Integrating Evacuation and Storm Surge Modeling Considering Potential Hurricane Tracks: The Case of Hurricane Irma in Southeast Florida

Mahyar Ghorbanzadeh,Mengdi Ma,Mengdi Ma,Linoj Vijayan,Linoj Vijayan,Jieya Yang,Jieya Yang,Wenrui Huang,Wenrui Huang,Eren Erman Ozguven

doi:10.3390/ijgi10100661

Abstract

Hurricane Irma, in 2017, made an unusual landfall in South Florida and the unpredictability of the hurricane’s path challenged the evacuation process seriously and left many evacuees clueless. It was likely to hit Southeast Florida but suddenly shifted its path to the west coast of the peninsula, where the evacuation process had to change immediately without any time for individual decision-making. As such, this study aimed to develop a methodology to integrate evacuation and storm surge modeling with a case study analysis of Irma hitting Southeast Florida. For this purpose, a coupled storm surge and wave finite element model (ADCIRC+SWAN) was used to determine the inundation zones and roadways with higher inundation risk in Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties in Southeast Florida. This was fed into the evacuation modeling to estimate the regional clearance times and shelter availability in the selected counties. Findings show that it takes approximately three days to safely evacuate the populations in the study area. Modeling such integrated simulations before the hurricane hit the state could provide the information people in hurricane-prone areas need to decide to evacuate or not before the mandatory evacuation order is given.

Highlights

In recent decades, hurricanes have had devastating impacts on communities and infrastructure in the U.S due to the strong winds, flooding, and storm surges they bring, especially along the coastal areas [1,2]
Severe traffic congestion caused by hurricanes on the roadways makes this problem even more challenging for the residents of affected regions as they need to evacuate on time [6,7]
(2016), Irma (2017), Michael (2018), Dorian (2019), and Sally (2020) have clearly shown that the evacuation process has been significantly affected by the hurricane track forecasting as well as the number of people who want to evacuate via evacuation routes

Summary

Introduction

Hurricanes have had devastating impacts on communities and infrastructure in the U.S due to the strong winds, flooding, and storm surges they bring, especially along the coastal areas [1,2]. Among the U.S states, the State of Florida, due to its unique geography which is surrounded on three sides by water and long coastlines, is significantly vulnerable to severe storms and hurricanes [4]. 15.8 million people living in the coastal region, ranks third after California and New York based on a comparison of the populations who live in coastal counties [5]. Severe traffic congestion caused by hurricanes on the roadways makes this problem even more challenging for the residents of affected regions as they need to evacuate on time [6,7]. Recent hurricanes including Hurricanes Hermine (2016), Irma (2017), Michael (2018), Dorian (2019), and Sally (2020) have clearly shown that the evacuation process has been significantly affected by the hurricane track forecasting as well as the number of people who want to evacuate via evacuation routes

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