Global Temperature Increase Research Articles

Different trends of vegetation activity over northern extratropics during two multidecadal warming periods in the 20th century

There have been two periods (1916–1945 and 1982–2014) of rapid and comparable rates (0.054 °C/year vs. 0.055 °C/year) of increase in Global Mean Temperature (GMT). However, little is known about different trends in vegetation activity over the northern extratropics during these two periods, especially for vegetation dynamics in response to the earlier global warming in the 20th century. In this study, we find that although the global warming rates are comparable between the two warming periods, regional warming over the northern extratopics has significant differences. Meanwhile, vegetation greening trends are significantly different, with the latter period being 3–4 times greater than the former. Further analysis of the leading causes reveals that the impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on regional climate are critical to these differences. In 1916–1945, the in-phase combination of AMO and PDO offsets each other's impact on the climate factors and weakens the greening trend, while in 1982–2014, the effects of AMO and PDO are synergetic for the out-of-phase combination and enhance the greening trend. Our findings highlight the role of internal climate variability in modulating vegetation dynamics under global warming and suggest that future projections of vegetation change may be improved by considering decadal and multidecadal climate oscillations.

Determination of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from the 16U CubeSat Spacecraft Using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy.

Greenhouse gases absorb the Earth's thermal radiation and partially return it to the Earth's surface. When accumulated in the atmosphere, greenhouse gases lead to an increase in the average global air temperature and, as a result, climate change. In this paper, an approach to measuring CO2 and CH4 concentrations using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) is proposed. An FTIR spectrometer mockup, operating in the wavelength range from 1.0 to 1.7 μm with a spectral resolution of 10 cm-1, is described. The results of CO2 and CH4 observations throughout a day in urban conditions are presented. A low-resolution FTIR spectrometer for the 16U CubeSat spacecraft is described. The FTIR spectrometer has a 2.0-2.4 μm spectral range for CO2 and CH4 bands, a 0.75-0.80 μm range for reference O2 bands, an input field of view of 10-2 rad and a spectral resolution of 2 cm-1. The capabilities of the 16U CubeSat spacecraft for remote sensing of greenhouse gas emissions using a developed FTIR spectrometer are discussed. The design of a 16U CubeSat spacecraft equipped with a compact, low-resolution FTIR spectrometer is presented.

Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi as a Plant Growth Stimulant in a Tomato and Onion Intercropping System

Climate change has challenged large-scale crop production at a global level. Global temperature increases, water scarcity, and a further reduction in cultivable land resources due to anthropogenic impacts have resulted in the need to redesign agricultural systems such as intercropping to maximize the efficient use of natural resources. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) represent an underexplored area, not only in terms of an alternative to the heavy use of chemical fertilizers, but also as a natural resource used to enhance physiological processes and mitigate the variations in biotic and abiotic factors in plants. On the other hand, the combined use of AMF with suitable but cheaper and environmentally friendly growth substrates is another way to maximize crop production. A study was carried out in a tomato and onion intercropped pattern system to analyze the above- and belowground implications of two AMF commercial products containing Rhizophagus irregularis, propagated in soil and with an in vitro technique addition, with two different mixed growth substrates (river sand and compost) under greenhouse conditions. Overall, both AMF products overall showed significant promoting effects on plant growth (15–30%) and root parameters (50%) in the tomato and onion plants on the sand-mixed substrate. Moreover, the soil-propagated AMF also showed significant positive effects on chlorophyll content (35%), photosynthetic activity, and the accumulation of macro- and micronutrients, especially the Fe and Mn contents (60–80%) in the tomato plants. We present evidence of the benefits to plant performance due to the interactive effects between AMF and the growth substrate, and these positive effects might be due to the intercropping system. Hence, soil-propagated Rhizophagus irregularis is represented here as a promising candidate for enhancing growth, sustainability, and productivity under greenhouse conditions.

Methodology for Evaluating the CO2 Sequestration Capacity of Waste Ashes.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is constantly increasing, leading to an increase in the average global temperature and, thus, affecting climate change. Hence, various initiatives have been proposed to mitigate this process, among which CO2 sequestration is a technically simple and efficient approach. The spontaneous carbonation of ashes with atmospheric CO2 is very slow, and this is why accelerated carbonation is encouraged. However, not all ashes are equally suitable for this process, so a methodology to evaluate their potential should be developed. Such a methodology involves a combination of techniques, from theoretical calculations to XRF, XRD, DTA-TG, and the calcimetric determination of the CaCO3 content. The present study followed the approach of exposing ashes to accelerated carbonation conditions (4% v/v CO2, 50-55% and 80-85% RH, 20 °C) in a closed carbonation chamber for different periods of time until the maximum CO2 uptake is reached. The amount of sequestered CO2 was quantified by thermogravimetry. The results show that the highest CO2 sequestration capacity (33.8%) and carbonation efficiency (67.9%) were obtained for wood biomass bottom ash. This method was applied to eight combustion ashes and could serve to evaluate other ashes or comparable carbon storage materials.

Carbon footprints in minimally invasive surgery: Good patient outcomes, but costly for the environment.

Advancements in technology and surgical training programs have increased the adaptability of minimally invasive surgery (MIS). Gastrointestinal MIS is superior to its open counterparts regarding post-operative morbidity and mortality. MIS has become the first-line surgical intervention for some types of gastrointestinal surgery, such as laparoscopic cholecystectomy and appendicectomy. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main gas used for insufflation in MIS. CO2 contributes 9%-26% of the greenhouse effect, resulting in global warming. The rise in global CO2 concentration since 2000 is about 20 ppm per decade, up to 10 times faster than any sustained rise in CO2 during the past 800000 years. Since 1970, there has been a steady yet worrying increase in average global temperature by 1.7 °C per century. A recent systematic review of the carbon footprint in MIS showed a range of 6-814 kg of CO2 emission per surgery, with higher CO2 emission following robotic compared to laparoscopic surgery. However, with superior benefits of MIS over open surgery, this poses an ethical dilemma to surgeons. A recent survey in the United Kingdom of 130 surgeons showed that the majority (94%) were concerned with climate change but felt that the lack of leadership was a barrier to improving environmental sustainability. Given the deleterious environmental effects of MIS, this study aims to summarize the trends of MIS and its carbon footprint, awareness and attitudes towards this issue, and efforts and challenges to ensuring environmental sustainability.

Response of Tropical Overshooting Deep Convection to Global Warming Based on Global Cloud‐Resolving Model Simulations

AbstractTropical overshooting deep convections (ODCs) play a vital role in vertical transport of boundary layer pollutants, especially short‐lived species, to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, with important implications for stratospheric ozone and climate. We use simulations from a global cloud‐system resolving model, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmosphere Model (NICAM), to study ODC changes from historical period to the end of the 21st century. NICAM well reproduces Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐satellite observed ODC spatiotemporal patterns. The future occurrences of ODCs with cloud top height above 15.5, 16.9, and 18.4 km scaled by the global temperature increase will increase by 7%/K, 27%/K, and 90%/K, respectively, over ocean where the atmosphere is becoming warmer and wetter. The corresponding changes are −1%/K, 10%/K, and 37%/K over land where the atmosphere will become hotter but drier. Relative to tropical cold point tropopause height, ODCs will only change by 3%/K, with 6%/K over the ocean but −3%/K on land.

Influence of temperature on larval development of Pleurodema diplolister (amphibia, anura, leptodactylidae)

The population fluctuations of amphibians were correlated with climatic changes, and among the aspects listed the global temperature change was one of the highlights. We submitted tadpoles of Pleurodema diplolister to aquatic thermal variations to establish the thermal limit that implies the direct influence of temperature on larval development, as could occur in the global temperature change. Natural lentic environments were monitored in a way to acquire the mean temperature of the water in an annual (tolerant) average (31°C) and in the reproduction (optimal) period (27°C) of the frogs. In lab conditions the tadpoles’ development were tested in four different temperatures: 20°C, 27°C, 31°C, and 40°C, corresponding to minimal, optimal, tolerant, and maximum temperatures, respectively. The survival time was established by the Kaplan-Meier method. The data were tested by the Chi-square test to establish the adherence of the results. The success rate calculated for 20°C temperature was 3.69%, at 27°C it was 62.33%, at 31°C it was 68% and at 40°C it was 1.35%. This demonstrates that there is an optimal temperature of larval development with a tolerance zone around it, which indicates that an increase in global temperature, immediately, will not stop the reproduction of this species.

Pembuatan Purwarupa Alat Ukur Konsentrasi CO2 Berbasis NodeMCU ESP8266

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in an increase in global temperatures. Unfortunately, this knowledge is not yet widely known among the general public. Therefore, providing information on daily CO2 levels can serve as a means to educate and raise awareness about the dangers associated with CO2 levels. To simplify access to CO2 concentration information, a prototype of a CO2 concentration measurement device based on the NodeMCU ESP8266 microcontroller, which can be connected to Wi-Fi, has been developed. To ensure data accuracy, the CO2 measurement device was calibrated using the NodeMCU ESP8266 microcontroller and data from an outdoor CO2 monitoring instrument at the BRIN (BPAA Pontianak) office, with an error value of 4.08%. The collected data from this device can be accessed through the Blynk application or a Google Sheets link. The test results demonstrate that the device can provide CO2 concentration levels with higher readings in areas characterized by high vehicle traffic, smoking, combustion activities, or a crowd of people.

Improving modelled albedo over the Greenland ice sheet through parameter optimisation and MODIS snow albedo retrievals

Abstract. Greenland ice sheet mass loss continues to accelerate as global temperatures increase. The surface albedo of the ice sheet determines the amount of absorbed solar energy, which is a key factor in driving surface snow and ice melting. Satellite-retrieved snow albedo allows us to compare and optimise modelled albedo over the entirety of the ice sheet. We optimise the parameters of the albedo scheme in the ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) land surface model for 3 random years taken over the 2000–2017 period and validate over the remaining years. In particular, we want to improve the albedo at the edges of the ice sheet, since they correspond to ablation areas and show the greatest variations in runoff and surface mass balance. By giving a larger weight to points at the ice sheet's edge, we improve the model–data fit by reducing the root-mean-square deviation by over 25 % for the whole ice sheet for the summer months. This improvement is consistent for all years, even those not used in the calibration step. We also show the optimisation successfully improves the model–data fit at 87.5 % of in situ sites from the PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet) network. We conclude by showing which additional model outputs are impacted by changes to the albedo parameters, encouraging future work using multiple data streams when optimising these parameters.

Radiative Forcing From the 2014–2022 Volcanic and Wildfire Injections

AbstractVolcanic and wildfire events between 2014 and 2022 injected ∼3.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide and 0.8 Tg of smoke aerosols into the stratosphere. With injections at higher altitudes and lower latitudes, the simulated stratospheric lifetime of the 2014–2022 injections is about 50% longer than the volcanic 2005–2013 injections. The simulated global mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 2014–2022 is −0.18 W m−2, ∼40% of the ERF of the period of 1991–1999 with a large‐magnitude volcanic eruption (Pinatubo). Our climate model suggests that the stratospheric smoke aerosols generate ∼60% more negative ERF than volcanic sulfate per unit aerosol optical depth. Studies that fail to account for the different radiative properties of wildfire smoke relative to volcanic sulfate will likely underestimate the negative stratospheric forcings. Our analysis suggests that stratospheric injections offset 20% of the increase in global mean surface temperature between 2014–2022 and 1999–2002.

Achieving near-zero carbon dioxide emissions from energy use: The case of Sri Lanka

Signatories to the Paris Agreement are to achieve net zero Green House Gas (GHG) emissions during the half-century to pursue the efforts limiting global average temperature increase by 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. This study models ambitious to challenging scenarios involving energy demand and supply side actions for energy system transition toward net-zero for Sri Lanka. To analyze these scenarios a least cost optimization-based bottom-up type energy system model was developed from 2015 to 2050. A Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four countermeasure (CM) scenarios termed Plausible, Ambitious, Challenging, and Stringent were developed. Four different carbon tax rates were used to fathom the level of carbon tax needed to achieve net-zero emissions. The CM scenarios were formulated considering different technology options and policy measures such as the diffusion of efficient technologies, availability of renewable energy sources, use of cleaner fuels, the introduction of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technologies, and green hydrogen for power generation. The result of this study reveals that the stringent scenario which includes aggressive policy measures in both the energy supply and demand sectors, such as nuclear, and renewable energy for power generation, diffusion of efficient Enduse devices, fuel switching, including the introduction of electric cars, and increased share for public transport achieves the near carbon-neutral scenario at a carbon tax trajectory of 32 US$/tCO2 in 2020 and 562US$/tCO2 in 2050. The Net Energy Import Dependency (NEID) of the country decreases to 13 % in 2050 compared to that of the BAU scenario (65 %) under the near carbon neutral scenario, which is a positive sign from the energy security perspective.

Rheumatology congresses post COVID-19: we cannot regress.

Rheumatology congresses post COVID-19: we cannot regress.

Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2-degree and food-secure world

Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability-oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the implementation of the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We designed two ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide nature's contributions to people (NCP), while also limiting global warming below 2 degrees and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline. We found that the HE strategy performs generally better for terrestrial biodiversity (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Area of Habitat, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) in currently still natural regions. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, for freshwater biodiversity and for regulating NCP (pest control, pollination, erosion control, water quality). However, both strategies were insufficient to restore biodiversity and corresponded with considerable increases in food security risks and global temperature. Only when we combined the conservation strategies with a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, including climate change mitigation and reductions of food waste and animal product consumption, our scenarios resulted in a restoration of biodiversity and NCP while keeping global warming below two degrees and food security risks below the baseline projection.

Effect of climate change on road traffic accidents in the UAE: a narrative review

Road traffic accidents (RTA) is a major cause of death and disability all over the world. It is the leading cause of death in children and young adults aged 5-29 years. Worldwide, it is a growing public health concern as, approximately, 1.3 million people die every year due to RTA. It is also taxing on a country’s GDP as at least 3% of the GDP is spent on RTA’s annually. In 2020, there were 3.14 deaths per 100,000 in the UAE and this number increased by 20% in 2021. It also happens to be the second highest cause of death after cardiovascular diseases. There are many factors like speeding, driving under the influence, distracted driving, nonuse of seatbelts etc. which can cause accidents. Weather phenomenon is an overlooked factor which can cause an increase in the number of RTAs. Climate change has resulted in a global increase of temperature and an increase in weird weather phenomenon like increased rainfall, fog, smog, snowfall etc. Very limited studies have been conducted to see the relationship between the two and none have been conducted in the UAE. This review was done based on articles selected from PubMed and SpringerLink, to see whether the results could be applicable in this region. In countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, increased rainfall and fog has resulted in an increase in the number of fatal accidents whereas in the USA, it was observed that the warmer temperatures have resulted in a higher number of fatal accidents. Hence, there is a need to assess the impact of climate change on RTA.

Effect of risk perception and vulnerability on adaptive architecture in flood resilience: a case from Ratnapura, Sri Lanka

In the last few decades, the frequency and severity of floods in South Asia have vastly increased due to the increase in global surface temperature and change in rainfall patterns. The lack of risk perception, high vulnerability and lack of proper architectural adaptations have added to the negative consequences of disasters. This study discusses the effect of risk perception and vulnerability on flood resilient architecture. The research was conducted with 35 participants selected from the Mudduwa area in Rathnapura, Sri Lanka where the annual flood frequency and damage is very high. The collected data was analyzed using statistical software to calculate a composite mean score to each theoretical factor risk perception, vulnerability, and architectural adaptation. With assumptions, a non-parametric correlation test was carried out to identify the relationship between the three theoretical factors and their subsequent variables. The research findings concluded that risk perception has a positive correlation with architectural adaptation, but vulnerability demonstrates a negative correlation. According to the study, vulnerability acts as a resistance to the correlation between risk perception and architectural adaptation. In conclusion this study elaborates on the importance of a proper system of adaptation for vulnerable people living in flood prone areas.

Features of the formation of the coasts of Chukotka and the Koryak highlands

Long-term expeditionary studies of the Geography Faculty of Lomonosov Moscow State University of the Arctic coast of Russia (1969 – 2015) have provided extensive material on hydrology, channel morphodynamics and geomorphology of the estuaries of large rivers from the Northern Dvina to the Kolyma. The joint work of the Moscow State University and the M. K. Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University made it possible to signifiantly expand the geography of research to the coasts of the Chukchi and Bering Seas. Based on the analysis of geological and geomorphological data and an array of published and archival materials, it was possible to establish patterns and specifi features of coastal and estuarine processes in the fial phase of stabilization of the post-glacial ocean transgression. Over the past 7-5 thousand years, floding of low-lying hilly coastal plains, river valleys and fjords has occurred. The active impact of the wave activity of the sea led to the erosion of the upper part of the underwater slope, the restructuring of its profie and the retreat of accumulative forms towards the land and the creation of modern outlines of the coastline. The sections of the coast extended into the sea, composed by a thickness of loose quaternary sediments, were partially eroded by waves, and sediments were involved in longitudinal and transverse movements, forming braids and embankments, which led to a general alignment of the coastline. Currently, in conditions of rising sea levels, the general trend towards the restructuring of the underwater slope and the coastal zone persists and can be extremely dangerous for coasts composed of strongly icy sandy-loamy alluvial-lacustrine deposits. A further increase in global temperature will signifiantly soften the climate of the Arctic coasts, cause the degradation of permafrost, thawing of underground ice and accelerate the process of retreat of coastal abrasion ledges, the sea edge of river deltas. Taking into account the regional geological and geomorphological features of the coasts of the Chukchi and Bering Seas, it should be expected that a possible rise in sea level will lead to thawing and degradation of permafrost rocks and vein ice.

Revealing effective regional decarbonisation measures to limit global temperature increase in uncertain transition scenarios with machine learning techniques

Climate change mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models have been extensively used to support climate change negotiations on the global stage. To date, most studies exploring ensembles of these scenarios focus on the global picture, with more limited attention to regional metrics. A systematic approach is still lacking to improve the understanding of regional heterogeneity, highlighting key regional decarbonisation measures and their relative importance for meeting global climate goals under deep uncertainty. This study proposes a novel approach to gaining robust insights into regional decarbonisation strategies using machine learning techniques based on the IPCC SR1.5 scenario database. Random forest analysis first reveals crucial metrics to limit global temperature increases. Logistic regression modelling and the patient rule induction method are then used to identify which of these metrics and their combinations are most influential in meeting climate goals below 2 °C or below 1.5 °C. Solar power and sectoral electrification across all regions have been found to be the most effective measures to limit temperature increases. To further limit increase below 1.5 °C and not only 2 °C, decommissioning of unabated gas plants should be prioritised along with energy efficiency improvements. Bioenergy and wind power show higher regional heterogeneity in limiting temperature increases, with lower influences than aforementioned measures, and are especially relevant in Latin America (bioenergy) and countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Former Soviet Union (bioenergy and wind). In the future, a larger scenario ensemble can be applied to reveal more robust and comprehensive insights.

Who pays the bill? Climate change, taxes, and transfers in a multi-region growth model

This paper presents a quantitative study of a dynamic climate-economy model with multiple regions to evaluate how implementing an optimal climate tax affects production, emissions, and welfare in each region. We develop a numerical algorithm which is generally applicable to compute equilibria in the presence of arbitrarily many regions and under alternative climate policies. Our simulation model distinguishes six major world regions and incorporates a wide array of regional heterogeneities including a detailed description of the energy production process in each region. We also quantify the full range of Pareto-improving transfers under which each region has an incentive to join the global climate agreement. Our results show that optimal taxation reduces coal consumption in each region substantially by about 70% and leads to higher GDP within the next 100 years in most regions. The only exception is China which suffers losses in GDP for the next 130 years due to its strong dependence on coal and must be incentivized via transfer payments to implement the optimal tax. We also show that the increase in global temperature under optimal taxation is compatible with the two-degree target.

Multi-proxy validation of glacial-interglacial rainfall variations in southwest Sulawesi

Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical paleoclimatology. Here, we present paired multi-proxy geochemical measurements for stalagmites from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, and confirm changes in rainfall amount across ice age terminations. Collectively, the stalagmites span two glacial-interglacial transitions from ~380,000 to 330,000 and 230,000 to 170,000 years ago. Mg/Ca in the slow-growing stalagmites is affected by water moving through the karst and prior calcite precipitation, making it a good proxy for changes in local rainfall. When paired, Mg/Ca and δ18O corroborate prominent shifts from drier glacials to wetter interglacials in the core of the Australasian monsoon domain. These shifts in rainfall occur 4,000-7,000 years later than glacial-interglacial increases in global temperature and the associated response of Sulawesi vegetation, determined by speleothem δ13C.

Unraveling candidate genes related to heat tolerance and immune response traits in some native sheep using whole genome sequencing data

BackgroundIn the sheep breeding industry, heat stress caused by the general increase in global temperature has become a significant issue, having both direct and indirect effects on animal health and productivity. The identification of effective pathways for responding to heat stress and immune responses, as well as the discovery of related genes, can improve the production and sustainability of genetic diversity in this area. In this study, we used nucleotide diversity (θπ) and FST statistical measurements to analyze the genomic data of the native Iranian sheep in order to find potential genes related to heat adaptation and immune response. We also compared the whole genome sequencing data of 29 indigenous Iranian sheep (the Afshari, Ghezel, Makuei, Moghani, Shal, Zel, Karakul, Grey-Shiraz, Baluchi, and Kermani breeds) with a number of other sheep breeds from Asia (n = 28), Europe (n = 28), and Africa (n = 25) to evaluate the genetic structure of the Iranian sheep population. The resultsThe results from the sheep population genetic analysis showed a clear separation between different populations that corresponds well with their geographic origins. Iranian sheep were further divided into a southern and a northern group, which coincided with the most prominent climatic division in Iran. Our search to identify potential genomic regions under selection showed several candidate genes involved in (1) response to heat stress (SIK2, FER, ATP1A1, CDK5RAP3, and TLR4), (2) immune response in hot and dry environments (CD109, CR2, EOMES, and MARCHF1), (3) response to drought stress and adaptation to desert areas (ZFP1, PLCB1, and PDGFD), and also (4) response to heat stress by controlling digestive metabolism (HTR4, TRHDE, and ALDH1A3). ConclusionsThe findings of this study may aid in our understanding of the molecular processes by which tiny ruminants adapt to hot, dry environments. In addition to the results of earlier studies, our findings also revealed a number of novel candidate genes related to heat adaptation. These genes will be valuable for future studies to choose livestock breeds that live in desert regions.