Flooding perception and its impact on hurricane evacuation intentions

Abstract

Just before a hurricane is expected to strike an urban area, evacuation orders are issued to get people to safer zones. Issued by local governments, evacuation orders are made based on the actual flooding risk for individuals living in the affected areas; however, not everyone follows the orders. In past decades, understanding what makes people leave or stay has become a major research objective among academics. Although flooding risk, whether perceived or actual, is considered the main trigger in the evacuation decision-making, it has received little attention. Using data from 2200 households located in the hurricane-prone area of Hampton Roads in Virginia, US, this paper analyzes the role of evacuation zones and the perceived probability of flooding in the perception of risk. The findings reveal that proper evacuation zone awareness and trust in authorities are critical to increasing evacuation intention rates. We also provide several insights for emergency managers and policymakers to proactively plan and communicate the risks for increased evacuation rates that can reduce personal and human losses.