President’s Column: SPE@Energy Transition

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_ Editor’s Note: This is a summary of the October episode of the President’s vodcast. We encourage you to watch the episode to see the full conversation. In this vodcast, Houzé discusses his views on SPE and the energy transition. _ Last month, I presented a to-do list with five main topics: energy transition, finances, governance, membership, and quality. This month, I will discuss the first topic, energy transition. 1. SPE’s polarized views on energy transition As I mentioned last month, there are significant geographic contrasts within our industry and SPE regarding how the energy transition is perceived and developed. In some SPE venues and regions, energy transition is the dominant, if not the only subject, and the P in SPE is indeed a major obstacle for support, even from our traditional stakeholders. In other regions, stakeholders acknowledge the energy transition, but the situation is essentially business as usual. Major investments are underway to sustain production at current levels or even increase hydrocarbon production to record levels, with development plans spanning over several decades. Even in these regions, most, if not all, new projects are designed from the outset to have a low carbon footprint, including mitigating methane emissions. Energy transition is somehow factored in. So, there are very different narratives, which are reflected in a polite but real polarization within SPE—geographic and, occasionally, demographic. As an SPE President visiting many sections and stakeholders, the contrast is often striking. But we are engineers operating on the same planet, and there must be a single energy narrative that accounts for the reality of the energy transition in whatever form or definition this takes, locally or globally. To do this, we can try to assess in the most objective way possible how our license to operate may evolve in the short to medium term. I will start with something you may have seen many times: the three main energy transition scenarios presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA). These scenarios predict the climate impact by the end of the century based on current and predicted variables, including consumption, population, economics, and technologies. These are just models, but as the statistician George Box pointed out: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” These IEA models are definitely useful (Fig. 1).