Hubbert Model Research Articles

The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves

The production and the depletion of mineral resources, and especially oil and fossil fuels, has been an object of extensive predictive modeling. These predictions are often derived from Hubbert's model which is based on the fitting of the experimental data to a symmetric, bell-shaped curve. Although this model describes several historical cases, in particular, crude oil production in the lower 48 US states, not all theoretical models for the “mineral economy” are based on symmetric curves. Also, not much attention has been dedicated so far to the mechanisms which lead to such a behavior. In particular, scarce attention has been dedicated to the factors which may make the production curve asymmetric, e.g. a decline in production more abrupt than the growth. In the present paper, the author uses a stochastic model to examine factors affecting these phenomena. The results of the simulations indicate that the production curves of a non-renewable resource may be asymmetric in dependence on factors such as the search strategy or the presence of technological improvements. Considering worldwide oil production, the simulations indicate that the after-peak downward slope might turn out to be considerably more steep than the upward slope, something that could have unpleasant effects on the economy.

Estimation of natural-gas consumption in Poland based on the logistic-curve interpretation

This paper describes the possible scenario of the development of the gas sector in Poland. An adaptation of the Hubbert model is implemented to the Polish situation based upon the Starzman modification. The model presented describes hypothetical natural-gas demand, based on average trend of the economy development during recent decades; the model considers natural production/demand maxima of energy carriers. The prognosis is loaded with an error resulting from the use of average data related to yearly increases of the national gross product. The adapted model expresses good compatibility with the natural-gas demand for the period 1995–2000. However, the error of prognosis may reach 20%. The simple structure of the model enables the possibility of yearly updating, and eventual correction of the natural-gas demand. In cases of untypical changes of the economy growth rate (long stagnation, extreme long and accelerated development), the prognosis error may increase.

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)

A group of petroleum analysts using the so-called Hubbert method have been arguing that resource scarcity will soon have a severe impact on the global economy. Although past efforts have not yielded valid results, the new researchers claim that using a proprietary database and field production data, they are able to generate creaming curves which show the ultimate recovery in any given area and for the globe as a whole. However, careful examination of the body of work shows that the authors are inconsistent in their arguments, rely on assumptions in key areas and make numerous unsupported assertions. Most of their key findings appear to be no more than a misunderstanding of statistical analysis. Not only can some of their methods be demonstrated to be ineffective, and their conclusions repeatedly failed, but the authors publish data and cases selectively, omitting those which contradict their theories, implying that the work is unreliable.

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)

A group of petroleum analysts using the so-called Hubbert method have been arguing that resource scarcity will soon have a severe impact on the global economy. Although past efforts have not yielded valid results, the new researchers claim that using a proprietary database and field production data, they are able to generate creaming curves which show the ultimate recovery in any given area and for the globe as a whole. However, careful examination of the body of work shows that the authors are inconsistent in their arguments, rely on assumptions in key areas and make numerous unsupported assertions. Most of their key findings appear to be no more than a misunderstanding of statistical analysis. Not only can some of their methods be demonstrated to be ineffective, and their conclusions repeatedly failed, but the authors publish data and cases selectively, omitting those which contradict their theories, implying that the work is unreliable.

Forecasting World Natural Gas Supply

World gas supply forecasting has proved difficult because its exploration, transportation, and customer bases are so heavily dependent on fluctuating economic factors. Our recent study showed that the conventional Hubbert model with one complete production cycle is not appropriate for use in forecasting gas production trends for most gas producing countries. This paper presents our forecast for the world's supply of conventional natural gas to the year 2050. We used a multicyclic Hubbert approach to develop 53 country-specific gas supply models that enable production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. The multicyclic modeling approach is presented in a convenient form that makes production data exhibiting two or more cycles easier to model. These models were aggregated to the regional level and to the world level. Supply models for some organizations (e.g. OPEC, non-OPEC, OECD) were also developed and analyzed. Our results indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual depletion rate of 1%/yr. A regional analysis indicates that gas production of some regions will peak soon. North American gas production is currently (1999) at its peak. West European gas production is expected to peak in 2002. The countries of the former Soviet Union and Middle East, which comprise about 60% of world's ultimate recovery of natural gas, will be the main sources of world gas supply in the future.

Worldwide Petroleum-Liquid Supply and Demand (includes associated papers 52597 and 52598 )

In this study, we undertook the risky task of predicting the world's future supply of and demand for petroleum liquids [crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL's)] to the Year 2050. On the basis of earlier work, we choose to forecast future supply using the Hubbert model, which has advantages of simplicity and availability of data. Although this approach has several known inadequacies, it has withstood the test of time in numerous cases, and we consider it a fairly reliable supply predictor. We also used the Hubbert model to forecast demand. We found no precedence for this use and currently regard its accuracy as speculative. Nevertheless, some signs indicate that it too may develop use over time as a reasonable predictor. Our study showed that world supply (and demand) for petroleum liquids is currently at a peak and will soon decline. We examined supply and demand by region. Some regions, such as the Middle East, will produce a surplus of crude throughout the forecast period. Other regions, most notably the Far East and North America, will remain importers. Still other regions, such as Africa, that are now exporting will soon become importers.

Forecasting ultimate resource recovery

This paper considers Hubbert's model for forecasting ultimate resource recovery and its extensions by Kaufmann (1991, Resources and Energy 13, 111–127) and Cleveland and Kaufmann (1991, Energy Journal 12, 17–46). The emphasis of the paper is on econometric and forecasting issues, and it discusses alternative methods of estimating Hubbert's model. Using data on oil production in the U.S. lower 48 states, the paper reports the results of estimating the various specifications of the model and its extensions by the maximum-likelihood method, and provides the implied estimates for ultimate resource recovery and their associated standard errors. When economic factors are taken into account the estimates of ultimate resource recovery become state-dependent, and we find that in this case the estimates are higher than those obtained from the various specifications of Hubbert's original model. Although the accuracy of the estimates of ultimate recoverable reserves cannot be evaluated before oil reserves are actually exhausted, we examine how the various models estimated over the periods 1926–1985 and 1948–1985 perform in predicting oil production over the 1986–1990 period.