Hurricane-prone Areas Research Articles

When Climate Mitigation Meets the Needs of Adaptation: Closing the Resilience Gap for EV Charging Services in Hurricane-Prone Areas

When Climate Mitigation Meets the Needs of Adaptation: Closing the Resilience Gap for EV Charging Services in Hurricane-Prone Areas

Understanding the Utilization of Real-Time Traffic Information during Hurricane Evacuations in Texas

Understanding how evacuees use real-time traffic information is crucial for developing effective emergency evacuation response plans for hurricane-prone areas. This paper investigates how such data were used during past hurricane evacuations and post-evacuation returns in Texas with a survey dataset collected between August 2022 and February 2023. We examined the usage patterns of various platforms, including navigation apps, social media, TV, radio, and information provided by public agencies. We found that a larger household size, longer distance to evacuation destinations, and past experience with hurricane evacuations are associated with greater use of real-time information platforms. Experienced evacuees tend to rely on navigation apps and social media, and those with experience before 2010 are more inclined to use the TV and radio as their primary sources of information. Motivation for using these platforms varies among users of different platforms. Although both navigation app users and social media users value their familiarity with the platform, the former also prioritize the convenience of using it. It was also found that TV users prioritize service accessibility, radio users emphasize service availability, and users of official agency information sources place a high value on data accuracy. These findings have implications for policymakers, emergency planners, and traffic engineers involved with disaster response operations to improve the resilience of transportation systems.

Accurate storm surge prediction in hurricane area of the Atlantic Ocean using a new multi-recursive neural network based on gate recursive unit

This paper proposes an enhanced storm surge forecasting approach utilizing novel neural networks, specifically a model based on gated recurrent units (GRUs), and incorporates a distortion loss function known as Distortion Loss Including Shape and Time (DILATE) for improved prediction accuracy and reliability. Historical data from four stations in the hurricane-prone region of the Atlantic Ocean are utilized for both training and testing purposes. Various models are employed to predict storm surges with lead times of 3, 6, and 12 hours, and their performance is evaluated by comparing the predicted values with the observed ones. Furthermore, the influence of various physical factors on storm surge formation is examined. The findings indicate that the GRU-DILATE model is more suitable for storm surge prediction, particularly for longer lead times. This model effectively reduces prediction delays and accurately captures the trends in wave height associated with storm surges. Among the physical factors studied, wind speed and atmospheric pressure emerge as the most important variables influencing storm surges. Additionally, the significance of wind direction is highlighted, as it plays a crucial role in determining whether the sea level rises or falls during the initial stages of a storm surge. It is expected that the proposed model has the potential to enhance response and preparedness measures in hurricane-prone areas, finding applications in coastal planning, infrastructure design, disaster management, and other aspects of ocean engineering.

Overall and Local Wind Loads on Post-Installed Elevator Shaft of Existing Buildings

The glass curtain walls of post-installed elevator shafts in existing buildings can be damaged by local wind loads, and the serviceability of an elevator may be affected by excessive overall wind loads, especially in hurricane-prone areas. The overall and local wind load characteristics of elevator shafts with different arrangements (E-type, H-type, I-type) were studied using wind tunnel tests and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) numerical simulations. Firstly, high-frequency base balance wind tunnel tests of these elevator shafts with three arrangements were carried out to obtain the overall wind loads on the elevator shafts. Secondly, a CFD simulation was performed on the post-installed elevator shafts with three arrangements, obtaining the surface local wind pressure distribution of the elevator shafts under different wind directions. Finally, the wind-induced displacement responses of post-installed elevator shafts were analyzed. The results show that the aerodynamic interference of different elevator arrangements (E-type, H-type, I-type) and wind directions have significant effects on the overall local wind loads and wind-induced responses of the post-installed elevator, while the local wind loads on the area of the elevator door are less influenced by the elevator arrangement type than local wind loads on the surface and the overall wind loads of the elevator shafts. The results and conclusions may be helpful for developing the wind-resistant design of a post-installed elevator shaft.

Uncertainty of extreme wind and wave loads for marine renewable energy farms in hurricane-prone regions

The offshore wind industry is rapidly developing in a hurricane prone area off the US East Coast. For assessment of extreme environmental conditions, or hazard intensity measures, such as wind and wave loads (e.g., 50-year or 500-year wind speed) various methodologies including univariate (e.g., Generalized Extreme Value distribution; GEV) and multivariate (e.g., Inverse First Order Reliability Method, IFORM) analysis have been recommended. Further, due to lack of long-term observed data at a site, available observed/hindcast at nearby stations are commonly used which can lead to errors. The objective of this study is to better understand and quantify the level of uncertainty in extreme value analysis of wind/wave data for marine renewable energy sites in hurricane-prone regions. An area off the northeast of the US where several large projects have been planned was selected as a case study. Univariate and bivariate analyses of wind/wave data at several stations were carried out and results were compared.For this study, Bivariate (IFORM) and univariate (GPD) methods resulted in an average difference of 4% and 6% for extreme wind and wave data, respectively. It has been demonstrated that these discrepancies still fall within the 95% confidence intervals of the standard GEV method.

COVID-19, subjective resilience, adaptive, and coping capacities in hurricane-prone regions

This study focuses on understanding perceptions of recovery and resilience by employing the theoretical lens of subjective resilience, adaptive, and coping capacities to understand individual cognition of risks and perceptions of recovery from the pandemic for those living in hurricane-prone areas. We explore several factors affecting perceptions of resilience and recovery, such as capacities to adapt and cope, risk perceptions, communication sources, levels of physical and social vulnerabilities, the ability to prepare for hurricanes during the pandemic, perceptions of government policies, social capital, and partisanship. To analyze these factors, we use individual-level data that were collected using a survey population drawn from both random (via telephone landlines) and nonrandom (via the internet) sampling in Florida. We find that expectations of recovery were positively associated with several factors, including risk perceptions with higher levels of concern about the pandemic, higher self-reported levels of stress, lack of preparation for a hurricane making landfall during the pandemic, less social connectedness, and political party affiliation. The results help inform pandemic preparedness and management.

Flooding perception and its impact on hurricane evacuation intentions

Just before a hurricane is expected to strike an urban area, evacuation orders are issued to get people to safer zones. Issued by local governments, evacuation orders are made based on the actual flooding risk for individuals living in the affected areas; however, not everyone follows the orders. In past decades, understanding what makes people leave or stay has become a major research objective among academics. Although flooding risk, whether perceived or actual, is considered the main trigger in the evacuation decision-making, it has received little attention. Using data from 2200 households located in the hurricane-prone area of Hampton Roads in Virginia, US, this paper analyzes the role of evacuation zones and the perceived probability of flooding in the perception of risk. The findings reveal that proper evacuation zone awareness and trust in authorities are critical to increasing evacuation intention rates. We also provide several insights for emergency managers and policymakers to proactively plan and communicate the risks for increased evacuation rates that can reduce personal and human losses.

Age, Emotion Regulation, and Well-Being after the 2016 Flood

Fibromyalgia is a chronic pain condition that is frequently accompanied by comorbid conditions, including depression. Depression is associated with reduced physical functioning and health disproportionately affecting middle-aged and older adults with fibromyalgia. This study examined depressive symptoms as a mechanism through which FM status is associated with BMI and physical performance among adults in mid-to-late-life. Participants included 250 community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults (82% female) with (59%) or without (41%) fibromyalgia (M age = 64.44, SD = 9.16). Depressive symptoms were measured using the Beck Depression Inventory-II, BMI was objectively assessed, and physical performance was measured using the Fullerton Advanced Balance scale, 6-Minute Walk Test, 30-Second Chair Stand, and 8-Foot Up and Go Test. Physical performance measure analyses were adjusted for age. Asymptotic mediation analyses revealed that fibromyalgia status was indirectly associated with higher BMI (95% CI [.18, 16.74]), and poorer performance in the Fullerton Advanced Balance (CI [-2.93, -1.24]), 6-Minute Walk Test (CI [-73.75, -35.35]), 30-Second Chair Stand (CI [-2.45, -1.16]), and 8-Foot Up and Go test (CI [.35, .92]) via depressive symptoms. Participants with fibromyalgia reported greater depressive symptoms which was subsequently associated with greater BMI and reduced physical performance. Findings support depressive symptoms as one factor through which fibromyalgia status is associated with higher obesity risk and reduced physical function in middle-aged and older adults with fibromyalgia. This study supports fibromyalgia status as a critical consideration when evaluating the health and disability risk of aging adults.

Age, Emotion Regulation, and Well-Being after the 2016 Flood

In 2016, catastrophic flooding in south Louisiana claimed 13 lives with billions of dollars in damage to homes and communities in the decade after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the US Gulf Coast. In this study, we tested the inoculation hypothesis which predicts that older adults will be less distressed than younger adults due to their prior experience with severe weather events. Participants were 218 predominately middle-aged and older adults who varied in current and prior flood experience: less than half (40%) did not flood in 2016, 31% had flood damage, and 29% had relocated permanently inland after catastrophic losses in the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and they flooded again in 2016. Depression symptoms were assessed with the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Emotion regulation strategies were measured using the Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire-Short Form. Results indicated that the older adults had fewer symptoms of depression and were less likely to report self blame for flood-related adversities compared to younger adults. The two age groups did not differ significantly on the emotion regulation strategies of acceptance, reappraisal, positive refocusing, other blame, and perseveration. Age was inversely associated with symptoms of depression and the maladaptive strategies of self blame for flood-related misfortune and perseveration over losses. These data support the inoculation hypothesis and suggest that prior severe weather experiences, which are likely for older adults living in hurricane prone areas, are important for post-flood resilience. Implications of these findings for disaster planning and age-sensitive interventions to mitigate adversity are considered.

Integrating Evacuation and Storm Surge Modeling Considering Potential Hurricane Tracks: The Case of Hurricane Irma in Southeast Florida

Hurricane Irma, in 2017, made an unusual landfall in South Florida and the unpredictability of the hurricane’s path challenged the evacuation process seriously and left many evacuees clueless. It was likely to hit Southeast Florida but suddenly shifted its path to the west coast of the peninsula, where the evacuation process had to change immediately without any time for individual decision-making. As such, this study aimed to develop a methodology to integrate evacuation and storm surge modeling with a case study analysis of Irma hitting Southeast Florida. For this purpose, a coupled storm surge and wave finite element model (ADCIRC+SWAN) was used to determine the inundation zones and roadways with higher inundation risk in Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties in Southeast Florida. This was fed into the evacuation modeling to estimate the regional clearance times and shelter availability in the selected counties. Findings show that it takes approximately three days to safely evacuate the populations in the study area. Modeling such integrated simulations before the hurricane hit the state could provide the information people in hurricane-prone areas need to decide to evacuate or not before the mandatory evacuation order is given.

Assessing the impact of hurricane frequency and intensity on mortgage delinquency

Considerable meteorological research suggests that the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes are rising. This analysis focuses on estimating the impacts of hurricane intensity and frequency on mortgage delinquency. Based upon a large loan-level dataset of mortgages purchased by Freddie Mac between 1999 and 2015, loans with an average lifetime Saffir–Simpson hurricane rating of 3 or more were found to be 88 per cent more likely to become delinquent than other loans in the same locations, controlling for all other risk factors. This result has important implications for mortgage and insurance markets and homeowners. First, if longterm hurricane trends bear out, mortgage default risk in areas with a higher incidence of major hurricanes will likely rise significantly over time. Secondly, investors in mortgage credit risk from these locations will face higher default losses in the future. Thirdly, private investors in mortgage credit-risk transfer (CRT) securities could experience higher credit losses of loans from hurricaneprone areas. Investors in lower-rated tranches would be particularly impacted given the nature of their exposure to losses earlier than more highly rated tranches. Catastrophe bonds could be used to diversify hurricane risks to investors that may be in a better position to assess and hold this risk.

Household Evacuation Planning and Preparation for Future Hurricanes: Role of Utility Service Disruptions

We analyzed data from a survey administered to 1,212 respondents living in superstorm Hurricane Sandy-affected areas. We estimated the effect of having experienced hurricane-induced disruptions to utility services, such as electricity, water, gas, phone service, and public transportation, on having an evacuation plan. Around 39% of respondents reported having an evacuation plan in case a hurricane affects their neighborhood this year. Respondents who had experienced disruptions to electricity supply had an approximately 11 percentage-point higher likelihood of having an evacuation plan than those who had experienced no such disruptions. Respondents who had experienced monetary losses from Hurricane Sandy had around a five percentage-point higher likelihood of having an evacuation plan compared with those who had not. Among control variables, prior evacuation, distance to the coastline, residence in a flood zone, concern about the impacts of future natural disaster events, had window protection, and household members being disabled, each had an association with residents’ future evacuation planning and hurricane preparedness. In light of these findings, we discuss the policy implications of our findings for improving disaster management in hurricane-prone areas.

Adult Age Differences in Coping Strategies After the 2016 Flood

The 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita had a devastating impact on south Louisiana, as did the more recent flooding in 2016. Multiple disaster exposures are associated with distress which may be lessened through adaptive coping behaviors, although prior disaster losses may affect current coping responses. In this study, we assessed self-reported coping strategies, resilience, and mental health outcomes after the 2016 flood. The sample was comprised of mostly middle-aged and older adults (N = 223, age range: 18-89 years). Three groups were compared: (1) non-flooded adults as controls, (2) once-flooded adults with structural damage to homes and property in 2016, and (3) twice-flooded adults who had relocated to Baton Rouge because of catastrophic losses in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and they experienced damage in the 2016 flood. Analyses of variance confirmed that the three groups differed in coping responses, with non-flooded controls using significantly fewer strategies than their once and twice flooded counterparts. Correlation analyses demonstrated that age was positively associated with adaptive forms of coping (acceptance, religiosity) and negatively correlated with maladaptive coping (self-blame). These data suggest that awareness of prior severe weather experiences and catastrophic losses, which are likely for older adults living in hurricane prone areas, are an important consideration for disaster planning and the development of age-sensitive interventions to mitigate adversity.

Hurricane Hazard Assessment Along the United States Northeastern Coast: Surface Wind and Rain Fields Under Changing Climate

Surface wind and rain fields are two significant elements of hurricane-induced hazards in coastal areas. Mitigation of losses due to hurricane wind and rain hazards has become an increasing urgent and challenging issue in light of changing climate and continued escalation of coastal population density, prompting the need for a more advanced risk analysis methodology to take global warming effects into consideration. In this study, the assessment of hurricane surface wind and rain hazards under changing climate is achieved by performing three simulation components, namely an enhanced hurricane track model to generate the synthesized storms (including a physics-based intensity model integrating sea surface temperature (SST), wind shear, and convective instability contributions), a newly developed thermal wind balance-based model to simulate the gradient wind profiles (explicitly considering environmental conditions of SST, temperature at the top of atmospheric boundary layer, and outflow temperature), and a height-resolving boundary-layer model to obtain the surface wind and rain fields (reducing inherent uncertainties associated with conventionally used gradient-to-surface wind speed conversion factors). A total of 10,000 years of hurricane events are generated for both observed (historical) and projected climate conditions, and a systematical comparison between these two scenarios is investigated. The simulation and comparison results highlight the important effects of a global warming scenario on hurricane surface wind and rain fields, and hence on critical civil infrastructure in hurricane-prone areas.

Identifying Risk Indicators for Natural Hazard-Related Power Outages as a Component of Risk Assessment: An Analysis Using Power Outage Data from Hurricane Irma

Extensive use has been made of lifecycle-cost assessment to enhance the cost-effectiveness and resilience of facilities management. However, if such assessments are to be truly effective, supplemental information will be needed on the major costs to be expected over buildings’ entire lives. Electricity generation and distribution systems, for example, are absolutely indispensable to industry and human society, not least in the operation of buildings and other infrastructure as networks. The widespread disruption that ensues when such power systems are damaged often carries considerable repair costs. Natural disasters likewise can cause extensive societal, economic, and environmental damage. Such damage is often associated with lengthy power outages that, as well as being directly harmful, can hinder emergency response and recovery. Accordingly, the present study investigated the correlations of natural hazard indicators such as wind speed and rainfall, along with environmental data regarding the power failure in Florida caused by Hurricane Irma in 2017 utilizing multiple regression analysis. The environmental data in question, selected on the basis of a thorough literature review, was tree density. Our analysis indicated that the independent variables, maximum wind speed, total rainfall, and tree density, were all significantly correlated with the dependent variable, power failure. Among these, rainfall was the least significant. Despite there being only three independent variables in the model, its adjusted coefficient of determination (0.512) indicated its effectiveness as a predictor of the power outages caused by Hurricane Irma. As such, our results can serve the construction industry’s establishment of advanced safety guidelines and structural designs power transmission systems in regions at risk of hurricanes and typhoons. Additionally, insurance companies’ loss-assessment modeling for power-system facilities would benefit from incorporating the three identified risk indicators. Finally, our findings can serve as a useful reference to policymakers tasked with mitigating power outages’ effects on infrastructure in hurricane-prone areas. It is hoped that this work will be extended, facilitating infrastructure restoration planning and making societies and economies more sustainable.

Pharmacy Functionality During the Hurricane Florence Disaster.

The aim of this study was to analyze pharmacy functionality, or the volume of operational pharmacies, among areas in North Carolina and South Carolina affected by Hurricane Florence. Using geographic information system software and data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Healthcare Ready, we computed, mapped, and analyzed pharmacy functionality measures for the period of September 12, 2018, through September 20, 2018, among counties in North Carolina and South Carolina to examine health-care-related disaster readiness for and response to Hurricane Florence. In the Hurricane Florence-impacted region, counties located along the coast had the most suboptimal pharmacy functionality, whereas counties located more centrally within North Carolina and South Carolina had more optimal pharmacy functionality throughout the disaster. Generally, functionality was high at Hurricane Florence's landfall on September 14, 2018, for which operating pharmacy capacity was reported at 85% in North Carolina and 88% in South Carolina. Both states had the lowest functionality on September 16, 2018, at 71% for North Carolina and 62% for South Carolina. During the Hurricane Florence event, suboptimal pharmacy functionality was detected for coastal areas and during the disaster response period. Hurricane readiness plans and infrastructure strengthening should be emphasized for community pharmacies in hurricane-prone areas.

Understanding the spatiotemporal development of human settlement in hurricane-prone areas on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts using nighttime remote sensing

Abstract. Hurricanes, as one of the most devastating natural hazards, have posed a great threat to people in coastal areas. A better understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of human settlement in hurricane-prone areas largely benefits sustainable development. This study uses the nighttime light (NTL) data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) to examine human settlement development in areas with different levels of hurricane proneness from 1992 to 2013. The DMSP/OLS NTL data from six satellites were intercalibrated and desaturated with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) optical imagery to derive the Vegetation Adjusted NTL Urban Index (VANUI), a popular index that quantifies human settlement intensity. The derived VANUI time series was examined with the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen test to identify significant spatiotemporal trends. To link the VANUI product to hurricane impacts, four hurricane-prone zones were extracted to represent different levels of hurricane proneness. Aside from geographic division, a wind-speed-weighted track density function was developed and applied to historical storm tracks which originated in the North Atlantic Basin to better categorize the four levels of hurricane proneness. Spatiotemporal patterns of human settlement in the four zones were finally analyzed. The results clearly exhibit a north–south and inland–coastal discrepancy of human settlement dynamics. This study also reveals that both the zonal extent and zonal increase rate of human settlement positively correlate with hurricane proneness levels. The intensified human settlement in high hurricane-exposure zones deserves further attention for coastal resilience.

Legal liability, good engineering judgment and adaptation

AbstractHurricane Harvey's devastation resulted in flooding and fire, as well as criminal indictments and civil litigation arising from the fire at the Arkema facility. This current litigation is just part of a recent trend in civil litigation, from citizen suits to common law actions, that is redefining causes of action and defenses in the context of climate change. This trend is creating greater concern among engineering and management professionals regarding litigation risk and potential liability arising from individual or managerial actions undertaken on behalf of an employer or client. These concerns are exacerbated by greater ability to forecast anticipated impacts from storm events in hurricane prone areas, which lends support to allegations that such events are foreseeable, and that engineers have a duty to prevent harm resulting from such events. In this context, chemical engineers should read the Chemical Safety Board's Arkema Final Report, especially focusing on the CSB's recommendations for further action by AIChE's Center for Chemical Process Safety, and brush up on the basics of professional liability.This article, developed specifically for AIChE members and presentation at the 15th Annual Global Congress on Process Safety, by an AIChE Fellow, senior environmental attorney and Fellow of the American College of Environmental Lawyers, does not constitute legal advice but provides a brief overview of legal process and concepts regarding professional liability, including classes of defendants such as plant managers, employees, licensed and unlicensed professionals, and independent contractors, types of civil and criminal claims, standing and other threshold issues, general defenses and immunities, and evidentiary issues at trial.

Eyeing the storm: How residents of coastal Florida see hurricane forecasts and warnings

This paper examines the societal dimensions of warning decisions during extreme weather events in one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the U.S., Miami-Dade County, Florida. With the aim of informing improvements in the hurricane forecast and warning system, and better understanding warning decisions in extreme weather events, we explore how members of the public obtain and use hurricane forecasts and warnings in decision making. Results from in depth mental models interviews with members of the public (N = 28) and survey data from three counties in Florida (N = 460) show that a large majority of respondents have some hurricane experience, which influences their thinking about storm impacts, individual actions to mitigate the hazard, and vulnerability to the hazard. Comparison with results from previous research with warning system professionals (National Weather Service forecasters, media broadcasters, and public officials) indicates several gaps between professionals and laypeople including different perceptions of hurricane risks overall and related to flooding from storm surge. The findings suggest several areas for improvements in the hurricane forecast and warning system.

Improved calculation model for swing angle of suspension insulator string

In modern power systems, increasing faults of overhead transmission lines are caused by wind swing discharge especially in weather-sensitive regions such as coastal hurricane-prone areas. Since the vast majority of wind swing discharge accidents occur at the working voltage and existing models established for the suspension insulator wind swing discharge are not adequate to analyse all cases, an improved model under wind with arbitrary directions is proposed in this paper. Comprehensive factors are taken into consideration including exposure factor of wind pressure under different landforms and different elevations, wind pressure asymmetric factor, iced conductors, the coupling effect of conductors to insulators, the shielding wake flow effect of bundled conductor, the fluctuating wind amplification effect, mechanical oscillating of insulators, etc. IEEE model and design manual model are chosen as comparisons with the simulation results of ANSYS. Test results show that the improved model proposed in this paper coincides with ANSYS results better than the other two models almost in all the working conditions considering different spans and altitude differences. The results demonstrate that the improved model can make contribution to the economical and reasonable design of towers as well as early warning of wind swing discharge of suspension insulators.