Forecasting World Natural Gas Supply

Abstract

World gas supply forecasting has proved difficult because its exploration, transportation, and customer bases are so heavily dependent on fluctuating economic factors. Our recent study showed that the conventional Hubbert model with one complete production cycle is not appropriate for use in forecasting gas production trends for most gas producing countries. This paper presents our forecast for the world's supply of conventional natural gas to the year 2050. We used a multicyclic Hubbert approach to develop 53 country-specific gas supply models that enable production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. The multicyclic modeling approach is presented in a convenient form that makes production data exhibiting two or more cycles easier to model. These models were aggregated to the regional level and to the world level. Supply models for some organizations (e.g. OPEC, non-OPEC, OECD) were also developed and analyzed. Our results indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual depletion rate of 1%/yr. A regional analysis indicates that gas production of some regions will peak soon. North American gas production is currently (1999) at its peak. West European gas production is expected to peak in 2002. The countries of the former Soviet Union and Middle East, which comprise about 60% of world's ultimate recovery of natural gas, will be the main sources of world gas supply in the future.