climate negotiations. As a case study we review dual impacts from the Antarctic Ice Sheet under a changing climate: (a) recent climate and ice sheet modeling shows that Antarctic melt has the potential to cause rapid SLR with a distinct spatial pattern leading to AOSIS nations experiencing SLR at least 11% higher than the global average and up to 33% higher; and (b) future ice sheet melt will result in a negative feedback on GMT, thus delaying temperature rise. When considering these impacts in conjunction, justice concerns associated with the Paris Agreement are exacerbated.

On-Chip Frequency Tuning of Fast Resonant MEMS Scanner

The development and characterisation of a piezoelectric actuated high-frequency MEMS scanning mirror with on-chip frequency tuning capability is reported. The resonant scanner operates at frequencies in excess of 140 kHz, generating scan angles of 10° and 6° for two orthogonal movement modes with 40 V actuation. On-chip frequency tuning is achieved through electrothermal actuators fabricated adjacent to the mirror main suspension. The electrothermal actuators produce a global and local temperature increase which changes the suspension stiffness and therefore the resonant frequency. A resonance frequency tuning range of up to 5.5 kHz is achieved, with tuning dominant on only one of the two orthogonal scan movement modes. This opens the possibility for precise tuning of a 2D Lissajous scan pattern using a single resonant MEMS scanner with dual orthogonal resonant modes producing full frame update rates up to 20 kHz while retaining the full angular range of both resonant movement modes.

Invited review: Current enteric methane mitigation options.

Ruminant livestock are an important source of anthropogenic methane (CH4). Decreasing the emissions of enteric CH4 from ruminant production is strategic to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C by 2050. Research in the area of enteric CH4 mitigation has grown exponentially in the last 2 decades, with various strategies for enteric CH4 abatement being investigated: production intensification, dietary manipulation (including supplementation and processing of concentrates and lipids, and management of forage and pastures), rumen manipulation (supplementation of ionophores, 3-nitrooxypropanol, macroalgae, alternative electron acceptors, and phytochemicals), and selection of low-CH4-producing animals. Other enteric CH4 mitigation strategies are at earlier stages of research but rapidly developing. Herein, we discuss and analyze the current status of available enteric CH4 mitigation strategies with an emphasis on opportunities and barriers to their implementation in confined and partial grazing production systems, and in extensive and fully grazing production systems. For each enteric CH4 mitigation strategy, we discuss its effectiveness to decrease total CH4 emissions and emissions on a per animal product basis, safety issues, impacts on the emissions of other greenhouse gases, as well as other economic, regulatory, and societal aspects that are key to implementation. Most research has been conducted with confined animals, and considerably more research is needed to develop, adapt, and evaluate antimethanogenic strategies for grazing systems. In general, few options are currently available for extensive production systems without feed supplementation. Continuous research and development are needed to develop enteric CH4 mitigation strategies that are locally applicable. Information is needed to calculate carbon footprints of interventions on a regional basis to evaluate the impact of mitigation strategies on net greenhouse gas emissions. Economically affordable enteric CH4 mitigation solutions are urgently needed. Successful implementation of safe and effective antimethanogenic strategies will also require delivery mechanisms and adequate technical support for producers, as well as consumer involvement and acceptance. The most appropriate metrics should be used in quantifying the overall climate outcomes associated with mitigation of enteric CH4 emissions. A holistic approach is required, and buy-in is needed at all levels of the supply chain.

A policy perspective on Nova Scotia's plans to reduce dependency on fossil fuels for electricity generation and improve air quality

Installed capacity of renewable resources to generate electricity is increasing globally. The global share of renewables is expected to grow sharply in the next decade by replacing fossil fuel-fired power generating stations with hydropower, wind, and solar generation. This increasing trend will help reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and contribute to limit the global temperature increase by 1.5 °C. Nova Scotia, Canada, is committed to follow this trend by closing the remaining coal-fired power plants by 2030, although it still relies heavily on coal as its major fuel for electricity generation and failed to meet renewable electricity generation targets of 40% in 2020. Although Nova Scotia is still committed to meet a supply of 80% renewables in less than ten years, it is not clear how this will be achieved. This short review analyzes the provincial plan to reduce dependency on coal and provides an overview of recent developments in policies to reduce air emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Existing monitoring and reporting programs revealed that provincial air emission caps on the electricity sector resulted in a reduction of more than 50% emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides from 2002 to 2020. These annual caps, which will be progressively reduced until 2025, have already proven to be an effective strategy to reduce harmful air emissions from power stations in the province. However, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM), two harmful air pollutants also relevant to the electricity sector, are not yet regulated by provincial policy. This review recommends a revision in the monitoring and reporting programs and transition to renewables to reduce air pollution. • Nova Scotia, Canada relies heavily on fossil fuels to generate electricity. • Fossil fuel combustion contributes to air pollution globally and in Nova Scotia. • Nova Scotia has committed to close all coal plants by 2030, but implementation is unclear. • Emission caps have helped reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides from 2002 to 2020. • Transition to renewables is recommended to reduce air pollution.

A Review on Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of Industrial Amine Absorber Columns for CO2 Capture

AbstractCO2 emission is an important environmental issue leading to global climate change, notably an increase in global temperatures; therefore, it is so imperative to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Absorption columns using amine‐based solutions are a promising approach for CO2 removal from industrial gas streams. Many modeling and simulation research have been performed on CO2 absorption columns in which computational fluid dynamics (CFD) strategy is very appropriate and well‐known. As CFD modeling and simulation is a fast‐developing method, the most recent review papers do not include the core research in this field of study. In this study, numerical simulations of CO2 absorption columns using CFD strategy have been carried out applying various types of amine‐based solutions. Furthermore, the effect of various types of packing mesh generation on the absorption columns' efficiency was studied. Investigation of synergetic influence such as application of various nanoparticles in different amine‐based solutionsand activators, double diameter packed bed absorption columns with different packings, rotating packed columns with double diameter are proposed for future studies.

Near-term regional climate change in East Africa

In the coming few decades, projected increases in global temperature and humidity are generally expected to exacerbate human exposure to climate extremes (e.g., humid-heat and rainfall extremes). Despite the growing risk of humid-heat stress (measured by wet-bulb temperature), it has received less attention in East Africa, where arid and semi-arid climatic conditions prevail. Moreover, no consensus has yet been reached across models regarding future changes in rainfall over this region. Here, we screen Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 and use, for boundary conditions, simulations from only those GCMs that simulate successfully recent climatic trends. Based on these GCMs and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, we project that annual mean temperature is likely to rise by 2 ℃ toward midcentury (2021–2050) ​at a faster rate than the global average (about 1.5 ℃), under the RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, associated with more frequent and severe climate extremes. In particular, low-lying regions in East Africa will be vulnerable to severe heat stress, with an extreme wet-bulb temperature approaching or exceeding the US National Weather Service’s extreme danger threshold of 31 ℃. On the other hand, population centers in the highlands of Ethiopia will receive significantly more precipitation during the autumn season and will see more extreme rainfall events, with implications for flooding and agriculture. The robustness of these results across all GCM and RCM simulations, and for both of CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks (CMIP: Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project) supports the reliability of these future projections. Our simulations of near-term climate change impacts are designed to inform the development of sound adaptation strategies for the region.

Recent Advances Toward Transparent Methane Emissions Monitoring: A Review.

Given that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be immediately reduced to avoid drastic increases in global temperature, methane emissions have been placed center stage in the fight against climate change. Methane has a significantly larger warming potential than carbon dioxide. A large percentage of methane emissions are in the form of industry emissions, some of which can now be readily identified and mitigated. This review considers recent advances in methane detection that allow accurate and transparent monitoring, which are needed for reducing uncertainty in source attribution and evaluating progress in emissions reductions. A particular focus is on complementary methods operating at different scales with applications for the oil and gas industry, allowing rapid detection of large point sources and addressing inconsistencies of emissions inventories. Emerging airborne and satellite imaging spectrometers are advancing our understanding and offer new top-down assessment methods to complement bottom-up methods. Successfully merging estimates across scales is vital for increased certainty regarding greenhouse gas emissions and can inform regulatory decisions. The development of comprehensive, transparent, and spatially resolved top-down and bottom-up inventories will be crucial for holding nations accountable for their climate commitments.

Unmasking the Effects of Aerosols on Greenhouse Warming Over Europe

AbstractAerosol optical thickness (AOT) has decreased substantially in Europe in the summer half year (April–September) since 1980, with almost a 50% reduction in Central and Eastern Europe, according to Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA‐2) reanalysis. At the same time, strong positive trends in ERA5 reanalysis surface solar radiation downward for all‐sky and clear‐sky conditions (SSRD and SSRDc, respectively) and temperature at 2 m are found for Europe in summer during the period 1979–2020. The GEBA observations show as well strong increases in SSRD during the latest four decades. Estimations of changes in SSRDc, using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model, show similarly strong increases when fed by MERRA‐2 AOT. The estimates of warming in this study, caused by increases in SSRD and SSRDc, are based on energy budget approximations and the Stefan Boltzmann law. The increases in near surface temperature, estimated both for clear‐sky and all‐sky conditions, are up to about 1°C for Central and Eastern Europe. The total warming over large parts of this region for clear‐sky conditions is however nearly double the global mean temperature increase of 1.1°C, while somewhat less for all‐sky conditions. The effects of aerosols on warming over the southerly Iberian Peninsula are weaker compared to countries further north. The rapid total warming over the Iberian Peninsula is probably caused by greenhouse warming, drier surface conditions, and to some degree decline in aerosols. Reduced cloud cover is found for large parts of Europe in summer during the latest four decades.

A Technical Review of Direct Air Capture using Inorganic Sorbents.

Spearheaded by the industrial revolution anthropogenic CO2 emission has been on the rise since the 18th century AD. This upsurge in the CO2 concentration has led to the increase in global temperatures and has elicited climate change whose complete repercussions are yet unknown. There is unanimity of the scientific community on the fact that the continuous rise of CO2 has to be subdued in order to curb the global increase of temperature. Reductions in the concentration of the carbon dioxide can be brought about by capture of CO2 emitted by large point sources and CO2 capture directly from the atmosphere. The capture of carbon dioxide is carried out by the help of sorbents that bind to the CO2 and then separating this CO2 by regenerating the sorbent which is again cycled through the same procedure. In this review we shall focus our attention on the inorganic sorbents utilized for direct capture of carbon dioxide from the ambient air. We shall do a comprehensive in-depth study and comparison of the efficacy of different sorbents, their industrial designs while taking a brief look at the limited array of technoeconomic analyses present on Direct Air Capture. However, it is important to note that development must be done to produce newer next generation materials to deploy DAC as a climate change mitigation technology on an industrial scale and to make a move towards achieving net zero emissions.

Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming.

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.