Abstract
In this study, we undertook the risky task of predicting the world's future supply of and demand for petroleum liquids [crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL's)] to the Year 2050. On the basis of earlier work, we choose to forecast future supply using the Hubbert model, which has advantages of simplicity and availability of data. Although this approach has several known inadequacies, it has withstood the test of time in numerous cases, and we consider it a fairly reliable supply predictor. We also used the Hubbert model to forecast demand. We found no precedence for this use and currently regard its accuracy as speculative. Nevertheless, some signs indicate that it too may develop use over time as a reasonable predictor. Our study showed that world supply (and demand) for petroleum liquids is currently at a peak and will soon decline. We examined supply and demand by region. Some regions, such as the Middle East, will produce a surplus of crude throughout the forecast period. Other regions, most notably the Far East and North America, will remain importers. Still other regions, such as Africa, that are now exporting will soon become importers.
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