Future Vegetation Research Articles

Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.

Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and mature tree species are long-lived with relatively high tolerance for sub-optimal growing conditions. Here, we used a combination of empirical and process-based modeling approaches to examine vegetation projections across high-inertia forests of Washington State, USA, under different climate and wildfire futures. We ran our models without forest management (to assess inherent system behavior/potential) and also with wildfire suppression. Projections suggested relatively stable mid-elevation forests through the end of the century despite anticipated increases in wildfire. The largest changes were projected at the lowest and uppermost forest boundaries, with upward expansion of the driest low-elevation forests and contraction of cold, high-elevation subalpine parklands. While forests were overall relatively stable in simulations, increases in early-seral conditions and decreases in late-seral conditions occurred as wildfire became more frequent. With partial fire suppression, projected changes were dampened or delayed, suggesting a potential tool to forestall change in some (but not all) high-inertia forests, especially since extending fire-free periods does little to alter overall fire regimes in these systems. Model projections also illustrated the importance of fire regime context and projection limitations; the time horizon over which disturbances will eventually allow the system to shift are so long that the prevailing climatic conditions under which many of those shifts will occur are beyond what most climate models can predict with any certainty. This will present a fundamental challenge to setting expectations and managing for long-term change in these systems.

Tracking indigenous forest cover within an urban matrix through land use analysis: The case of a rapidly developing African city

Indigenous forests in South Africa (SA), like elsewhere in the developing world, are biodiverse but threatened. In SA, approximately 16.5% of indigenous forests occur within KwaZulu-Natal, including the eThekwini Municipal Area (EMA). The EMA is a rapidly developing city in which development and urbanisation threaten the forest biome. Using land cover datasets in conjunction with high resolution images, this study assessed the effects of land use changes on indigenous forest cover within the EMA between 2000 and 2014. Results indicated that forest cover decreased by 24% between 2000 and 2005, and a further 29% between 2005 and 2014. Forests were mainly lost to urban development and agriculture. Land use predictions (accuracy values >80%) based on a Markov model for 2025 and 2035 also indicate a declining trend in forest cover. These findings validate the use of remote sensing analyses and Markov models in developing a dynamic monitoring framework for decision-making around forest management and conservation. Furthermore, in providing the first assessment of indigenous forest loss within the EMA, the study also provides valuable insight into the usefulness of mapping present and future vegetation, specifically forest cover within a rapidly developing city through land use analysis.

How Does Climate Change Influence the Economic Value of Ecosystem Services in Savanna Rangelands?

Savanna rangelands provide essential ecosystem services to people. Intense land-use and climate change may degrade ecosystems and influence the provision of ecosystem services. Complex dynamic vegetation models can simulate future vegetation and how vegetation may interact with land-use. Yet, identification of best-practice management directives in the face of climate change is challenging and requires consideration of socio-economic aspects. Here, we developed an economic model to describe the value of key ecosystem services, namely fuelwood harvesting and livestock, and coupled it with aDGVM, a vegetation model for tropical ecosystems. We used simulation optimization to identify land-use strategies that maximize economic value to stakeholders in the planning horizon until 2050, and compared it to realistic land-use intensities. We found that realistic intensities exceed optimal intensities, indicating the tragedy of the commons and external stress factors, prevalent in many rural savanna rangelands. We show that a reduction in fuelwood harvesting until 2050 allows vegetation to recover but that recovery is slow. We conclude that strong governance is important in rural savanna rangelands to ensure sustainable use of resources under future climate conditions. The coupled ecological-economic model can serve as tool to develop sustainable land-use strategies in complex socio-ecological systems globally.

Photosynthetic response of Scirpus validus and Typha orientalis to elevated temperatures in Dianchi Lake, Southwestern China

Understanding the effects of simulated warming on photosynthetic performance of aquatic plants may provide strong supports for predicting future dynamics of wetland ecosystems in the context of climate change. The plateau wetlands located in Yunnan province are highly sensitive to climate warming due to their high altitude and cold temperature. Here, we conducted a temperaturecontrolled experiment using two temperature manipulations (ambient temperature as the control and 2°C higher than ambient temperature as the warmed treatment) to determine the photosynthetic characteristics of two lakeside dominant species (Scirpus validus Vahl and Typha orientalis C. Presl.) in Dianchi Lake. Net photosynthetic rate (Pn), stomatal conductance (Gs), intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci), and transpiration rate of S. validus that grew under warmed treatment were all significantly higher than those under the control. Gs and Ci of T. orientalis showed similar patterns as S. validus did. For the response curves of Pn to photosynthetic active radiation (Pn-PAR) and intercellular CO2 concentration (Pn-Ci), S. validus had higher Pn values under elevated temperatures than the control, while Pn-PAR and Pn-Ci curves of T. orientalis did not separate clearly under two temperature scenarios. Both S. validus and T. orientalis had higher maximum net photosynthetic rate, light saturation point, dark respiration rate, the maximum rate of RuBP carboxylation (Vcmax), maximum electron transport rate driving RuBP regeneration (Jmax), the ratio of Vcmax to Jmax, triosephosphate utilization, and 1, 5-bishosphate carboxylase ribulose content under warmed treatment than those under the control. This study provides a preliminary step for predicting the future primary production and vegetation dynamics of plateau wetlands in Yunnan province.

Large-scale vegetation history in China and its response to climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum

Large-scale palaeovegetation reconstruction plays a critical role in improving our understanding of the response of vegetation to climate change and in reducing the uncertainty in predictions of vegetation change under global warming scenarios. Here, we present quantitative vegetation reconstructions for China since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), using 286 selected fossil pollen records analyzed using the biomization method. The results show that from 23 to 19 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), steppe and desert expanded southeastwards, dominating northern China, whereas forest in eastern China shrank southwards to near the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; the percentage of forested sites at this time was the lowest during the studied interval. Forest then developed gradually during 18–12 ka. During the early and middle Holocene, tropical seasonal forest, broad-leaved evergreen/warm mixed forest, and temperate deciduous forest shifted northwards by 2°, 4° and 5° in latitude, respectively, relative to today, and then declined in the late Holocene. In detail, forest flourished in the middle Holocene (9–4 ka) in semi-arid and semi-humid northern China, whereas it reached a maximum in the early and middle Holocene (11.5–6 ka) in humid southern China. Our results suggest that although forest throughout China exhibited the expected response to the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon, precipitation exerted a more significant effect on vegetation change in northern China, whereas temperature and precipitation played a more important role in southern China. Our results are a potentially useful reference for assessing future vegetation dynamics under global warming scenarios.

Larval crowding during an insect outbreak reduces herbivory pressure on preferred shrubs in a warmer environment

With warming climate many species are predicted to shift their distributions toward the poles. However, climate change models developed to predict species distributions do not always incorporate interactions between them. The northerly shift of the boreal forest and associated dwarf shrub communities will be directly affected by warming. But warming will also indirectly affect plant communities via impacts on the intensity and frequency of associated insect outbreaks. We present a general model exploring plant host herbivory in response to the balance between insect crowding, host consumption and climate. We examined how these factors dictate the feeding preference of Epirrita autumnata larvae during an outbreak on dwarf shrub vegetation in Sub-arctic Fennoscandia. Data were collected from an outdoor experiment investigating future climate change scenarios (elevated CO2 and temperature) on the dwarf shrub community that included deciduous (Vaccinium myrtillus) and evergreen species (V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum nigrum). We observed that larval crowding was independent of treatment under outbreak conditions. We also tested and confirmed model predictions that larvae would prefer monospecific stands of either deciduous shrubs or its evergreen competitors. For current climate conditions, larvae had a preference to consume more deciduous shrubs in mixed stands. However, at elevated temperature bilberry consumption and herbivore pressure was lower, particularly in mixed stands. Our results show that during future warming, E. autumnata herbivory could promote the success of thermophile deciduous species and possible northward migration. Insect behaviour and preferences should therefore be considered when predicting future vegetation movements responding to warming.

Soil seed bank assay methods influence interpretation of non‐native plant management

AbstractQuestionsIn the assessment of a soil seed bank at invaded sites, do sampling at different microsite types and use of different assessment methods yield different results, which may influence interpretation of management effectiveness and potential for native plant restoration?LocationSaguaro National Park, Arizona, United States.MethodsSeed bank samples were collected from two microsite types (below‐shrub canopies and interspaces between perennial plants) at plots within Pennisetum ciliare‐invaded and untreated sites, non‐invaded sites and sites with five frequencies of Pennisetum‐removal treatments. Seed bank samples were characterized by seedling emergence and seed extraction methods.ResultsAssay method influenced whether we detected a significant Pennisetum‐removal treatment response on Pennisetum detected in the seed bank. A treatment response was not observed using the emergence method. Using the extraction method, we found that untreated Pennisetum plots contained significantly more Pennisetum seed than removal treatments. Treatments did not affect detection of native seed banks using either method. Microsite type only had an effect on seed detected using the emergence method, where more perennial species and seed densities were detected below shrubs. Native species richness and estimated seed densities using extraction were correlated with emergence results (r = 0.52, N = 42, p < 0.001 and r = 0.56; N = 42, p < 0.001, respectively).ConclusionsResults highlight several considerations for how different seed bank methods can influence interpretation of management treatments. Along with vegetation surveys, seed bank observations indicate that removal treatments successfully reduced Pennisetum in soil seed banks at invaded sites relative to invaded untreated sites. Natives were a significant proportion of seed banks, showing potential for native plants to establish after treatments of non‐native plants. Results suggest potential to calibrate seed bank methods with each other to reconcile differences. Because viability of extracted seed was uncertain, further analysis may be necessary to test which assay method best predicts future vegetation.

Anticipating fire‐mediated impacts of climate change using a demographic framework

Abstract Climate change indirectly affects forest ecosystems through changes in the frequency, size, and/or severity of wildfires. In addition to its direct effects prior to fire, climate also influences immediate postfire recruitment, with consequences for future vegetation structure and fire activity. A major uncertainty, therefore, is if, when and where vegetation shifts will occur. With an emphasis on species traits, we use a demographic framework to examine how the interaction of changing climate and fire will affect postfire woody vegetation recruitment and the likelihood of vegetation shifts. Each demographic stage – adult mortality, propagule availability, seed germination, seedling establishment, and seedling survival – serves as a filter through which a species must pass for establishment and recovery to occur. We apply this framework to case studies in western North American forests, including boreal and southwestern U.S. Pinus ponderosa forests, to help understand the mechanisms behind recent postfire vegetation changes. The case studies highlight how changes in climate and fire properties will make it increasingly difficult for some species to pass through each demographic filter in the future. As climate warming continues, we expect increased dominance of species that resprout following fire, maintain canopy or soil seed banks, have long distance seed dispersal, produce drought‐tolerant seedlings, and/or reach reproductive maturity quickly. The persistence of postfire vegetation shifts will depend the on ratio of recovery time to disturbance interval(s). An advantage of the demographic‐filter framework is that it places emphasis on mechanisms, thus improving our ability to anticipate future vegetation shifts. As such, it highlights the clear need for more mechanistic studies of postfire recruitment to disentangle the relative effects of multiple drivers in postfire environments. A plain language summary is available for this article.

Susceptibility of nine alpine species to the root rot pathogens Phytophthora cinnamomi and P. cambivora

Phytophthora species are associated with disease in horticulture, agriculture and natural vegetation worldwide but are not well known in cold areas. In Australia, alpine regions have been regarded as unsuitable for the survival and disease expression of Phytophthora cinnamomi, which has caused catastrophic damage to vegetation in other parts of the country. Phytophthora cambivora, on the other hand, has been detected recently in the roots of an endemic alpine shrub (Nematolepis ovatifolia) and may already be exerting pressure on alpine vegetation. We conducted glasshouse susceptibility trials on nine Australian alpine and subalpine shrub species to P. cambivora and P. cinnamomi. The pathogens were re-isolated from the roots of most test species but for some species, few replicates were infected and few died. One species (Phebalium squamulosum) was regarded as highly susceptible with most plants in inoculated pots dying and both pathogens being commonly isolated from roots. The climatic conditions of most populations of the test species are currently unsuitable for disease expression from P. cinnamomi. However, the projected change in temperature in the Australian Alps with climate change will expose most populations of eight of the species to P. cinnamomi activity by 2070. Pathogens are likely to be important drivers of future vegetation in many mountainous areas which are currently not within their range of survival and pathogenesis. Management of these areas should include hygiene and pathogen monitoring, and minimise disturbances that heighten stress for susceptible species.

Large sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal variation in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity.

Summary Plant temperature responses vary geographically, reflecting thermally contrasting habitats and long‐term species adaptations to their climate of origin. Plants also can acclimate to fast temporal changes in temperature regime to mitigate stress. Although plant photosynthetic responses are known to acclimate to temperature, many global models used to predict future vegetation and climate–carbon interactions do not include this process.We quantify the global and regional impacts of biogeographical variability and thermal acclimation of temperature response of photosynthetic capacity on the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle between 1860 and 2100 within a coupled climate–carbon cycle model, that emulates 22 global climate models.Results indicate that inclusion of biogeographical variation in photosynthetic temperature response is most important for present‐day and future C uptake, with increasing importance of thermal acclimation under future warming. Accounting for both effects narrows the range of predictions of the simulated global land C storage in 2100 across climate projections (29% and 43% globally and in the tropics, respectively).Contrary to earlier studies, our results suggest that thermal acclimation of photosynthetic capacity makes tropical and temperate C less vulnerable to warming, but reduces the warming‐induced C uptake in the boreal region under elevated CO2.

Prediction of vegetation dynamics using NDVI time series data and LSTM

Understanding and analyzing the changes in vegetation cover is very important in several aspects including climatic changes, water budget, ecological balance and specially to undertake necessary conservation measures. The concept of neural network has gained much significance in the analysis of vegetation dynamics using remote sensing satellite data. In the current study an attempt has been made to predict the vegetation dynamics using MODIS NDVI time series data sets and long short term memory network, an advanced technique adapted from the artificial neural network. The dataset of 861 NDVI images from January 2000 to June 2016 is used for making the time series. The data is segregated into three sets which comprises of training set (70%), validation set (20%), and testing set (10%). To check the reliability of the experiment we have finalised two different regions after extensive research for investigation. These include different terrains in the Great Nicobar Islands, one region along the coast where vegetation has severe ecological damage due to 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the other, an interior region which remained imperturbable during the tsunami. Long short term memory network, an advanced neural network is trained with these NDVI values for both the regions separately to predict the future vegetation dynamics. To measure the accuracy of the LSTM network, root mean square error is calculated. The resulting plots from both the experiments indicate that the long short-term memory neural network follows the series in addition to coinciding with the required time series. Also, an unanticipated change in the trend of the NDVI series were well adapted by the network and was able to predict the future NDVI values with good accuracy maintaining RMSE less than 0.03 without providing any supplementary data. By adopting the prescribed method in the paper, anticipation of vegetation changes can be done accurately much ahead of time and take proactive measures accordingly to safeguard and improve the vegetation in any area.

Increasing stomatal conductance in response to rising atmospheric CO2.

Studies have indicated that plant stomatal conductance (gs) decreases in response to elevated atmospheric CO2, a phenomenon of significance for the global hydrological cycle. However, gs increases across certain CO2 ranges have been predicted by optimization models. The aim of this work was to demonstrate that under certain environmental conditions, gs can increase in response to elevated CO2. Using (1) an extensive, up-to-date synthesis of gs responses in free air CO2 enrichment (FACE)experiments, (2) in situ measurements across four biomes showing dynamic gs responses to a CO2 rise of ~50 ppm (characterizing the change in this greenhouse gas over the past three decades) and (3) a photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model, it is demonstrated that gs can in some cases increase in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. Field observations are corroborated by an extensive synthesis of gs responses in FACE experiments showing that 11.8 % of gs responses under experimentally elevated CO2 are positive. They are further supported by a strong data-model fit (r2 = 0.607) using a stomatal optimization model applied to the field gs dataset. A parameter space identified in the Farquhar-Ball-Berry photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model confirms field observations of increasing gs under elevated CO2 in hot dry conditions. Contrary to the general assumption, positive gs responses to elevated CO2, although relatively rare, are a feature of woody taxa adapted to warm, low-humidity conditions, and this response is also demonstrated in global simulations using the Community Land Model (CLM4). The results contradict the over-simplistic notion that global vegetation always responds with decreasing gs to elevated CO2, a finding that has important implications for predicting future vegetation feedbacks on the hydrological cycle at the regional level.

Palaeoecological data as a tool to predict possible future vegetation changes in the boreal forest zone of European Russia: a case study from the Central Forest Biosphere Reserve

New multi-proxy records (pollen, testate amoebae, and charcoal) were applied to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the boreal forest area of the southern part of Valdai Hills (the Central Forest Biosphere Reserve) during the Holocene. The reconstructions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation, the climate moisture index (CMI), peatland surface moisture, and fire activity have shown that climate change has a significant impact on the boreal forests of European Russia. Temperature growth and decreased moistening during the warmest phases of the Holocene Thermal Maximum in 7.0-6.2 ka BP and 6.0-5.5 ka BP and in the relatively warm phase in 3.4-2.5 ka BP led to structural changes in plant communities, specifically an increase in the abundance of broadleaf tree species in forest stands and the suppression of Picea. The frequency of forest fires was higher in that period, and it resulted in the replacement of spruce forests by secondary stands with Betula and Pinus. Despite significant changes in the climatic parameters projected for the 21st century using even the optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, the time lag between climate changes and vegetation responses makes any catastrophic vegetation disturbances (due to natural reasons) in the area in the 21st century unlikely.

Long-term investigations and experimental manipulations: Useful perspectives for applied vegetation studies

Long-term investigations and experimental manipulations: Useful perspectives for applied vegetation studies

Biome changes and their inferred climatic drivers in northern and eastern continental Asia at selected times since 40 cal ka bp

Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the “arctic greening”) will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species.

Vegetation of Croatia: Phytosociological classification of the high-rank syntaxa

AbstractCroatia is among the most ecologically diverse and floristically rich countries in Europe, with a great variety of communities. The vegetation elaboration according to the standard central European method was initiated in Croatia at the beginning of the 20thcentury. In previous overviews of Croatian vegetation, the number of classes and alliances was underrepresented in relation to the country’s floristic richness. Furthermore, the level of knowledge and the amount of available data varied greatly among the various types of vegetation. The aims of this paper are mainly to compile a stabile syntaxonomic list of classes, orders and alliances dominated by vascular plants in Croatia and to adjust Croatian vegetation to the new European syntaxonomic system (EuroVegChecklist). It introduces a consistent description of high-rank syntaxa in Croatian. In conclusion, the vegetation of Croatia comprises 66 classes, 121 orders and 201 alliances. The number of syntaxa shows vegetation diversity that is rather high compared to most other European countries; this is related to the high floristic richness and endemism. The list points out the obvious problems and gaps in our knowledge of vegetation in Croatia and can serve as a baseline for the future vegetation studies.

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature–eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

Elevational transplantation suggests different responses of African submontane and savanna plants to climate warming

Abstract Despite strong climate change in the tropics, little is known about the responses of tropical plants to changing environments. Moreover, while variation in responses to climate change across plant functional groups may help to predict future vegetation dynamics, tropical multi‐species studies are missing. To study plant responses to changes in temperature, we compared the survival, growth and reproduction of 101 herbaceous species originating from the savanna and the submontane vegetation zones in two experimental gardens representing the climate of both zones at Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Additionally, we tested whether plant functional groups, such as annuals and perennials, shade‐tolerant and shade‐intolerant species, grasses and forbs, and natives and exotics differ in their responses to transplantation. We show that the submontane species in the lower Kilimanjaro area clearly prefer the cooler submontane temperature in terms of survival, growth and reproduction, while savanna plants can grow equally well under both, the submontane and the savanna temperature regimes. This suggests that tropical submontane plants will likely face severe challenges with future climate warming and that the upper distributional limit of savanna plants may be due to biotic interactions rather than to climate. Moreover, we found different responses of grasses and forbs, and natives and exotics to transplantation irrespective of their origin, underlining the importance of considering plant functional groups in climate change research. Synthesis. We demonstrate different responses of tropical submontane and savanna plants to experimental temperature variation. Together with the observed differences between important functional plant groups, this leads us to suggest that strong future changes in vegetation composition on African tropical mountains are likely.

Study of Some Highly Eroded Wasteland Soils of Cherrapunjee, Meghalaya and Its Bio-Rejuvenation Possibilities

Cherrapunjee has ragged terrains and deep slopes. Barren rocks without any vegetation cover are dominating feature of the area. Study on soil physico-chemical properties done for re-establishment of vegetation in near future. Soils were shallow, coarse textured, less fertile in terms of available nutrient (N, P, K and Ca, Mg), and are acidic. Soil erosion is severe. Dominant plant species are Saccharum spontanum, Neyraudia reynaudiana, Setaria glauca, Axonopus compressus, and Imperata cylindrica. Some dicotyledonous species such as Trifolium repens, Robustum spp, Schima wallichii, Eugenia sp., Musanda sp. Toona ciliata, Pandanus odoratissimus, Erythrina arborescens, Myrica esculenta, Pinus kesiya, Alnus nepalensis, Exbucklandia populania etc. were observed as natural vegetation in patches. Soil conservation practices such as bench terrace, stone bunding, grassed water ways etc. can be adopted. Soil erosion could be controlled by developing grasses and pasture land. Planting nitrogen fixing herbs and shrubs at the initial stage may be done for buildup of soil nutrient and organic matter. Soil mulching along with the fertilizer treatment may prove effective for initial establishment of plantation.

Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 73:125-133 (2017) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01459 Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway Stein Rune Karlsen1,*, Hans Tømmervik2, Bernt Johansen1, Jan Åge Riseth1 1Norut Northern Research Institute, PO Box 6434, 9294 Tromsø, Norway 2Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM - High North Centre for Climate and the Environment, PO Box 6606 Langnes, 9296 Tromsø, Norway *Corresponding author: stein.rune.karlsen@norut.no‑Advance View was available online May 18, 2017 ABSTRACT: Finnmarksvidda is Norway’s largest mountain plateau, located in the Arctic/alpine-boreal transition area. The area is also a central winter grazing area for the reindeer herds of the indigenous Sámi people. This study develops a bioclimatic-based model to simulate future potential vegetation, with a focus on forest types. The model utilizes a bioclimatic study in the region, where vegetation types have been grouped according to minimum summer temperature demands. This is then used as a base for modelling of future vegetation. Due to the flat landscape of Finnmarksvidda, the model shows that a 1°C increase in summer temperatures will potentially lead to an increase of forested areas by 4485 km2, which is a 70% increase from the current 6900 km2 to a simulated 11706 km2. This in turn will lead to a reduction of Arctic-alpine heaths from 4440 km2 today to potentially only 670 km2. Such changes will have consequences for the reindeer grazing system, as the predicted changes will lead to a decrease in the vegetation types that have high winter grazing accessibility for reindeer, from 2386 km2 today to potentially only 377 km2. On the other hand, vegetation types with medium accessibility will experience an increase, from 2857 to 3366 km2. KEY WORDS: Climate warming · Bioclimatic model · Temperature driver · Future forest · Treeline · Reindeer herding Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Karlsen SR, Tømmervik H, Johansen B, Riseth JÅ (2017) Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway. Clim Res 73:125-133. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01459 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 73, No. 1-2. Online publication date: August 21, 2017 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2017 Inter-Research.