Global Mitigation Policies Research Articles

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Agenda-setting and policy leadership for municipal climate change adaptation

Climate change presents a pervasive global threat to billions of people as well as ecosystems. Global mitigation policy failures mean we must now urgently adapt to projected climate impacts. While local government is expected to play a vital role in climate change adaptation, major breakdowns are occurring in local governments’ ability to implement adaptation responses. Studies point to the importance of two key factors underpinning successful municipal climate change adaptation – supportive leadership and an authorising environment for adaptation. But few studies provide in-depth analysis of these factors and how they play out in practice. This paper reports the results of research addressing this knowledge gap, drawing on analysis of leadership in four Australian local governments (municipal councils). Twenty-five local government elected officials, executive leaders, and staff required to operationalise leaders’ decisions were interviewed. Interviews examined leaders’ role and influence in climate change adaptation and their receptiveness to mainstreaming. Results show that whether leaders consider climate risk on their policy agenda is highly variable and subject to factors such as: public mood and community expectations; issue salience; the presence of dedicated policy entrepreneurs to champion a response; and focusing events that heighten the urgency of adaptation. We identify three concrete opportunities to mainstream municipal climate adaptation responses: enhance issue salience within leaders; leverage networks of influence; and strengthen formal systems of municipal climate governance.

Adherence to treatment and harmful effects of medication shortages in the context of severe crises: scale validation and correlates

BackgroundMedication shortage is a public health problem, affecting patients’ outcomes mainly through the difficulty in maintaining adherence, particularly in the context of a severe economic crisis. There is a need for a new scale that assesses the effect of medication shortage on adherence.AimTo develop and validate a scale to evaluate the harmful impact of medication shortage among the general Lebanese population and assess its correlates and association with medication adherence.MethodsA questionnaire was used to assess medication shortage harmful effects and patients’ adherence, allowing to generate the Harmful Impact of Medication Shortage scale (HIMS). The factor analysis, convergent validity and reliability of the generated scale were assessed, followed by multivariable regressions to evaluate its correlates.ResultsThe developed HIMS scale is a 9-item tool, used to assess how difficult it was for people to deal with medication shortages and their harmful effects on treatment. It was significantly and inversely linked to treatment adherence and affected by the patients’ socioeconomic status and the type of chronic disease.ConclusionThe Harmful Impact of Medication Shortage scale could be an efficient tool to measure the detrimental effects of medication shortages among the Lebanese adult population with chronic diseases, particularly affecting treatment adherence. Future studies and evidence are still needed to confirm our findings and help build global mitigation policies addressing medication shortages.

Global methane pledge versus carbon dioxide emission reduction

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas whose contribution to anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system is second only to carbon dioxide (CO2). CH4 emission reduction has become critical to global climate mitigation policy, resulting most notably in the global methane pledge (GMP), pledging a 30% reduction of CH4 emissions by 2030. Methane is, however, much shorter-lived in the atmosphere than CO2, so emissions reductions may have different impacts on global warming over time. We quantify the difference over time in global annual mean surface temperature of the GMP versus the equivalent amount of CO2 emission reduction. The avoidance of CH4 emissions in the 2020s due to the GMP initially results in greater relative cooling than the avoidance of the equivalent amount of CO2 emissions over the same period, but less relative cooling after ∼2060, when almost all CH4 emitted during the 2020s has been removed from the atmosphere but much of the CO2 emitted during the 2020s remains. However, if the GMP places the world on a lower CH4 emissions trajectory after 2030, this results in a persistently and substantially greater reduction to global warming than the equivalent change in the CO2 emissions trajectory, with a maximum difference of 0.22 ± 0.06 ∘C in 2055 and relative cooling for well over a century. This equates to a large difference in avoided climate change damages if momentum in CH4 emission reduction from the GMP can be sustained after the 2020s. While the greatest reduction in warming is obtained by reducing both CH4 and CO2 emissions, our results underscore the striking global societal benefits of sustained reduction in CH4 emissions.

Wasting CO2and the Clean Development Mechanism: The remarkable success of a climate failure

This paper examines how global climate mitigation policies articulate with urban political–ecological transformations. It focuses on South African waste-to-value projects as case studies, exploring how local processes of urban ecological modernization combine with global climate finance through the now largely defunct Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Whilst it is generally recognized that waste-related CDM projects in South Africa (and elsewhere) have been an unmitigated failure in terms of climate and socio-economic benefits, we demonstrate that landfill-to-gas/energy projects have functioned effectively as geographical–discursive dispositifs through which particular knowledge systems are enrolled, specific ‘solutions’ are projected, and singular imaginaries of what is possible and desirable foregrounded, thereby crowding out alternative possibilities. This not only nurtures the commodification and marketization of non-human matter with an eye towards sustaining capital accumulation but, rather more importantly, successfully installs state-orchestrated private property relations around common resources, thereby deepening the dispossessing socio-ecological relations upon which expanded capitalist reproduction rests. We argue that whilst the formal outcome of the CDM is a failure, its success resides precisely in how it permitted local and global elites to create administrative and regulatory practices that solidify and naturalize a neoliberal market-based framework to approach the climate crisis.

Machine Learning Predicts the Methane Clumped Isotopologue (12CH2D2) Distributions Constrain Biogeochemical Processes and Estimates the Potential Budget.

Methane (CH4) is a matter of environmental concern; however, global methane isotopologue data remain inadequate. This is due to the challenges posed by high-resolution testing technology and the need for larger sample volumes. Here, worldwide methane clumped isotope databases (n = 465) were compiled. We compared machine-learning (ML) models and used random forest (RF) to predict new Δ12CH2D2 distributions, which cover valuable and hard-to-replicate methane clumped isotope experimental data. Our RF model yields a reliable and continuous database including ruminants, acetoclastic methane, multiple pyrolysis, and controlled experiments. We showed the effectiveness of utilizing a new data set to quantify isotopologue fractionations in biogeochemical methane processes, as well as predicting the steady-state atmospheric methane clumped isotope composition (Δ13CH3D of +2.26 ± 0.71‰ and Δ12CH2D2 of +62.06 ± 4.42‰) with notable biological contributions. Our measured summer and winter water emitted gases (n = 6) demonstrated temperature-driven seasonal microbial community evolution determined by atmospheric clumped isotope temporal variations (Δ 13CH3D ∼ -0.91 ± 0.25 ‰ and Δ12CH2D2 ∼ +3.86 ± 0.84 ‰), which in turn is relevant for future models quantifying the contribution of methane sources and sinks. Predicting clumped isotopologues translates our methane geochemical understanding into quantifiable variables for modeling that can continue to improve predictions and potentially inform global greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation policy.

Who Is Responsible for the Climate Crisis? A Perspective from the Global South

ABSTRACT This article argues that insistence on adaptation to climate change, popularised by the rich nations of the Global North, is crowding out discussions on mitigation strategies. Mitigation (or degrowth) is central to formulating a fair and collective strategy to tackle the climate crisis at the global scale. In this context, we have calculated the historical cumulative emissions, material footprints, and carbon debt, which are essential prerequisites to tackling the climate crisis. This article empirically proves that the Global North owes a huge carbon debt based on historical cumulative emissions. We estimate the carbon debt of all the outlier countries (carbon debtors) to be US$ 3127.28 trillion, of which the US (the United States) and EU (European Union, including 28 countries) owe US$ 1174.19 and US$ 771.90 trillion, respectively. The paper concludes that any adaptation policy requires settling this debt through directly financing adaptation operations in the poor countries of the Global South and effective mitigation (de-growth) policies in the Global North.

The risks of the wrong climate policy for developing countries: Scenarios for South Africa

In this paper, a demand-driven growth model is used to explore climate change scenarios faced by the South African economy. The focus is on key macroeconomic variables including employment, productivity, income distribution, trade, and fiscal balances. Results show that emission reduction alone will not put South Africa on a sustainable and equitable growth path. Expansionary macroeconomic policies are necessary. We show that, under sufficient global mitigation, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies lead to faster output and productivity growth, higher employment, and lower inequality. By contrast, macroeconomic tightening or “free riding” on global emission reduction lead to inferior outcomes, putting sustainable development out of reach.

Mapping Building-Based Spatiotemporal Distributions of Carbon Dioxide Emission: A Case Study in England.

The spatiotemporal inventory of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the building sector is significant for formulating regional and global warming mitigation policies. Previous studies have attempted to use energy consumption models associated with field investigations to estimate CO2 emissions from buildings at local scales, or they used spatial proxies to downscale emission sources from large geographic units to grid cells for larger scales. However, mapping the spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 emissions on a large scale based on buildings remains challenging. Hence, we conducted a case study in England in 2015, wherein we developed linear regression models to analyze monthly CO2 emissions at the building scale by integrating the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, building data, and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite night-time lights images. The results showed that the proposed model that considered building data and night-time light imagery achieved the best fit. Fine-scale spatial heterogeneity was observed in the distributions of building-based CO2 emissions compared to grid-based emission maps. In addition, we observed seasonal differences in CO2 emissions. Specifically, buildings emitted significantly more CO2 in winter than in summer in England. We believe our results have great potential for use in carbon neutrality policy making and climate monitoring.

Top-down or bottom-up? Norwegian climate mitigation policy as a contested hybrid of policy approaches

It is widely accepted that the Paris Agreement implies a shift in global climate mitigation policy from a top-down approach focused on global distribution of emission cuts and international cost-effectiveness to a bottom-up approach based on national efforts. Less is known about how this shift at the global level trickles down and manifests in national climate mitigation policy. Norway is in this respect an interesting example, since it has long been portrayed as an important driver of an international top-down approach. In this paper, we demonstrate that Norwegian policy cannot be characterised as a ‘pure’ top-down regime; policy instruments and measures directed at specific technology investments and deployment to complement cost-effective (international) policy instruments have been an explicit government ambition for a long time. Second, by using the case of biofuels, we analyse how the two approaches have been combined in practice over the past decade. Using the notion of ‘hybrid management’, we demonstrate that the top-down approach has left a lasting imprint on Norwegian mitigation policy, but also that this approach has increasingly been challenged by bottom-up thinking, leaving Norwegian climate mitigation policy as a contested hybrid of policy approaches. We conclude that inadequate institutional arrangements for productively managing the tensions between the two approaches have hampered progress in Norwegian policy in curbing domestic emissions. We expect that Norwegian climate mitigation will become increasingly hybridised in the coming decades, and suggest that cultivating hybridisation can be a productive approach for policy progress.

Mapping the biotic degradation hazard of wood in Europe – biophysical background, engineering applications, and climate change-induced prospects

AbstractConstruction using timber has seen a resurgence in light of global climate mitigation policies. Wood is a renewable resource, and engineered wood products are proving to be competitive against concrete and steel while having several advantages. However, while the renewable nature of wood in construction is a beneficial property for climate mitigation policies, the process of biodegradation introduces a challenge for service life planning. A review of hazard mapping is presented while developing contemporary hazard maps, occurrence maps and projected hazard maps for 2050 using representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. The risk of timber decay is expected to increase in most of Europe as the temperatures rise, with a decrease expected in dryer regions. Termites are likely to experience a range expansion as more areas become suitable, while human activity and an increase in extreme weather events like floods are expected to facilitate dispersion. Marine borer species already present a risk in most European coastal regions; however, the effect of changes in water temperatures are likely to shift the boundaries for individual borer species. Overall, warmer climates are expected to increase the metabolic activity of all of these organisms leading to a general reduction in service life.

Greenhouse gas emissions in British Columbia: Production versus consumption accounting from 2010 to 2015

As a result of carbon-pricing policies, a number of jurisdictions across the world claim to be decoupling their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their gross domestic product (GDP). In British Columbia (BC), Canada, in what appears to be decoupling from 2007 to 2018, GHGs with respect to GDP declined by 16% ( BC Government 2020 ). This finding, however, is the result of a production-based method of accounting—the predominant global approach for allocating emissions—and not a consumption-based method. In this study, we compare these two accounting methods with respect to British Columbian decoupling. We calculate consumption-based emissions through a multi-regional input-output analysis from 2010 to 2015. In our results for 2015, we find total consumption emissions of 82.5Mt of CO 2 e; when compared to the total production emissions of 73.7Mt of CO 2 e, we find BC to be a net consumer of emissions by 8.8Mt of CO 2 e for 2015. Although BC has had this net consumer status since at least 2004 ( Dobson and Fellows, 2017 ), this orientation is in decline primarily due to the decarbonizing trends of China and the USA. In short, for BC from 2010–2015, on a per capita basis, both production and consumption accounts of emissions declined (even as GDP rose), but per capita consumption accounts declined more than production accounts and mostly due to emissions reductions from trade partners. Finally, this study may be of interest to policymakers and scientists, and like other scholars, we recommend that consumption-based inventories accompany production-based accounts when designing and assessing global GHG mitigation policy.

Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions over metropolitan areas from space: A multi-model analysis of OCO-2 data over Lahore, Pakistan

Urban areas, where more than 55% of the global population gathers, contribute more than 70% of anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2ff) emissions. Accurate quantification of CO2ff emissions from urban areas is of great importance for formulating global warming mitigation policies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Satellite-based inversion techniques are unique among “top-down” approaches, potentially allowing us to track CO2ff emission changes over cities globally. However, their accuracy is still limited by incomplete background information, cloud blockages, aerosol contamination, and uncertainties in models and priori emission inventories. To evaluate the current potential of space-based quantification techniques, we present the first attempt to monitor long-term changes in CO2ff emissions based on the OCO-2 satellite measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) over a fast-growing Asian metropolitan area: Lahore, Pakistan. We first examined the OCO-2 data availability at global scale. About 17% of OCO-2 soundings over the global 70 most populated cities from 2014 to 2019 are marked as high-quality. Cloud blockage and aerosol contamination are the two main causes of data loss. As an attempt to recover additional soundings, we evaluated the effectiveness of OCO-2 quality flags at the city level by comparing three flux quantification methods (WRF-Chem, X-STILT, and the flux cross-sectional integration method). The satellite/bottom-up emissions (OCO-2/ODIAC) ratios of the high-quality tracks with reduced uncertainties in emissions are better agreed across the three methods compared to the all-data tracks. This demonstrates that OCO-2 quality flags are useful filters of low-quality OCO-2 retrievals at local scales. All three methods consistently suggested that the ratio medians are greater than 1, implying that the ODIAC slightly underestimated CO2ff emissions over Lahore. Additionally, our estimation of the a posteriori CO2ff emission trend was about 734 kt C/year (i.e., an annual 6.7% increase). 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the Mann-Kendall upward trend test showed that less than 10% prior uncertainty for 8 tracks (or less than 20% prior uncertainty for 25 tracks) is required to achieve a greater-than-50% trend significant possibility at a 95% confidence level. It implies that the trend is driven by the prior and not due to the assimilation of OCO-2 retrievals. The key to improving the role of satellite data in CO2 emission trend detection lies in collecting more frequent high-quality tracks near metropolitan areas to achieve significant constraints from XCO2 retrievals.

Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions Embodied in the International Trade of Russia

Our study improves the decomposition method based on the input–output approach to analyze CO2 emissions embodied in the international trade of Russia over the period from 1995 to 2014. The research finds out that carbon was transferred from the upstream resource sectors to the downstream manufacturing sectors and service sectors in Russia. Moreover, Russia was a net exporter of CO2 emissions. 31.46% of Russia’s CO2 emissions were generated for other countries’ consumption in 1999 while 10.68% in 2013. Basic resource and energy sectors were the significant emitters of exporting CO2 emissions. Sectors from traditional manufacturing industries and modern technical industries played an important role in importing embodied CO2 emissions of Russia. Moreover, the effect of modern technical industries on importing embodied CO2 emissions was increasing. The period after 2003 witnessed a substantial decline in Russia’s carbon intensities, which was majorly due to the transformation of the energy structure. Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in the international trade can show the trading effect on embodied CO2 emissions from both exporting and importing perspectives. Russia’s case is able to provide instructive implications to the global climate mitigation policy. Countries that burden CO2 emissions for other countries’ consumption are encouraged to participate in the climate negotiation effectively and internalize environmental costs by products’ and services’ pricing in the international trade.

Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs.

Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9GtCO2 /year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Climate change is having an increasing effect on human society and ecosystems. The United Nations has established 17 sustainable development goals, one of which is to cope with climate change. How to scientifically explore uncertainties and hazards brought about by climate change in the future is crucial. The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project climate change scenarios. SSP has been analyzed globally, but how regions and nations respond to the global climate change and mitigation policies is seldom explored, which do not meet the demand for regional environmental assessment and social sustainable development. Therefore, in this paper, we reviewed and discussed how SSPs were applied to regions, and this can be summarized into four main categories: (1) integrated assessment model (IAM) scenario analysis, (2) SSPs-RCPs-SPAs framework scenario analysis, (3) downscaling global impact assessment model, and (4) regional impact assessment model simulation. The study provides alternative ways to project land use, water resource, energy, and ecosystem service in regions, which can carry out related policies and actions to address climate change in advance and help achieve sustainable development.

Carbon footprint accounts of Pakistan: an input-output life cycle assessment model.

The Paris agreement (2015) seems a significant achievement towards a global mitigation policy to climate change. However, implementing the promised Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets by the participating countries has become a real challenge. In this aspect, the input-output life cycle assessment (IO-LCA) model provides an important assessment mechanism to design suitable abatement policies limiting the rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The present paper develops an IO-LCA model for Pakistan and estimates all the direct and indirect GHG emissions caused by all the production activities during all the stages of production. This task is achieved in three phases. In phase 1, the Pakistan input-output table (IOT) is constructed. In phase 2, the GHG environmental satellite accounts are created for each sector in the economy. In phase 3, the GHG emissions are linked to different categories of final demand.

Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.

Power system expansion planning under global and local emission mitigation policies

This work analyzes the impacts on the power system expansion planning of implementing CO2 and local pollutant emission taxes under five different policy-relevant scenarios. To do this, we have formulated and implemented an optimization model based on a mixed-integer linear program, which determines the optimal expansion plan considering the installation of both large-scale power plants and renewable-based distributed generation. An important characteristic of the proposed model is that it includes a detailed formulation of the power system. Moreover, differently than existing literature, special attention is given to the analysis of the spatial-temporal distributive effects of pollutant taxes, considering both global and local pollutant emissions. The method is applied to the main Chilean power system. Our results indicate that global and local pollutant taxes significantly impact both planning and operational decisions in the power system. In particular, pollutant taxes may have significant spatial distributive effects, as shown in the analysis of 13 regions of Chile, leading to damages in some specific regions while relatively benefiting others. Our results also show that the availability of renewable energy capacity may improve the effectiveness of pollutant taxes. Particularly, adding 1.5 GW of hydro capacity to the Chilean system allows avoiding around 32 GWh of fossil fuel generation per year, saving more than 1.5 billion US$ in the 10-year horizon considered. The proposed method and qualitative results are sufficiently generic to apply to any other jurisdiction.