Accurate storm surge prediction in hurricane area of the Atlantic Ocean using a new multi-recursive neural network based on gate recursive unit

Abstract

This paper proposes an enhanced storm surge forecasting approach utilizing novel neural networks, specifically a model based on gated recurrent units (GRUs), and incorporates a distortion loss function known as Distortion Loss Including Shape and Time (DILATE) for improved prediction accuracy and reliability. Historical data from four stations in the hurricane-prone region of the Atlantic Ocean are utilized for both training and testing purposes. Various models are employed to predict storm surges with lead times of 3, 6, and 12 hours, and their performance is evaluated by comparing the predicted values with the observed ones. Furthermore, the influence of various physical factors on storm surge formation is examined. The findings indicate that the GRU-DILATE model is more suitable for storm surge prediction, particularly for longer lead times. This model effectively reduces prediction delays and accurately captures the trends in wave height associated with storm surges. Among the physical factors studied, wind speed and atmospheric pressure emerge as the most important variables influencing storm surges. Additionally, the significance of wind direction is highlighted, as it plays a crucial role in determining whether the sea level rises or falls during the initial stages of a storm surge. It is expected that the proposed model has the potential to enhance response and preparedness measures in hurricane-prone areas, finding applications in coastal planning, infrastructure design, disaster management, and other aspects of ocean engineering.