ВЛИЯНИЕ ДИОКСИДА УГЛЕРОДА АНТРОПОГЕННОГО ГЕНЕЗИСА НА ТЕРМИЧЕСКИЙ РЕЖИМ АТМОСФЕРЫ И ЕГО ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ

Abstract

According to our calculations for the active industrialization period (1959-2021), the content of anthropogenic CO2 (excluding volcanic activity) was no more than 4.1% of its total content in the atmosphere. The carbon dioxide associated with human activity during this period determines an increase in the Earth global temperature by no more than 0.0004°C, against the total temperature increase of 0.81°С. At the same time, the global temperature increase is assumed to be completely determined by the greenhouse effect of our planet only. In connection with results obtained, the conclusions of IPCC on the leading role of the anthropogenic factor in climate warming do not seem convincing. The possibility of realistic forecasting of changes in the CO2 content in the atmosphere based on a simple regression model and a multiblock (linear and non-linear) of the global carbon cycles was assessed. Annual insolation contrast (AIC) was used as a predictor in the regression model. Generally, AIC (according to the areas of heat source and sink) reflects changes in the meridional insolation gradient, which regulates the meridional transfer of radiative heat in the ocean--atmosphere system. Our eight-block model of global circulation included the following blocks: the atmosphere, land biota, humus, inorganic ocean carbon, phytoplankton, dissolved organic matter in the ocean, sedimentary carbonate rocks of the continents, and sedimentary carbonate rocks in the ocean. Linear and non-linear relationships were used to describe global CO2 fluxes from the atmosphere to biota due to net photosynthesis and from the active layer of the ocean to the atmosphere. Carbon penetration into the deep ocean was described by a diffusion equation, and the other fluxes were described by linear relations. The discrepancy between the two independent model (regression and block) forecasts was 1.2% and 0.93% for 2020 and 2030, respectively. The discrepancy between our calculated data and the actual values of CO2 content for 2020 was 0.24% and 0.97% for the block model and the regression model, respectively. The results obtained indicate no need to use any scenario forecasts proposed by IPCC and leading to uncertainty when forecasting global climate changes.