Tracking indigenous forest cover within an urban matrix through land use analysis: The case of a rapidly developing African city

Abstract

Indigenous forests in South Africa (SA), like elsewhere in the developing world, are biodiverse but threatened. In SA, approximately 16.5% of indigenous forests occur within KwaZulu-Natal, including the eThekwini Municipal Area (EMA). The EMA is a rapidly developing city in which development and urbanisation threaten the forest biome. Using land cover datasets in conjunction with high resolution images, this study assessed the effects of land use changes on indigenous forest cover within the EMA between 2000 and 2014. Results indicated that forest cover decreased by 24% between 2000 and 2005, and a further 29% between 2005 and 2014. Forests were mainly lost to urban development and agriculture. Land use predictions (accuracy values >80%) based on a Markov model for 2025 and 2035 also indicate a declining trend in forest cover. These findings validate the use of remote sensing analyses and Markov models in developing a dynamic monitoring framework for decision-making around forest management and conservation. Furthermore, in providing the first assessment of indigenous forest loss within the EMA, the study also provides valuable insight into the usefulness of mapping present and future vegetation, specifically forest cover within a rapidly developing city through land use analysis.