Forecasting ultimate resource recovery

Abstract

This paper considers Hubbert's model for forecasting ultimate resource recovery and its extensions by Kaufmann (1991, Resources and Energy 13, 111–127) and Cleveland and Kaufmann (1991, Energy Journal 12, 17–46). The emphasis of the paper is on econometric and forecasting issues, and it discusses alternative methods of estimating Hubbert's model. Using data on oil production in the U.S. lower 48 states, the paper reports the results of estimating the various specifications of the model and its extensions by the maximum-likelihood method, and provides the implied estimates for ultimate resource recovery and their associated standard errors. When economic factors are taken into account the estimates of ultimate resource recovery become state-dependent, and we find that in this case the estimates are higher than those obtained from the various specifications of Hubbert's original model. Although the accuracy of the estimates of ultimate recoverable reserves cannot be evaluated before oil reserves are actually exhausted, we examine how the various models estimated over the periods 1926–1985 and 1948–1985 perform in predicting oil production over the 1986–1990 period.